Investment Rating - The report suggests a low valuation for the real estate sector, recommending to accumulate real estate stocks on dips [5]. Core Views - The real estate market is experiencing downward pressure on prices, with new home prices in 70 cities showing negative month-on-month changes for 27 consecutive months, and second-hand home prices for 28 consecutive months [4][12]. - Recent policies in major cities aim to stimulate demand for improved housing, indicating potential for recovery in the market [4][12]. - The report highlights that the basic market conditions are expected to gradually improve due to the effects of previous policies and the upcoming demand season [5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share real estate sector saw a weekly change of -0.2%, ranking 11th among all sectors, while the Hong Kong real estate sector dropped by -3.3%, also ranking 11th [2]. - The average premium rate for land transactions remains low at 2%, with a significant year-on-year decrease in land transaction volume [2][27]. New Home Sales - In the week of September 20-26, 47 cities recorded new home sales of 380 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 25% but a year-on-year decrease of 4% [3][32]. - Sales in first-tier cities increased by 1% week-on-week and 15% year-on-year, while second-tier cities saw a 41% week-on-week increase [3][32]. Second-Hand Home Sales - The report indicates that 22 cities sold 243 million square meters of second-hand homes, with a week-on-week increase of 2% and a year-on-year increase of 12% [40]. - First-tier cities experienced a 3% decrease week-on-week but a 24% increase year-on-year in second-hand home sales [40]. Policy Developments - New policies in cities like Shanghai aim to enhance housing quality and stimulate demand for improved housing [5][14]. - The focus of future policies will likely be on stimulating demand for improved housing, optimizing public fund policies, and revitalizing existing properties and land [4][12]. Key Companies - The top five companies in terms of land acquisition amounts are China Overseas Land & Investment, Greentown China, Poly Developments, Jianfa Group, and Binjiang Group, with acquisition amounts of 55.1 billion, 54.1 billion, 44 billion, 40 billion, and 34.7 billion respectively [27][28].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" [6] Core Views - The central bank emphasizes the implementation of previously announced financial policies to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on revitalizing existing assets and stabilizing market expectations [1] - The report suggests that the acceleration of supply in core cities and the easing of regulatory policies will likely enhance the progress of existing projects and land reserves, as well as urban renewal policies [1] - Recommended companies include distressed recovery firms such as Jindi Group and New Town Holdings, leading firms maintaining land acquisition intensity like Greentown China and China Jinmao, and local state-owned enterprises with stable diversified operations like Pudong Jinqiao and Waigaoqiao [1] Sales Review (9.20-9.26) - Total transactions in 32 monitored cities reached 16,000 units, a week-on-week increase of 15.1%; cumulative transactions for 2025 stand at 593,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% [2][12] - First-tier cities recorded 4,816 transactions, up 3.4% week-on-week, with a cumulative total of 169,000 units for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [2][12] - Second-tier cities saw 9,563 transactions, a week-on-week increase of 24.5%, with a cumulative total of 353,000 units for 2025, down 8.9% year-on-year [2][12] - Third-tier cities had 1,453 transactions, up 2.7% week-on-week, with a cumulative total of 70,000 units for 2025, down 6.7% year-on-year [2][12] Land Supply (9.15-9.21) - Planned residential land supply across 100 cities is 5.68 million square meters, with a cumulative supply of 17.408 million square meters for 2025, down 16% year-on-year [3][37] - The average floor price for land supply across 100 cities is 6,879 yuan per square meter, with a recent four-week average of 5,264 yuan per square meter, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 15.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [3][39] Land Transactions (9.15-9.21) - Residential land transaction area across 100 cities is 4.75 million square meters, with a cumulative total of 13.908 million square meters for 2025, down 3.7% year-on-year [4][64] - The average transaction floor price for residential land across 100 cities is 3,433 yuan per square meter, down 50.5% week-on-week and down 50.3% year-on-year, with an overall premium rate of 2.8% [4][66]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the broad housing demand in China has reached a bottom, although the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. It predicts that the overall real estate market will continue to stabilize, with policies aimed at stopping the decline and promoting recovery [3][4]. - The report highlights significant policy support, including over 1.6 trillion yuan allocated for three major projects to stabilize the real estate market and support the delivery of nearly 20 million housing units [31][32]. - The report emphasizes the emergence of a new development track driven by favorable housing policies, which will enhance the penetration of quality housing in core cities [3][4]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - For the week of September 20-26, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 2.458 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 17.2%. The transaction volume in first and second-tier cities rose by 15.4%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a significant increase of 43.8% [4][12]. - In September, the total transaction volume for new homes in 34 cities was 8.078 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the week of September 20-26, 2025, second-hand housing transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.148 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 3.8%. Cumulatively, September transactions were up 21.2% year-on-year [12][13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of September 20-26, 2025, 15 key cities launched 1.48 million square meters of new housing, with a transaction volume of 950,000 square meters, resulting in a transaction-to-launch ratio of 0.64. The total available residential area in these cities was 90.309 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 0.6% [21][22]. Policy and News Tracking - The report notes that various local governments are implementing policies to stabilize the real estate market, including subsidies for home purchases and regulations to improve housing quality [31][32]. - Shanghai has introduced new regulations to standardize balcony measurements and support the renovation of old residential areas [31][32]. Company Dynamics - New City Holdings issued USD 1.6 billion in overseas bonds, while Poly Developments announced a plan to issue corporate bonds not exceeding 150 billion yuan [38][39]. - The report tracks significant financing activities, including guarantees provided by major companies for their subsidiaries [38][39].

Core Viewpoint - The Hefei Baoneng City project, which has been stagnant for eight years, is now revitalized through a successful restructuring and collaboration with several major companies, including CITIC Financial Asset Management, Greentown China, China Railway Real Estate, and China Resources Vanguard Life [1][3][4]. Group 1: Project Restructuring and Partnerships - Hefei Baoneng City project has officially embarked on a revival path after eight years of being stalled [3]. - The residential land will be jointly developed by Greentown China and China Railway Real Estate, while the commercial land will be operated by China Resources Vanguard Life, focusing on high-end shopping centers [1][4]. - The project aims to integrate the strengths of various partners to accelerate its restart and enhance confidence, although challenges related to debt and property rights from years of stagnation remain [9]. Group 2: Market Context and Strategic Intent - China Resources Vanguard Life's involvement in the Hefei Baoneng City commercial project aligns with its strategy of light asset management, having previously launched multiple commercial projects in Hefei [4][5]. - Greentown China is expected to introduce high-end product lines in the residential sector, facing pricing challenges given the current market conditions, where the average price in the Binhu New District is 16,100 yuan per square meter [5][9]. - The project was initially planned to include a 565-meter T1 tower, which was intended to be the tallest building in Anhui, but its future remains uncertain due to regulatory and market pressures on super high-rise constructions [9][11].

2025 中期報告 INTERIM REPORT GREENTOWN CHINA HOLDINGS LIMITED 綠城中國控股有限公司 (incorporated in the Cayman Islands with limited liability) (Stock Code: 03900) （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股票代碼：03900） GREENTOWN CHINA HOLDINGS LIMITED 綠城中國控股有限公司 2025 INTERIM REPORT 中期報告 核心價值觀 CORE VALUES 真誠 善意 精緻 完美 Sincerity Kindness Exquisiteness Perfection 杭州桃李桂香園 Hangzhou Taoli Guixiangyuan CONTENTS 目 錄 | 公司簡介 | 2 | 獨立審閱報告 | | --- | --- | --- | | Corporate Profile | | Independent Review Report | | 公司資料 | 4 | 中期簡明綜合損益及其他全面收益表 | | Corporate Inf ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The real estate market in August 2025 showed a narrowing year-on-year decline in transaction volume due to low base effects, while land auction premiums in first-tier cities reached a six-year high [1][2]. - The overall performance of the real estate sector underperformed the CSI 300 index, with an absolute return of 6.5% and a relative return of -3.9% [2][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy adjustments in major cities to stimulate market activity, particularly in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [4][24]. Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In August, new home transaction area in 40 cities was 859.1 million square meters, down 0.5% month-on-month and down 13.5% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 5.0% for the first eight months [14][17]. - First-tier cities experienced an expanded year-on-year decline in new home transactions, while second-tier cities saw a narrowing decline, and third- and fourth-tier cities turned positive [15][16]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home transaction area in 18 cities was 715.6 million square meters in August, down 9.2% month-on-month and down 6.4% year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 7.5% for the first eight months [22][23]. - Year-on-year declines in second-hand home transactions narrowed in first- and second-tier cities, while third- and fourth-tier cities showed positive growth [23]. Inventory and Absorption - New home inventory increased month-on-month, with an overall absorption cycle of 17.1 months, down 0.3 months from the previous month [4][9]. - The average opening absorption rate in 30 cities improved to 42% in August, up 9 percentage points month-on-month and 13 percentage points year-on-year [4][9]. Land Market - Overall land auction activity declined month-on-month, but first-tier cities saw land premium rates reach a six-year high, averaging 22.3% [4][12]. - The average land floor price decreased by 13.4% month-on-month and 21.5% year-on-year [12]. Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies reported a sales decline of 16.5% year-on-year in August, with a total sales amount of 225.6 billion yuan [4][12]. - The land acquisition amount for the top 100 companies increased by 34.9% year-on-year in August, although it decreased by 27.1% month-on-month [4][12]. Financing - The financing scale for the real estate industry decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month in August, with a total issuance of 55.3 billion yuan [4][12]. - The average issuance interest rate was 2.51%, showing a slight decrease compared to previous periods [4][12]. Policy - Recent policy adjustments in major cities aim to support the real estate market, with a focus on urban renewal and easing purchase restrictions [4][24]. - The report highlights the significance of these policies in stabilizing market expectations and promoting demand [4][24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that new housing transaction areas have shown a month-on-month increase, while real estate development investment has decreased year-on-year from January to August 2025 [3] - The report highlights that the decline in housing prices has been consistent since 2022, with a significant drop in both new and second-hand housing prices across 70 cities, although the rate of decline has started to narrow due to supportive policies [5][16] - It emphasizes that the relationship between population growth and housing prices is not straightforward, as effective housing demand driven by economic development and income growth is crucial for influencing prices [5][25] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The real estate market has entered a downward trend since 2022, with new and second-hand housing prices experiencing a decline for over 40 months [5][16] - As of August 2025, the new housing price index across 70 cities has decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, while the second-hand housing price index has dropped by 5.5% [16][20] Population Impact - The report concludes that population factors are long-term variables with limited mid-term impact on housing prices, as the marginal changes in housing prices are influenced more by monetary policy, supply-demand relationships, and economic expectations [25][39] - A regression analysis across several developed countries shows that housing price indices do not have a significant correlation with population growth rates [40][42] International Experience - The report draws parallels with international experiences, noting that stable fiscal and monetary policies are essential for stabilizing housing prices after declines [6][46] - It cites examples from the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, where coordinated fiscal and monetary policies have successfully supported housing market recovery after significant downturns [46][49] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate companies with strong credit ratings and solid fundamentals in urban areas, such as China Overseas Development and Poly Developments [7] - It also suggests that companies excelling in both residential and commercial real estate, as well as those providing high-quality property management services, are well-positioned for growth [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the impact of mid-term population changes on housing prices in developed countries/regions is limited, as there is no significant positive correlation between housing price indices and population growth rates or numbers [1] - From 2022, housing prices in 70 cities have entered a downward trend, with a widening decline expected in Q3 2024, although the year-on-year decline has narrowed since Q4 due to supportive policies [1] - The current adjustment cycle in the housing market has seen both new and second-hand housing price indices decline for over 40 months [1] Group 2 - Historical data shows that housing prices in developed countries/regions have experienced fluctuations since the 1980s, with price corrections often exceeding those in China, but eventually stabilizing [2] - Key factors for stabilizing and recovering housing prices include coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, such as large-scale quantitative easing, interest rate cuts, and fiscal subsidies [2] - A stable policy outlook, low interest rate environment, and improved supply-demand structure are crucial for halting the decline and stabilizing the real estate market [2] Group 3 - The stabilization of housing prices is influenced by multiple factors, including monetary policy, supply-demand relationships, and economic expectations, rather than solely by population dynamics [3] - Recommended investment targets include strong credit property companies with good urban fundamentals and leading product capabilities, as well as firms that can drive both residential and commercial real estate [3] - The increasing penetration rate of second-hand housing indicates a promising outlook for the real estate after-service sector [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the majority of Hong Kong's property stocks experienced an increase, with notable gains from companies such as Sunac China and Country Garden, which rose over 3% [1] - Other companies in the sector, including New World Development, China Overseas Land & Investment, Vanke, and Greentown China, also saw increases exceeding 2% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of "good houses" is a strategic development direction for residential products, transitioning from policy concepts to industry practices, and is expected to become a long-term trend in the real estate market [1][3]. Group 1: Development and Policy Background of "Good Houses" - The demand for "good houses" is driven by urbanization and a shift in consumer expectations from merely having a house to living in a quality home [3][5]. - The industry's transformation is influenced by policies such as "housing is for living, not for speculation," leading to price control measures that have impacted profit margins for real estate companies [4][5]. - As quality issues in housing become more prominent, the industry is shifting focus from scale to quality, making "good houses" a consensus and development direction [6][5]. Group 2: Real Estate Companies' "Good House" Strategies and Case Studies - Leading real estate companies like Poly, China Overseas, and China Resources are launching "good house" strategies focusing on safety, comfort, green living, and smart technology [7][8]. - Companies are establishing comprehensive technical standards that cover the entire lifecycle from design to service, reflecting a shift towards refined management [8][9]. - The strategies are transitioning from qualitative claims to quantifiable controls, with companies like China Overseas achieving measurable improvements in sound insulation and pollution reduction [8][9]. Group 3: Five Dimensions of "Good House" Product Practices - Safety performance is emphasized as the first guarantee of quality living [30]. - Comfort and livability have evolved from merely increasing physical space to optimizing space efficiency and human-centered design [31][32]. - Health environment assurance has shifted from basic physical indicators to a multi-dimensional approach that includes sound, light, air, and water quality [44][45]. - Green and low-carbon initiatives are integrated into daily life through innovative designs and technologies [52]. - Smart technology is advancing from passive control to proactive service, enhancing user experience through intelligent systems [53][59]. Group 4: Future Outlook for "Good Houses" - The construction of "good houses" will be a continuous process of deepening and refining, with policies expected to become more detailed and standardized [70]. - The industry will continue to transition from traditional scale expansion to quality enhancement, focusing on the four dimensions of safety, comfort, green living, and smart technology [70].