中信证券研报称，受益政策、技术和市场三维驱动，商业航天迎来景气高企。在太空算力需求拉动下， 火箭、卫星结构轻量化以及特殊应用环境对于碳纤维材料提出更高要求，石墨纤维凭借耐高温、高强高 模以及低热膨胀系数等优势，渗透率有望进一步提升。我们预计伴随着下游需求放量，在国产化驱动 下，布局石墨纤维的相关企业有望充分受益。 ...

中信证券研报称，铁锂行业盈利有望迎来周期性的拐点。需求端，动力领域铁锂渗透率的进一步提升以 及储能的高景气度带来需求的快速增长，我们测算2026年全球磷酸铁锂正极材料出货量有望达到525万 吨，同比+36%；供给端，我们预计2026年增长有限，整体稼动率有望进一步提升，其中高端品仍较为 紧缺。当前铁锂盈利能力处于周期底部，伴随供需结构改善有望迎来修复空间，产品高端化、出海趋势 的进一步明确有望为头部企业带来超额利润。重点推荐铁锂行业内头部企业。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Guangtai Vacuum Technology Co., Ltd. in its application for listing on the Beijing Stock Exchange, highlighting the company's unique market position and the involvement of CITIC Securities as both a sponsor and investor [2][18]. Company Overview - Guangtai Vacuum is a high-tech enterprise focused on the research, development, manufacturing, and sales of vacuum equipment, particularly in the rare earth permanent magnet industry [4]. - The company aims to raise 168 million yuan by issuing up to 17 million shares for the expansion of its vacuum melting furnace and sintering furnace production, as well as the construction of a research and product display center [5]. Listing Application Process - Guangtai Vacuum submitted its listing application on June 23, 2025, and received acceptance after a swift process, completing the entire listing guidance in just three months [5][6]. - The company became the third entity sponsored by CITIC Securities to gain the opportunity for review by the listing committee in 2025 [8]. Challenges in Listing Approval - The listing application was deferred due to concerns from the listing committee regarding the accuracy of revenue recognition and the sustainability of the company's performance [11][12]. - Guangtai Vacuum's revenue growth showed a significant increase in 2023, but signs of fatigue were evident in 2024, raising questions about the sustainability of its performance [11]. Revenue Recognition Issues - The company’s revenue recognition method, which requires installation and acceptance by customers, has led to delays in revenue confirmation, with some projects taking over 15 months for acceptance [15][16]. - The listing committee requested further clarification on contracts and revenue recognition practices to address these concerns [16]. CITIC Securities' Role - CITIC Securities is utilizing a "sponsorship + direct investment" model for the first time in the Beijing Stock Exchange, which allows them to potentially gain equity premium in addition to sponsorship fees [18][19]. - This model is seen as a way to enhance the participation of securities firms in smaller projects on the Beijing Stock Exchange, thereby supporting financing for small and medium-sized enterprises [20].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share private placement market is experiencing a significant recovery, with fundraising in 2025 reaching 824.45 billion yuan, nearly quadrupling from 206.65 billion yuan in 2024, and surpassing 780.45 billion yuan in 2022, signaling a rebound in market confidence [1][2][3]. Fundraising Overview - As of December 29, 2025, 155 listed companies have raised a total of 824.45 billion yuan through private placements, marking a substantial increase compared to previous years [2][3]. - The fundraising completion rate for 2025 stands at 98.81%, a notable improvement of 12.25 percentage points from 2024, indicating strong market support for quality projects [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The recovery in the A-share market since September 2024 has enhanced the capacity for absorbing refinancing funds, leading to a decrease in the difficulty of project issuance [4]. - A shift towards a more lenient regulatory environment and faster review processes by exchanges has facilitated smoother approvals for private placements [4]. - The backlog of financing needs from 2023 and 2024 has been released, prompting many companies to seize the opportunity to launch refinancing projects [4]. Underwriting Landscape - The total underwriting amount for private placements by securities firms surged to 716.89 billion yuan in 2025, more than five times that of 2024 [6]. - CITIC Securities led the underwriting with 188.56 billion yuan, followed by Guotai Junan and Bank of China Securities, which ranked second and third, respectively [6][7]. - The increase in underwriting amounts does not correspond to a significant rise in industry revenue, which only slightly increased to 1.05 billion yuan in 2025 [8]. Competitive Factors - Bank of China Securities achieved a high ranking in underwriting due to securing large-scale projects from major banks, contributing significantly to its total [7]. - CITIC Securities dominated the market by being the lead underwriter for all four major private placements exceeding 100 billion yuan in 2025 [7].

用友网络科技股份有限公司向港交所提交上市申请书，联席保荐人为招银国际、中信证券。 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Leading liquor companies are holding important meetings to convey their commitment to adjustments, reforms, and channel rebalancing, which is beneficial for the long-term healthy development of the industry [2] - The white liquor sector has seen major companies implementing measures to control shipments, reduce burdens on distributors, and promote sales, aimed at lowering channel inventory [2][3] - The company anticipates that the actual sales of white liquor during the 2026 Spring Festival will remain stable, supported by various factors including a longer holiday and improved consumption scenarios [3] Group 2: White Liquor Sector Analysis - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the white liquor sector is approximately 20x, indicating it is at a mid-to-long-term bottom range, reflecting significant pessimistic expectations [3] - Shareholder returns for leading white liquor companies have been steadily increasing since 2024, with dividend rates generally above 65%, enhancing investment safety margins [3] Group 3: Beer Sector Analysis - The beer industry is experiencing a slight decline in production, with a total output of 33.18 million kiloliters from January to November 2025, down 0.3% year-on-year [4] - The industry remains highly concentrated, with competition shifting towards value chains and product quality, driven by consumer demand for high-quality products [4] - The beer sector is expected to see a mild recovery from a bottom position in 2026, with an overall trend of stable volume and price increases [4]

Summary of the Securities Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The securities industry is expected to continue a slow bull market in 2026, supported by proprietary and brokerage businesses, despite a decline in commission rates from 0.195% at the end of last year to approximately 0.17% by the end of this year [1][5] - The overall valuation of the securities sector has decreased to around 1.4 times, which is at the 30th percentile of the past decade [3][4] Key Points Performance in 2025 - The securities sector underperformed compared to other financial sub-sectors like insurance and banking, despite a significant profit growth of over 60% in the first three quarters, driven mainly by brokerage and proprietary trading [1][4] - Major brokerages such as Dongfang Caifu, CITIC Securities, Guosen Securities, and Galaxy Securities achieved a return on equity (ROE) of approximately 9%-10% [1][4] Focus Areas for 2026 - Investment strategies should focus on the following areas: - **Asset Management (AM)**: Expected to see a positive growth rate in 2025, but the net income growth was only 4% in the first three quarters. The introduction of new public fund commission regulations is anticipated to boost revenue growth in 2026 [2][11] - **Investment Banking (IB)**: Currently at the bottom of the cycle, with a potential recovery as the market improves [9][13] - **International Business**: High concentration among leading firms like CITIC, CICC, and Huatai, with expected growth in 2026 as these firms leverage their competitive advantages in Hong Kong [2][12] Market Conditions - The A-share IPO market remains tight, with a focus on balancing investment and financing, leading to a smaller number and scale of IPOs. The suspension of IPOs since the end of 2023 continues [1][8] - The Hong Kong IPO and refinancing market has recovered quickly, but the profitability of these activities is not as robust as that of A-share IPOs [10] Future Projections - The overall ROE for the securities industry is projected to be around 7.5% in 2025, with leading firms achieving approximately 10%. The growth in profitability is expected to be modest, reaching around 8% [2][13] - The proprietary trading business is shifting towards OCI accounts, which may enhance the stability of the profit statement but reduce its elasticity [6] Additional Insights - The focus on investment banking, asset management, and international business is crucial due to their potential for growth and improvement in market conditions [7][9] - The concentration of international business among a few leading firms indicates a strong competitive barrier, which may benefit these firms in the long run [12][14]

本文来自格隆汇专栏：中信证券研究 作者：陈采赋 张君翔 薛姣 童成墩 徐广鸿 港股保险今年表现随行就市，但基本面显著优于市场整体；且无论是在金融板块内还是红利资产框架下比较，轮动空间存在显著机遇。虽然港股保险相较 A股今年已有明显超额收益，但无论是静态对比还是结合盈利能力回归，港股中资保险的估值修复仍大有可为，尤其在这轮修复行情中仍尚未充分计价盈 利能力改善，继续提供港股中资保险表现的空间。周期视角来看，保险公司正步入资产负债表良性扩张阶段，政策端反内卷助力降本增效，产品端分红险 转型降低经营压力，渠道端银保渠道推动储蓄存款持续转化，投资端增配权益提升市场定价权，保险股料将开启新一轮上行周期。 ▍港股保险业绩加速，轮动空间存机遇。 相较港股今年主要靠估值扩张驱动的行情，港股保险行情具备明确的基本面支撑，截至2025年12月12日，2025年的盈利预期相较今年3月中上调了 37.5%，同期恒生综指25Y盈利预期下调3.5%；2026年港股保险的盈利预期则相较8月初上调了17.1%，同期恒生综指在材料与保险贡献下的26Y盈利预期 企稳。但港股保险全年的估值修复明显不及市场整体。在金融板块内比较，港股保险在2023 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，预计2026年油散进入周期兑现阶段。一方面，船队老化和黑 白船队的割裂将导致市场运力供给不足，截至2025年11月被制裁运力在全球VLCC中的占比为15.7%， 较年初增长5.8ppts，导致被制裁运力开始逐步转化为浮舱增加；另一方面，中信证券测算到2027年20岁 以上VLCC运力占比将提升4pcts至23%，新船交付或难以应对老旧船的替换需求，2026年供给端强约束 将进一步显现。 干散货：美国降息周期有望增强新兴国家需求张力，同时西芒杜铁矿石项目产量增长和中美潜在的大豆 贸易将提供Cape和Pana边际增量。 2025年上半年，受上游大宗商品价格下行和需求偏弱影响，BDI指数同比下滑；进入2025H2，资源储备 叠加上游出货增加，导致大宗商品运输需求快速修复，另外国内反内卷政策推进对需求端也有所助力， 我们看到大型船贡献了超半数的指数增长。展望2026年，我们认为美国降息周期背景下，新兴国家需求 张力有望提升，同时地产端对干散货的边际影响将逐步减弱。 2026年合规市场需求结构性增长&低油价背景下，原油补库需求或为主要边际变量，中信证券预计年化 VLCC运价中枢将 ...

中信证券发布研报称，港股保险今年表现随行就市，但基本面显著优于市场整体；且无论是在金融板块内还是红利资产框架下比较，轮动空间存在显著机 遇。虽然港股保险相较A股今年已有明显超额收益，但无论是静态对比还是结合盈利能力回归，港股中资保险的估值修复仍大有可为，尤其在这轮修复行 情中仍尚未充分计价盈利能力改善，继续提供港股中资保险表现的空间。 周期视角来看，保险公司正步入资产负债表良性扩张阶段，政策端反内卷助力降本增效，产品端分红险转型降低经营压力，渠道端银保渠道推动储蓄存款 持续转化，投资端增配权益提升市场定价权，保险股料将开启新一轮上行周期。 中信证券主要观点如下： 港股保险业绩加速，轮动空间存机遇。 相较港股今年主要靠估值扩张驱动的行情，港股保险行情具备明确的基本面支撑，截至2025年12月12日，2025年的盈利预期相较今年3月中上调了 37.5%，同期恒生综指25Y盈利预期下调3.5%；2026年港股保险的盈利预期则相较8月初上调了17.1%，同期恒生综指在材料与保险贡献下的26Y盈利预期 企稳。但港股保险全年的估值修复明显不及市场整体。在金融板块内比较，港股保险在2023年往后持续跑输券商与银行；估值修复 ...