Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that "low expectations and low valuations" combined with the resilience of consumer spending are expected to enhance the funding preference for consumer allocations, with a focus on the potential recovery of consumption as the economic fundamentals begin to improve [1] Group 1: Current Market Analysis - The overall consumption sector is currently weak, with structural differentiation and company performance facing downward pressure, leading to a "bottoming out" phase for earnings and valuations [2] - Retail sales growth in the first half of 2025 showed signs of recovery due to government policies like "trade-in for new," but the growth rate fell to 3% in September as the effectiveness of these policies diminished [1][2] - High-end consumption is stabilizing, with luxury brands like LVMH and Kering reporting positive growth in Asia, and Macau's gaming revenue reaching over 91% of 2019 levels in October [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The historical performance of the consumer sector during previous bull markets suggests that significant increases typically occur when economic fundamentals improve, with the current cycle expected to show structural recovery rather than rapid growth [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring high-end consumption recovery driven by capital market wealth effects and operational turning points due to supply-side optimization [3] Group 3: Long-term Structural Opportunities - The report stresses the importance of focusing on structural changes in consumer demand, which reflect a long-term trend from goods to services and from survival to experience [4] - Key areas for long-term investment include new products related to emotional and health needs, advancements in technology (AI and biotechnology), changes in distribution channels, and expansion into new markets [4]

人民财讯11月12日电，中信证券研报认为，中长期来看制约我国机构租赁行业发展的四大制约因素已经 改变，住房租赁机构化率还有较大增长空间。短期来看，正风起云涌的不动产投资机构化和不动产基金 发展，可能以长租公寓作为先锋资产，推动部分资产重估。轻资产平台也否极泰来，迎来发展机遇。在 重资产端，建议投资者聚焦区域要素；在轻资产平台端，建议投资者聚焦协同和规模要素。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The analysis by CITIC Securities indicates that consumer performance tends to improve when the economic fundamentals begin to recover, with the elasticity of earnings determining the sustainability and resilience of the uptrend [1] Group 1: Current Economic Environment - The current macroeconomic environment remains weak, suggesting that the recovery of consumer sentiment will take time [1] - Short-term opportunities in consumption may arise from potential fiscal stimulus policies [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - For 2026, the focus should be on operational turning points driven by wealth effect transmission and supply-side optimization [1] - Long-term investment strategies should emphasize changes in consumer structure, particularly in four key areas: new products/categories (high certainty demand in emotions and health), new technologies (AI+ and biotechnology), new channels (channel transformation under price-performance demand), and new markets (internationalization and market penetration) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that consumer performance tends to improve when the economic fundamentals begin to recover, with profitability elasticity determining the sustainability and resilience of the uptrend [1] Group 1: Current Economic Environment - The current macroeconomic environment remains weak, suggesting that the recovery of consumer sentiment will take time [1] - Short-term consumer opportunities may arise from potential fiscal stimulus policies [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - By 2026, the focus should be on opportunities driven by wealth effect transmission and supply-side optimization leading to operational turning points [1] - Long-term investment strategies should emphasize changes in consumer structure, particularly in four key areas: new products/categories (high certainty demand in emotions and health), new technologies (AI and biotechnology), new channels (channel transformation under cost-performance demand), and new markets (internationalization and market penetration) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a differentiated recovery in the service sector consumption by 2025, influenced by macroeconomic factors, wealth effects, competitive dynamics, and policy guidance [1] Demand Side - The expectation of a K-shaped recovery trend remains, with leading brands in the mid-range consumer segment benefiting from a low base effect [1] - The demand for overseas expansion is transitioning from pilot exploration to large-scale replication [1] Supply Side - Normalized supply innovation is expected to enhance emotional value premiums, with policy guidance playing a positive role [1] - AI empowerment is anticipated to improve efficiency and optimize costs [1] Investment Recommendations - Three main investment lines are suggested: 1. Companies in the gaming and ready-to-drink beverage sectors with high demand elasticity during recovery [1] 2. Quality targets in the leisure travel sector [1] 3. Leading companies in cyclical sectors that are stable and have growth potential [1]

11月11日，中信证券在深圳举办主题为"奋进新征程"的2026年资本市场年会。在资本市场论坛中，中信 证券多位首席分析师认为，中国经济将延续在波动中复苏的态势，宏观方面将持续以积极的财政政策与 适度宽松的货币政策提供有力支撑。 在全球环境、科技趋势与制度变革的共同驱动下，中国资产的红利时代已然开启，从制造业定价权重 估、企业出海深化到科技行情延续，三大配置主线清晰浮现。 对于大类资产配置，明明认为，全球宏观环境整体偏宽松，债市方面，国债利率或将先下后上，需要关 注两阶段主导因素的变化；外汇方面，人民币汇率有望温和升值；商品方面，黄金作为配置资产的长期 价值仍具吸引力。 ● 刘英杰 谭丁豪 中国资本市场迈入全新发展阶段 "中国资本市场已迈入全新发展阶段，焕发蓬勃生机。"中信证券总经理邹迎光在致辞中表示，展望"十 五五"时期，在全球环境、科技趋势与制度变革的共同驱动下，中国资本市场将呈现新的特征，在新征 程上奋进前行。 具体而言，邹迎光认为，全球变局下的产业与金融重构带来外部破局契机，当前百年变局加速演进，全 球产业与金融格局正在深度调整，中国国际影响力与全球治理参与能力持续增强。在产业层面，中国制 造在复杂环境 ...

Economic Outlook - Multiple institutions predict that China's economic growth will remain stable in 2026, with targets around 5% [2][3] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) expects a GDP growth of approximately 4.9% in 2026, supported by fiscal expansion and improved local government finances [2][3] - UBS anticipates that domestic economic activities will maintain resilience, with a potential "low at the beginning, high at the end" growth pattern for 2026 [2][3] Policy and Fiscal Measures - CICC forecasts that supply-side policies will focus on enhancing quality consumption while reducing inefficient capacity [3] - Fiscal policies are expected to remain proactive, with local special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds increasing in scale [3] - Monetary policy may include two reserve requirement ratio cuts totaling about 100 basis points and one to two interest rate cuts of 10 basis points each [3] A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market is transitioning from domestic-focused companies to global multinational corporations, indicating a shift towards a mature market [4] - Earnings for A-shares are projected to recover, with non-financial A-share growth expected to reach around 10% [4] - The market is likely to experience a more balanced style in 2026, driven by cyclical industries approaching supply-demand equilibrium [5] Industry Trends - Key industry themes include the upgrading of traditional manufacturing, the globalization of Chinese enterprises, and the expansion of AI applications [5] - The "new economy" sectors are expected to grow faster than other economic sectors from 2026 to 2030, with their GDP contribution increasing by 3 percentage points by 2030 [3] - The macroeconomic environment and innovation trends are favorable for growth styles, with a potential shift in market dynamics due to past capacity reduction cycles [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to continue its recovery amidst fluctuations, supported by proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [1][5]. Group 1: Capital Market Development - The Chinese capital market has entered a new development phase, driven by global changes, technological trends, and institutional reforms, enhancing its vitality [2]. - The restructuring of industries and finance under global changes presents opportunities for external breakthroughs, with China's international influence and participation in global governance increasing [2]. - China's manufacturing sector has shown resilience, with a 7.1% year-on-year increase in exports in the first three quarters, indicating a strong position in the global supply chain [2]. Group 2: Technological Trends - The transition from old to new driving forces in technology is creating new opportunities in the capital market, with significant breakthroughs in key technologies [3]. - The development of new productive forces, such as artificial intelligence and biotechnology, is changing traditional perceptions of the technology gap between China and the U.S., improving market risk appetite [3]. - The market is increasingly aligning with new economic developments and the internationalization of industries, with the electronic sector's market capitalization surpassing that of the banking sector this year [3]. Group 3: Institutional Reforms - The optimization of the institutional environment is shaping a new market ecology, enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of capital market systems [4]. - Future reforms will focus on direct financing and supporting high-quality companies' listings, fostering a competitive market ecosystem [4]. - There is a notable trend of converting household savings into investments, with significant room for increasing the proportion of residents' equity asset allocation [4]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is projected to achieve a growth target of around 5.0% in 2025 and maintain approximately 4.9% in 2026, with a "front low, back high" growth rhythm anticipated [5]. - Fiscal policies are expected to be more proactive, with a deficit ratio likely to remain around 4% and an increase in special bond quotas directed towards project construction [5]. - The global macro environment is generally loose, with expectations for a moderate appreciation of the RMB and continued attractiveness of gold as a long-term investment asset [5]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - The investment landscape is becoming clearer, with three main lines of focus: the revaluation of manufacturing pricing power, deepening corporate internationalization, and the continuation of the technology market [7][8]. - The manufacturing sector is shifting from scale expansion to pricing power and profit conversion, with a focus on industries like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy [8]. - The corporate internationalization process is expanding from industrial products to technology services and creative industries, with key sectors including machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military equipment [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to continue its recovery amidst fluctuations, supported by proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [1][5]. Group 1: Capital Market Development - The Chinese capital market has entered a new development phase, driven by global changes, technological trends, and institutional reforms [2]. - The restructuring of industries and finance globally presents opportunities for China, with a notable 7.1% year-on-year increase in exports in the first three quarters of this year [2]. - The resilience of Chinese manufacturing is highlighted, with local leading enterprises expected to transition into multinational giants, enhancing their pricing power [2]. Group 2: Technological Trends - The transition from old to new economic drivers, fueled by technology, is creating new opportunities in the capital market [3]. - Key technologies in China, such as artificial intelligence and biotechnology, are significantly developing, improving market risk appetite and attracting global capital [3]. - The market is shifting towards new development trends, with the electronic sector's market capitalization surpassing that of the banking sector this year [3]. Group 3: Institutional Reforms - The optimization of the institutional environment is expected to reshape the market ecosystem, enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of capital market systems [4]. - The focus will be on coordinating the development of investment and financing functions, with an emphasis on direct financing and supporting quality enterprises [4]. - There is a notable trend of converting household savings into investments, with significant room for increasing the proportion of residents' equity asset allocation [4]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is projected to achieve a growth target of around 5.0% in 2025 and maintain approximately 4.9% in 2026, with a "front low and back high" growth rhythm anticipated [5]. - Fiscal policies are expected to be more proactive, with a deficit ratio likely to remain around 4% and an increase in special bond quotas directed towards project construction [5]. - Monetary policy will continue to have room for adjustments, with structural monetary tools expected to remain effective [5]. Group 5: Asset Allocation - The global macro environment is generally loose, with attention needed on the changes in leading factors for bond market performance [5]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate moderately, while gold remains an attractive long-term asset allocation option [5]. - The focus on activating domestic demand and upgrading industries is seen as a core direction for future policies [6]. Group 6: Investment Themes - The investment landscape is becoming clearer, with three main themes emerging: the revaluation of manufacturing pricing power, deepening international expansion of enterprises, and the continuation of the technology market [8][9]. - The manufacturing sector is expected to shift from scale expansion to pricing power and profit transformation, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy [9]. - The international expansion of enterprises is broadening, with a focus on sectors such as machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military equipment [9].

Group 1: Core Views - Major brokerages are actively preparing for the 2026 strategy meetings, with expectations of a stable macroeconomic environment and a bullish outlook for the A-share market [3][4] - The market's driving force is anticipated to shift from valuation recovery to profit improvement, with a focus on fundamental performance [5][6] Group 2: Macroeconomic Outlook - Institutions predict that the domestic economy will maintain stability in 2026, with policies continuing to provide support [4] - Key indicators such as consumer demand, monetary liquidity, and the RMB's appreciation are expected to drive reasonable price recovery [4] - Expanding domestic demand is identified as a crucial theme, with strategies to balance supply and demand through various measures [4] Group 3: Market Trends - The market is expected to challenge ten-year highs, driven by economic transformation and capital market reforms [6] - Different institutions have varying views on market momentum, with some predicting a slow upward trend after a period of valuation recovery [5][6] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Technology remains a consensus investment direction, but there is a diversification of views on secondary lines and specific sectors [7] - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended to navigate market volatility, with a focus on both "old economy" and resource sectors [8] - Resource products are highlighted as a potential new mainline direction in the A-share market, alongside technology [9]