Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that Budweiser APAC's Q3 natural revenue and EBITDA will decline by 7% and 9% year-on-year, with a worsening trend compared to Q2's declines of 3.9% and 4.5% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Chinese market continues to drag down performance, with moderate demand affected by current anti-extravagance policies and intense promotions from delivery platforms [1] - The South Korean market also shows a slowdown in Q3 due to weakened consumer sentiment, although price increases in November 2024 and April 2025 are expected to provide support [1] Group 2: Future Projections - For 2025, Budweiser APAC's sales and EBITDA are forecasted to decline by 4.7% and 5.7% year-on-year, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.5% and 6.5% from 2025 to 2027, excluding exchange rate factors [1] - The company is expected to increase its dividend payout ratio to 125% to maintain a total dividend of $750 million in 2025, implying a dividend yield of 5.5%, which provides downside support for the stock price [1] Group 3: Rating and Target Price - Morgan Stanley maintains a "Neutral" rating on Budweiser APAC, lowering the target price from HKD 9 to HKD 8.5 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded Budweiser APAC's target price by 5.6% from HKD 9 to HKD 8.5, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1] Financial Projections - The company’s EBITDA forecast has been reduced by 5-7%, with expected sales and EBITDA for 2025 projected to decline by 4.7% and 5.7% year-on-year, respectively [1] - For the period of 2025-2027, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5% for sales and 6.5% for EBITDA is anticipated, excluding foreign exchange effects [1] Dividend Expectations - The dividend payout ratio is expected to increase to 125% to maintain a total dividend of USD 750 million for 2025, which is consistent with 2024, resulting in an attractive dividend yield of 5.5 that may support the stock price [1] Market Performance Insights - In Q3 2025, organic revenue and EBITDA are expected to decline by 7% and 9% year-on-year, respectively, with a more significant drop compared to Q2 [1] - The Chinese market continues to be a drag due to anti-extravagance policies and promotional activities that have accelerated the overall market demand slump [1] - Despite a low base, EBITDA growth in the Chinese market is expected to turn positive in Q4 2025 [1] - The South Korean market is also experiencing a slowdown in Q3 2025 due to weak consumer sentiment, although price increases are providing some positive momentum that may continue into Q4 2025 [1]

小摩下调对该公司EBITDA预测5-7%后，预计百威亚太2025年的销售额/EBITDA将同比下降 4.7%/5.7%，2025-2027年期间实现4.5%/6.5%的复合年增长率（扣除外汇基本）。小摩预计其派息比率 将提高至125%，以维持2025年7.5亿美元的总股息（与2024年持平），这意味着5.5%的股息收益率将具 有吸引力，为股价下行提供支撑。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，下调百威亚太(01876)目标价5.6%，从9港元下调至8.5港元， 维持"中性"评级。 小摩预计，百威亚太2025年第三季度有机收入/EBITDA同比下降7%/9%， 跌幅高于第二季度。中国市 场仍然是个拖累，反奢靡政策以及外卖促销活动加速整体市场需求的低迷。鉴于基数较低，小摩预计中 国市场EBITDA增长将在2025年第四季转正。由于消费情绪疲软，韩国市场2025年第三季也出现放缓。 然而，价格上升带来的利好对增长有帮助，这种势头或持续到2025年第四季。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded Budweiser APAC's earnings and sales forecasts due to challenging market conditions, particularly weak beer demand in China during Q3, affecting its premium and super-premium beer categories [1][2]. Summary by Category Earnings Forecast - Budweiser APAC's earnings forecast for 2025 has been reduced by 14% [1][2]. - The earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have also been lowered by 8% based on the low base from 2025 [1][2]. Sales and Operating Profit - Sales and operating profit forecasts for Budweiser APAC have been adjusted downwards by 7% and 13%, respectively [1][2]. Target Price and Rating - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been decreased from HKD 9.5 to HKD 9.3, while the rating remains "Overweight" [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded Budweiser APAC's (01876) 2025 earnings forecast by 14% due to ongoing challenging market conditions, particularly in China where beer demand remains weak in Q3 [1] Financial Projections - Sales and operating profit forecasts have been reduced by 7% and 13% respectively, reflecting the impact of weak demand on the company's premium and super-premium beer categories [1] - The earnings forecast for 2026 to 2027 has been adjusted downwards by 8% from the low base of 2025 [1] Target Price and Rating - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been lowered from HKD 9.5 to HKD 9.3, while maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Budweiser APAC (01876) is expected to release its Q3 2025 earnings on October 30, with anticipated further slowdown in the Chinese market due to luxury consumption policies and the impact of food delivery services on online consumption [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The third quarter in China is expected to see a decline compared to Q2, influenced by anti-luxury policies and significant online consumption drag from food delivery services [1] - Budweiser has high exposure in the on-trade channel, which is expected to be affected by ongoing destocking pressures impacting sales and brand mix [1] - The short-term EBITDA pressure in the Chinese market is anticipated to increase [1] Group 2: Sales and Profitability - Goldman Sachs forecasts weak sales in Q3 2025 for Budweiser APAC in China and South Korea, partially offset by strong momentum in India and favorable average selling prices in South Korea [1] - The Chinese market is facing profit margin pressures due to policy headwinds [1] - The firm updated its foreign exchange impact on sales, predicting a 12.6% decline in organic revenue and a 15.8% drop in normalized EBITDA for Q3 [1] - The net profit for Q3 is expected to be $158 million, down from $201 million in Q3 2024 [1] Group 3: Full Year Outlook - For the full year 2025, Budweiser APAC is expected to see a 2.1% growth in organic EBITDA in East Asia driven by average selling price increases, favorable brand and channel mix, and cost efficiencies [1] - In West Asia, organic EBITDA is projected to decline by 11% year-on-year due to ongoing operational leverage decline and channel mix offsetting cost tailwinds [1]

2025全年展望，该行预计百威亚太在亚太东部在平均销售价格上调、有利的品牌和渠道组合转换以及成 本效益驱动下，有机EBITDA将增长2.1%。而亚太西部由于持续的营运杠杆下降和渠道组合转换抵消成 本顺风，预计有机EBITDA将同比下降11%。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，百威亚太(01876)将于10月30日发布2025年第三季度业绩。该行预 计百威亚太在中国市场第三季相较第二季度将进一步放缓，原因包括反奢华政策和补贴推动的食品外送 服务导致线上消费显著拖累，而百威在餐饮渠道on-trade(现场即时消费或即饮渠道)有较高曝光度。同 时，持续的去库存压力进一步影响销量和品牌组合，并料中国市场的短期EBITDA压力将更大。 高盛预计百威亚太2025年第三季中国和韩国销量疲软，部分被印度的强劲势头、韩国较好的平均销售价 格以及原材料成本顺风所抵消。当中，中国市场受政策逆风影响，利润率压力加剧。该行更新外汇对销 售的影响，预计集团第三季有机收入下降12.6%，Normalized EBITDA下降15.8%。以美元计，第三季度 报告净利润预计为1.58亿美元，相比2024年第三季度的2.01亿美元。 ...

高盛发表报告指，百威亚太将于10月30日发布2025年第三季业绩。该行预计百威亚太在中国市场第三季 相较第二季度将进一步放缓，持续的去库存压力进一步影响销量和品牌组合，并料中国市场的短期 EBITDA压力将更大。该行预计第三季中国和韩国销量疲软，部分被印度的强劲势头、韩国较好的平均 销售价格以及原材料成本顺风所抵消。 展望2025全年，该行预计百威亚太在亚太东部在平均销售价格上调、有利的品牌和渠道组合转换以及成 本效益驱动下，有机EBITDA将增长2.1%。而亚太西部由于持续的营运杠杆下降和渠道组合转换抵消成 本顺风，预计有机EBITDA将按年下降11%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has downgraded Budweiser APAC's 2025 earnings forecast by 14% due to ongoing challenging market conditions, particularly in China where beer demand remains weak, impacting the company's premium and super-premium beer categories [1] Group 1: Earnings and Sales Forecast - The sales and operating profit forecasts for Budweiser APAC have been reduced by 7% and 13% respectively, reflecting the continued inventory destocking situation [1] - The earnings forecast for 2026 to 2027 has been adjusted downwards by 8% from the low base of 2025 [1] Group 2: Target Price and Rating - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been lowered from HKD 9.5 to HKD 9.3 [1] - The rating for Budweiser APAC remains "Overweight" despite the downgrades [1]

Industry Environment - The white liquor industry is shifting its endorsement strategy from middle-aged male celebrities to younger, diverse stars like G.E.M. and Zhang Yixing, reflecting a trend towards a more youthful and lifestyle-oriented brand image [2][3] - The light bottle liquor market is experiencing a bifurcation, with traditional brands like Niulanshan facing significant revenue declines due to price competition, while high-quality products like Fenjiu's Guofen are in high demand, indicating a shift towards quality and brand strength in the market [4][5] - The upcoming 2025 China Open tennis tournament will feature enhanced spectator experiences and cultural integration, with Luzhou Laojiao as the exclusive partner, promoting Chinese liquor culture [5] - The high-end beer market is undergoing significant changes, with CR Beer surpassing Budweiser APAC in revenue, indicating the rise of local brands in the premium segment despite overall market contraction [6] - The banquet market is emerging as a new battleground for liquor companies, with several firms reporting double-digit growth in this segment as they adapt to changing consumer preferences [7] - Eight listed liquor companies reported direct sales revenue exceeding 640 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with Moutai and Wuliangye leading the market [8] - The past decade has seen significant changes in the regional liquor market, with notable growth among regional leaders while others struggle due to strategic missteps [9] Key Trends - The trend towards lower alcohol content in liquor is gaining traction, with companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao launching lower-alcohol products to attract younger consumers, and the low-alcohol market expected to grow significantly [11] - Regional liquor companies are leveraging local sports events for marketing, enhancing brand connection with consumers, although the effectiveness of such strategies remains to be seen [12] - The first China Liquor Market Prosperity Index was released, indicating a favorable outlook for online sales and low-alcohol products driving consumption [10] Company Dynamics - Songhe Liquor is upgrading its quality strategy with a commitment to long-term aging processes, aiming to enhance its market position [13] - The launch of "Dazhen·Zhenjiu" has seen strong initial sales, indicating a successful entry into the high-end liquor market through strategic partnerships and pricing control [14] - Gujing Gongjiu is integrating cultural elements into consumer experiences, showcasing the importance of cultural heritage in modern marketing strategies [15] - The "Jiuxiao Er" brand is focusing on immediate retail and digital transformation to enhance consumer engagement and market presence [14][19] - Yanghe's summer marketing campaign successfully connected the brand with consumer experiences through sports and cultural events, emphasizing the importance of experiential marketing [20] Emerging Opportunities - The introduction of herbal yellow wine "Bencao Bang" targets health-conscious consumers, indicating a trend towards health-oriented products in the liquor market [21] - A strategic partnership between Huajun Media and Bojiangfang aims to reshape the market for sauce-flavored liquor through quality certification and consumer engagement [22] - The launch of UMEET blueberry distilled liquor exemplifies the industry's shift towards catering to younger, health-conscious consumers with innovative products [24]