医疗美容 可复美延续高增长，可丽金提速，胶原龙头潜力可期 巨子生物（02367.HK） 证券研究报告/公司研究简报 2025 年 04 月 07 日 | 评级： | 买入（首次） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：郑澄怀 | | 营业收入（百万元） | | 3,526 | 5,539 | 7,056 | 8,893 | 11,021 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | | 48% | 57% | 27% | 26% | 24% | | 执业证书编号：S0740524040004 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | | 1,452 | 2,062 | 2,532 | 3,102 | 3,819 | | Email：zhengch@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | | 109% | 42% | 23% | 23% | 23% | | | | 每股收益（ ...

Company Overview - The Shaanxi Provincial Government appointed Fan Daidi as the Vice President of Northwest University, effective April 1, 2025, with a one-year probation period [2] - Fan Daidi has a notable academic background, having obtained her PhD in Chemical Engineering and worked at various prestigious institutions, including MIT [2] - In 2000, Fan Daidi's research led to the development of a human-like collagen produced through genetic engineering, marking a significant milestone in her career [2][5] Company Formation and Growth - In 2000, Fan Daidi and her husband, Yan Jianya, co-founded Juzi Biotechnology, with Fan contributing patented technology as equity [3] - Juzi Biotechnology gained attention for its multiple research achievements and launched the "Keli Jin" brand in 2009, becoming the first company to mass-produce collagen skincare products [5] - The company later introduced the "Kefu Mei" brand in 2011, solidifying its brand structure [5] Investment and Financial Performance - Juzi Biotechnology completed its first round of financing in 2021, attracting notable investors such as GSUM XV HK Holdings Limited and CPE Collagen Investment Limited, with a pre-IPO valuation exceeding 19.3 billion RMB [6][7] - The company reported revenues of 5.539 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 57.17%, and a net profit of 2.062 billion RMB, up 42.36% [9] - Juzi Biotechnology has become the largest beauty and skincare company by market value in Hong Kong, surpassing 70 billion HKD [9] Ownership and Market Position - The ownership structure of Juzi Biotechnology primarily consists of Fan Daidi and Yan Jianya, who hold approximately 60% of the company through a family trust [6] - The couple ranked 196th on the 2024 Hurun Rich List with a combined wealth of 24.5 billion RMB, making them the third richest in Shaanxi [11] - Yan Jianya also leads another A-share listed company, Triangle Defense, which has a market value exceeding 10 billion RMB [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index (HSHCI) has shown strong performance, with significant increases in constituent stocks and the Hang Seng Healthcare ETF, indicating positive market sentiment in the healthcare sector [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of April 1, 2025, the HSHCI rose by 2.09%, with notable gains in stocks such as Genscript Biotech (8.36%) and Haijia Medical (7.74%) [1]. - The Hang Seng Healthcare ETF (513060) opened high and increased by 2.53%, with a latest price of 0.49 HKD and a trading volume of 1.28 billion HKD, achieving a turnover rate of 0.97% [1]. Group 2: ETF Growth and Performance Metrics - The Hang Seng Healthcare ETF has seen a significant growth of 2.648 billion HKD in size over the past year, ranking in the top third among comparable funds [4]. - The ETF's financing buy-in amount reached 322 million HKD, with a financing balance of 545 million HKD [4]. - Since its inception, the ETF recorded a highest monthly return of 28.34% and an average monthly return of 7.01% [4]. - The ETF's Sharpe ratio for the past year is 1.40, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [4]. Group 3: Valuation and Industry Outlook - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the HSHCI is 25.11, placing it in the 2.17% percentile over the past year, suggesting it is undervalued compared to historical levels [5]. - The National Medical Products Administration reported that 48 innovative drugs were approved in 2024, covering various therapeutic areas, indicating a robust pipeline for the pharmaceutical industry [5]. - Recent policies are shifting from cost control to encouraging innovation, with a focus on leading companies with strong international capabilities [5]. Group 4: Index Composition - As of March 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the HSHCI include WuXi Biologics, BeiGene, and Innovent Biologics, collectively accounting for 56.21% of the index [6].

Core Viewpoint - Juzhibio (02367.HK) has surpassed Maogeping to become the largest beauty and skincare company by market capitalization in Hong Kong, reaching a market value of HKD 72.98 billion as of March 31, 2025 [1] Financial Performance - For the year 2024, Juzhibio reported revenue of CNY 5.539 billion, a year-on-year increase of 57.17%, and a net profit of CNY 2.062 billion, up 42.36% [1] - The adjusted net profit for 2024 was CNY 2.152 billion, reflecting a growth of 46.49% [2] - The gross profit margin slightly decreased to 82.09%, but the overall gross profit crossed CNY 4.5 billion, marking a 54.28% increase [2] Product Segmentation - The core revenue segment for Juzhibio is functional skincare products, which achieved revenue exceeding CNY 4 billion for the first time, growing 62.52% to CNY 4.302 billion [4] - The medical dressing business also saw significant growth, with revenue surpassing CNY 1 billion, reaching CNY 1.218 billion, a 41.51% increase [4] - The main brands, Kefu Mei and Keli Jin, showed different growth rates, with Kefu Mei generating CNY 4.542 billion in revenue, up 62.89%, while Keli Jin's revenue was CNY 0.841 billion, growing 36.31% [4] Market Dynamics - The market for recombinant collagen is experiencing explosive growth, with a projected market size of CNY 219.38 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 44.93% [7] - New entrants are emerging in the market, indicating a competitive landscape where technological innovation will be crucial for success [7] - Juzhibio's Kefu Mei brand has shown remarkable growth, with revenue increasing from CNY 0.289 billion in 2019 to CNY 2.788 billion in 2023, representing over a 15-fold increase in less than seven years [5] Innovation and R&D - Juzhibio's R&D expenditure for 2024 was CNY 106 million, a 42.1% increase, accounting for only 1.9% of total revenue, supporting 188 ongoing projects [12] - The company has a technological edge in the field of recombinant collagen, which is essential for maintaining its competitive advantage [7][12] Competitive Landscape - The industry is witnessing a shift from hyaluronic acid to collagen products, driven by changing consumer preferences and intensified competition [1] - The entry of new players and advancements in technology are challenging existing market leaders, emphasizing the need for continuous innovation [6][12]

报名：首届全球眼科大会 | 议程更新 报名：首届全球心血管大会 | 奖项申报 报名：首届全球骨科大会 | 奖项评选 合作伙伴征集：2025全球手术机器人大会 2025年3月27日， 巨子生物发布2024年年报。 # 财务数据 业务板块 核心品牌 渠道表现 研发投入 市场表现 功效性护肤品 ：2024年收入约为43.02亿元，同比增长62.5%，占总营收的77.7%。 医用敷料 ：2024年收入约为12.18亿元，同比增长41.5%，占总营收的22.0%。 其他品牌 ：2024年收入为1.38亿元人民币，同比增长33.8%，占总收入的2.5%。 营业收入 ：2024年实现收入55.39亿元人民币，同比增长57.2%。 净利润 ：净利润为20.62亿元人民币，同比增长42.4%。 归母净利润 ：归属于母公司持有者的盈利为20.62亿元人民币，同比增长42.1%。 经调整净利润 ：非《国际财务报告准则》下的经调整净利润约为21.52亿元，同比增长46.5%。 每股盈利 ：每股基本盈利为2.1元，同比增加40.9%。 派息计划 ：拟派发末期股息每股0.6021元及特别股息每股0.5921元。 | | 截至12月31日 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 5.539 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 57.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.062 billion yuan, up 42.1% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 82.1%, a decrease of 1.54 percentage points compared to the previous year, primarily due to increased sales costs and product type expansion [1]. - The company is a leader in collagen protein skincare products in China, focusing on R&D and expanding into eight consumer brands [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 2.575 billion yuan, 3.149 billion yuan, and 3.782 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 25, 21, and 17 [4][6]. Brand Performance - The brand "可复美" generated revenue of 4.54 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 62.9% increase year-on-year, with strong performance in the dressing category [2]. - The "焦点" series, targeting skin sub-health populations, has shown promising sales, with the core product achieving a GMV of 277 million yuan within nine months of launch [2]. Channel Strategy - In 2024, the direct sales channel accounted for 74.6% of total sales, with online direct sales revenue reaching 3.587 billion yuan, a 66.5% increase year-on-year [3]. - The company has expanded its offline presence, covering approximately 1,700 public hospitals and 3,000 private hospitals and clinics, along with 6,000 retail stores [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 5.539 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 57.2%, and a net profit of 2.062 billion yuan, up 42.1% year-on-year [2][4]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 82.1%, a decrease of 1.54 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased sales costs and product type expansion [2][4]. - The company is a leader in collagen protein skincare products in China, focusing on R&D and expanding eight consumer brands [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net profit of 2.062 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit of 2.152 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 46.5% year-on-year [2][4]. - The sales expense ratio increased by 3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the rapid expansion of online direct sales channels [2][4]. - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 2.575 billion yuan, 3.149 billion yuan, and 3.782 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 25, 21, and 17 times [4][6]. Brand Performance - The brand "可复美" generated revenue of 4.54 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 62.9% [2][3]. - The "焦点" series, targeting skin sub-health populations, has shown promising sales, with the core product achieving a GMV of 277 million yuan within nine months of launch [2][3]. - The company is actively expanding its offline presence, having opened approximately 18 new stores in key cities [3]. Channel Strategy - In 2024, the direct sales channel accounted for 74.6% of total revenue, with online direct sales revenue reaching 3.587 billion yuan, a growth of 66.5% year-on-year [3]. - The company has strengthened its online operations, with the GMV on Douyin doubling to 1.8 billion yuan [3]. - The offline channel has expanded to cover around 1,700 public hospitals and 3,000 private hospitals and clinics [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a 2024 revenue of 5.54 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 57.2% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.06 billion yuan, up 42.1% year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit reached 2.15 billion yuan, increasing by 46.5% [3][4]. Revenue Performance - The professional skincare products generated revenue of 5.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.4% - The efficacy skincare products accounted for 4.30 billion yuan in revenue, growing by 62.5% and representing 77.7% of total revenue, an increase of 2.6 percentage points - Medical dressings generated 1.22 billion yuan, up 41.5%, but its revenue share decreased by 2.4 percentage points [4]. Brand Performance - The company's flagship brand, 可复美, achieved revenue of 4.54 billion yuan, a 62.9% increase, making up 82.0% of total revenue, an increase of 2.9 percentage points - The 可丽金 brand generated 840 million yuan, growing by 36.3%, but its revenue share decreased by 2.3 percentage points [4]. Product and Channel Growth - The 可复美胶原棒 continued to see rapid growth, and new products received positive market feedback - During the "Double Eleven" sales event, 可复美's online GMV increased by over 80%, while 可丽金's online GMV surged by 150% [5][6]. - The DTC online sales channel generated 3.59 billion yuan, up 66.5%, while e-commerce platform sales reached 380 million yuan, growing by 112.5% [6]. Strategic Direction - The company is focused on brand building, channel expansion, and regulatory approval to ensure sustainable growth - New product launches and the opening of flagship stores are part of the strategy to enhance brand influence and expand online sales [7][8]. Financial Forecast - The company maintains its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025, with an upward revision for 2026 net profit to 3.86 billion yuan, reflecting a 3% increase - New forecasts for 2027 are set at 12.75 billion yuan in revenue and 4.94 billion yuan in net profit [8][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][13] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 55.39 billion with a year-on-year growth of 57.2% in 2024, and an adjusted net profit of 21.52 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46.5% [1][8] - The company has provided guidance for 2025, anticipating a revenue growth rate of 25-28% and a net profit of 25-25.5 billion, which represents a year-on-year increase of 21-24% [1][8] - The company continues to strengthen its market position in the collagen protein sector, supported by a robust product matrix and ongoing new product launches [4][13] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 82.1% and a net profit margin of 37.2%, with both margins showing a decline compared to the previous year [3][11] - The company’s revenue from its main brand, 可复美, reached 45.42 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 62.9%, contributing to 82% of total revenue [2][9] - The company’s online sales channels have shown significant growth, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales increasing by 66.5% and e-commerce sales by 112.5% [2][9] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from functional skincare products was 43.02 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 62.5%, while medical dressings generated 12.18 billion, up 41.5% year-on-year [2][9] - The company has expanded its distribution channels, achieving revenue from DTC, e-commerce, offline, and distribution of 35.87 billion, 3.77 billion, 1.70 billion, and 14.05 billion respectively, with all channels showing positive growth [2][9] Future Projections - The company has slightly adjusted its net profit projections for 2025-2027, now estimating 25.49 billion, 30.92 billion, and 36.73 billion respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 26, 21, and 18 [4][13] - The company is expected to maintain its competitive edge in product quality and market presence despite rising costs associated with online platforms and increased marketing expenditures for new products [4][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is a leader in the recombinant collagen sector, showing strong growth in revenue and profit, with a projected revenue of 5.54 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 57.1% [8] - The company's online and offline sales channels are experiencing significant growth, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) online sales increasing by 66.5% and offline direct sales doubling [8] - The core product lines, particularly the "Kefumei" brand, are performing exceptionally well, with a 62.9% increase in revenue [8] - The company's profitability remains robust, with a gross margin of 82.1% and a net profit margin of 37.2% [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 3.53 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.54 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 57.07% [1][9] - Net profit is expected to rise from 1.45 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.06 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 42.06% [1][9] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 1.40 yuan in 2023 to 1.99 yuan in 2024 [1][9] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 44.64 in 2023 to 31.42 in 2024, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [1][9]