Group 1 - Cobalt stocks continue to rise, with Liqin Resources (02245) up 6.68% to HKD 17.4 and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) (03993) up 0.55% to HKD 12.9 [1] - The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo updated its cobalt export policy on September 20, extending the export ban to October 15, 2025, and setting export quotas for 2026-2027 at only 44% of annual production [1] - CITIC Securities predicts that the export quotas will lead to global cobalt supply being significantly below normal levels from 2025 to 2027, which is expected to drive cobalt prices higher [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley notes that the extension of the cobalt export ban until October 15 will be followed by quotas, with the 2026-2027 quota set at 40% of normal production [1] - If Luoyang Molybdenum receives a proportional quota, potential sales for Q4 2025 could be approximately 8,600 tons, and around 43,600 tons for 2026-2027 [1] - Minsheng Securities highlights that Liqin Resources has a large-scale nickel production capacity in Indonesia with cost advantages, positioning the company to benefit significantly from rising cobalt prices [1]

Group 1 - Cobalt stocks continue to rise, with Liqin Resources up 6.68% to HKD 17.4 and Luoyang Molybdenum up 0.55% to HKD 12.9 [1] - The Congolese government updated its cobalt export policy on September 20, extending the export ban to October 15, 2025, and setting export quotas for 2026-2027 at only 44% of annual production [1] - CITIC Securities predicts that the export quotas will lead to significantly lower global cobalt supply from 2025 to 2027, resulting in a strong potential increase in cobalt prices [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley notes that if Luoyang Molybdenum receives proportional quotas, potential sales could be approximately 8,600 tons in Q4 2025 and about 43,600 tons for 2026-2027 [1] - Minsheng Securities highlights that Liqin Resources has a large-scale wet nickel production capacity in Indonesia, which positions the company to benefit significantly from rising cobalt prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd., is a significant player in the non-ferrous metal mining industry, focusing on the production of molybdenum, tungsten, and precious metals like gold, with a strong emphasis on expanding its precious metal business [2][3]. Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. was established on December 22, 1999, and listed on October 9, 2012. The company is primarily engaged in the mining, selection, smelting, deep processing, and trading of precious metals [7]. - The company's main business revenue composition includes refined metal product trading (48.56%), concentrate product trading (38.31%), copper (27.14%), cobalt (6.04%), molybdenum (3.12%), phosphorus (2.23%), niobium (1.88%), tungsten (1.17%), and others (0.11%) [7]. Production and Financial Performance - The company holds an 80% stake in the NPM copper-gold mine in Australia, with gold equity production guidance for 2023 set at 25,000 to 27,000 ounces, representing a year-on-year increase of 56% to 69% [2]. - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 94.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 60.07% to 8.671 billion yuan [8]. - The company is the second-largest producer of phosphorus fertilizer in Brazil and has a complete phosphorus industry chain, with phosphorus-related product revenue of 2.834 billion yuan in 2017, accounting for 11.82% of total revenue [3]. Market Activity - On September 22, the company's stock rose by 1.60%, with a trading volume of 2.481 billion yuan and a market capitalization of 271.922 billion yuan [1]. - The company has experienced a net outflow of 7.6914 million yuan from major funds today, with a continuous reduction in major fund positions over the past three days [4][5]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 15.95% to 237,500, with an average of 0 circulating shares per person [8]. - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 648 million shares, and Huaxia SSE 50 ETF, which holds 138 million shares, both of which have increased their holdings compared to the previous period [9].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the recent Congo export policy for cobalt is expected to drive prices upward, with a significant reduction in export quotas leading to increased demand for replenishment from downstream enterprises [6] - The report suggests a bullish outlook for precious metals following the recent FOMC meeting, despite some market adjustments, indicating a potential slow bull market for gold [4] - Copper prices are anticipated to break through key resistance levels, supported by seasonal demand increases in China [5] - The aluminum market is expected to see price increases due to rising downstream consumption as the National Day holiday approaches [5] - Lithium demand is projected to grow significantly, driven by a major contract signed by CATL for lithium iron phosphate materials, indicating a strong outlook for lithium prices [7] - Uranium prices are expected to rise due to potential export restrictions from Russia, which could significantly impact global supply [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 6522.39, with a weekly high of 6795.38 and a low of 3912.76 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw declines: copper down 1.19%, aluminum down 1.33%, zinc down 2.88%, lead down 0.17%, and tin down 1.53%. Precious metals had mixed results with gold down 0.22% and silver up 1.13% [21] Inventory Levels - Global visible inventories increased for copper by 7945 tons, aluminum by 8010 tons, and zinc by 2724 tons, while lead saw a decrease of 4085 tons [29]

Group 1 - UBS reports that industrial metal prices are supported by positive macroeconomic factors, including US interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, confidence in AI trade, and China's anti-involution policies along with potential additional stimulus measures from China [1] - The overall outlook for industrial metals is improving, with the risk of a significant short-term demand slowdown diminishing, while the medium-term fundamentals for copper and aluminum remain attractive [1] - UBS has raised its copper price forecasts for this year and next by 3%, from $4.24 and $4.68 per pound to $4.37 and $4.80 respectively, due to limited supply growth and recovering traditional demand [1] Group 2 - UBS has increased its earnings estimates for Zijin Mining (601899), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), and Jiangxi Copper (600362) by 4%, 5%, and 5% respectively for this year, and by 9%, 6%, and 5% for next year [2] - The firm has also raised its earnings forecasts for China Hongqiao, Aluminum Corporation of China (601600), and Tianshan Aluminum (002532) by 5% to 8% for next year [2]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) (03993) has seen a stock price increase of over 3%, currently trading at 12.85 HKD with a transaction volume of 574 million HKD, driven by strong resource assets and positive market outlook [1] Group 1: Company Assets and Resources - The company possesses globally scarce high-quality copper and cobalt mining assets, with significant resource reserves and development prospects [1] - The two core mining areas in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), TFM and KFM, have a combined copper resource of 34.44 million tons and cobalt resource of 5.4 million tons [1] - The acquisition of the Ecuador Cangrejos gold mine, with a gold resource of 638 tons, is expected to expand the company's resource portfolio and is projected to start production before 2029, with an annual gold output of 11.5 tons [1] Group 2: Market Outlook and Analyst Ratings - Morgan Stanley has issued a report indicating that Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price is expected to rise in the next 30 days, maintaining a buy rating with a target price of 11.7 HKD [1] - The DRC has extended its cobalt export ban until October 15, with subsequent implementation of quotas, which could significantly impact global cobalt supply, as the DRC accounts for 70% of the world's cobalt supply [1] - If Luoyang Molybdenum receives a proportional quota, potential sales for Q4 2025 could be approximately 8,600 tons, and around 43,600 tons for 2026-2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) has seen a stock price increase of over 3%, attributed to its ownership of high-quality copper and cobalt mining assets, with expectations for further price appreciation in the next 30 days according to Morgan Stanley [1] Group 1: Company Assets - The company possesses globally scarce high-quality copper and cobalt mining assets, with significant resource reserves and development prospects [1] - The two core mining areas in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), TFM and KFM, have a combined copper resource of 34.44 million tons and cobalt resource of 5.4 million tons [1] - The company is diversifying its portfolio with assets in Brazil (niobium and phosphate) and China (molybdenum and tungsten), creating a counter-cyclical resource combination [1] Group 2: Future Growth Potential - The acquisition of the Ecuador KGH gold mine, with a gold resource of 638 tons, is expected to expand the company's resource base, with production anticipated to start before 2029, yielding an annual output of 11.5 tons of gold [1] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the DRC's cobalt export ban has been extended to October 15, with subsequent implementation of quotas, which could significantly impact global cobalt supply [1] - If Luoyang Molybdenum receives a proportional quota, potential sales for Q4 2025 could reach approximately 8,600 tons, and around 43,600 tons for 2026-2027 [1]

该行指，刚果民主共和国宣布将钴出口禁令延长至10月15日，随后将实施出口配额，2026至2027年配额 将为正常产量的40%。大摩表示，假设洛阳钼业能获得与国家层面相似的配额比例，其潜在销售量可能 在2025年第四季为约8,600吨，在2026至2027年为约4.36万吨，预期钴供应将受到重大影响，因为刚果民 主共和国占全球供应的70%。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，相信洛阳钼业(03993)未来30日内股价将绝对上涨，估计此 情境有约70%至80%(或非常可能)的概率，维持"增持"评级及目标价11.7港元，此按现金流折现率作估 值。 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley believes that Luoyang Molybdenum (603993)(03993) will see an absolute increase in stock price within the next 30 days, estimating a probability of about 70% to 80% for this scenario, maintaining an "Overweight" rating and a target price of HKD 11.7, based on discounted cash flow valuation [1] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has announced an extension of the cobalt export ban until October 15, followed by the implementation of export quotas, with quotas for 2026 to 2027 set at 40% of normal production [1] - Assuming Luoyang Molybdenum can obtain a quota ratio similar to the national level, its potential sales volume could reach approximately 8,600 tons in Q4 2025 and 43,600 tons in 2026 to 2027, with significant impacts expected on cobalt supply due to the DRC accounting for 70% of global supply [1]

大摩：相信洛阳钼业未来30日内股价将上涨，目标价11.7港元。 ...