Core Insights - The article emphasizes the ongoing developments regarding the U.S. government shutdown, the response to the banking crisis, and the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, suggesting that if market risk aversion eases, precious metal prices may experience wide fluctuations [1][2]. Precious Metals - Market risk aversion is fluctuating, leading to expectations of short-term wide price swings for gold. Comex gold prices reached $4,392 per ounce and Shanghai gold prices hit 1,001 yuan per gram during the week [2]. - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated rising risks in the employment market and potential cessation of balance sheet reduction in the coming months. The banking sector is facing renewed challenges, which has heightened market risk aversion [2]. - Long-term, despite existing federal debt risks and challenges to the dollar's status, gold may continue to perform well amid a restructuring of the global monetary system [2]. Industrial Metals - Industrial metal prices are under pressure due to declining market risk appetite, but upcoming domestic meetings and renewed U.S.-China trade negotiations may improve macroeconomic sentiment [3]. - Supply-side disruptions, particularly in mining, and historically low inventory levels are expected to provide upward support for industrial metal prices [3]. - Despite insufficient demand during the peak season, the overall supply situation remains tight, suggesting potential for price increases in the medium to long term [3].

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 10月17日晚间，国缆检测发布公告称，公司于近日收到保荐人国泰海通证券股份有限公 司（简称"国泰海通"）出具的《国泰海通证券股份有限公司关于更换上海国缆检测股份有限公司首次公 开发行股票持续督导之保荐代表人的函》。公司首次公开发行股票持续督导保荐代表人曹千阳先生因工 作变动原因，不再负责本公司持续督导工作。根据相关法律法规及监管规定的要求，为保证持续督导工 作的有序进行，国泰海通委派陈杭先生接替曹千阳先生履行公司首次公开发行股票的持续督导职责。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of Vietnam as a key investment destination for Chinese enterprises, highlighting its potential in the Southeast Asian market and the importance of fostering cooperation and exploring investment opportunities in the region [2][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Vietnam Investment Forum" will be held on October 21, 2025, in Shanghai, focusing on collaboration and investment opportunities in Vietnam [2]. - The forum will feature prominent speakers from various sectors, including finance, manufacturing, and law, to discuss the macroeconomic outlook and investment trends in Vietnam [2][3]. Group 2: Key Sessions and Topics - The forum will include sessions on topics such as: - Overview of China-ASEAN economic cooperation and Southeast Asia investment [3]. - Macroeconomic outlook and investment prospects in Vietnam [3]. - Trends in industrial facility leasing in Vietnam [3]. - Current status and trends of Chinese enterprises investing in Vietnam [3]. - Digital empowerment for global operations of Chinese enterprises [3]. - Opportunities and challenges in the snack retail market in Vietnam [3]. - A roundtable discussion on the rise of consumption and investment frontiers in Vietnam [3].

- **Domestic Asset BL Model** - **Model Name**: Black-Litterman (BL) Model - **Construction Idea**: The BL model integrates subjective views with quantitative asset allocation using Bayesian theory, optimizing asset weights based on market analysis and expected returns. It addresses the sensitivity of mean-variance models to expected returns and provides higher fault tolerance compared to purely subjective investments [26][27][33] - **Construction Process**: 1. Use historical returns of assets over the past five years to estimate market equilibrium returns (Π) 2. Specify a risk aversion coefficient (e.g., λ = 10), which corresponds to a target volatility 3. Alternatively, assign fixed weights (e.g., stock:bond:convertible bond:commodity:gold = 10:80:5:2.5:2.5) and reverse calculate the risk aversion coefficient dynamically for each period [33] - **Evaluation**: The BL model effectively combines subjective views with quantitative methods, providing robust asset allocation solutions [26][27] - **Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model** - **Model Name**: Risk Parity Model - **Construction Idea**: The model aims to equalize the risk contribution of each asset to the overall portfolio, optimizing asset weights based on expected volatility and correlation [32][35] - **Construction Process**: 1. Select appropriate underlying assets 2. Calculate each asset's risk contribution to the portfolio 3. Solve optimization problems to determine final asset weights 4. Use daily returns over the past five years to estimate the covariance matrix for stability [35] - **Evaluation**: The model provides stable returns across economic cycles and is well-suited for domestic investors [32][35] - **Macro Factor-Based Asset Allocation Strategy** - **Model Name**: Macro Factor-Based Strategy - **Construction Idea**: The strategy bridges macroeconomic research with asset allocation by constructing high-frequency macro factors (e.g., growth, inflation, interest rates, credit, exchange rates, liquidity) and aligning asset weights with subjective macroeconomic views [41][46] - **Construction Process**: 1. Calculate factor exposure levels for assets monthly 2. Use risk parity portfolios as benchmarks to compute baseline factor exposures 3. Adjust factor exposure targets based on subjective macroeconomic views (e.g., inflation up = positive deviation) 4. Solve for asset weights using the model [41][46] - **Evaluation**: The strategy effectively incorporates macroeconomic insights into asset allocation, enhancing adaptability to changing economic conditions [41][46] - **Backtest Results for Models** - **Domestic Asset BL Model 1**: - Annualized return: 3.58% - Max drawdown: 1.31% - Annualized volatility: 2.19% [31][33] - **Domestic Asset BL Model 2**: - Annualized return: 3.18% - Max drawdown: 1.06% - Annualized volatility: 1.99% [31][33] - **Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model**: - Annualized return: 3.12% - Max drawdown: 0.76% - Annualized volatility: 1.34% [39][40] - **Macro Factor-Based Strategy**: - Annualized return: 3.42% - Max drawdown: 0.65% - Annualized volatility: 1.32% [46][47]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of listed securities firms is expected to maintain rapid growth in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 58.63% due to strong market conditions and improved performance [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - It is anticipated that the adjusted operating revenue of 42 listed securities firms will increase by 32.02% year-on-year to 395.48 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 58.63% to 165.15 billion yuan [1]. - For Q3 2025, the adjusted operating revenue is projected to be 148.15 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.45% and a year-on-year increase of 27.15%, while net profit is expected to reach 61.13 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.94% and a year-on-year increase of 48.74% [1]. Group 2: Business Contribution Analysis - The brokerage business is expected to contribute the most to the revenue growth, accounting for 48.32% of the adjusted revenue increase, primarily driven by a significant rise in market trading volume in the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. - The investment business is projected to contribute 38.14% to the adjusted operating revenue growth, as the equity market shows marginal improvements compared to the high base in Q3 2024 [2]. - Investment banking revenue is expected to increase by 21.84% to 24.82 billion yuan, benefiting from a recovery in A-share and Hong Kong stock financing, while asset management revenue is forecasted to decline by 0.81% to 32.2 billion yuan due to falling management fees [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities - The influx of incremental funds into the market is ongoing, supported by a new assessment method for insurance companies that encourages higher equity allocations, favoring undervalued blue-chip stocks with high return on equity [3]. - In the context of increased retail investor participation, it is recommended to focus on companies with strong earnings elasticity in Q3 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing an unprecedented wave of delistings due to major violations, with a record number of companies forced to delist as regulatory scrutiny intensifies [1][5]. Group 1: Regulatory Environment - The new delisting regulations that came into effect at the beginning of the year have led to a historical high of 13 companies reaching the mandatory delisting criteria for major violations as of October 15 [1][5]. - The regulatory environment is becoming increasingly stringent, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) enforcing stricter oversight on financial fraud and other illegal activities [4][6]. Group 2: Role of Investment Banks - Eleven investment banks are under scrutiny for their roles in the delisted companies, with only two, First Capital and Wumart Securities, currently facing regulatory action [2][7]. - The complexity of the investment banks' responsibilities is highlighted by the fact that many of the involved companies frequently changed their advisory firms during periods of fraud [4][9]. Group 3: Case Studies of Delisted Companies - Notable cases include *ST Dongtong, which was involved in fraudulent activities from 2019 to 2022, leading to warnings issued to its sponsor, First Capital [7][8]. - Guandao Digital inflated its revenue by 1.465 billion yuan through fraudulent contracts and invoices, resulting in penalties for Wumart Securities, which served as its sponsor [8]. Group 4: Investment Banks' Due Diligence - Many investment banks provided "no objection" reports during the supervision periods of companies that were later found to have committed fraud, raising questions about their diligence [4][12]. - National Securities was the only firm to explicitly warn of risks associated with a client, indicating a lack of proactive risk management among other firms [12][13]. Group 5: Changes in Oversight Practices - Investment banks are reportedly increasing their efforts in due diligence, particularly during the ongoing supervision phases, in response to heightened regulatory scrutiny [15]. - Accounting firms are also enhancing their audit processes, adding independent review steps and increasing personnel to ensure thorough examinations [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the launch of the G-FIRST 2.0 program by Bank of China, China Pacific Insurance, and Guotai Junan Securities, aimed at enhancing cross-border financial cooperation for Chinese enterprises [1][3] - The G-FIRST 2.0 initiative is designed to provide comprehensive support for Chinese companies seeking to expand globally, ensuring a seamless connection to international markets [1] - The event took place at the 2025 Shanghai Global Asset Management Forum, indicating a significant platform for discussing advancements in asset management and financial services [1]

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities believes that rising geopolitical uncertainties may temporarily increase volatility in global equity markets, presenting opportunities for Chinese equity assets and gold. The recommendation for October is to increase holdings in A-shares, overweight gold, and maintain a standard allocation in bonds [1][2]. Asset Allocation Framework - The asset allocation framework consists of Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA), Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA), and Major Event Review Adjustments. SAA aims to diversify macro risks and set long-term allocation benchmarks, while TAA identifies short-term risk-return characteristics to adjust portfolio weights for improved returns. Major events are subjectively reviewed to correct and supplement quantitative results [2][3]. Equity Market Outlook - The recommendation for equity allocation in October is 41.25%, with overweight positions in A-shares (8.75%) and Hong Kong stocks (8.75%), standard allocation in U.S. stocks (15.00%), underweight in European stocks (2.75%), standard allocation in Japanese stocks (3.25%), and underweight in Indian stocks (2.75%). The outlook for Chinese A/H shares remains positive, with market adjustments viewed as buying opportunities [3][4]. Bond Market Outlook - The recommendation for bond allocation in October is 45%, with standard allocations in long-term government bonds (10.00%), short-term government bonds (12.50%), long-term U.S. Treasuries (10.00%), and short-term U.S. Treasuries (12.50%). The bond market is supported by imbalanced credit supply and demand, along with stable liquidity. The ongoing themes of "central bank bond purchases" and adjustments in redemption fees for bond funds will continue to play a role [4]. Commodity Market Outlook - The recommendation for commodity allocation in October is 13.75%, with an overweight position in gold (10%), underweight in oil (1.25%), and standard allocation in industrial commodities (2.5%). The gold market remains strong, having surpassed key resistance levels, supported by factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and continued purchases by the Chinese central bank [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that rising geopolitical uncertainties may temporarily increase volatility in global equity markets, while Chinese equity assets and gold may still present performance opportunities. It recommends increasing holdings in AH shares and gold in October, while maintaining a standard allocation to bonds [1]. Group 1: Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) - The framework consists of Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA), Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA), and Major Event Review Adjustments, aimed at guiding investment decisions [1]. - SAA is designed to diversify macro risks and set long-term allocation benchmarks to ensure portfolio robustness [1]. Group 2: Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) - The report is optimistic about Chinese equities, recommending an equity allocation weight of 41.25% for October, with overweight positions in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2]. - The report indicates that geopolitical uncertainties may create buying opportunities in the Chinese market, suggesting that the current market adjustments are not the end of the upward trend [2]. Group 3: Bond Allocation - The report maintains a neutral stance on bonds, recommending a bond allocation weight of 45% for October, with standard allocations to both long-term and short-term government bonds [3]. - It notes that the imbalance in credit supply and demand, along with stable liquidity, continues to support the bond market [3]. Group 4: Commodity Allocation - The report expresses a neutral to optimistic view on commodities, recommending a commodity allocation weight of 13.75% for October, with an overweight position in gold [3]. - It highlights that gold prices have recently surged past key resistance levels, supported by factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions [3].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to gradually recover as demand stabilizes and supply-side adjustments begin to take effect, with potential acceleration if supply policies are implemented [1][4]. Demand and Supply Analysis - Demand has decreased, with apparent consumption of five major steel products at 7.5143 million tons, down 1.5339 million tons week-on-week; total inventory rose to 16.0072 million tons, an increase of 1.2786 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 84.27%, a slight decrease of 0.02 percentage points week-on-week, indicating a marginal decline in demand due to the National Day holiday [2]. - Despite the recent decline, the steel demand is expected to gradually recover as the industry is still in the traditional peak season [2]. Profitability and Cost Analysis - The average gross profit per ton for rebar was 167.1 CNY, up 24.3 CNY week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil gross profit was 112.1 CNY, an increase of 29.3 CNY [3]. - The profitability rate for 247 steel companies was 56.28%, down 0.43% week-on-week, indicating a slight decline in overall profitability [3]. - The iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 140.25 million tons, an increase of 242,200 tons, suggesting a potential easing in iron ore prices and improvement in cost factors for the steel industry [3]. Future Outlook - The demand for steel is expected to stabilize, with a reduced negative impact from the real estate sector and steady growth anticipated in infrastructure and manufacturing [4]. - The steel industry is experiencing a market-driven supply adjustment, with over 40% of steel companies currently operating at a loss [4]. - Recent policy proposals aim to continue production cuts and promote the exit of inefficient capacities, supporting a balanced supply-demand dynamic [4]. - Long-term trends indicate that industry concentration will increase, benefiting companies with product structure and cost advantages, especially under stricter environmental regulations [4].