Market Overview - The US 90-day exemption period is ending this week, leading to ongoing market focus on US tariff negotiations [1] - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.12% at 23,887.83 points, with a total turnover of HKD 193.79 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.25% to 5,229.56 points, indicating mixed performance across indices [1] Blue Chip Performance - Sands China (01928) led blue-chip stocks, rising 3.85% to HKD 18.32, contributing 2.58 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Macau's June gaming revenue increased by 19% year-on-year to MOP 21.1 billion, exceeding market expectations [2] - Other notable blue-chip movements included China Resources Land (01109) up 3.45% and Ideal Automotive (02015) up 2.8% [2] Sector Highlights Stablecoin Sector - The stablecoin concept is gaining traction, with companies like Guotai Junan International (01788) rising 10.77% [3] - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation is set to take effect on August 1, with limited licenses expected to be issued [3] Beverage Sector - Tea beverage stocks surged, with Cha Bai Dao (02555) up 11.04% amid a competitive delivery market [4] - The delivery battle between Alibaba and Meituan has significantly boosted tea beverage consumption [4] Real Estate Sector - The housing market is under scrutiny, with a focus on stabilizing expectations and activating demand [5] - Analysts suggest that the third quarter will be crucial for policy direction affecting the real estate market [5] Gaming Sector - Gaming stocks continued to rise, with MGM China (02282) up 2.38% and overall positive sentiment in the Macau gaming market [6] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 10% year-on-year increase in Macau's July gaming revenue [6] Power Sector - Power stocks saw a general increase, driven by record electricity demand due to high temperatures [7] - The maximum national electricity load reached 14.65 billion kilowatts, marking a significant year-on-year increase [7] Gold Sector - Gold stocks faced pressure, with Shandong Gold (01787) down 5.96% as gold prices fell below USD 3,310 per ounce [7] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced expectations for US interest rate cuts [7] Notable Stock Movements - H&H International Holdings (01112) issued a profit warning, falling 7.14% [8] - Jihong Co. (02603) saw a significant rise of 11.62%, with projected net profit growth of 97.25% to 108.21% for the first half of 2025 [9] - Lao Pu Gold (06181) reached a new high, reflecting strong growth potential compared to industry peers [10] - FWD Group (01828) debuted on the market, closing up 1.05% with a net fundraising of approximately HKD 29.53 billion [11]

Summary of the Conference Call for Laopu Gold Company Overview - Laopu Gold is positioned as a high-end luxury gold jewelry brand in China, with 36 direct-operated stores expected to generate approximately 8.5 billion RMB in revenue by the end of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 168% [2][5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be around 1.47 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 254% [2][5] - The company anticipates a net profit of at least 4.5 billion RMB in 2025 [2] Industry Insights - The market size of traditional gold in China has grown from 13 billion RMB in 2018 to nearly 160 billion RMB in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 65% [2][6] - It is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 25% from 2024 to 2028 [6] Key Performance Indicators - Laopu Gold's average single-store revenue is expected to reach approximately 200 million RMB in 2024, with mature stores projected to achieve sales of 1 billion RMB [3] - The company maintains a gross margin of 40% to 45% and a net margin exceeding 17% by 2024 [5] Store Performance - The Beijing SKP store has shown exceptional performance, achieving sales of 780 million RMB in the first quarter of 2025, matching the total sales of the previous year [3][8] - The average sales per square meter at the Beijing SKP store surpass those of Tiffany and Van Cleef & Arpels [8] Expansion Plans - Laopu Gold plans to open 10 new self-operated stores in 2025 and 2026, with further expansion into Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, and Japan [2][9] Market Positioning - Laopu Gold is recognized as a leader in the traditional gold sector, with a significant presence in high-end shopping centers in first-tier and new first-tier cities, covering over 80% of the top ten high-end shopping centers in China [7] - The brand has a strong recognition among high-net-worth individuals, comparable to international luxury jewelry brands [7] Pricing Strategy - The company conducts two to three price adjustments annually, with a notable price increase in April 2025 leading to a 200% year-on-year increase in store efficiency [12] - A potential price adjustment in September 2025 is expected to further boost performance [12] Future Outlook - Laopu Gold's stock price is anticipated to reach new highs due to strong same-store growth, successful new store openings, and expansion into overseas markets [3][13] - The company is expected to achieve a profit of 5 billion RMB in 2025, with a valuation still having room for growth [13] Conclusion - Laopu Gold's success is closely linked to the rising gold prices and increased consumer interest in gold jewelry, alongside a significant boost in brand awareness post-IPO [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Laopu Gold (06181.HK) has surged significantly, reaching a record high of 1008 HKD per share, with a year-to-date increase of 321.5%. However, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio has risen to 109, raising concerns about potential valuation corrections in the future [1][8]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - Laopu Gold's stock price hit a new high, with a peak of 1035 HKD per share, reflecting a 14.9% increase on July 1 [1]. - The stock has attracted substantial interest from public funds, with 17 funds holding a total of 46 funds in Laopu Gold as of the end of Q1 2025 [1][3]. - The stock's current PE ratio of 109 is significantly higher than competitors like Chow Tai Fook (22) and Lao Feng Xiang (8), indicating a notable premium [1][8]. Group 2: Fund Holdings and Actions - Fund holdings in Laopu Gold show a clear divergence, with some funds increasing their positions while others have reduced or exited their holdings [3][7]. - The top holder, Fortune Fund, increased its holdings by 113.75 thousand shares to 158.86 thousand shares, with a market value of 1.069 billion HKD [3]. - In contrast, GF Fund reduced its holdings by 19.61 thousand shares, maintaining a total of 73.13 thousand shares valued at 491 million HKD [3][4]. Group 3: Performance of Funds - Funds heavily invested in Laopu Gold have shown strong performance, with some funds like Xin Ao You Xiang Life A rising nearly 50% year-to-date, while others like GF Value Core A and Southern Hong Kong Growth have increased by 37.86% and 36.91%, respectively [6] [7]. - A total of 10 funds that were heavily invested in Laopu Gold in Q1 have significantly reduced their positions in Q2, with 7 funds nearly exiting their holdings [7][8]. Group 4: Valuation Concerns - Market analysts express concerns over Laopu Gold's high valuation, with a dynamic PE ratio of 68, suggesting that the stock price may have already priced in optimistic performance expectations [8]. - The potential for valuation corrections is heightened if gold prices fluctuate or if consumer recovery does not meet expectations [8][9]. - Some funds have adopted a "step-by-step profit-taking" strategy, indicating a cautious approach to the stock's future performance [9].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Laopu Gold (06181.HK) has been rising significantly, leading to a divergence in public fund holdings, with some funds aggressively increasing their positions while others are cashing out or reducing their stakes [1][3][12]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On July 1, Laopu Gold's stock price reached a new high of 1008 HKD per share, with a 14.9% increase, and has seen a year-to-date rise of 321.5% [2][3]. - The stock's dynamic PE ratio has reached 68 times, significantly higher than competitors such as Chow Tai Fook (22 times) and Lao Feng Xiang (8 times), indicating a notable premium and potential for valuation correction [3][12]. Group 2: Fund Holdings - As of the end of Q1 2025, 17 public funds held a total of 46 funds heavily invested in Laopu Gold, with 2 funds increasing their holdings, 10 reducing, and 34 entering as new heavy investors [3][11]. - The top holder, Fortune Fund, increased its holdings by 113.75 thousand shares to 158.86 thousand shares, with a market value of 1.069 billion HKD [4][5]. - In contrast, GF Fund reduced its holdings by 19.61 thousand shares, maintaining a position of 73.13 thousand shares, with a market value of 491 million HKD [6][11]. Group 3: Fund Performance - Funds heavily invested in Laopu Gold have shown strong performance, with some, like Xin Ao You Xiang Life A, increasing nearly 50% year-to-date, while others like GF Value Core A and Southern Hong Kong Growth have risen by 37.86% and 36.91%, respectively [8][12]. - A significant number of funds have begun to reduce their positions, with 10 funds heavily invested in Laopu Gold in Q1 significantly cutting back in Q2, indicating a shift in sentiment [10][11]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The divergence in fund holdings reflects differing views on Laopu Gold's valuation, with some funds adopting a "step-by-step profit-taking" strategy amid concerns over high valuations and potential market corrections [9][12]. - The market's future direction will depend on Laopu Gold's ability to sustain high growth rates to justify its elevated valuation, especially in light of potential fluctuations in gold prices and consumer recovery [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Add" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company, founded in 2009, is a leading brand in promoting traditional Chinese gold craftsmanship and aims to reshape the gold jewelry market in China. It maintains a high-end positioning focused on "traditional gold" [6][10]. - The company has successfully expanded its store network, opening its first overseas store in Singapore and a new store in Shanghai in June 2025. By the end of 2024, it had 36 stores across 15 cities, all located in high-end commercial centers [5][6]. - Same-store sales have been strong due to rising gold prices, brand recognition, and continuous product innovation. The company offers competitive pricing compared to traditional high-end jewelry brands [7]. - The outlook for gold prices remains positive, with expectations of continued upward movement, potentially exceeding $3,500 per ounce [7]. - The company is leveraging Chinese cultural elements in its product designs, with nearly 2,000 original designs and numerous patents, aiming to establish itself as a global luxury brand [9][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: HKD 1,008.00 - Total market capitalization: HKD 1,740.58 billion - Debt-to-asset ratio: 38.13% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 95.20 [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue growth forecast for 2025-2027: 128%, 39%, 12% - Net profit growth forecast for 2025-2027: 172%, 48%, 19% - Earnings per share (EPS) projections: HKD 23, HKD 34, HKD 41 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 1,200.00 [1][7]. Core Views - The company is experiencing strong growth momentum driven by rapid store expansion both domestically and internationally, particularly in high-end markets [1][2]. - The premium gold jewelry market is expanding, with the company leading the trend through product innovation and high craftsmanship [2]. - The company has successfully opened new stores in key locations, enhancing its brand positioning and targeting high-net-worth customers [3]. - Strong same-store sales growth is observed, with a significant increase in online sales contributing to overall revenue growth [4]. - Profit forecasts have been adjusted upwards due to sustained high demand and successful overseas market entry, with net profit projections for 2025-2027 increased by 40%-43% [5][12]. Summary by Sections Store Expansion and Upgrades - As of the end of 2024, the company has established 36 self-operated stores in 15 major cities, focusing on high-end shopping centers [3]. - Recent openings include stores in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Singapore, with plans for further expansions [3]. Sales Performance - The company reported a same-store revenue growth of over 120.9% in 2024, with a remarkable 170% growth in the first five months of 2025 [4]. - Online sales through platforms like Tmall and JD.com reached HKD 12.8 billion in early 2025, marking a 333% year-on-year increase [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been significantly raised, with expected revenues of RMB 23.6 billion, RMB 29.2 billion, and RMB 35.4 billion respectively [10][12]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected at RMB 4.9 billion, reflecting a 233.6% increase from the previous year [12][17]. Market Positioning - The company is recognized as the leading brand in traditional handcrafted gold jewelry, continuously innovating with products that blend heritage craftsmanship with modern aesthetics [2]. - The brand's positioning in high-end markets is reinforced by its strategic store locations and product offerings [3].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Laopu Gold (06181.HK) has surged significantly since its listing, reaching a new high of 1035 HKD per share, with a market capitalization exceeding 170 billion HKD, reflecting strong operational performance and market positioning as a high-end brand [1][2][6]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Laopu Gold's stock price increased by 23.89 times from its initial offering price of 40.50 HKD per share to 1008 HKD per share within one year of its listing [5]. - The stock reached a peak of 1035 HKD per share on June 30, 2024, marking a rise of over 18% on that day [2][4]. - The company's market capitalization grew from 6.8 billion HKD at the time of listing to 174.1 billion HKD, an increase of 167.3 billion HKD [6]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Laopu Gold reported a net profit of 4.16 billion CNY in 2023 and 14.73 billion CNY in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 340.40% and 253.86%, respectively [1][8]. - The company's revenue for 2023 was 31.80 billion CNY, and for 2024, it is projected to be 85.06 billion CNY, showing growth rates of 145.60% and 167.51% [8]. Group 3: Expansion and Market Strategy - The opening of new stores, particularly in high-end locations like Shanghai and Singapore, has significantly contributed to the company's revenue growth [9][10]. - Laopu Gold plans to expand further in Southeast Asia, with analysts predicting a compound annual growth rate of 68% in sales and 76% in net profit from 2025 to 2027 [11]. - The successful launch of the Singapore store is seen as a critical step towards establishing Laopu Gold as a global brand [11].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 0.87% as large funds adjust their positions, particularly in the financial sector [1] - In contrast, the A-share market is witnessing a collective rise, attributed to the China Securities Regulatory Commission's new logo, interpreted by investors as a sign of a "triple win" for the stock market, listed companies, and investors [1] Trade Relations and Tariffs - Concerns over tariffs remain prevalent in the Hong Kong market, with the U.S. government indicating that trade negotiations may extend beyond the initial deadline set by the Trump administration [2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that negotiations with multiple trade partners could continue until September, reflecting a lack of significant progress in talks with major partners [2] - China's firm stance against sacrificing its interests in trade negotiations has influenced other countries, such as India, to adopt a tougher approach [2] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index for May increased by 2.68% year-on-year, surpassing expectations and reaching its highest level since February 2025 [3] - The inflation outlook suggests that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in the upcoming meetings, with expectations of inflation peaking in July or August [3] - In China, industrial profits for large enterprises declined by 1.1% year-on-year from January to May, with a significant drop of 9.1% in May alone [3] Legislative Developments - The U.S. Senate passed the "Big Beautiful Bill" with a narrow margin, which could lead to increased government debt to stimulate economic growth [4] - The bill's passage may have mixed implications, as the U.S. national debt exceeds $36 trillion, raising concerns about sustainability [4] - The bill includes compromises that may benefit sectors such as healthcare and renewable energy, positively impacting related stocks [4] Stock Performance and New Listings - Newly listed stocks like Chow Tai Fook (06168) have seen significant gains, with a 25% increase on the day, nearly doubling in value over three days [5] - Old Town Gold (06181) also benefited from the strong performance of its new Singapore store, with a nearly 15% rise in stock price [5] - Cloud Wisdom (09678), the first AGI stock in Hong Kong, surged over 44% on its debut, driven by strong revenue growth projections [6] Sector Focus - The military industry is gaining attention due to reports of Iran negotiating the purchase of Chinese fighter jets and abandoning U.S. GPS in favor of China's BeiDou navigation system [8] - The photovoltaic glass sector is addressing supply-demand imbalances, with plans for a 30% production cut starting in July to stabilize prices [9] - Companies like Eastman Chemical (00189) are expected to benefit from increased demand for refrigerants, with a significant rise in profitability anticipated [10][11]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index closed down by 0.87% and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.72% [1] - New consumption concept stocks continued to show strong performance, with Lao Pu Gold (06181.HK) rising by 14.94% and Youbao Online (02429.HK) increasing by 53.85% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The explosive growth of Lao Pu Gold is attributed to its recent store openings in high-end locations, which have significantly boosted sales and market interest in the new consumption sector in Hong Kong [1][5][7]. Group 1: Company Performance - On June 30, Lao Pu Gold's stock price surged over 18%, reaching a historical high of over 1000 HKD per share, with a market capitalization exceeding 170 billion HKD [3][4]. - The opening of the new store in Shanghai's IFC Mall on June 28 featured promotional activities that attracted long queues, with wait times approaching 2 hours, indicating strong consumer interest [5][6]. - The company has also expanded internationally, opening its first store in Singapore on June 21, strategically located near popular tourist attractions, which is expected to enhance brand visibility and sales [6][7]. Group 2: Market Trends - The new consumption sector is experiencing a shift, with brands that offer differentiated products gaining traction among younger consumers, driven by emotional consumption [9][10]. - The competitive landscape in the gold and jewelry industry is evolving, with high-end and fashionable gold products benefiting from this trend [9]. - The rise of online platforms and social media is influencing consumer behavior, making them important indicators for investment in the new consumption space [10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the Singapore store's performance could surpass that of existing high-performing locations, indicating strong potential for future growth in Southeast Asia [7]. - The company plans to continue expanding its presence in high-end commercial centers in China, with additional openings planned in Shanghai [5][7]. - Despite high price-to-earnings ratios, the growth potential remains attractive, as indicated by a PEG ratio below 1, suggesting room for stock price appreciation [11].