每经AI快讯，10月9日，港股创新药板块普遍回调，四环医药、诺诚健华跌超8%，科伦博泰生物跌超 6%，信达生物跌超5%。 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese immune checkpoint inhibitor industry is rapidly developing, with a projected market size of approximately 52.734 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 44.14% [1][4][8] - The primary driver of this growth is the innovative therapeutic mechanism of immune checkpoint inhibitors, which reactivate the immune system to identify and attack tumor cells, providing revolutionary treatment options for cancer patients with limited traditional therapies [1][4] Industry Overview - Immune checkpoint inhibitors enhance the immune system's ability to attack cancer cells by blocking immune checkpoint proteins, which are used by tumor cells to evade immune responses [2][5] - The industry has evolved through three stages: initiation, rapid development, and mature expansion, with significant policy support and market entry of domestic products since 2018 [3][4] Market Size - The immune checkpoint inhibitor market in China is expected to reach approximately 52.734 billion yuan in 2024, with a significant increase in clinical application driving market demand [1][8] Key Companies - Leading companies in the industry include Junshi Biosciences, Hengrui Medicine, Innovent Biologics, and BeiGene, which collectively hold over half of the market share [8] - Junshi Biosciences' core product, Toripalimab, has been approved for 12 indications and is the first domestic PD-1 inhibitor to receive FDA approval for kidney cancer treatment [9] - Akeso's dual antibody technology has led to significant advancements, with its PD-1/CTLA-4 dual antibody achieving notable efficacy in cervical cancer [11] Industry Development Trends 1. Continuous technological innovation is driving breakthroughs in precision treatment and combination therapies, with dual antibodies and ADCs becoming more prominent [12] 2. Market expansion and the shift of indications towards early-stage treatments are accelerating internationalization, with several domestic products gaining traction in overseas markets [13] 3. Policy and regulatory developments are promoting industry standardization, with support for new biological agents and reforms in medical insurance payment methods [13]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2025年9月30日 | | | | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | | | | 公司名稱: | 信達生物製藥 | | | | | | 呈交日期: | 2025年10月8日 | | | | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | | | | | | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01801 | 說明 | 普通股 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 5,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.00001 | USD | | 50,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) ...

Core Insights - The public fund industry has experienced a fruitful year in the structural bull market, with active equity funds making a significant comeback, particularly supported by the AI computing and innovative pharmaceutical sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - A total of 53 funds have achieved over 100% returns year-to-date as of September 30, with 42 of these being active equity funds, showcasing the fund managers' effective strategies in high-growth sectors [2][4]. - The top-performing fund, managed by Ren Jie, achieved a return of 194.49%, heavily investing in the overseas computing industry chain, with significant contributions from stocks like Shenghong Technology, which surged 581% this year [2][3]. - Other notable funds include Zhang Wei's fund with a 155.09% return, focusing on Hong Kong's innovative pharmaceuticals, and Feng Ludan's fund with a 140.86% return, both capitalizing on the AI industry chain [3]. Group 2: Commodity Performance - Gold ETFs have emerged as the standout performers in the commodity fund sector, with all 14 gold ETFs showing gains exceeding 40% year-to-date, driven by rising international gold prices [5][6]. - The highest-performing gold ETFs, managed by Zhao Xu and Rong Ying, reported returns of 41.48% and 41.47%, respectively, reflecting strong long-term investment value [5][6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Looking ahead to Q4, several fund companies suggest maintaining a focus on growth sectors while also considering cyclical and consumer stocks, as the market has already seen significant gains [7][8]. - The ongoing AI technology innovation is expected to provide a premium valuation for related assets, despite potential short-term volatility [8][9]. - The overall market sentiment remains bullish, with continued optimism for emerging technologies and cyclical financial sectors, particularly in the context of the "anti-involution" policies that may enhance competition in the renewable energy sector [9].

Core Points - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.45% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.66% during the midday close [1] - Semiconductor products and equipment, as well as metals and mining sectors, showed significant gains, while passenger airlines and construction products sectors experienced notable declines [1] Individual Stocks Performance - Zijin Mining International surged by 12.02%, followed by SMIC with a 9.3% increase, and Kuaishou-W rising by 6.56% [1] - Other notable gainers include Huahong Semiconductor up by 5.44%, Hengrui Medicine up by 5.29%, and Xinda Biopharmaceuticals up by 4.77% [1] - Conversely, Beike-W fell by 6.21% and Yihua Tong dropped by 6.42% [1] - MIRXES-B saw a significant increase of 13.52%, while Tianqi Lithium rose by 13.04% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the collaboration between China and the US in innovation is expected to continue, with a recovery in domestic innovation and R&D demand in China [1][2] - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 74.0% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 37.3% [1] - The price for experimental monkeys, essential for innovative drug R&D, has risen from approximately 85,000 yuan in mid-2024 to about 90,000 yuan [1] Group 2 - China's rich pool of engineers and scientists, along with efficient and cost-effective clinical trials and drug manufacturing capabilities, are seen as core competitive advantages for pharmaceutical innovation [2] - The impact of the US imposing tariffs on innovative drugs is expected to be limited for the CXO sector, as many multinational pharmaceutical companies already have plans to build factories in the US [2] - Future growth in innovative drugs is anticipated to be driven by overseas partners pushing clinical development for licensed pipelines [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the collaboration between China and the US in innovation is expected to continue, with a recovery in domestic innovation and R&D demand in China [1][2] - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 74.0% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 37.3% [1] - The price for experimental monkeys, essential for innovative drug R&D, has risen from approximately 85,000 yuan in mid-2024 to about 90,000 yuan [1] Group 2 - The US is expected to impose tariffs on innovative drugs, but the impact on the CXO sector is anticipated to be limited [2] - Trump's announcement on September 25 states that unless pharmaceutical companies are building factories in the US, patented drugs will face a 100% tariff starting October 1 [2] - The continuous upward momentum for innovative drugs is expected to primarily come from overseas partners pushing clinical developments for authorized pipelines [2]

Core Viewpoint - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 74.0% year-to-date, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 37.3% [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The recovery in capital market financing and the increase in overseas trading scale for innovative drugs have led to a rebound in domestic innovative drug research and development demand [1] - The CXO industry is expected to see performance recovery in the second half of the year due to the impact of U.S. interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Regulatory Impact - The anticipated increase in tariffs on innovative drugs by the U.S. is expected to have a limited impact on the CXO sector [1] - Many multinational pharmaceutical companies already have plans to establish factories in the U.S., which may mitigate potential negative effects [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing upward momentum for innovative drugs is expected to primarily come from overseas partners driving clinical progress for authorized pipelines [1] - There is optimism regarding valuation recovery opportunities in consumer healthcare, with recommendations to buy stocks in companies such as 3SBio, Junshi Biosciences, WuXi AppTec, Genscript Biotech, China National Pharmaceutical Group, and Innovent Biologics [1]

Core Conclusion - The investment logic for innovative drugs indicates that 2025 will mark a new recovery starting point for China's innovative drug industry after a deep adjustment, driven by a "triple resonance" of policy, industry, and capital [3][5][7]. Policy Insights - The Chinese government has explicitly supported innovative drugs in the 2025 Government Work Report, with subsequent policies aimed at high-quality development and commercial insurance for innovative drugs, clearing development obstacles across the entire chain [3][5]. Industry Dynamics - The internationalization process is accelerating, with the License-out model becoming a key path for value realization. In the first three quarters of 2025, upfront payments for licensing transactions reached $5.7 billion, surpassing the total for 2024 and accounting for 23.4% of the global total, indicating a significant enhancement in the global value chain position of Chinese innovative drug assets [5][7]. Capital Market Trends - After a deep adjustment from 2022 to 2024, industry valuations are returning to rational levels, with continuous improvement in the fundamentals of companies. In the first half of 2025, sales revenue from 17 commercialized innovative drug companies grew by 30% year-on-year, with leading companies like Innovent Biologics achieving profitability, marking a phase of value reassessment in the industry [7]. Market Size and Growth - The global innovative drug market is expected to reach $782.6 billion in 2024, accounting for 51.3% of the global pharmaceutical market, and is projected to grow to $1,119 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.4%, outpacing the overall pharmaceutical market growth of 6.4% [14]. Industry Structure - The innovative drug industry chain is divided into three main segments: upstream (raw materials and support), midstream (R&D and production), and downstream (distribution and payment), forming a complete value chain from scientific discovery to market application [19][21][24]. Business Model Transformation - Chinese innovative drug companies are transitioning from a single reliance on domestic market sales to a dual-driven international strategy of "domestic sales + License-out," marking a new phase where product strength and business model innovation are equally emphasized [28][29]. Revenue Sources - The revenue sources for innovative drug companies are diversifying, including domestic insurance sales, License-out income, and overseas market sales. In 2023, insurance spending on innovative drugs reached 90 billion yuan, maintaining rapid growth since 2019 [28][29][34]. BD Model Growth - The BD (Business Development) model has become a core engine for commercialization, with the total amount of BD transactions involving Chinese innovative drug companies skyrocketing from $5.06 billion in 2020 to $41.76 billion by August 2025, indicating a fundamental shift in the industry's business model [37][38]. Key Segments to Watch - The innovative drug industry includes six key segments: small molecule drugs, large molecule drugs, cell therapy, gene therapy, mRNA vaccines, and precision medicine, each deserving in-depth research [43].

Core Insights - The report by Zhongyou Securities focuses on the development of drugs in the autoimmune (self-immune) field, analyzing market demand, dual-antibody research priorities, and related investment targets [1][3]. Market Demand - The autoimmune field has a large patient base and long medication cycles, leading to the potential for blockbuster drugs, such as Dupilumab (Dupi), which has annual sales exceeding $10 billion. Key indications like atopic dermatitis (AD), asthma, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have millions of affected patients, with nearly 9 million patients accessible to biological agents [1][2]. - Existing therapies still have unmet needs, including the need for long-acting formulations to reduce dosing frequency and improve efficacy, as well as expanding the patient population currently limited by screening criteria [1][2]. Dual-Antibody Research Focus - From the perspective of type 2 inflammation mechanisms, targets can be categorized into upstream (e.g., TSLP, IL-33) and downstream (e.g., IL-4, IL-13). Single-target monoclonal antibodies have limited efficacy, making dual antibodies an important direction due to their synergistic effects. In respiratory diseases, the TSLP×IL-13 (or IL-4R) dual antibody shows significant advantages, with clinical data indicating better reductions in FeNO and eosinophils compared to single-target drugs [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the potential of TSLP dual antibodies, highlighting leading global progress from companies like Sanofi (Lunsekimig) and Pfizer (triple antibodies), as well as domestic advancements from companies like Kangnuo (CM512) and Innovent (IBI3002) [2][3]. Investment Targets - Key investment targets include Kangnuo (CM512), which is leading in domestic progress, Innovent (IBI3002), and Qianxin Biotechnology (QX030N), with a focus on dual-antibody development [3]. Conclusion - Overall, TSLP dual antibodies in the autoimmune field show significant potential and may become the next generation of blockbuster drugs, driven by high patient numbers and unmet medical needs [1][3].