Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of Yihuatong by Xuyang Group represents a significant shift in the hydrogen energy sector, highlighting the challenges and potential collapse of the hydrogen energy bubble, while also signaling a return to rationality in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Yihuatong reported a revenue of 367 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decline of 54.21%, and a net loss of 453 million yuan, marking its fourth consecutive year of losses since its listing on the STAR Market [1][8]. - The company's financial indicators have seen substantial declines, with operating profit, total profit, and net profit attributable to shareholders dropping by 70.85%, 63.16%, and 86.35% respectively compared to the previous year [10]. - Despite a revenue increase from 629 million yuan in 2021 to 801 million yuan in 2023, the losses also grew from 146 million yuan to 243 million yuan, indicating a trend of increasing losses outpacing revenue growth [8][10]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The hydrogen fuel cell industry is experiencing a downturn, with production and sales of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in 2024 showing a decline of 10.4% and 12.6% year-on-year, breaking the previous growth trend since 2021 [3][4]. - The industry is facing significant financial pressures, with many companies reporting salary cuts, layoffs, and even bankruptcy, primarily due to difficulties in collecting receivables and a lack of new orders [4][9]. - The reliance on government subsidies and orders has exposed the fragility of the industry, as the market remains underdeveloped and the commercial viability of hydrogen fuel cells is still in its early stages [12]. Group 3: Acquisition Details - Xuyang Group will acquire Yihuatong's controlling stake by exchanging 100% equity of its hydrogen company and 550 million yuan in cash, which is seen as a lifeline for Yihuatong [1][4]. - The acquisition price reflects a significant discount, with shares priced at 18.53 yuan, approximately 23.52% lower than the last trading price of 24.23 yuan [8]. - This merger is viewed as a vertical integration strategy, allowing Yihuatong to cover hydrogen production and refueling, while Xuyang Group enters the fuel cell terminal market, creating a closed-loop ecosystem [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-B" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [1][9]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading producer and supplier of coke, with plans to expand into new materials and green hydrogen supply, leveraging its existing capabilities and market position [1][9]. - The acquisition of the Xuyang Research Institute for RMB 181 million is expected to enhance the company's operational stability and management efficiency, while also providing potential for capital appreciation through investment properties [2][4]. - The company aims to increase its coke production capacity to 30 million tons annually by 2025, with a current global market share of 1.8% and a domestic share of 2.5% [5][9]. - The chemical and new materials business is expanding, with the company being a major player in various chemical products, including being the largest producer of crude benzene and the second-largest producer of high-temperature coal tar [6][9]. - The hydrogen energy segment is developing a full industry chain, focusing on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, with plans to enhance hydrogen production and distribution capabilities [8][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a global leader in coke production, with a management capacity of 22 million tons, including self-built and operational management capacities [5]. - The company has a diversified chemical product line and is expanding into new materials, which is expected to drive future growth [6]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of RMB 46.07 billion in 2023, with a projected increase to RMB 49.72 billion in 2024 [11]. - The net profit for 2023 was RMB 860.81 million, with expectations of a decline in 2024 before recovering in subsequent years [11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 0.08 in 2024, increasing to RMB 0.15 by 2026 [9][11]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from the recovery of the coke market and the expansion of its new materials and hydrogen energy businesses [9]. - The focus on green hydrogen technology and the establishment of hydrogen production capabilities are expected to align with future clean energy trends [8][9].

Financial Performance - China Risun Group Limited reported significant growth in revenue, achieving a total of RMB 5.2 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 15%[2]. - The company reported a net income of RMB 800 million, a 12% increase compared to the same period last year[2]. - Revenue for the Reporting Period was RMB 25,208.8 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.0%[10]. - Profit attributable to owners for the Reporting Period was RMB 111.9 million, a decrease of approximately 84.4% year-on-year[10]. - Basic earnings per share for the Reporting Period was RMB 2.54 cents, down approximately 84.3% year-on-year[10]. - The Group recorded a net profit of RMB 133.5 million for the Reporting Period, representing a decrease of RMB 577.4 million or 81.2% compared to the net profit of RMB 710.9 million for the Last Period[81]. - Total revenue for the Reporting Period increased to RMB 25,208.8 million, up from RMB 20,829.9 million for the Last Period, representing a growth of 20.0%[61]. - The profit for the period included a net transfer to the safety fund of RMB 13,610, contributing to the overall financial stability[162]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the coke and coking chemicals manufacturing business rose by RMB 2,215.8 million or 29.2%, from RMB 7,595.3 million to RMB 9,811.1 million, primarily due to the consolidation of Risun China Gas[61]. - Revenue from the refined chemicals manufacturing business increased by RMB 1,766.4 million or 20.5%, from RMB 8,636.7 million to RMB 10,403.1 million, driven by higher average selling prices and increased sales volumes[62]. - Revenue from operation management services surged by RMB 1,931.6 million or 409.6%, from RMB 471.5 million to RMB 2,403.1 million, mainly due to new projects starting operations[63]. - Revenue from the trading business decreased by RMB 1,693.4 million or 41.0%, from RMB 4,126.4 million to RMB 2,432.8 million, attributed to lower selling prices and reduced business volume[65]. Cost and Profitability - Cost of sales for the Reporting Period increased to RMB 23,354.1 million, up from RMB 19,337.0 million for the Last Period[65]. - Total gross profit increased by RMB 361.6 million or 24.2% to RMB 1,854.6 million for the Reporting Period, with gross profit margin rising from 7.2% to 7.4%[67]. - Gross profit from refined chemicals manufacturing increased by RMB 210.0 million or 31.2% to RMB 883.3 million, with gross profit margin improving from 7.8% to 8.5%[69]. - The average selling price of coke decreased by RMB 322 per ton or 13.6%, from RMB 2,369 per ton to RMB 2,047 per ton during the Reporting Period[61]. Operational Efficiency - Operating profit margin improved to 18%, up from 15% in the previous year, reflecting better cost management and operational efficiency[2]. - The Group maintained three different production chains of refined chemicals, including high-purified hydrogen from coke-oven-gas byproducts[26]. - The Group's focus on operational and management reforms aims to enhance efficiency, profitability, and overall competitiveness by 2025[19]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is investing in new product development, with a budget allocation of RMB 300 million for R&D initiatives in sustainable technologies[2]. - China Risun Group Limited plans to expand its market presence by entering two new provinces in China, aiming for a 20% increase in market share by the end of the next fiscal year[2]. - The company is considering strategic acquisitions to enhance its product portfolio, with potential targets identified in the renewable energy sector[2]. - The Group is exploring trading opportunities in Europe and North America, aiming to establish offices for coke and refined chemicals trading[35]. Sustainability and Environmental Commitment - China Risun Group Limited emphasized its commitment to sustainability, with plans to reduce carbon emissions by 30% over the next five years[2]. - The Group is committed to supporting carbon neutrality policies, focusing on reducing carbon emissions and engaging in green practices[41]. - The Group is advancing digitalization initiatives in the coke and chemical industry, aiming for "green, agglomeration, intelligence, and high-end" development[42]. Financial Position and Liquidity - As of June 30, 2024, bank deposits, restricted bank balances, and cash amounted to approximately RMB 7,475.3 million, an increase of approximately RMB 3,845.4 million or 105.9% compared to RMB 3,629.9 million as of December 31, 2023[52]. - The gearing ratio as of June 30, 2024, was 2.1, up from 1.8 as of December 31, 2023[55]. - The debt to asset ratio as of June 30, 2024, was 75.8%, an increase from 73.1% as of December 31, 2023[55]. - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were RMB 3,636.7 million, up from RMB 2,595.9 million at the end of the last period[90]. Shareholder and Governance Matters - The Group's liquidity is primarily supported by cash flows from operating activities, bank loans, and other borrowings, with potential risks from decreased demand or pricing of products[86][88]. - The Company has adopted all code provisions of the Corporate Governance Code, except for the separation of roles between the chairman and chief executive officer[124]. - The Board currently consists of six executive Directors and two independent non-executive Directors following the resignation of Mr. Kang Woon on July 15, 2024[129]. - The Company has confirmed compliance with the Model Code for Securities Transactions by Directors during the Reporting Period[132].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 4.2, indicating a potential upside of 42% from the current price of HKD 2.96 [4][10]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached HKD 25.2 billion, representing a 21% increase year-on-year, while net profit significantly declined by 84% to HKD 130 million due to falling coke prices [1][2]. - The coke price has decreased by approximately 16% compared to the same period last year, leading to pressure on profits, although the company's competitive position is strengthening [1][10]. - The chemical business continues to grow, with revenue increasing by 20% to HKD 10.4 billion, driven by higher average selling prices and increased sales volumes of styrene [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the coke and coking business generated revenue of HKD 9.8 billion, up 29%, with a gross margin of 7.5% [1]. - The chemical segment's revenue was HKD 10.4 billion, with a gross margin of 8.5%, reflecting a 12.7% increase in pre-tax profit [1][2]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to HKD 420 million, HKD 820 million, and HKD 1.71 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 0.10, HKD 0.21, and HKD 0.43 [1][3]. Market Conditions - The coke market is currently experiencing a downturn, with weak demand leading to significant price drops, and the overall industry operating rate is declining [1][2]. - The company has successfully launched a 4.8 million-ton coking project in Indonesia, with 3.2 million tons already in production, and is expanding its international market presence [1][2]. Valuation Analysis - The report employs comparable company analysis and DCF methods for valuation, concluding a target price of HKD 4.2 based on a PE multiple of 20x, reflecting the long-term valuation despite current industry challenges [10][12]. - The DCF analysis estimates the company's market value at HKD 19 billion, supporting the target price of HKD 4.3 [10][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in its main business, with expected performance improvements in the future [4] - The company reported a revenue of 25.225 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.92%, but a net profit of 112 million, a year-on-year decrease of 84.37% [4] - The company is transitioning from a production-oriented leader to a service-oriented manufacturing model through operational management [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock has underperformed compared to the Hang Seng Index, with a relative decline of 23% [2] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a coke production of 4.7939 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 49.55%, with revenue from the coke business reaching 9.81 billion, up 29.2% [4] - The average coke price in H1 2024 was 2046.6 per ton, a decrease of 13.6% year-on-year [4] - The chemical business generated revenue of 10.403 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20%, with a gross profit of 883 million, up 31% [4] Business Segments - The coke business is supported by ongoing projects, including a 1.8 million ton coking project in Jiangxi and a 4.8 million ton project in Indonesia, which has already started production [4] - The chemical segment is expected to become the core growth driver, with plans to increase caprolactam production capacity to 1.5 million tons by 2028 [4] Hydrogen Energy - The company is leveraging its coking capacity to expand into hydrogen energy, becoming the largest hydrogen producer in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region [5] - The company has received clean hydrogen certification and is expected to benefit from new hydrogen policies [5] Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 52.8 billion, 59 billion, and 62.7 billion respectively, with net profits of 600 million, 700 million, and 800 million [5]

Financial Performance - Revenue for the reporting period was RMB 25,208.8 million, an increase of 21.0% compared to the previous year[2]. - Profit attributable to owners was RMB 111.9 million, a decrease of approximately 84.4% year-on-year[2]. - Basic earnings per share for the reporting period were RMB 2.54, a decrease of approximately 84.3% year-on-year[2]. - The total comprehensive income for the period was RMB 157.4 million, significantly lower than RMB 855.8 million in the previous period[4]. - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 111,851,000, down from RMB 715,652,000, a decrease of about 84%[28]. - For the period ending June 30, 2024, the company reported a total revenue of RMB 856,048,000, an increase from RMB 503,982,000 for the same period in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 69.5%[33]. - The group’s net profit decreased by approximately RMB 577.5 million or 81.2% compared to the previous period[46]. - Profit before tax decreased by RMB 206.1 million or 55.2% to RMB 167.3 million[78]. - Net profit for the period was RMB 133.5 million, a decrease of RMB 577.4 million or 81.2% compared to the previous period[80]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the sale of coke and coking products was RMB 9,811,144 thousand, while the revenue from fine chemical products was RMB 10,403,136 thousand, contributing significantly to the overall revenue[15]. - Revenue from the coking and coking products segment rose by RMB 2,215.8 million or 29.2% to RMB 9,811.1 million, primarily due to the consolidation of Xuyang Zhongran since June 1, 2023, which contributed RMB 3,318.1 million[67]. - Revenue from fine chemicals increased by RMB 1,766.4 million or 20.5% to RMB 10,403.1 million, driven by higher average selling prices and increased sales volumes of styrene and benzene[67]. - Operating management services revenue surged by RMB 1,931.6 million or 409.6% to RMB 2,403.1 million, attributed to new projects launched in the second half of 2023[68]. - Trade business revenue decreased by RMB 1,693.4 million or 41.0% to RMB 2,432.8 million, mainly due to lower selling prices of coke and coal[68]. Operational Metrics - During the reporting period, the quantities of coke and fine chemical products were 8.7 million tons and 2.6 million tons, representing year-on-year increases of 14.9% and 19.0% respectively[2]. - The quantity of high-purity hydrogen during the reporting period was 9.5 million Nm3, a year-on-year increase of 98.9%[2]. - The average price of coke products dropped to approximately RMB 2,000 per ton (excluding tax), a decrease of about 16.2% compared to the previous period[46]. - The group maintained a coal-coke price difference of approximately RMB 320 per ton, down about 1.5% from the previous period[46]. - The group has expanded its coke production capacity to 3.2 million tons per year at its Sulawesi production site, with four coke ovens operational[50]. Assets and Liabilities - Non-current assets as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 36,446.1 million, slightly down from RMB 36,702.4 million as of December 31, 2023[5]. - The company's total assets minus current liabilities stood at RMB 26,425,226,000, up from RMB 23,880,821,000, reflecting a growth of 10.5%[6]. - The total assets as of June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 59,844,511 thousand, up from RMB 53,836,249 thousand as of December 31, 2023, reflecting a growth of about 11.1%[17]. - The total liabilities increased to RMB 45,354,464 thousand as of June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 39,363,804 thousand at the end of 2023, marking an increase of approximately 15.6%[18]. - The company's total equity as of June 30, 2024, was RMB 14,490,047,000, slightly up from RMB 14,472,445,000[6]. Cash Flow and Financing - Cash and cash equivalents increased to RMB 3,636.7 million from RMB 1,239.3 million in the previous period[5]. - Operating cash flow for the period was approximately RMB 961.8 million, a decrease of about RMB 842 million compared to the previous period, primarily due to a decrease in pre-tax profit and increased cash outflows for raw materials and related party payables[84]. - Net cash from financing activities was RMB 3,627.4 million, a significant increase from RMB 172.7 million in the previous period, driven by increased cash inflows from new bank and other loans[86]. - Total borrowings increased by approximately RMB 4,385.2 million or 17.1% from RMB 25,705.6 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 30,090.8 million as of June 30, 2024, primarily due to an increase in bank loans[87]. Dividends and Share Repurchase - The board declared an interim dividend of RMB 0.78 per share, compared to RMB 4.90 per share in the previous period[2]. - The company declared a final dividend of RMB 0.012 per share, totaling RMB 52,868,000, an increase from RMB 39,817,000 in the previous year[26]. - The company repurchased a total of 13,868,000 shares during the reporting period at a total cost of approximately HKD 41,680,620[57]. Corporate Governance and Compliance - The company has maintained compliance with the corporate governance code, except for the separation of the roles of chairman and CEO[96]. - The audit committee has discussed matters related to audit, risk management, internal control, and financial statements during the reporting period[101]. - The company is actively seeking suitable candidates to fill vacancies for independent non-executive directors and audit committee members to comply with listing rules by October 14, 2024[97].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 4.2, based on a current price of HKD 2.98 [1][49]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to leverage its coking coal business to develop its chemical and hydrogen energy sectors, indicating a strategic focus on diversification and growth [10][41]. - The company has a strong financial performance, characterized by effective cost control and stable cash flow management, which enhances its investment appeal [11][30]. - The company aims to increase its annual coking capacity to 30 million tons by 2025 through various growth strategies, including investments and partnerships [14][47]. Summary by Sections 1. Coking Business and Chemical, Hydrogen Energy Development - The company operates multiple business lines, including self-built, joint ventures, and management services, which balance heavy and light asset strategies [14][30]. - The company has established a robust presence in the coking industry, with a cumulative revenue growth of 270.2% from 2016 to 2023 [14][25]. - The company has diversified its product lines in the chemical sector, achieving significant growth in revenue and profit margins [30][36]. 2. Coking Industry Positioning - The company is the largest independent coking producer globally, with a market share of 2.24% in China, which is expected to increase with new projects in Indonesia and Pingxiang [14][47]. - The company’s coking production costs are significantly lower than the industry average, contributing to its competitive advantage [25][27]. 3. Chemical Business Development - The company has developed a comprehensive chemical product line based on by-products from coking, with 55 products across various categories [30][36]. - The chemical business has shown stable growth, with a cumulative revenue increase of 254.6% from 2016 to 2023 [36][30]. 4. Hydrogen Energy Initiatives - The company is actively investing in hydrogen energy, viewing it as a key growth area and a transition path for the coking industry [41][45]. - The strategic plan for hydrogen development includes a comprehensive approach to production, storage, and distribution, aiming to establish a robust hydrogen supply network [45][39]. 5. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at HKD 11.50 billion, HKD 12.81 billion, and HKD 13.75 billion, respectively [47][49]. - The valuation is based on a PE ratio of 15 times the expected net profit for 2024, leading to a target market value of approximately HKD 172.51 billion [49][50].

Company Overview - China Risun Group Limited is the world's largest independent coke producer and supplier for over a decade[11]. - The company has become the world's second-largest producer of caprolactam and the largest producer of high-purity hydrogen in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[11]. - The company is approaching its 30th anniversary in 2025, reflecting on its core strengths and methodologies[11]. Production and Capacity - There has been a substantial increase in the annual production capacity of products, transitioning from traditional commodities to innovative and advanced products[11]. - The Group's production bases include locations in Beijing, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, and ongoing developments in Indonesia and Jiangxi[24][27]. - The Group operates eight production bases globally, including seven in China and one in Indonesia, with plans for further expansion in Jiangxi, China[63]. - The Group aims to increase its annual production/processing volume of coke and refined chemicals according to market demand and its Five-Year Plan from 2021 to 2025[63]. - The Group's gross annual coke production capacity in Indonesia is projected to be 13.40 million tons, with an attributable capacity of 4.36 million tons per annum[63]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the total revenue of China Risun Group Limited reached RMB 46,065,896, an increase from RMB 43,139,449 in 2022, reflecting a growth of approximately 6.8%[34]. - The Group achieved a gross profit of RMB 33.2 million in 2023, compared to RMB 42.8 million in 2022, indicating a decline[23]. - The profit for the year attributable to owners of the company was RMB 860,814, a decrease from RMB 1,855,122 in 2022, representing a decline of approximately 53.6%[34]. - The basic earnings per share for 2023 was RMB 0.19, down from RMB 0.42 in 2022, showing a decrease of about 54.8%[34]. - The total dividend for the year is approximately RMB 270 million, representing at least 30% of the Group's net distributable profits of approximately RMB 861 million[22]. Market Position and Share - The market share in coke for 2023 accounted for 1.8% globally (up from 1.6% in 2022) and 2.5% of China's total output (up from 2.2% in 2022)[12]. - The market share in high purified hydrogen (by production capacity) in 2023 accounted for 8.3% in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area of China (up from 5.7% in 2022)[12]. - The Group's focus for 2024 includes expanding the market share of all key products through operational management and mergers and acquisitions[22]. Strategic Development - The strategic development signifies a transformation from a singular focus on coke to establishing refined chemicals as the second pillar business segment[11]. - The strategic shift towards diversified product offerings marks a transition from a focus solely on coke to establishing fine chemicals as a second pillar business segment[13]. - The Group plans to strengthen the production line of coke and refined chemicals while expanding into new materials and new energy, such as caprolactam (CPL) and hydrogen-based products[22]. - The Group's strategy includes a balance between mergers and acquisitions and operational management services to enhance its competitive edge[20]. Environmental and Social Responsibility - Cumulative investment in environmental protection reached approximately RMB8.9 billion as of December 31, 2023, up from RMB6.5 billion in 2022[15]. - The Group is committed to high standards of environmental and social responsibility while harmonizing business growth with national development goals[20]. - The Group's hydrogen energy segment successfully passed the "Low Carbon Hydrogen, Clean Hydrogen and Renewable Hydrogen Standards and Evaluation" certification, becoming the first domestic enterprise to obtain clean hydrogen certification for demonstration city clusters[76]. Management and Governance - Mr. Yang has been the Executive Director and CEO since November 2007, overseeing overall management and business development of the Group[38]. - The management team is committed to enhancing corporate governance and operational efficiency through experienced leadership[38][40]. - The Board of Directors consists of nine members, including six Executive Directors and three Independent Non-executive Directors[172]. Research and Development - The Group is focusing on digital transformation, intelligent manufacturing, and big data as part of its development strategy aligned with the National Five-Year Plan[84]. - Research and development expenses increased by 30%, totaling $150 million, to support new technology initiatives[51]. Customer and Supplier Relationships - The Group maintains long-term cooperative relationships with major customers, with some relationships lasting over 18 years[157]. - The principal raw material for coke production is coking coal, primarily sourced from suppliers in Shanxi and Hebei provinces[159]. - The Group procured coking coals from over 100 suppliers in the PRC and overseas during the Reporting Period, ensuring a broad base of suppliers for competitive pricing[164]. Shareholder Information - The total issued share capital of the Company as of December 31, 2023, was HK$442,412,600, divided into 4,424,126,000 shares of HK$0.1 each[165]. - The Group declared a final dividend of RMB1.20 cents per share for the year ended December 31, 2023, totaling approximately RMB53,090,000, representing no less than 30% of the profit attributable to owners of the company[168]. - The Group has not issued any debentures during the Reporting Period[165].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 5.5 HKD, indicating an expected upside of 84% from the current price of 2.99 HKD as of March 21, 2024 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 46 billion RMB in 2023, representing a growth of 6.8%, but net profit decreased by 53% to 860 million RMB. The gross margin was 7.2%, down by 2.7 percentage points, and the net margin was 2.1%, down by 2.2 percentage points [1][5]. - The coking industry is currently in a downturn, with coking prices having peaked at the end of 2023 and subsequently declining significantly in 2024. Despite this, the company's competitive position is strengthening [1][5]. - The chemical segment performed well, with revenue increasing by 21% to 18.6 billion RMB, primarily due to the commissioning of a caprolactam production line and the consolidation of the chemical business from Xuyang Zhongran [1][5]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with new projects in Inner Mongolia and Indonesia contributing to an increase in coking output [1][5]. Financial Summary - The total market capitalization of the company is approximately 13.4 billion HKD, with a total share capital of 4.42 billion shares [3]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 0.26, 0.36, and 0.51 HKD respectively [1][6]. - The forecasted revenue for 2024 is 49.64 billion RMB, with a projected net profit of 960 million RMB, reflecting a recovery from the previous year's decline [6][14]. Valuation Analysis - The valuation methods employed include comparable company analysis and discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. The target price derived from these methods is 5.5 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22x, reflecting the long-term valuation despite current industry challenges [8][11]. - The DCF analysis estimates the company's market value at approximately 25.4 billion HKD, considering a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 12% and a long-term growth rate of 2% [11][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the stable development of the company's coking business despite a decline in prices, with significant expansion in the chemical sector [3][4] - The company achieved a total revenue of 46.066 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, but net profit decreased by 53.6% to 861 million [2][3] - The chemical business revenue surpassed the coking business for the first time, indicating a core growth area for future development [3] Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 180.77 billion from its coking business, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, while the gross profit decreased by 33.7% due to the downturn in the real estate market [3] - The average coking price for the year was 2201.4 yuan/ton, down 27.6% year-on-year [3] - The chemical business generated revenue of 186.81 billion, up 21.1% year-on-year, with a gross profit increase of 26.8% [3] - The company expects total revenues of 528 billion, 590 billion, and 676 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits projected at 11 billion, 12 billion, and 15 billion [4][6] Business Segment Analysis - Coking Business: Revenue for H2 2023 was 104.82 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47.5%, with a significant increase in production capacity from ongoing projects [3] - Chemical Business: The company is expanding its production capacity and has achieved cost optimization, which is expected to continue benefiting margins [3] - Hydrogen Energy: The company has become the largest hydrogen energy producer in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and is positioned to benefit from industry growth [3] Market Performance - The company's stock price has fluctuated between 3.010 and 3.740 HKD over the past 52 weeks, with a total market capitalization of 13.49358 billion HKD [5]