Core Viewpoint - The financial report of Shangmei Co., Ltd. for 2024 shows impressive revenue and profit growth, but reveals significant reliance on a single brand and channel, raising concerns about sustainability and long-term growth [1][2][10]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Shangmei Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 6.793 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 62.1%, and a net profit of 803 million RMB, up 74.0% [1][10]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 75.2%, while the net profit margin was only 11.83% [8][10]. Brand Dependency - The company heavily relies on the KANS brand, which accounted for 82.3% of total revenue in 2024, with sales reaching 5.591 billion RMB, a growth of 80.9% [4][5]. - Other brands under Shangmei, such as One Leaf and Baby Elephant, showed significantly lower sales figures, indicating a "one strong, multiple weak" brand structure [2][4]. Channel Dependency - Online sales contributed 90.5% of total revenue in 2024, with 61.35 billion RMB generated from online channels, marking an increase of approximately 82.6% [6][7]. - The majority of online sales came from the Douyin platform, where KANS brand's GMV reached 6.784 billion RMB, growing 103% year-on-year [6][10]. Marketing and R&D Expenditure - Marketing expenses accounted for nearly 60% of total revenue in 2024, with sales and distribution expenses reaching 3.947 billion RMB, a 76.2% increase [8][10]. - R&D expenditure was only 1.8 billion RMB, representing a mere 2.6% of total revenue, highlighting a significant imbalance between marketing and product development [10]. Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 10 billion RMB by 2025 and 30 billion RMB by 2030, but this ambition is contingent on overcoming brand and channel dependencies [10].

Group 1 - The event focuses on new technologies and market expansion in the electric two-wheeler battery swap industry [3] - The conference will feature the release of the "2025 China Two-Wheeler Battery Swap and Battery TOP Rankings and Industry White Paper," which includes rankings for top electric two-wheeler manufacturers and battery suppliers [3] - The global battery swap market for two-wheelers is experiencing rapid growth driven by policy support, demand for instant delivery, and technological upgrades [3] Group 2 - The event will take place on July 10-11, 2025, at the Hongdoushan Villa in Wuxi, with an expected attendance of over 500 participants [4] - The agenda includes various specialized forums discussing trends in electric two-wheeler technology, battery safety, and the impact of new national standards [5] - Key topics will include high-safety sodium-ion batteries, lithium battery technology advancements, and the application of new materials and processes [5] Group 3 - Notable participating companies include major players in the electric two-wheeler and battery sectors, such as Yadea, Aima, and CATL, among others [7][8] - The event will also attract companies from the IoT and communication module sectors, as well as battery management system (BMS) providers [7][8] - The conference aims to facilitate collaboration and knowledge sharing among industry stakeholders, including manufacturers, investors, and media [8]

Company Overview - Shangmei Co., Ltd. is a multi-brand cosmetics group established in 2004, rebranded in 2015, and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2022, covering skincare, maternal and infant care, personal care, and makeup products [1] - The main brand, Han Shu, launched in 2003, is projected to be the second-largest domestic beauty brand in terms of online GMV in 2024, with the highest growth rate among leading beauty brands [1] - The company has capitalized on the growth of the Douyin platform, expecting rapid revenue growth from 2023 to 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 59.3% for revenue and 130.5% for net profit from 2022 to 2024 [1] Industry Analysis - The Chinese cosmetics industry has shown fluctuating growth since 2020, with a projected market size of 537.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 2.0% year-on-year decline [2] - Mass-market cosmetics are expected to outperform high-end products, indicating a consumer preference for cost-effectiveness [2] - In terms of product categories, makeup and infant care are expected to perform better than the overall cosmetics market [2] - Domestic brands are leveraging online channels to gain market share, with Douyin emerging as a significant platform, where Han Shu ranked first in GMV for beauty products in 2023 [2] Brand Performance - Han Shu is positioned as a mass-market brand focusing on scientific anti-aging, targeting a broad user base and expanding through new product launches and category extensions [2] - The brand "Yi Ye" is capitalizing on the children's care market, expecting triple-digit revenue growth for two consecutive years from 2023 to 2024, supported by endorsements from well-known actors and parenting experts [2] - Other potential brands include a hair care brand targeting hair loss and a makeup brand in collaboration with makeup artists, indicating a strategy to diversify growth avenues [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.06 billion yuan, 1.38 billion yuan, and 1.74 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 2.65, 3.47, and 4.37 yuan [3] - The estimated PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 23, 18, and 14 times, respectively [3] - A target price of 86 HKD is set for the company, with an initial "buy" rating based on absolute and relative valuation results [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 86 HKD, based on absolute and relative valuation results [4][14][6]. Core Insights - The company, Shumei Co., Ltd. (2145.HK), is a multi-brand cosmetics group that has shown remarkable growth, particularly through its main brand, KANS, which has become the second-largest domestic beauty brand in terms of online GMV by 2024 [2][23]. - The company has capitalized on the growth of the Douyin platform, leading to a significant increase in revenue and net profit from 2022 to 2024, with projected compound annual growth rates of 59.3% and 130.5%, respectively [2][4]. - The cosmetics industry in China is experiencing both growth and competition, with opportunities in lower-tier markets and niche segments, particularly in color cosmetics and infant care [3][72]. Company Overview - Shumei Co., Ltd. was established in 2004 and went public in 2022, offering a wide range of products including skincare, maternal and infant care, personal care, and makeup [2][23]. - The main brand, KANS, has been a significant contributor to the company's revenue, accounting for 82.3% of total revenue in 2024, with a projected revenue of 55.91 billion CNY [25][23]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 67.93 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 62.1%, and a net profit of 7.81 billion CNY, up 69.4% from the previous year [4][5]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 10.6 billion CNY, 13.8 billion CNY, and 17.4 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.65, 3.47, and 4.37 CNY [4][14]. Industry Analysis - The Chinese cosmetics industry is projected to reach a scale of 537.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a slight decline of 2.0% year-on-year, indicating a shift in consumer preference towards cost-effective products [3][72]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by domestic brands leveraging online channels, with Douyin emerging as a key platform for growth [3][72]. Growth Drivers - The main brand KANS is expected to continue its growth trajectory through product innovation and channel diversification, while the emerging brand Yipai is anticipated to achieve triple-digit growth in revenue for 2023 and 2024 [4][10]. - The company is also exploring new brands and product lines, such as the hair care brand Jifang and the makeup brand NAN beauty, to create multiple growth avenues [4][12].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 86 HKD, compared to the current price of 66.3 HKD [6][14]. Core Insights - The company, Up Beauty Co., Ltd. (2145.HK), is transforming from a single-brand platform to a multi-brand, omnichannel group, with significant growth driven by its main brand, KANS, which ranks second among domestic beauty brands in online GMV for 2024 [2][3]. - The company has experienced rapid revenue growth, with a projected revenue of 6.793 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 62.1%, and a net profit of 781 million CNY, up 69.4% [2][4]. Company Overview - Up Beauty Co., Ltd. was established in 2004 and went public in 2022. It operates multiple brands, including KANS, One Leaf, Red Elephant, and New Page, covering skincare, maternal and child care, personal care, and makeup products [2][23]. - KANS, the main brand, has become a leading player in the domestic beauty market, achieving significant online sales growth, particularly on platforms like Douyin [2][3][35]. Industry Analysis - The Chinese cosmetics industry has shown fluctuating growth since 2020, with a projected market size of 537.2 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a 2.0% year-on-year decline. However, mass-market cosmetics are performing better than high-end products, indicating a shift in consumer preference towards cost-effectiveness [3][72]. - The report highlights that the segments of color cosmetics and infant care are performing relatively well compared to the overall market [3][72]. Growth Highlights - KANS is positioned as a mass-market brand focusing on scientific anti-aging, with plans for product innovation and channel diversification to enhance profitability [4][10]. - The New Page brand is capitalizing on the infant care market, with expected triple-digit growth in revenue for 2023 and 2024 [4][10]. - Other potential brands, such as Jifang and NAN beauty, are also being developed to create multiple growth avenues for the company [4][12]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 1.057 billion CNY, 1.381 billion CNY, and 1.738 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.65, 3.47, and 4.37 CNY [4][14]. - Revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.6%, 20.9%, and 16.2% from 2025 to 2027 [4][11]. Competitive Positioning - The company has successfully leveraged online channels, particularly Douyin, to drive sales, with KANS achieving significant growth in this space [3][35]. - Compared to peers, Up Beauty Co., Ltd. ranks second in revenue and fourth in net profit among domestic cosmetics companies for 2024 [56][58].

Group 1 - The recent performance of Hong Kong and A-shares has been lackluster, with market movements heavily influenced by U.S. events, particularly Trump's tariff actions [1] - Trump's recent threats to impose tariffs on the EU and increase steel tariffs to 50% have created volatility in the markets, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal policy [1][2] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield remains above 5%, raising concerns about the stability of U.S. debt and its implications for the broader financial market [1][2] Group 2 - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong is gaining attention, characterized by a diverse range of companies from bubble tea to beauty products, indicating a broad interpretation of consumer spending [5][6] - Major internet companies in China, such as Meituan and Xiaomi, reported strong earnings, with Meituan exceeding revenue and profit expectations despite ongoing competition with JD.com [6] - PDD's financial performance has been mixed, with revenue growth but a significant drop in net profit, attributed to government subsidies and market conditions, leading to volatility in its stock price [6] Group 3 - The IPO market in Hong Kong has shown a positive trend, with a low first-day loss rate of 28.6% for new listings, the lowest since 2017 [7] - New stock performance varies significantly, with some companies like Ningde Times and Guanshi Shuduan showing substantial first-day gains, while others like Paige Biopharma experienced significant losses [8] - The strategy for participating in new stock offerings emphasizes quick exits within three days, suggesting a focus on short-term gains rather than long-term holdings [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment outlook for the beauty and personal care industry, emphasizing the potential of domestic brands in the offline channel [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the transformation of offline channels as a key growth driver for beauty brands, especially in the context of slowing e-commerce growth [4][5]. - It identifies the need for brands to enhance their offline presence to create a differentiated competitive advantage [5][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Online Channel Competition Intensifies, Offline Channel Advantages Emerge - E-commerce growth is slowing, with China's physical goods online retail expected to reach 13.1 trillion yuan in 2024, growing at 6.5% [4][15]. - The number of internet users in China is projected to reach 1.108 billion by the end of 2024, with an internet penetration rate of 78.6% [4][15]. - New consumption policies are being implemented to boost offline consumption, enhancing brand influence and customer engagement [4][27]. 2. Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Offline Channel Formats - Offline channels serve both sales and brand marketing functions, with a variety of formats emerging to meet consumer needs [40]. - High-end beauty counters are experiencing a phase of quality improvement, with a significant increase in average sales per counter from 3.36 million yuan in 2019 to nearly 5 million yuan in 2023 [46][50]. - The report notes that high-end brands are increasingly occupying the beauty counter space, with a 32% increase in high-end counters from 2019 to 2023 [50][53]. 3. Brand Strategies in Offline Channel Development - Domestic brands are actively expanding their offline presence, with several launching flagship stores in major cities [38][39]. - The report recommends specific companies for investment, including: - Shangmei Co., which is developing a balanced multi-brand matrix [5]. - Shanghai Jahwa, known for its extensive presence in supermarkets and counters [5]. - Proya, which is focusing on offline channels with its energy series [5]. - Betaini, leveraging pharmacy channels to establish a professional image [5]. - Maogeping, which has a unique offline counter layout [5]. - Runben, a leading brand in maternal and infant products, expanding its offline market [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the high sales expenses in the daily chemical skincare industry significantly erode profits, leading to high gross margins but low net margins [1][3] - In 2024, over half of the selected companies in the daily chemical skincare industry have a sales expense ratio exceeding 40%, indicating that they allocate more than 40% of their revenue to marketing [1] - Yatsen E-commerce has the highest sales expense ratio at 60.1%, followed by Shangmei Co. and Marubi Biotechnology with ratios of 58.11% and 55.04% respectively [1] Group 2 - Many listed companies in the daily chemical skincare industry invest heavily in marketing while underinvesting in research and development, leading to severe product homogeneity and insufficient innovation [3] - The heavy reliance on marketing has resulted in a price war within the industry, which diminishes profitability and creates a vicious cycle [3] - Companies like Betaini have become overly dependent on a single brand, with over 90% of their main business revenue coming from the "Winona" brand, which has seen a sales decline of 5.45% in 2024 [3] Group 3 - The challenge for many companies in the daily chemical skincare industry in 2025 will be to balance marketing and research and development expenditures, transitioning from a marketing-driven approach to a product-driven one [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4][6]. Core Insights - The 618 promotional event has been advanced, with Tmall's pre-sale period shortened compared to the previous year's Double Eleven event. The first wave of Tmall's 618 sales runs from May 13 to May 26, 2025, with a pre-sale deposit payment phase from May 13 to May 16, and a final payment and early purchase phase from May 16 to May 26. This is a 7-day advance compared to last year's 618 event and a 4-day reduction compared to last year's Double Eleven pre-sale period [2][11]. - The promotional mechanisms have been simplified, with Tmall and JD.com eliminating cross-store discounts and increasing platform subsidies. Tmall's official discounts range from 15% to 50%, and the number of coupons issued to 88VIP members has increased significantly from 2 to 6 compared to last year [2][12]. - The first hour of sales in Li Jiaqi's live stream saw a GMV increase of over 10% year-on-year, with notable performances from domestic brands such as Proya and Kefu Mei [3][15]. Summary by Sections 1. 618 Promotional Event - The promotional event's schedule has been advanced, with Tmall's pre-sale period shortened compared to the previous year [2][11]. - JD.com has canceled the pre-heating period, maintaining the same sales period as last year [2][11]. 2. Li Jiaqi's Live Stream Sales Performance - The first hour of the "Explosive Beauty Festival" in Li Jiaqi's live stream saw a GMV increase of over 10% year-on-year, with multiple brand collaborations [3][15]. - Domestic brands such as Proya and Kefu Mei performed exceptionally well during the first day of sales [3][16]. 3. Tmall 618 Pre-sale Rankings - Proya ranked first in the beauty sales during the first four hours of Tmall's pre-sale, with Kefu Mei entering the top three [3][21]. - The rankings indicate a strong performance from domestic brands, with Proya maintaining its leading position and Kefu Mei rising three spots [3][21].

Group 1 - The trend of refined parenting is emerging as a new generation of parents, primarily those born in the 1990s and 2000s, are driving changes in child-rearing concepts and consumption patterns, leading to an increased demand for children's skincare products [1] - The baby and toddler skincare market in China is expected to reach nearly 50 billion yuan by 2026, with the skincare segment projected to reach 18 billion yuan, expanding from basic cleaning and moisturizing to more functional areas such as sensitive skin, eczema, sun protection, and mosquito repellent [1] - Domestic beauty companies are increasingly entering the baby skincare market, with brands like Jichu launching products that address common skin issues in infants, such as eczema, through patented micro-ecological balance technology [1] Group 2 - Sales of baby skincare products on major e-commerce platforms are reaching new highs, with companies like Shiseido's subsidiary, Up Beauty, launching multiple baby skincare brands, including Red Elephant and Newpage, which reported significant revenue growth [4] - Newpage achieved a revenue of 376 million yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 146.3%, while its revenue growth in 2023 was nearly five times [4] - Other brands like Winona Baby and Qichu are also gaining traction, with Winona Baby generating 201 million yuan in revenue in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.03% [4]