Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Recent surge in gold prices, with London gold reaching nearly $3580 per ounce on September 3, 2025, after a four-month period of high volatility [12][10] - Under neutral assumptions, the gold price midpoint for the second half of the year is projected at $3627 per ounce, with an optimistic scenario suggesting a rise to $3816 per ounce [12][10] - Key drivers for the recent price increase include a shift in investment from long-term US and European bonds to gold due to concerns over debt risks, particularly in Europe [12][11] Group 2: International Beauty Market Trends - The global beauty market is expected to grow at a rate of 4.5% in 2024, down from 8% in 2023, with significant regional disparities [13][13] - The European market outperformed the global average with a 7.5% year-on-year growth, while the North Asia market saw a decline of 2% [13][13] - Major international beauty brands are adapting to the competitive landscape in China by embracing new online channels and local partnerships, leading to a slight recovery in market performance [13][13] Group 3: Fourth Paradigm Company Overview - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 68.52 billion, 88.19 billion, and 112.26 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 30%, 29%, and 27% respectively [17][17] - The company is expected to turn a profit by 2025, with net profits forecasted at 0.55 billion, 2.83 billion, and 5.68 billion yuan for the same period [17][17] - The company's strategy focuses on standardization, which is anticipated to drive rapid industry expansion and maintain long-term competitiveness [14][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the cosmetics and medical beauty sector, highlighting strong growth potential and investment opportunities in the industry [14][19]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown resilience, outperforming the market during the week of August 29 to September 5, 2025, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining only 0.8% [3][4]. - The transition to autumn skincare marks the beginning of a consumption peak for the sector, with significant sales events such as the Autumn Beauty Consumption Festival and Double 11 approaching, creating new investment opportunities [9][10]. - Major companies in the sector are optimistic about their performance in the second half of 2025, as indicated by a recent conference involving over ten beauty care companies [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The Shenwan Cosmetics Index remained stable, outperforming the Shenwan A Index by 1.4 percentage points, while the Shenwan Personal Care Index fell by 1.8%, underperforming the Shenwan A Index by 0.3 percentage points [3][4]. Key Company Reviews - **Mao Geping (1318HK)**: Reported a revenue of 2.59 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31%, with a net profit of 670 million yuan, up 36%. The color cosmetics segment saw a revenue of 1.42 billion yuan, while skincare generated 1.09 billion yuan, reflecting strong brand momentum [10][11]. - **Shangmei Co. (02145HK)**: Achieved a revenue of 4.108 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 17.3% increase, with a net profit of 556 million yuan, up 34.7%. The main brand, Han Shu, contributed significantly to growth, with a revenue of 3.344 billion yuan [16][17]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Shangmei Co., Porlaia, and Shanghai Jahwa, which have strong brand matrices and relatively low PE multiples. Other notable mentions are Marubi Biological and Mao Geping, which are positioned well to benefit from the rise of domestic beauty brands [10][19]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong R&D capabilities and product pipelines, particularly in the upstream medical beauty segment, with a recommendation for Aimeike [10][19]. Market Trends - The report notes a significant increase in online sales, with H1 2025 online revenue for Mao Geping reaching 1.297 billion yuan, a 39% year-on-year increase, marking a shift in consumer purchasing behavior towards online platforms [12][18]. - The overall cosmetics retail market showed a 4.5% growth in July 2025, indicating a robust recovery in consumer spending [23][26]. Strategic Developments - Porlaia's investment in Huazhi Xiao reflects a strategic move to enhance its multi-brand strategy and capitalize on the influence of Gen Z consumers [28]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, noting that domestic brands are increasingly capturing market share, with a notable shift in consumer perception from "value for money" to "quality choice" [32].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Mao Geping, is leveraging the growing young consumer demographic that values experience and emotional connection in purchasing decisions, leading to a strong performance in the Hong Kong new consumption sector [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Mao Geping achieved total revenue of 2.588 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, indicating continuous business expansion [2] - The company's net profit grew by 36.1% to 670 million RMB, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth, reflecting high-quality core business development [2] - The gross profit margin reached 84.2%, driven by high margins in core categories and optimized expenses, with makeup products at 82.7% and skincare products at 87.5% [2] Product Strategy - Mao Geping has established a robust product matrix that avoids reliance on single-hit products, focusing on long-cycle core items and rapid introduction of new products [3] - The makeup segment generated 1.422 billion RMB in revenue, accounting for 55.0% of total revenue, with strong performance from key products [3] - The skincare segment saw a revenue increase of 33.4% to 1.087 billion RMB, highlighting its role as a key growth driver [4] New Product Development - The company launched new skincare products that quickly gained traction, with the luxury caviar mask exceeding 600 million RMB in retail sales [4] - The introduction of fragrance products has opened new growth avenues, with two series generating over 10 million RMB in less than a month [5] Channel Strategy - Mao Geping's online sales reached 1.297 billion RMB, a 39.0% increase, representing 51.4% of total revenue, with high profitability in direct sales [7] - The offline channel generated 1.224 billion RMB, a 26.6% increase, with a focus on high-end retail locations and enhanced customer experience [8] International Expansion - The company has begun international expansion, achieving a 503.1% increase in overseas revenue, indicating a clear growth trend [9] Long-term Value Proposition - Mao Geping aims to redefine the value standards in high-end beauty, positioning itself as a leader in Chinese luxury brands with a focus on "Oriental aesthetics" [11]

Core Insights - The article highlights the growing influence of young consumers in driving new consumption trends, emphasizing their focus on experience, cost-effectiveness, and emotional value, which has positively impacted the Hong Kong stock market's new consumption sector [1] - The company, Mao Geping, stands out in the high-end domestic beauty market by leveraging "Oriental aesthetics" as its core strategy, focusing on multi-dimensional collaboration across product categories, channels, and profitability to build a sustainable value system [1][10] Financial Performance - Mao Geping reported a total revenue of 2.588 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 31.3%, indicating continuous business expansion [2] - The company's net profit increased by 36.1% to 670 million RMB, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth, reflecting high-quality core business development [2] - The gross profit margin reached 84.2%, driven by high margins in core categories and optimized expenses, with makeup products achieving a gross margin of 82.7% and skincare products at 87.5% [2] Product Strategy - Mao Geping has established a robust product matrix that avoids reliance on single-hit products, instead focusing on a combination of long-cycle core products and rapid introduction of new items [3] - The makeup category remains a stronghold, generating 1.422 billion RMB in revenue, accounting for 55.0% of total revenue, with key products achieving significant sales [3][4] - The skincare segment has seen explosive growth, contributing 1.087 billion RMB in revenue, with key products like the luxury caviar mask and black cream driving sales [4] Channel Strategy - The company has effectively integrated online and offline channels, achieving 1.297 billion RMB in online revenue, a 39.0% increase, and 1.224 billion RMB in offline revenue, a 26.6% increase [7][8] - Online channels account for 51.4% of total revenue, with high profitability maintained across direct sales and distributor channels [7] - The offline strategy focuses on high-end experiences, with over 400 self-operated counters and a strong presence in premium shopping areas, enhancing brand image and customer loyalty [8] International Expansion - Mao Geping has begun international expansion, notably through a partnership with Sephora, resulting in a 503.1% increase in overseas revenue [9] - The establishment of a research center in Hangzhou and plans for further international development aim to position Mao Geping as a representative of high-end Chinese beauty in the global market [9] Long-term Value Proposition - The company is redefining the value standards in high-end beauty by emphasizing potential in product categories, cultural premium, and channel barriers, moving away from being a follower of international brands [10] - Mao Geping's appeal lies in its dual high growth in revenue and profit, alongside a sustainable and replicable long-term value system [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue and profit growth for the first half of 2025, aligning with previous forecasts, driven by robust sales in the cosmetics and skincare segments [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 670 million yuan, up 36.1% [1] - Adjusted net profit for H1 2025 was also 670 million yuan, reflecting a 32.0% year-on-year growth [1] - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 84.2%, a slight decrease of 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] Business Segments - Revenue breakdown for H1 2025 showed cosmetics at 1.42 billion yuan, skincare at 1.01 billion yuan, fragrance at 10 million yuan, and makeup training and sales at 70 million yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of +31.1% and +33.4% for cosmetics and skincare [1] - The gross margins for cosmetics, skincare, fragrance, and makeup training were 82.7%, 87.5%, 77.6%, and 62.9%, with declines in cosmetics and skincare margins of 0.9 and 0.2 percentage points respectively [1] Channel Performance - Online and offline channels generated revenues of 1.30 billion yuan and 1.22 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +39.0% and +26.6% [2] - Online sales accounted for 51.4% of total revenue, while offline sales made up 48.6% [2] - Membership numbers reached 13.4 million online and 5.6 million offline, with online and offline repurchase rates of 24.1% and 30.3%, reflecting increases of 2.6 and 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [2] Product Development - The company launched new products in the cosmetics and skincare segments, with flagship items generating significant sales, including over 200 million yuan for luxury caviar cushion and soft-focus powder [3] - The newly introduced fragrance series "Guo Yun Ning Xiang" and "Wen Dao Dong Fang" expanded the product portfolio [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is recognized as a rare high-end beauty brand in China, with an upgraded profit forecast for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 1.20 billion, 1.52 billion, and 1.91 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of +36.6%, +26.7%, and +25.2% [3] - The latest closing price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 35, 28, and 22 for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impressive performance of the Chinese beauty brand Mao Geping, showcasing its strong growth in revenue and profit, which significantly outpaces the industry average, marking it as a leading example of domestic brands in the high-end beauty sector [3][4][5]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Mao Geping reported a revenue of 2.588 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, and a net profit of 670.4 million RMB, up 36.1%, both exceeding market expectations [5][6]. - The revenue breakdown shows that color cosmetics generated 1.422 billion RMB (55.0% of total revenue), skincare contributed 1.087 billion RMB (42.0%), and fragrance brought in 11.4 million RMB (0.4%) [6][7]. Product Categories - The company maintains a dual-core growth strategy with color cosmetics and skincare as the main revenue drivers, while the newly introduced fragrance category is beginning to establish itself [7][8]. - The average selling price of color cosmetics decreased from 163.8 RMB to 157.0 RMB, while sales volume increased by 36.8%, indicating a strategic price adjustment to maintain market share amid economic challenges [7][10]. Channel Strategy - Online sales surpassed offline for the first time, accounting for 51.4% of total revenue, with a significant year-on-year growth of 39.0% [10][11]. - The offline channel, while slightly declining in proportion, showed improved efficiency with same-store sales increasing by 17.9% [11][12]. Customer Engagement - The overall repurchase rate increased from 24.8% to 26.8%, with offline repurchase rates particularly strong at 30.3% [12][13]. - The company has invested in a large team of over 3,100 beauty consultants to enhance customer experience and loyalty [19][20]. Brand Positioning and Cultural Strategy - Mao Geping emphasizes "Oriental aesthetics" as its core brand philosophy, integrating traditional Chinese cultural elements with modern beauty technology [15][17]. - The brand's cultural narrative is reflected in its product lines, such as the "Guo Yun Ning Xiang" and "Wen Dao Dong Fang" fragrance series, which are designed to resonate with consumers' cultural confidence [15][17]. Future Outlook and Challenges - Despite strong performance, the company faces challenges in R&D investment, international expansion, and increasing market competition [22][23]. - Plans for a self-owned production base and a focus on high-margin skincare products indicate a strategic direction for future growth [22][23].

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·美容护理 毛戈平（01318.HK） 2025 年半年报点评：25H1 归母净利同比 +36.1%，产品矩阵推新升级带动增长 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2,886 | 3,885 | 5,151 | 6,523 | 8,161 | | 同比(%) | 57.78 | 34.61 | 32.60 | 26.63 | 25.12 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 661.93 | 880.61 | 1,202.82 | 1,523.81 | 1,908.32 | | 同比(%) | 88.00 | 33.04 | 36.59 | 26.69 | 25.23 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.35 | 1.80 | 2.45 | 3.11 | 3.89 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 63.38 | 47.64 | 34.88 | 27.53 | 21. ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite strong performance in revenue and profit, the stock price of the domestic beauty brand Mao Geping has declined significantly, indicating a disconnect between financial results and market valuation [1][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Mao Geping reported revenue of 2.588 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.3% [1] - Gross profit reached approximately 2.179 billion yuan, up 30.25% year-on-year [1] - Net profit was 670 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 36.1% compared to the previous year [1] - The increase in revenue was attributed to a rise in product sales across online, offline, and overseas channels, supported by a gross margin exceeding 80% [1] Product Sales Breakdown - Makeup and skincare products remain the main sales drivers, with makeup revenue at 1.422 billion yuan, a 31.1% increase, accounting for over 54.95% of total revenue [2] - Skincare sales grew by 33.4% year-on-year, reaching 1.087 billion yuan, with the luxury caviar mask being the top-selling item at over 600 million yuan [2] - The average selling price of makeup products decreased by 4.1% to 157 yuan per item due to bulk purchasing discounts [2] New Product Launches - Mao Geping entered the fragrance market with the launch of 13 "Wen Dao Dong Fang" series perfumes in late June, generating approximately 11.41 million yuan in revenue from 35,400 units sold [3] - The revenue from makeup artistry training and related sales reached 67.31 million yuan, but this segment saw a year-on-year decline of 5.82% [3] Margin Analysis - The gross margin for makeup products decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 82.7%, while skincare margins fell by 0.2 percentage points to 87.5% [5] - The gross margin for makeup artistry training dropped significantly by 9.5 percentage points to 62.9%, attributed to increased personnel costs from expanding the teaching staff [6] Stock Price Trends - Mao Geping's stock price peaked at 130.6 HKD per share in June but has since fallen to 94.35 HKD, a decline of nearly 30% [1][7] - The current price reflects a dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio close to 50, which is considered high compared to peers like Proya [7] - The limited market size for makeup products and the lack of a clear "second growth curve" contribute to concerns about future growth potential [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong performance in the first half of 2025, with significant revenue and profit growth, indicating a positive outlook for the business. Group 1: Overall Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.59 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 31% [1] - Net profit for H1 2025 reached 670 million yuan, up 36% year-on-year [1] - Gross margin stood at 84.2%, slightly down by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, while net margin improved to 25.9%, up 0.9 percentage points [1] Group 2: Segment Performance - Makeup segment revenue in H1 2025 was 1.42 billion yuan, growing by 31.1% year-on-year, driven by strong sales of key products [2] - Skincare segment revenue reached 1.09 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 33.4%, supported by high-performing products [2] - Fragrance segment generated revenue of 11.41 million yuan, showing strong performance from the "Wen Dao Dong Fang" series [2] - Makeup training revenue declined by 5.9% year-on-year to 67.31 million yuan [2] Group 3: Channel Performance - Offline revenue in H1 2025 was 1.224 billion yuan, up 26.6% year-on-year, with a total of 437 stores [3] - Online revenue reached 1.297 billion yuan, growing by 39% year-on-year, accounting for 51.4% of total revenue [3] - The company has 19 million members, a 53% increase year-on-year, with a repurchase rate of 26.8% [3] Group 4: Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on product innovation and international expansion, with new skincare and makeup lines launched in mid-2025 [3] - Plans for a research and development center in Hangzhou by the end of 2026 aim to support product diversification and market penetration [3] - The company is prioritizing entry into European and Asia-Pacific markets with localized teams and high-end channels [3] Group 5: Brand Positioning - The company is positioned as a leading domestic beauty brand, focusing on the mid-to-high-end makeup segment [4] - Strong brand premium and unique positioning in Oriental aesthetics contribute to long-term growth potential [4] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.184 billion, 1.542 billion, and 1.953 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 37, 29, and 23 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Mao Geping, reported a strong revenue growth of 31.3% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, but the growth rate has slowed compared to over 40% in the same period of 2024 [1][4]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 2.588 billion yuan, with a net profit of 670 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 36.1% [1]. - The overall gross margin was 84.2%, showing a slight decline compared to the same period last year [1]. - Product sales remained the core driver of performance, generating 2.521 billion yuan in revenue, a 32.7% increase year-on-year, accounting for 97.4% of total revenue [4]. Market Expansion - The company has entered the fragrance market, launching two high-end perfume series, which achieved sales of 35,000 units in just over a month, contributing 11.41 million yuan to total sales [6]. - International sales saw a significant increase of 503.1% year-on-year, although they still represent a small portion of total revenue at only 0.05% [4]. Sales Channels - Online and offline sales were relatively balanced, with cosmetic sales of 1.224 billion yuan online and 1.297 billion yuan offline, reflecting year-on-year growth of 26.6% and 39.0%, respectively [5]. - The company has established over 405 self-operated counters and 32 distributor counters across more than 120 cities in China [5]. Industry Context - The overall growth of the Chinese beauty market is slowing, with high-end and differentiated products becoming the focus of competition [7]. - The fragrance market is seen as a key growth area, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 15% from 2018 to 2023, indicating significant potential for expansion [6][7]. - The company aims to develop a second growth curve through its fragrance and international market strategies, which are crucial for its future development [8].