Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - In H1 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 199% year-on-year, with total revenue reaching 3.52 billion yuan, up 148% year-on-year. Same-store sales contributed significantly, with a 104.2% increase [2] - The company's gross margin slightly declined to 41.3%, down 0.32 percentage points year-on-year, while both sales and management expense ratios improved significantly [2] - The company targets high-net-worth clients with its unique traditional gold brand, showing strong profitability despite a challenging consumer environment [2] - The company operates a fully direct sales model, with a net increase of 6 stores year-on-year, totaling 33 stores across 14 cities as of June 2024 [2] - The report projects a full-year net profit of 1 billion yuan for 2024, with upward adjustments for 2025 and 2026 net profits to 1.3 billion and 1.6 billion yuan, respectively [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2024 is 6.32 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 98.9% [2] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 1,000.77 million yuan, reflecting a 140.4% increase year-on-year [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 5.94 yuan for 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.21 [2][10]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Recommend" rating for Laopu Gold (6181 HK) [1][3] Core Views - Laopu Gold achieved rapid revenue and profit growth in H1 2024, with revenue reaching RMB 3 52 billion (+148 3% YoY) and net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 588 million (+198 8% YoY) [1] - The company's brand influence continues to expand, driving growth in both offline and online channels [1] - Laopu Gold maintains its high-end brand positioning, with product innovation and store expansion contributing to revenue growth [1] - The company's profitability continues to improve, with net profit margin reaching 16 70% in H1 2024, up 2 82 pct YoY [1] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - H1 2024 revenue: RMB 3 52 billion (+148 3% YoY) [1] - H1 2024 net profit attributable to parent company: RMB 588 million (+198 8% YoY) [1] - 2024E revenue: RMB 6 162 billion (+93 8% YoY) [1] - 2024E net profit attributable to parent company: RMB 1 052 billion (+152 7% YoY) [1] Profitability - H1 2024 gross margin: 41 33% (-0 32 pct YoY) [1] - H1 2024 net profit margin: 16 70% (+2 82 pct YoY) [1] - 2024E gross margin: 41 72% [7] - 2024E net profit margin: 17 07% [7] Channel Performance - Offline store revenue in H1 2024: RMB 3 129 billion (+149 6% YoY) [1] - Online platform revenue in H1 2024: RMB 391 million (+138 9% YoY), accounting for 11 1% of total revenue [1] Product Performance - Pure gold product revenue in H1 2024: RMB 1 372 billion (+110 1% YoY) [1] - Gold inlaid product revenue in H1 2024: RMB 2 147 billion (+182 1% YoY), accounting for 61 0% of total revenue [1] Store Expansion and Brand Development - As of H1 2024, Laopu Gold operates 33 self-operated stores in 14 cities, including 4 SKP stores and 10 MixC stores [1] - The company opened 6 new stores and expanded 1 store in H1 2024 [1] - Laopu Gold opened its largest flagship store in Tsim Sha Tsui, Hong Kong in March 2024, covering over 1 000 square meters [1] - The company has created over 1 800 original designs and holds 243 domestic patents, 1 207 copyrights, and 164 overseas patents as of H1 2024 [1] Valuation - 2024E PE: 13x [1] - 2024E PB: 3 9x [7] - 2024E EV/EBITDA: 9 08x [7] Future Outlook - 2025E revenue: RMB 7 885 billion (+28 0% YoY) [1] - 2025E net profit attributable to parent company: RMB 1 369 billion (+30 1% YoY) [1] - 2026E revenue: RMB 9 490 billion (+20 4% YoY) [1] - 2026E net profit attributable to parent company: RMB 1 671 billion (+22 1% YoY) [1]

Financial Performance - The company's revenue increased by approximately 148.3% from RMB 1,417.51 million for the six months ended June 30, 2023, to approximately RMB 3,520.19 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024[1]. - Gross profit rose by about 146.4% from RMB 590.50 million to approximately RMB 1,454.98 million during the same period[1]. - Net profit surged by approximately 198.8% from RMB 196.75 million to about RMB 587.81 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024[1]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share increased from RMB 1.44 to RMB 4.11[2]. - Total revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, reached RMB 3,520,185 thousand, a significant increase from RMB 1,417,512 thousand for the same period in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 148.5%[10]. - The company reported a pre-tax profit of RMB 587,812 thousand for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 196,754 thousand for the same period in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 198.5%[23]. - The total tax expense for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 192,584 thousand, significantly higher than RMB 62,825 thousand for the same period in 2023, indicating an increase of 206.5%[20]. - Same-store revenue growth rate for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was approximately 104.2%[33]. Assets and Liabilities - Total assets less current liabilities amounted to RMB 3,062.19 million as of June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 1,684.40 million as of December 31, 2023[2]. - Current assets increased significantly to RMB 3,406.11 million from RMB 1,775.84 million[2]. - The company's net asset value reached RMB 2,897.24 million, up from RMB 1,515.42 million[2]. - Inventory as of June 30, 2024, totaled RMB 2,108,428 thousand, up from RMB 1,267,932 thousand as of December 31, 2023, reflecting an increase of 66.1%[23]. - Trade receivables as of June 30, 2024, totaled RMB 369,912 thousand, a decrease from RMB 376,325 thousand as of December 31, 2023[26]. - Trade payables as of June 30, 2024, totaled RMB 226,219 thousand, an increase from RMB 57,662 thousand as of December 31, 2023[27]. - The company had interest-bearing bank borrowings of RMB 126,866 thousand as of June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 127,754 thousand as of December 31, 2023[29]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio was approximately 24.6% as of June 30, 2024, down from 29.8% as of December 31, 2023[48]. Revenue Sources - Revenue from product sales amounted to RMB 3,519,833 thousand, while maintenance service revenue was RMB 352 thousand, compared to RMB 1,417,369 thousand and RMB 143 thousand respectively in the previous year[10]. - Revenue from mainland China was RMB 3,232,628 thousand, up from RMB 1,357,081 thousand, indicating a growth of about 138.3%[10]. - The revenue from physical stores was RMB 3,128,721 thousand, accounting for 88.9% of total revenue, with a significant year-on-year increase of 149.6%[38]. - Online platform revenue reached RMB 391,464 thousand, contributing 11.1% to total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 138.9%[38]. - The revenue from gold products was RMB 1,372,085 thousand, representing 39.0% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 110.1%[40]. - The revenue from gold-inlaid products was RMB 2,146,735 thousand, accounting for 61.0% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 182.1%[40]. Expenses - Sales and distribution expenses were approximately RMB 532.15 million, an increase of about RMB 282.26 million or 113.0% compared to the same period in 2023[42]. - Administrative expenses rose to approximately RMB 124.63 million, an increase of about RMB 56.72 million or 83.5% compared to the same period in 2023[42]. - Research and development expenses increased to RMB 6.56 million from RMB 4.67 million, indicating a focus on innovation[2]. - Research and development expenses increased by approximately RMB 1.89 million or 40.5% to about RMB 6.56 million compared to the same period in 2023[43]. Corporate Governance and Structure - The company maintains a high standard of corporate governance, adhering to the principles and code provisions of the corporate governance code since its listing[55]. - All directors and supervisors have confirmed compliance with the standard code of conduct for securities trading since the listing date[56]. - The audit committee, consisting of three independent non-executive directors, reviewed the interim financial results for the six months ending June 30, 2024, and confirmed compliance with relevant accounting standards[59]. - The company is registered in China and was established on December 5, 2016, transitioning to a joint-stock company on November 25, 2019[62]. Market Position and Expansion - The company is recognized as a leading brand in the ancient method gold jewelry market in China, with significant brand influence and market presence[33]. - The company launched 6 new stores and expanded 1 store compared to the same period in 2023, contributing to incremental revenue growth[35]. - The flagship store in Hong Kong, opened on March 31, 2024, spans over 1,000 square meters, marking a significant step in the company's internationalization process[35]. - The company aims to expand its market influence and pursue internationalization, focusing on product innovation and craftsmanship[36]. - As of June 30, 2024, the company had approximately 275,000 loyal members, indicating an expanding consumer base[34]. Shareholder Information - The company did not recommend any interim dividend for the six months ended June 30, 2024, consistent with the previous year[21]. - The company raised approximately HKD 957.1 million from its IPO and the exercise of the over-allotment option, with 73.3% allocated for expanding the sales network[53]. - The planned use of the net proceeds includes HKD 701.6 million for sales network expansion, HKD 108.2 million for brand positioning, and HKD 95.7 million for general working capital[53]. - The over-allotment option was fully exercised on July 25, 2024, involving 3,355,300 H shares, representing approximately 15% of the total shares available for subscription[50]. - The board approved amendments to the company's articles of association on August 30, 2024, to align with the latest regulatory requirements in China[51]. - The company plans to implement full circulation of H shares, converting 40,388,900 unlisted shares into H shares, pending necessary approvals[52].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry - The discussion revolves around the company "Laopu Gold" within the gold and jewelry sector, highlighting its unique positioning as a high-end brand [1]. Core Points and Arguments - Laopu Gold is recognized as a rare product brand in the gold and jewelry segment, emphasizing its high-end positioning in both products and distribution channels [1]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The focus on high-end branding and distribution channels suggests a strategic advantage in targeting affluent consumers, which may lead to increased market share and profitability in a competitive industry [1].

老铺黄金20240808_1_导读 2024年08月09日 00:33 关键词 老铺黄金 珠宝行业 品牌升级 中高端品牌 沪深港通 行业深度 黄金饰品 工艺升级 高净值人群 国产珠宝 毛利率 销售费用率 净利润率 商业模式 古法金 金镶钻 产品序列 品牌高度 渠道端 门店数量 全文摘要 本报告深入探讨了某中高端珠宝品牌（以下简称品牌A）在面对消费市场压力时的发展战略与市场表 现。品牌A通过精确的消费者定位和店铺选址策略，成功实现了产品差异化和品牌升级。该品牌重点优 化了产品线和销售渠道，进而促进了利润的快速增长，这对于整个珠宝行业的品牌化进程具有重要意 义。报告还指出，品牌A未来有可能加入沪深港通，吸引投资者关注。在珠宝行业中，中高端市场的需 求稳定，尤其是黄金饰品方面。自2019年以来，工艺升级显著推动了市场需求的增长。品牌A利用高质 量产品和优质服务，针对高净值人群，实现了对高端市场的有效进入。通过多次关键转型，品牌A确立 了实体加线上多渠道经营策略，并在全国范围内精选位置布置门店，形成独特的商业模式。报告认 为，品牌A凭借其文化内涵、产品质量和差异化战略，在中高端珠宝领域建立了良好的品牌影响力和市 场份 ...

本次电话会议仅服务于长江证券研究所白名单客户未经长江证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式对外公布、复制、刊载、转载、转发、引用本次会议相关内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担长江证券保留追究其法律责任的权利 各位投资人大家晚上好我是长江证券民售行业的分析师李瑾那今天也很高兴给大家带来老铺黄金的一个最新的深度报告以及我们最新对于整个老铺黄金的一个成长空间的一个专题报告的一个综合汇报 那相信大家可能在过去整个老普黄金在港股IPO的这个过程然后包括最新的这样一个中报的一个业绩前瞻的这个数据其实可以得看到就是在一众消费相对偏沉压放缓的大的背景下其实老普黄金凭借就是清晰的人群定位和商铺选择 结合产品端的差异化的这样一个定位其实是一个算横空出世的一个中高端品牌那么现阶段其实老铺可能未来来看的话在 今年的九月份或者是未来有望逐渐的去进入呼声港通的这个选择成为咱们对A股投资人而言的话就是一个非常值得关注的一个标的那么我们在觉得在现在这个节点上我们去对它进行深入的分析和拆解是显得尤为的必要对那我们整个今天的汇报可能主要是分作两个部分 第一个的话是我们将就是今年年初我们团队首先去写的从老破黄金看珠宝行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommend" rating for the company [3][5] Core Views - The company is a pioneer in promoting the concept of ancient gold craftsmanship and has established itself as a leader in the industry [3][8] - The company's revenue grew from RMB 1.265 billion in 2021 to RMB 3.180 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 58.6% [3] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased from RMB 114 million in 2021 to RMB 416 million in 2023, with a CAGR of 91.0% [3] - The ancient gold jewelry market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21.8% from 2023 to 2028, reaching RMB 421.4 billion by 2028 [3] Company Overview - The company was founded in 2009 and is the first brand to promote the concept of ancient gold craftsmanship in China [3][8] - The company has a strong R&D team and has developed a comprehensive product portfolio, including ancient gold jewelry, diamond-embedded products, and gold-fired enamel products [3][8] - The company operates 33 self-owned stores as of June 2024, covering 14 cities, mostly in high-end commercial areas [3] Industry Analysis - The ancient gold jewelry market in China grew from RMB 13 billion in 2018 to RMB 157.3 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 64.6% [3] - The market is expected to continue growing at a CAGR of 21.8% from 2023 to 2028, driven by the shift in consumer preferences towards younger generations and the upgrading of consumer tastes [3] - The company holds a 2.0% market share in the ancient gold jewelry market in 2023 [3] Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong R&D team and a high proportion of self-produced products, with over 50% of products being self-produced since the establishment of the Yueyang factory in 2018 [3] - The company's products are differentiated by their high craftsmanship and cultural significance, with a focus on ancient gold techniques and high-end positioning [3] - The company's self-operated stores are strategically located in high-end commercial areas, targeting high-net-worth individuals [3] - The company has a strong brand influence, being listed as one of the top ten jewelry brands favored by high-net-worth individuals in the 2023 Hurun Report [3] Future Prospects - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of the ancient gold jewelry market and its strong brand positioning, which attracts high-net-worth customers [3] - The company's high customer loyalty and repeat purchase rates are expected to drive future growth, with customers spending over RMB 1 million annually contributing 15.9% of revenue in 2023, up from 8.5% in 2021 [3] - The company plans to expand its store network, with a focus on high-end commercial areas, and has significant growth potential in terms of both store count and sales per store [3] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 5.849 billion, RMB 7.285 billion, and RMB 8.563 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 84.0%, 24.5%, and 17.5% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 1.001 billion, RMB 1.259 billion, and RMB 1.484 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 140.5%, 25.7%, and 17.9% [3] - The company's P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 12x, 10x, and 8x, respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Overweight" rating for the company, assigning a target price of HKD 103.37 based on a 16.2x PE multiple for FY2024 [2][10] Core Investment Thesis - The company is positioned as a high-end brand with significant brand premium and customer loyalty, driven by strong single-store sales growth and store expansion potential [2] - The company's growth strategy combines product innovation, channel expansion, and brand building, creating a competitive moat [2] - The domestic market offers substantial growth potential through single-store efficiency improvement and store network expansion, while international markets present long-term opportunities [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 7.11 billion in FY2024 to RMB 13.25 billion in FY2026, with a CAGR of 30.83% [2][6] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 1.00 billion in FY2024 to RMB 1.91 billion in FY2026, with a CAGR of 31.54% [2][6] - Gross margin is forecasted to remain stable at around 42.5% from FY2024 to FY2026, supported by product mix optimization [6] Product and Brand Strategy - The company focuses on ancient gold craftsmanship and innovative product lines, such as gold-inlaid diamonds, which have driven rapid revenue growth [2][12] - The brand strategy aligns with luxury positioning, emphasizing exclusivity and premium pricing, which enhances brand equity [2][12] - The company's product portfolio includes ancient gold and gold-inlaid jewelry, with gold-inlaid products contributing 56% of total revenue in 2023 [12][38] Channel Expansion - The company operates a fully self-owned store model, with 33 stores in 14 cities as of the IPO filing, primarily located in tier-1 and new tier-1 cities [14][25] - Online sales accounted for 11.4% of total revenue in 2023, with a CAGR of 33% projected from FY2024 to FY2026 [6][14] - The company plans to expand its domestic store network to 60-100 stores, targeting high-end commercial centers, and explore international markets in Asia and beyond [2][25] Industry Analysis - The ancient gold jewelry market in China is a high-growth segment, with a projected CAGR of 21.8% from 2023 to 2028, reaching RMB 421.4 billion by 2028 [54] - The global gold jewelry market, particularly in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, offers significant opportunities for Chinese brands, with markets exceeding USD 10 billion in size [59][60] - The shift from "channel-first" to "brand-first" strategies is reshaping the competitive landscape in the gold jewelry industry, with a focus on premium positioning and product innovation [64] Growth Drivers - Domestic growth is driven by single-store efficiency improvement, store network expansion, and increased penetration among high-net-worth individuals [2][5] - International expansion is a long-term growth driver, with the company targeting markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, leveraging its brand and product differentiation [2][25]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Lao Pu Gold (06181.HK) [1]. Core Insights - Lao Pu Gold is a leading brand in traditional gold jewelry, focusing on high-end positioning and steady expansion. The company achieved a revenue of 3.18 billion yuan and a net profit of 416 million yuan in 2023, reflecting significant year-on-year growth of 145.7% and 340.4% respectively [2][3][14]. - The market for traditional gold jewelry in China has reached 518 billion yuan, with traditional gold accounting for 31% of the gold market. The sector is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.8% to reach 421.4 billion yuan by 2028 [2][30][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Leading Brand in Traditional Gold - Lao Pu Gold was established in 2009 and has opened 33 self-operated stores in high-end urban areas by June 2024. The company has also entered e-commerce platforms like Tmall and JD [2][14]. - The company has a unique product offering, being the first to introduce gold inlaid with diamonds, and has contributed to the establishment of industry standards for traditional gold jewelry [2][14]. 2. Cultural Trends and Craft Innovation - The consumption of gold jewelry in China has been driven by cultural trends and investment demand, with traditional gold jewelry gaining popularity among consumers [2][30]. - The market for traditional gold jewelry is expected to grow significantly, with a current market size of 157.3 billion yuan, projected to increase to 421.4 billion yuan by 2028 [30][32]. 3. High-End Brand Development - Lao Pu Gold has positioned itself as a high-end brand, with 65% of its products priced between 10,000 to 50,000 yuan. The average selling price for gold products is 1,043 yuan per gram, with a gross margin of 45.8% [3][20]. - The company has a strong customer loyalty program, with 93,100 loyal members contributing 26.7% of total revenue [3][20]. 4. Direct Sales Model and Store Expansion - The company operates a fully direct sales model, managing brand image and service quality effectively. In 2023, online sales reached 360 million yuan, while offline sales totaled 2.82 billion yuan [3][22]. - Lao Pu Gold plans to open 8 new stores in mainland China and 5 overseas in the next two years to enhance brand internationalization and market penetration [3][28]. 5. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 5.44 billion, 6.85 billion, and 8.22 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with net profits of 780 million, 970 million, and 1.14 billion yuan respectively [3][24]. - The report highlights the company's low debt and leverage, indicating a robust return on equity (ROE) of 34.9% in 2023, which is significantly higher than its peers [3][24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next 6 to 12 months [1][20]. Core Insights - The company, Laopu Gold, is a leading brand in the ancient gold category in China, maintaining a strong reputation among high-net-worth clients due to its product quality and service [1]. - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth, with a projected net profit of approximately 5.5 to 6 billion RMB for H1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 180% to 205% [2]. - The company's revenue is forecasted to grow substantially, with total revenue expected to reach 5,681.56 million RMB in 2024, representing a 78.69% increase from 2023 [5]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for Laopu Gold is expected to be 997.10 million RMB in 2024, 1,248.10 million RMB in 2025, and 1,482.56 million RMB in 2026, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 139.51%, 25.17%, and 18.79% respectively [2][5]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to rise from 2.47 RMB in 2023 to 5.92 RMB in 2024, and further to 8.81 RMB by 2026 [5][18]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 31.22 in 2023 to 13.03 in 2024, indicating an attractive valuation as earnings grow [5][18]. Market Position and Strategy - Laopu Gold operates a fully direct sales model, achieving higher average store revenue compared to traditional jewelry franchise stores, with a coverage rate of 80% in China's top high-end shopping centers [3][10]. - The brand focuses on high-net-worth clients, leveraging its cultural and luxury attributes to enhance its market presence and profitability [10].