Core Viewpoint - GCL-Poly Energy (03800.HK) announced a voluntary disclosure indicating that its photovoltaic materials business is expected to turn profitable in the third quarter of 2025 [1] Company Performance - The photovoltaic materials business recorded a profit of approximately 960 million RMB, compared to a loss of 1.81 billion RMB in the same period last year [3] - The main factor for the turnaround was the after-tax gain from the sale of an associate company, amounting to about 640 million RMB. Excluding this non-recurring gain, the photovoltaic materials business still achieved operational profit, with an EBITDA of approximately 1.41 billion RMB, compared to an adjusted LBITDA loss of about 571 million RMB in the previous year [4] Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The average production cash cost of granular silicon (including R&D costs) decreased to 24.16 RMB/kg in the third quarter of 2025, down from 25.31 RMB/kg in the second quarter [5] - The average external selling price (including tax) for granular silicon rose significantly to 42.12 RMB/kg, compared to 32.93 RMB/kg in the second quarter [6] Industry Context - The announcement reflects a decline in costs, a recovery in demand, and a price correction within the granular silicon segment. The photovoltaic materials sector is anticipated to reach a profitability turning point amid intense competition [6] - In the first half of this year, several photovoltaic material companies reported a reduction in losses or a return to profitability, with 47 A-share photovoltaic companies experiencing losses, compared to 39 in the same period last year [6] - GCL-Poly Energy is the first company in the silicon material industry to achieve a phase of profitability, benefiting from stable pricing in the multi-crystalline silicon supply chain [6] - The domestic multi-crystalline silicon industry has seen a cumulative inventory reduction of approximately 12,000 tons in the first nine months of this year, with production expected to be around 130,000 tons in October [7]

Core Viewpoint - GCL-Poly Energy (03800.HK) announced a voluntary disclosure indicating that its photovoltaic materials business is expected to turn profitable by the third quarter of 2025, following a significant improvement in financial performance [1]. Financial Performance - The photovoltaic materials segment recorded a profit of approximately 960 million RMB, compared to a loss of 1.81 billion RMB in the same period last year [3]. - The main factor for the turnaround was the after-tax gain from the sale of an associate company, amounting to about 640 million RMB. Excluding this non-recurring gain, the photovoltaic materials business still achieved operational profit [3]. - The EBITDA for this segment was approximately 1.41 billion RMB, a significant improvement from an adjusted LBITDA loss of about 571 million RMB in the previous year [3]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The average production cash cost of granular silicon (including R&D costs) decreased to 24.16 RMB/kg in the third quarter of 2025, down from 25.31 RMB/kg in the second quarter [3]. - The average external selling price (including tax) for granular silicon rose significantly to 42.12 RMB/kg, compared to 32.93 RMB/kg in the second quarter [4]. Industry Context - The announcement reflects a decline in costs, a recovery in demand, and a price correction within the granular silicon segment, amidst a backdrop of intense competition in the photovoltaic materials industry [4]. - In the first half of this year, several photovoltaic material companies reported a reduction in quarterly losses or achieved profitability, with 47 A-share photovoltaic companies facing losses, up from 39 in the same period last year [4]. - GCL-Poly Energy is noted as the first company in the silicon material industry to achieve a phase of profitability, benefiting from stable pricing across the polysilicon supply chain [4]. Inventory and Production Outlook - In the first nine months of this year, the domestic polysilicon industry saw a cumulative inventory reduction of approximately 12,000 tons [5]. - The expected domestic polysilicon production for October is around 130,000 tons, with a slight increase in production compared to previous months, while demand remains relatively stable [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon prices have a more defined lower limit, and it is more cost - effective to go long at low prices. For polysilicon, the spot price in October is expected to remain flat, and it is not recommended to chase long positions, but rather consider going long when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price [3][17] Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 255 yuan/ton to 8430 yuan/ton. SMM spot prices of East China oxygen - blown 553 and Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9350 yuan/ton and 8750 yuan/ton respectively. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon increased by 3375 yuan/ton to 52340 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price of N - type re -投料 of polysilicon was 53200 yuan/ton [9] 2. Industrial Silicon Focuses on Cost Floor, Polysilicon Subject to Large News - Driven Fluctuations - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures main contract weakened. Northern large factories resumed production, while some southern silicon factories cut production in advance. It is expected that there will be more significant production cuts at the end of October. The social inventory increased by 1.7 tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.01 tons compared to before the holiday. It is difficult to reduce inventory in November, and 1.5 tons of inventory will be reduced in December [1][11] - **Organic Silicon**: The price increased slightly. Some devices were under maintenance, the overall enterprise operating rate was 69.99%, the weekly output was 4.63 tons (a decrease of 2.73% month - on - month), and the inventory was 4.18 tons (a decrease of 2.56% month - on - month). The price is expected to oscillate strongly [11][12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures main contract rose. The spot price of first - tier manufacturers' dense material remained at 55 yuan/kg, and that of second - and third - tier manufacturers was 52 - 53 yuan/kg. The new order price of granular material was 51 yuan/kg. The spot trading volume was low after the holiday. The production volume in October is expected to be about 13.8 tons, and it will significantly decrease from November to December. The factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 25.3 tons (an increase of 1.3 tons month - on - month), and the polysilicon inventory of silicon wafer enterprises was 22.2 tons (an increase of 1.4 tons month - on - month). The spot price is expected to remain flat [2][13] - **Silicon Wafers**: The prices of some models decreased slightly. The actual final output in October may be higher than expected. As of October 16, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 17.31GW (an increase of 0.53GW month - on - month). The price is under pressure, and production cuts are needed to support it [14] - **Battery Cells**: The price trend was divided. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12 battery cells remained flat, while that of G12R battery cells decreased to 0.285 yuan/W. As of October 13, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 6.63GW (an increase of 0.66GW month - on - month). The production volume in October was 58.65GW (a decrease of 1.5GW month - on - month) [15] - **Components**: The price remained basically stable. As of October 13, the finished product inventory of Chinese photovoltaic components was 34.2GW (an increase of 0.6GW month - on - month). The production volume in October was 45.66GW (a decrease of 2.1GW month - on - month). The demand from November to December may not be optimistic. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [16] 3. Investment Suggestions - **Industrial Silicon**: Due to weak fundamentals and poor macro - sentiment, the futures market weakened this week. After hedging, short - term price drops are unlikely to cause production cuts. It is more cost - effective to go long at low prices [3][17] - **Polysilicon**: It is maintained that the spot price will not fall in October. The market has rebounded significantly. It is not recommended to chase long positions. Consider going long when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and pay attention to the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse spread opportunity when the spread is around - 2000 yuan/ton [3][17] 4. Hot News Summary - GCL Technology achieved a profit in the third quarter of 2025, with a profit of about 960 million yuan, compared with a loss of 1.81 billion yuan in the same period last year [18] - In Gansu, the mechanism electricity prices for wind and solar power are the same at 0.1954 yuan/kWh, with a mechanism electricity volume of 830 million kWh [18] - In Xinjiang, the mechanism electricity price for wind power is 0.252 yuan/kWh with a mechanism electricity volume of 18.5 billion kWh, and for photovoltaic power is 0.235 yuan/kWh with a mechanism electricity volume of 3.6 billion kWh [19] 5. Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon**: Includes data on spot prices, weekly production in different regions, social inventory, and sample factory inventory [20][24][30] - **Organic Silicon**: Covers data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, factory inventory, and weekly production [31][32][33] - **Polysilicon**: Involves data on spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [35][37][38] - **Silicon Wafers**: Contains data on spot prices, average net profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [40][43][45] - **Battery Cells**: Includes data on spot prices, average net profits, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly production [46][49][52] - **Components**: Covers data on spot prices, average net profits, factory inventory, and enterprise monthly production [54][57][59]

Core Insights - GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited reported a profit of approximately 960 million yuan for its photovoltaic materials business in Q3 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss of about 1.81 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - The profit includes a post-tax gain of approximately 640 million yuan from the sale of an associate company [1] - The average external selling price of granular silicon was 42.12 yuan per kilogram in Q3 2025, an increase from 32.93 yuan per kilogram in Q2 2025 [1] - The average production cash cost of granular silicon, including R&D costs, decreased to 24.16 yuan per kilogram in Q3 2025 from 25.31 yuan per kilogram in Q2 2025 [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The lithium hexafluorophosphate market is experiencing unexpected prosperity, and the supply-side reform in the photovoltaic sector is continuously advancing [1] - The report highlights significant improvements in the supply-demand dynamics of the lithium hexafluorophosphate market, with prices rising sharply due to the end of the oversupply situation [8] - The photovoltaic industry is seeing a notable recovery, with the average external price of granular silicon increasing by 27.9% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a positive trend in the sector [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic sector is in a "de-involution" phase, with significant effects from supply-side reforms. The average external price of granular silicon reached 42.12 RMB/kg, up 27.9% from Q2, while cash costs decreased by 4.5% [5] - The price of silicon materials has stabilized around 50 RMB/kg, and there are expectations for new policies to further support the industry [5] - Companies to watch include GCL-Poly Energy, Tongwei Co., and high-efficiency battery technology firms such as BAK Power, Aiko Solar, and LONGi Green Energy [5] Wind Power - The offshore wind sector is entering a bidding peak, with significant projects being approved and orders being won by companies like Orient Cable and Zhongtian Technology [6] - The onshore wind market remains robust, with a high level of bidding activity and increasing average prices for wind turbines [7] Energy Storage - Hebei Province has released a list of independent energy storage pilot projects totaling 13.82 GW/47.03 GWh, indicating a push for diverse energy storage technologies [7] - The SNEC ES+2025 International Energy Storage Exhibition showcased advancements in large-scale energy storage systems [7] Lithium Battery - Companies in the lithium battery supply chain are advancing solid-state battery technologies, with significant deliveries of semi-solid batteries reported [7] - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has surged over 20% in less than a month, reflecting a substantial improvement in the supply-demand balance [8] Power Equipment - The State Grid's fixed asset investment increased by 8.1% year-on-year, with expectations for continued growth in power infrastructure [9] - The first cross-grid electricity spot trading between Southern and State Grid marks a significant step towards a unified electricity market in China [10]

Group 1: Event Overview - The 2025 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference will be held from October 16 to 18 in Shanghai, focusing on "Facing Challenges Together: Global Action, Innovation, and Sustainable Growth" [1] - The conference is co-hosted by the World Green Design Organization (WGDO) and Sina Group, with support from the Shanghai Huangpu District Government [1] - Approximately 500 prominent guests, including 100 international attendees, will participate, featuring politicians, Nobel laureates, and leaders from Fortune 500 companies [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The Chief Sustainability Officer of GCL Group, Song Yunbo, emphasized the importance of ESG overseas regulatory environments for the photovoltaic industry [2][4] - GCL Group has established a comprehensive governance system and has made significant advancements in technology innovation and certifications to enhance its global competitiveness [4] - GCL Group's subsidiary, GCL Technology, has developed granular silicon products that reduce energy consumption by over 80% compared to traditional rod silicon, achieving nearly 30% market share [4] Group 3: Carbon Management Initiatives - GCL Group has disclosed its carbon information at the corporate level and set short, medium, and long-term carbon reduction targets, committing to carbon neutrality across the entire value chain by 2050 [5] - The company initiated the Global Solar Sustainable Development Initiative Alliance (GSSA) to align Chinese photovoltaic standards with international standards [5][6] - GCL Integrated has joined the Science Based Targets Initiative (SBTI), pledging to reduce its scope 1, 2, and 3 carbon emissions by over 60% by 2035 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company has achieved a significant turnaround in its photovoltaic materials business, reporting a profit of approximately 960 million RMB, contrasting sharply with a loss of 1.81 billion RMB in the same period last year [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The profit turnaround is attributed to two main factors: the rise in silicon material prices and the sale of an associate company, which generated a post-tax profit of 640 million RMB [4]. - The average external tax-inclusive selling price of granular silicon increased to 42.12 RMB/kg in Q3 2025, up from 32.93 RMB/kg in Q2, indicating a recovery in demand and price for high-quality granular silicon [4]. - The average production cash cost of granular silicon decreased to 24.16 RMB/kg, down from 27.07 RMB/kg in Q1, showcasing improvements in energy control, process optimization, and economies of scale [4]. Group 2: Asset Sale and Strategic Moves - The sale of the associate company, Xinhua Semiconductor, is seen as a critical factor in the company's turnaround, with the company having a 24.57% stake and the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund holding 20.63% [4]. - Xinhua Semiconductor, established in 2015, is projected to become the world's largest electronic-grade polysilicon producer upon reaching its planned capacity of 20,000 tons [4]. - The company sold its stake in Xinhua Semiconductor to Hefei Guocai No. 3 Enterprise Management Partnership due to cash flow issues caused by a price war in granular silicon [5]. Group 3: Future Growth and Financing - The company has been active in securing financing, recently entering a strategic financing agreement with Infini Capital, raising approximately 5.446 billion HKD (around 5 billion RMB) through a private placement of about 4.736 billion shares [7]. - The raised funds will be allocated to various core areas, including 1.8 billion HKD for optimizing polysilicon production capacity and 900 million HKD for expanding the silane gas business [7]. - The company aims to establish a second growth curve through its silane gas production, which has applications in semiconductor manufacturing, photovoltaic industry, and other sectors, with a production capacity exceeding 20,000 tons and a market share of over 30% [7].

Core Viewpoint - GCL-Poly Energy (协鑫科技) has reported a turnaround in its photovoltaic materials business, achieving profitability in Q3 2025 after a significant loss in the same period last year, primarily due to a one-time gain from the sale of an associate company [4]. Company Summary - GCL-Poly's photovoltaic materials business recorded a profit of approximately 960 million RMB in Q3 2025, compared to a loss of 1.81 billion RMB in the same quarter of the previous year [4]. - The main factor for the turnaround was a tax-adjusted gain of about 640 million RMB from the sale of an associate company; excluding this non-recurring gain, the business still achieved operational profit [4]. - The EBITDA for the photovoltaic materials segment was approximately 1.41 billion RMB, a significant improvement from an adjusted LBITDA loss of about 571 million RMB in the previous year [4]. Cost and Pricing Summary - GCL-Poly has successfully reduced the average production cash cost of granular silicon to 24.16 RMB/kg in Q3 2025, down from 25.31 RMB/kg in Q2 2025 [5]. - The average external selling price of granular silicon increased significantly to 42.12 RMB/kg in Q3 2025, compared to 32.93 RMB/kg in Q2 2025 [5]. - The company's announcements reflect a decline in costs, a recovery in demand, and a price correction in the granular silicon segment [5]. Industry Context - The photovoltaic materials sector is experiencing a shift towards profitability, with several companies reporting reduced losses or turning profitable in the first half of the year [6]. - GCL-Poly is among the first in the silicon material industry to achieve a phase of profitability, attributed to stable pricing in the multi-crystalline silicon supply chain amidst intense competition [6]. - The domestic multi-crystalline silicon industry has seen a cumulative reduction of about 12,000 tons in inventory over the first nine months of the year, with production expected to be around 130,000 tons in October, indicating a slight increase in supply [6].

Core Viewpoint - GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (协鑫科技) has achieved a turnaround in its photovoltaic materials business, reporting a profit of approximately 960 million yuan in Q3 2025, compared to a loss of 1.81 billion yuan in the same period last year [1][2] Financial Performance - The profit includes a post-tax gain of about 640 million yuan from the sale of an associate company. Excluding this non-recurring income, the photovoltaic materials business still demonstrated robust operational profit [1] - The EBITDA for this business segment reached approximately 1.41 billion yuan, a significant improvement from an adjusted LBITDA of about 571 million yuan in the previous year [1] Pricing and Cost Efficiency - The average external selling price of granular silicon was 42.12 yuan/kg in Q3 2025, a notable increase from 32.93 yuan/kg in Q2 2025, indicating a recovery in market demand for high-quality granular silicon [1] - The average production cash cost of granular silicon (including R&D costs) decreased to 24.16 yuan/kg, down from 27.07 yuan/kg in Q1 2025, showcasing the company's continuous breakthroughs in energy consumption control, process improvement, and economies of scale [2] Strategic Adjustments - In response to intense competition in the photovoltaic industry, the company has adjusted its operational strategy to focus on production based on sales and maintaining low inventory levels, while enhancing collaboration with upstream and downstream partners [2] - The company aims to promote the quality release of granular silicon capacity and optimize its carbon footprint, contributing to a rational return of prices across the entire industry chain and sustainable development [2] Industry Context - Analysts note that the competitive pressure in the industry is driving technological advancements and encouraging companies to build intellectual property defenses, which supports and promotes the country's new quality productivity [2] - The company's ability to achieve profitability in Q3 2025 is attributed to its comprehensive breakthroughs in technology, cost management, talent acquisition, low-carbon initiatives, and market strategies [2]

Group 1 - GCL-Poly Energy (03800.HK) opened over 4% higher, currently up 4.35%, trading at HKD 1.44 [2] - The trading volume reached HKD 55.2686 million [2]