Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is positioned in a rapidly growing phase with a unique brand value and potential for further growth in the high-end cosmetics market, which is currently scarce for domestic brands [1][2] - The company is expected to enhance its market share in the high-end beauty segment, leveraging its understanding of Chinese consumers and flexible supply chains [2] - The company has strong online sales performance, with significant growth in GMV on platforms like Taobao and Douyin, indicating potential for continued expansion [3] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The target price is set at HKD 99.35, reflecting a significant upside from the current price of HKD 84.25 [8][9] Market Position and Growth Potential - The high-end beauty market in China is dominated by foreign brands, but the company is well-positioned to become a leading domestic alternative as the trend of "Guochao" (national tide) rises [2] - As of January 2025, the company has 389 offline counters in high-end department stores, with a recent entry into Beijing's SKP, enhancing its premium brand image [2] Online and Offline Sales Strategy - The company achieved a GMV of RMB 1.4 billion and RMB 1.2 billion on Taobao and Douyin respectively in 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 40% and 70% [3] - The average sales per square meter for the company's counters is RMB 14,000, indicating room for improvement compared to international brands [3] Product and Brand Expansion - The company plans to extend its product line with 13 new fragrances already registered, aiming to capture the growing demand among younger consumers [4] - There is potential for expanding the brand matrix and pursuing overseas markets, with approximately 15% of IPO proceeds earmarked for international expansion [4] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 8.67 billion, RMB 11.47 billion, and RMB 15.09 billion for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively [5] - The expected revenue and EPS CAGR from 2024 to 2026 is 35% and 32%, significantly higher than comparable companies [5]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][81]. Core Insights - The company, MAOGEPING, is a leading high-end beauty group in China, being the only domestic company among the top ten high-end beauty groups in the market [2][12]. - The company has demonstrated rapid growth, with a net profit CAGR of 41.4% from 2021 to 2023, outpacing revenue growth, and maintaining a steady increase in net profit margin [2][19]. - The flagship brand MAOGEPING, launched in 2000, is the first high-end beauty brand in China and ranks as the twelfth largest high-end beauty brand by retail sales in 2023 [2][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - MAOGEPING has been deeply engaged in the beauty industry for 25 years and has established itself as a leading high-end beauty group in China [2][12]. - The company operates two main brands: MAOGEPING and Zhi Ai Zhong Sheng, targeting different market segments [17][18]. Business Operations - The company has 372 self-operated counters across China, ranking second among domestic beauty brands, and has a strong online presence with significant revenue and repurchase rates exceeding industry averages [3][19]. - The product portfolio includes a diverse range of cosmetics, skincare, and newly developed perfumes, with a focus on innovation and consumer demand [3][67]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue grew from 15.8 billion yuan in 2021 to 28.9 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 35.3% [19]. - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 39.1 billion yuan, 51.1 billion yuan, and 65.1 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 35.6%, 30.7%, and 27.2% [81][82]. Market Potential - The Chinese beauty market is expanding, with the color cosmetics market size reaching 116.8 billion yuan in 2023, and significant growth potential remains compared to per capita spending in countries like Japan and South Korea [30][31]. - The high-end beauty market in China is projected to grow from 1,942 billion yuan in 2023 to 3,110 billion yuan by 2028, indicating a robust growth trajectory [43][44]. Future Growth Drivers - The brand leverages the IP of its founder, MAO Ge Ping, enhancing brand differentiation and consumer appeal through a unique blend of light and shadow aesthetics with Eastern cultural elements [51][53]. - The company is expanding its product lines, including a new perfume series launched in January 2025, to capture additional market segments [74][75].

Summary of the Conference Call on Mao Geping Company Overview - **Company Name**: Mao Geping - **Industry**: High-end cosmetics in China - **Market Position**: Recognized as a leading domestic high-end beauty brand, Mao Geping is the only Chinese brand to penetrate the high-end market, representing a significant growth model for domestic cosmetics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Market Inclusion and Growth Potential - Mao Geping has been included in the Hang Seng Composite Index, which is expected to attract incremental capital flows [1]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately HKD 35 billion, with strong interest from domestic investors regarding future stock performance post-inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1]. Historical Development and Brand Positioning - Established in 2000, Mao Geping has over 20 years of development, with significant milestones including the opening of its first offline counter in 2003 and launching its Tmall flagship store in 2018 [3][4]. - The brand has transitioned from a focus on color cosmetics to a more balanced portfolio that includes skincare and fragrance, with skincare now contributing over 40% of revenue [5][8]. Financial Performance - For 2023, the company reported revenues of RMB 2.886 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.3% from 2021 to 2023. Net profit for the same period was RMB 660 million, with a CAGR of 41.6% [5][6]. - Projections for 2024 suggest revenues could reach around RMB 4 billion, with net profits of approximately RMB 850 million, maintaining a growth rate of around 30% [6]. Product and Revenue Structure - The primary revenue source is product sales, with the Mao Geping brand being the core focus, contributing significantly to overall sales [6][7]. - The product mix is approximately 56.2% color cosmetics and 40.2% skincare, with skincare's contribution increasing significantly over the past three years [7][8]. Channel Strategy - The company has a balanced online and offline channel strategy, with online sales accounting for approximately 42.4% of total revenue in 2023, expected to approach 50% in 2024 [12][19]. - Offline sales are primarily through self-operated counters, which provide a unique customer experience through trained beauty consultants [13][16]. Competitive Landscape - The high-end beauty market in China is dominated by foreign brands, with Mao Geping holding a 1.8% market share, ranking seventh [26]. - The high-end cosmetics market is projected to grow at a CAGR of around 10% from 2023 to 2028, indicating significant growth potential for Mao Geping [25][26]. Brand and Product Differentiation - Mao Geping's brand is characterized by its unique "light and shadow" aesthetic, which differentiates it from other brands in the same price range [28][29]. - The company has over 300 SKUs, with a strong focus on product quality and innovation, including popular items like the "Caviar Mask" and "Black Cream" [32][33]. Governance and Management - The company is family-owned, with the Mao family holding approximately 80% of the shares. The management structure is described as stable, with a clear division of responsibilities among family members [21][22]. - The CEO, who has been with the company since 2002, plays a crucial role in the company's operations and strategic direction [21]. Additional Important Insights - The overall beauty market in China is projected to reach RMB 579.8 billion in 2023, with skincare and color cosmetics markets expected to grow steadily [23][24]. - The company has successfully maintained growth in a challenging retail environment, attributed to its differentiated product offerings and customer service [14][16]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding Mao Geping's market position, financial performance, product strategy, and growth potential in the high-end cosmetics industry.

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - The company is a high-end domestic cosmetics group in China, founded by Wang Ping in 2000, and is recognized as a unique player in the high-end beauty market [3][25] - The brand emphasizes a unique aesthetic philosophy and has a strong brand value and positioning in the high-end segment [3][5] Core Industry Insights - The high-end beauty market is experiencing growth, with the company positioned to capture market share as consumer preferences shift towards domestic brands [22][30] - The overall cosmetics market in China is significantly larger in skincare than in color cosmetics, with color cosmetics only accounting for one-fourth of the skincare market [29] Key Points from the Conference Call Brand and Product Development - The company has a comprehensive product lineup with 337 SKUs in color cosmetics and 50 in skincare, indicating a strong product diversity [6][10] - The brand focuses on high-quality ingredients and innovative packaging, which enhances the luxury experience for consumers [14][15] - The company has successfully launched new products, such as a lip glaze and a perfume series, which have shown promising sales figures [8][9] Sales and Distribution Channels - The company has nearly 400 counters, placing it in the top tier of the industry, with an average annual revenue of 4-5 million per counter for those open for over two years [10][11] - Online sales are growing rapidly, particularly on platforms like Douyin and Tmall, contributing significantly to overall revenue growth [11][35] - The company is expanding its presence in high-end retail locations, including department stores and shopping centers, to capture a broader customer base [10][33] Consumer Engagement and Experience - The brand emphasizes a strong customer service experience, with high staff training and engagement levels, leading to a high repurchase rate of nearly 20% [22][20] - The company has developed a unique business model that integrates online and offline channels, enhancing customer engagement and loyalty [28][34] Financial Performance and Projections - The company reported revenues of approximately 4 billion in the previous year, with projections of around 5.3 billion for the current year, reflecting a growth rate of about 30% [35][36] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, driven by both online and offline sales channels [35] Valuation and Market Position - The current PE ratio is estimated to be in the low 20s, with potential for valuation premium due to its unique market position and upcoming catalysts [36] - The company is recognized as a rare domestic player in the high-end beauty segment, which supports its valuation and growth potential [25][36] Additional Insights - The brand's focus on "slow beauty" aligns with current consumer trends favoring quality and sustainability over rapid product turnover [17] - The company is leveraging its founder's influence and expertise in the beauty industry to drive product development and brand recognition [15][18] This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments discussed during the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic positioning within the high-end beauty market and its growth potential.

海外公司跟踪报告 | 非必需性消费 证券研究报告 | | | 基础数据 | 月 | 20 | 日收盘价（港 | 72.80 | 02 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元） | | | | | | | 总市值（亿港元） | | 356.86 | | | | 总股本（亿股） | | 4.90 | | | | | 来源：聚源，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 | | | 难以复制的毛戈平品牌，打造高端价格带的国货品牌标杆：高端品牌具有突出的品牌形 象，通常由名人或艺术家创立，并使用他们的名字命名。作为品牌创始人，毛戈平先生 创新性地将光影美学的精髓与东方美学的内核精神深度融合，打造差异化服务。2003 年，毛戈平公司在上海港汇恒隆广场设立第一个专柜，成为第一个在高端百货商店设立 专柜的高端国货化妆品集团。截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日，公司在全国 120 个城市共运营 372 个自营专柜。专柜配备有 2700 名美妆顾问，提供个性化的咨询及试妆服务。 相关研究 分析师：宋婧茹 S0190520050002 BQI321 songjingru@xyzq.com.cn 分析师： ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating that the stock is expected to outperform the relevant market index by more than 15% over the next 12 months [21]. Core Insights - The Chinese beauty market is expansive and fragmented, with a market size projected to grow from CNY 402.6 billion in 2018 to CNY 579.8 billion in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6%. It is expected to reach CNY 876.3 billion by 2028, with color cosmetics and skincare markets projected to reach CNY 175.2 billion and CNY 701.1 billion, respectively [4]. - The company, Maogeping, is positioned as a high-end domestic beauty brand, leveraging a unique blend of light and shadow aesthetics with Eastern beauty principles. It has established a strong brand image and operates 372 self-operated counters across 120 cities in China, supported by 2,700 beauty consultants [4][5]. - The pricing strategy for Maogeping's products places them in a competitive range, with color cosmetics priced between CNY 150-180 and skincare products between CNY 300-350, strategically positioned above domestic brands but below foreign brands [5]. - The company has shown robust sales growth, with revenue increasing from CNY 1.58 billion in 2021 to CNY 2.89 billion in 2023, representing a CAGR of 35.3%. Net profit also rose significantly, with a CAGR of 41.6% [6][7]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Chinese beauty market is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 8.6% expected from 2023 to 2028, driven by increasing consumer demand for high-quality beauty products [4]. Company Positioning - Maogeping has established itself as a leader in the high-end domestic beauty segment, with a unique brand identity and a strong retail presence [4][5]. Product Performance - The company has a diverse product line with 387 SKUs, including 337 color cosmetics and 50 skincare products. The color cosmetics segment saw a sales volume of 9.72 million units in 2023, a 52.37% increase year-on-year [5]. Financial Performance - Revenue growth from CNY 1.58 billion in 2021 to CNY 2.89 billion in 2023, with a net profit increase from CNY 331 million to CNY 663 million during the same period, indicates strong financial health [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Mao Geping [6] Core Insights - Mao Geping is a rare high-end domestic beauty brand that leverages the unique "light and shadow aesthetics" concept to develop makeup and skincare products, creating a competitive moat through offline experiential makeup services. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at 893 million, 1.172 billion, and 1.467 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.82, 2.39, and 2.99 CNY, leading to a PE ratio of 37.4, 28.5, and 22.7 times [6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Mao Geping is a high-end domestic beauty brand with over 20 years of industry experience, evolving through three stages: initial brand creation (2000-2007), market deepening (2008-2018), and rapid expansion (2019-present) [23] - The company has established a strong brand presence and diversified its product offerings, including makeup, skincare, and professional training services [23][24] Financial Performance - The company has shown consistent high double-digit growth in revenue and profit, with 2022-2024H1 revenues of 1.829 billion, 2.886 billion, and 1.972 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.0%, 57.8%, and 41.0% respectively. Net profits for the same period were 338 million, 639 million, and 492 million CNY, with growth rates of 6.4%, 88.0%, and 41.0% [31] - The gross margin has remained high, averaging around 84.8% from 2022 to 2024H1, while the net margin has improved, reaching 25.0% in 2024H1 [31][36] Market Growth Potential - The Chinese makeup market is still developing, with a significant gap compared to overseas markets. The market size for makeup in China was approximately 5,798 billion CNY in 2023, with makeup accounting for only about 20.1% of the beauty market [46] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the high-end makeup segment, as domestic brands like Mao Geping are positioned to capture market share amid rising consumer interest in local products [46][49] Competitive Advantages - Mao Geping's unique business model combines online and offline channels, with a strong focus on high-end department store sales and a growing online presence. The company has established a solid customer base through its experiential services and high-quality products [7][41] - The brand's core strengths include its professional IP, aesthetic design, and high-end channel development, which create a competitive barrier in the market [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Mao Geping [6] Core Insights - Mao Geping is a rare high-end domestic beauty brand that leverages the unique "light and shadow aesthetics" concept developed by its founder to create makeup and skincare products, establishing a competitive moat through offline experiential makeup services. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at 0.893 billion, 1.172 billion, and 1.467 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.82, 2.39, and 2.99 CNY, leading to a PE ratio of 37.4, 28.5, and 22.7 times [6] Company Overview - Mao Geping is positioned as a high-end domestic beauty brand with over 20 years of industry experience, evolving through three stages: initial brand creation (2000-2007), market deepening (2008-2018), and rapid expansion (2019-present) [24] - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the Mao family holding a significant portion of shares, ensuring stability and continuity in management [27][30] Financial Performance - The company has shown consistent high double-digit growth in revenue and profit, with 2022-2024H1 revenues of 1.829 billion, 2.886 billion, and 1.972 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.0%, 57.8%, and 41.0% respectively. The net profits for the same period were 0.338 billion, 0.639 billion, and 0.492 billion CNY, with growth rates of 6.4%, 88.0%, and 41.0% [32] - The gross margin has remained high, with figures of 83.4%, 83.8%, 84.8%, and 84.8% from 2021 to 2024H1, indicating strong profitability [36] Market Growth Potential - The Chinese makeup market is still developing, with a significant gap compared to overseas markets. The domestic market size was approximately 579.8 billion CNY in 2023, with makeup accounting for only about 20.1% [49] - The report highlights the high barriers and stickiness of the facial makeup segment, suggesting that it is easier to defend than to penetrate [49] Competitive Advantages - Mao Geping's unique business model combines online and offline channels, supported by a strong founder IP and a well-established aesthetic design philosophy. The brand's focus on high-end retail channels and a robust membership base enhances its competitive edge [7][8] - The company has a diversified product line, with makeup contributing 55.1% and skincare 22.8% to total revenue in 2024H1, indicating a balanced growth strategy [24][26]

Summary of the Conference Call Company Overview - The conference call discusses **Mao Ge Ping**, a Hong Kong-listed beauty company founded by renowned makeup artist Mao Ge Ping, which has positioned itself in the high-end domestic beauty market amidst a trend of increasing consumer preference for high-cost performance products [1][9]. Industry Insights - The beauty industry is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a more mature stage, with leading companies like **Bolaia** and **Jushi Biological** showing significant growth [2][3]. - The cosmetics sector is divided into color cosmetics and skincare, with color cosmetics facing challenges due to the rapid turnover of popular products [3][4]. - The skincare market in China shows a competitive landscape, with domestic brands holding a 13.5% market share in the top 20 brands, while international brands hold 33% [7]. Key Points on Mao Ge Ping - Mao Ge Ping is unique in its ability to compete directly with international brands in the high-end segment, achieving a revenue of approximately **19.7 billion** CNY in the first half of the year, with expectations of similar performance in the second half [15][12]. - The company's gross margin is around **85%**, significantly higher than competitors like **Shangmei** and **Perfect Diary**, which range from **70% to 75%** [16]. - Revenue composition includes **55%** from color cosmetics and **41%** from skincare, aligning with international brands like **Estée Lauder** and **L'Oréal** [17][18]. Market Positioning and Strategy - Mao Ge Ping's brand strategy leverages its founder's reputation and expertise, allowing it to cater to both skincare and color cosmetics, thus raising its market ceiling [20][19]. - The company operates a dual-channel strategy with **19%** of revenue from offline sales and **47%** from online sales, primarily through its own platforms [20][21]. - The offline channel is expanding, with plans to open **30 to 40** new stores annually, aiming for **600** stores by **2030** [21]. Consumer Engagement and Services - Mao Ge Ping offers unique customer services, including free makeup sessions for members, enhancing customer loyalty and repeat purchases [25][26]. - The brand's marketing strategy includes targeting younger demographics through tailored product offerings and engaging customer experiences [24][28]. Financial Projections and Valuation - Future revenue projections estimate growth rates of **33%** and **25%** for the next two years, indicating a robust growth trajectory [32]. - The market is currently valuing Mao Ge Ping at **20 to 30 times** earnings, with potential for upward adjustments based on its growth prospects and market positioning [33][34]. Conclusion - Mao Ge Ping stands out in the beauty industry due to its high gross margins, strong brand positioning, and effective dual-channel strategy, making it a compelling investment opportunity in the high-end cosmetics market [38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company, Maogeping, is a rare high-end domestic beauty brand in China, leveraging the unique IP of national makeup master Maogeping. The brand covers both makeup and skincare categories, with a broad potential customer base and a commitment to long-term brand strength enhancement. The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.88 billion, 5.06 billion, and 6.29 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.5%, 30.3%, and 24.3% respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 880 million, 1.17 billion, and 1.46 billion yuan, with growth rates of 33.3%, 32.6%, and 24.7% respectively [3][4][12]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 2.886 billion yuan in 2023, with an expected increase to 3.882 billion yuan in 2024, 5.060 billion yuan in 2025, and 6.291 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 57.78%, 34.52%, 30.33%, and 24.33% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 662 million yuan in 2023 to 882 million yuan in 2024, 1.170 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.458 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 88.00%, 33.30%, 32.57%, and 24.66% respectively [4][5][12]. Business Model and Market Position - Maogeping's business model is unique, combining personal IP, a makeup school, and offline services. The company operates two major beauty brands, Maogeping and Ziai Zhongsheng, with a strong presence in both offline department stores and online platforms. The offline channel contributes significantly to revenue, with 372 self-operated counters nationwide, ranking second among all beauty brands in China [3][19][20]. Industry Overview - The beauty and personal care market in China is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a more mature stage, with overall market growth slowing from a CAGR of 11% (2015-2019) to 3% (2019-2023). The skincare segment remains dominant, accounting for 51% of the market, while the makeup segment represents 11% [29][30]. The high-end beauty market is growing faster than the mass market, with a CAGR of 15% compared to 4% for mass products [22][24]. Competitive Landscape - The high-end cosmetics market is primarily dominated by international brands, which hold a significant market share. However, domestic brands like Maogeping are gradually increasing their presence, with the market share of leading domestic skincare brands rising from 6.5% in 2014 to 13.5% in 2023 [22][31]. The report highlights that brand strength and emotional connection are critical barriers to entry in this competitive landscape [29].