Investment Rating - The report provides various investment ratings for companies in the consumer staples sector, with "Outperform" ratings for several companies including China Feihe, Haidilao, and China Resources Beer, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The overall cost indices for six categories of consumer goods showed mixed trends, indicating stability in the market. Spot cost indices for soft drinks, beer, instant noodles, dairy products, frozen foods, and seasonings changed by +0.97%, +0.51%, +0.26%, -0.13%, -0.44%, and -0.57% respectively, while futures cost indices changed by -1.08%, +1.06%, -1.06%, -1.67%, -0.78%, and -0.06% respectively [31][32][33][34][35][36][37]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index for beer increased by 0.51% month-on-month, while the futures index rose by 1.06%. Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have decreased by 3.71% and 4.95% respectively [12][32]. Seasonings - The spot cost index for seasonings decreased by 0.57% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 0.06%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -2.41% and -6.71% respectively [15][33]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index for dairy products decreased by 0.13% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 1.67%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -3.36% and -3.93% respectively [18][34]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles increased by 0.26% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 1.06%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -3.23% and -6.06% respectively [22][35]. Frozen Foods - The spot cost index for frozen foods decreased by 0.44% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 0.78%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -2.3% and -3.37% respectively [25][36]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks rose by 0.97% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 1.08%. Year-to-date, the indices have changed by -4.19% and -10.86% respectively [28][37].

Core Viewpoint - DBS maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876) due to low valuation and attractive dividend yield, while lowering the target price from HKD 9.6 to HKD 9.4 [1] Financial Forecasts - DBS has reduced Budweiser APAC's earnings forecast for FY2025 by 11% due to weak performance in the Chinese market [1] - Earnings forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 have been lowered by 5% each [1] Market Performance - The company is expected to face pressure on sales volume and average selling price in the Chinese market for Q3 this year [1] - Streamlined channel inventory is anticipated to pave the way for potential sales rebound in Q4 [1] - Budweiser APAC's performance in South Korea has been strong, supported by favorable brand and channel mix as well as price increase measures, leading to a significant rise in average selling price [1]

Core Viewpoint - DBS maintains a "Buy" rating on Budweiser APAC (01876) due to low valuation and attractive dividend yield, adjusting the target price from HKD 9.6 to HKD 9.4 [1] Financial Forecasts - The earnings forecast for Budweiser APAC for FY2025 has been reduced by 11% due to weak performance in the Chinese market [1] - Earnings forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 have each been lowered by 5% [1] Market Performance - Despite anticipated pressure on sales and average selling prices in the Chinese market for Q3, streamlined channel inventory is expected to pave the way for potential sales rebound in Q4 [1] - Budweiser APAC's performance in South Korea has been strong, supported by favorable brand and channel mix as well as price increase measures, leading to a significant rise in average selling prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite anticipated sales and average price pressures in the Chinese market for Budweiser APAC in Q3, streamlined channel inventory may pave the way for potential sales rebound in Q4 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Budweiser APAC's performance in South Korea is strong, driven by favorable brand and channel mix along with price increase measures, significantly supporting average price uplift [1] Group 2: Financial Forecasts - DBS has lowered its earnings forecast for Budweiser APAC by 11% for FY2025, and by 5% for FY2026 and FY2027 [1] Group 3: Investment Rating - Despite the lowered earnings forecasts, the company maintains a "Buy" rating due to low valuation and attractive dividend yield, with the target price adjusted from HKD 9.6 to HKD 9.4 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that Budweiser APAC's Q3 natural revenue and EBITDA will decline by 7% and 9% year-on-year, with a worsening trend compared to Q2's declines of 3.9% and 4.5% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Chinese market continues to drag down performance, with moderate demand affected by current anti-extravagance policies and intense promotions from delivery platforms [1] - The South Korean market also shows a slowdown in Q3 due to weakened consumer sentiment, although price increases in November 2024 and April 2025 are expected to provide support [1] Group 2: Future Projections - For 2025, Budweiser APAC's sales and EBITDA are forecasted to decline by 4.7% and 5.7% year-on-year, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.5% and 6.5% from 2025 to 2027, excluding exchange rate factors [1] - The company is expected to increase its dividend payout ratio to 125% to maintain a total dividend of $750 million in 2025, implying a dividend yield of 5.5%, which provides downside support for the stock price [1] Group 3: Rating and Target Price - Morgan Stanley maintains a "Neutral" rating on Budweiser APAC, lowering the target price from HKD 9 to HKD 8.5 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded Budweiser APAC's target price by 5.6% from HKD 9 to HKD 8.5, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1] Financial Projections - The company’s EBITDA forecast has been reduced by 5-7%, with expected sales and EBITDA for 2025 projected to decline by 4.7% and 5.7% year-on-year, respectively [1] - For the period of 2025-2027, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5% for sales and 6.5% for EBITDA is anticipated, excluding foreign exchange effects [1] Dividend Expectations - The dividend payout ratio is expected to increase to 125% to maintain a total dividend of USD 750 million for 2025, which is consistent with 2024, resulting in an attractive dividend yield of 5.5 that may support the stock price [1] Market Performance Insights - In Q3 2025, organic revenue and EBITDA are expected to decline by 7% and 9% year-on-year, respectively, with a more significant drop compared to Q2 [1] - The Chinese market continues to be a drag due to anti-extravagance policies and promotional activities that have accelerated the overall market demand slump [1] - Despite a low base, EBITDA growth in the Chinese market is expected to turn positive in Q4 2025 [1] - The South Korean market is also experiencing a slowdown in Q3 2025 due to weak consumer sentiment, although price increases are providing some positive momentum that may continue into Q4 2025 [1]

小摩下调对该公司EBITDA预测5-7%后，预计百威亚太2025年的销售额/EBITDA将同比下降 4.7%/5.7%，2025-2027年期间实现4.5%/6.5%的复合年增长率（扣除外汇基本）。小摩预计其派息比率 将提高至125%，以维持2025年7.5亿美元的总股息（与2024年持平），这意味着5.5%的股息收益率将具 有吸引力，为股价下行提供支撑。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，下调百威亚太(01876)目标价5.6%，从9港元下调至8.5港元， 维持"中性"评级。 小摩预计，百威亚太2025年第三季度有机收入/EBITDA同比下降7%/9%， 跌幅高于第二季度。中国市 场仍然是个拖累，反奢靡政策以及外卖促销活动加速整体市场需求的低迷。鉴于基数较低，小摩预计中 国市场EBITDA增长将在2025年第四季转正。由于消费情绪疲软，韩国市场2025年第三季也出现放缓。 然而，价格上升带来的利好对增长有帮助，这种势头或持续到2025年第四季。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded Budweiser APAC's earnings and sales forecasts due to challenging market conditions, particularly weak beer demand in China during Q3, affecting its premium and super-premium beer categories [1][2]. Summary by Category Earnings Forecast - Budweiser APAC's earnings forecast for 2025 has been reduced by 14% [1][2]. - The earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have also been lowered by 8% based on the low base from 2025 [1][2]. Sales and Operating Profit - Sales and operating profit forecasts for Budweiser APAC have been adjusted downwards by 7% and 13%, respectively [1][2]. Target Price and Rating - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been decreased from HKD 9.5 to HKD 9.3, while the rating remains "Overweight" [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded Budweiser APAC's (01876) 2025 earnings forecast by 14% due to ongoing challenging market conditions, particularly in China where beer demand remains weak in Q3 [1] Financial Projections - Sales and operating profit forecasts have been reduced by 7% and 13% respectively, reflecting the impact of weak demand on the company's premium and super-premium beer categories [1] - The earnings forecast for 2026 to 2027 has been adjusted downwards by 8% from the low base of 2025 [1] Target Price and Rating - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been lowered from HKD 9.5 to HKD 9.3, while maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Budweiser APAC (01876) is expected to release its Q3 2025 earnings on October 30, with anticipated further slowdown in the Chinese market due to luxury consumption policies and the impact of food delivery services on online consumption [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The third quarter in China is expected to see a decline compared to Q2, influenced by anti-luxury policies and significant online consumption drag from food delivery services [1] - Budweiser has high exposure in the on-trade channel, which is expected to be affected by ongoing destocking pressures impacting sales and brand mix [1] - The short-term EBITDA pressure in the Chinese market is anticipated to increase [1] Group 2: Sales and Profitability - Goldman Sachs forecasts weak sales in Q3 2025 for Budweiser APAC in China and South Korea, partially offset by strong momentum in India and favorable average selling prices in South Korea [1] - The Chinese market is facing profit margin pressures due to policy headwinds [1] - The firm updated its foreign exchange impact on sales, predicting a 12.6% decline in organic revenue and a 15.8% drop in normalized EBITDA for Q3 [1] - The net profit for Q3 is expected to be $158 million, down from $201 million in Q3 2024 [1] Group 3: Full Year Outlook - For the full year 2025, Budweiser APAC is expected to see a 2.1% growth in organic EBITDA in East Asia driven by average selling price increases, favorable brand and channel mix, and cost efficiencies [1] - In West Asia, organic EBITDA is projected to decline by 11% year-on-year due to ongoing operational leverage decline and channel mix offsetting cost tailwinds [1]