11月6日下午 北京 中国大饭店 多功能厅4AB 会议亮点 大宗商品在这全球风云变换的经济博弈中,承载着反内卷和贸易摩擦下供应 链和制造链重塑的压力、去主权化资产的交易需求以及长期经济博弈下的战 略价值。我们希望通过对当下最重要的商品产业链条分析来向大家展示当下 实体经济和交易市场对这个时代的理解。 怎么理解黄金?全球去主权化资产最重要的表达! 如何看待铜价? Al时代大宗商品新王! 产业反内卷完成几何?新能源产业链重新焕发生机! 黑色金属怎么看? 传统钢厂的再次转型! 猪周期的筑底?看政策和市场双重驱动! 怎么看轮胎上跑出来经济变化?且看橡胶反内卷和出海之路! 议程安排 13:30-14:00 降息周期与长线叙事交错,贵金属主升浪 进行中 王 蓉-国泰君安期货研究所所长助理、有色及贵 金属组行以负责人、目后切证业 ● 14:00-14:30 供应扰动与宏观波动下的有色价格展望 季先飞-国泰君安期货有色及贵金属组联席行政 负责人、首席分析师 ● 14:30-15:00 ● 15:30-16:00 政策与市场双重驱动，生猪周期轮动展望 吴 吴-国泰君安期货农产品组高级分析师 反内卷政策背景下的新能源行情展望 邵 ...

) 13:30-14:10 2026年度宏观展望 梁中华-国泰海通证券宏观首席分析师 11月4日 134 北京·中国大饭I ● 16:20-16:50 2026年度基金评价展望 倪韵婷-国泰海通证券基金评价与研究首席分析师 ● 14:10-14:50 2026年度中国权益投资策略展望 方 奕-国泰海通证券策略首席分析师 ● 14:50-15:20 2026年度港股投资策略展望 吴信坤-国泰海通证券海外策略首席分析师 ● 15:20-15:50 2026年度金融工程策略展望 郑雅斌-国泰海通证券金融工程首席分析师 ● 15:50-16:20 2026年IPO市场展望 王政之-国泰海通证券新股研究首席分析师 ● 16:20-16:50 2026年债市展望 唐元懋-国泰海通证券固定收益研究领域负责人 *参会请联系您的国泰海通对口销售报名 研究运营组制作 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注 ...

Core Insights - The forum focuses on key investment topics, analyzing the asset allocation logic for 2025 and the value of ETFs under the context of major power competition [1] - It emphasizes investment opportunities in Hong Kong stocks, exploring the potential of various ETFs and sharing investment strategies from overseas experts applicable to the Hong Kong market [1] Agenda Highlights - Discussion on asset allocation considerations led by Liu Xin, Assistant General Manager of Minsheng Jia Yin Fund [2] - Exploration of small-cap stocks and enhanced return strategies by Ye Letian and Liu Weilin [2] - Investment logic for innovative pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong stocks presented by Liu Weilin [3] - Opportunities in technology and strategic resources amid major power competition discussed by Lv Yuexian [3] - Outlook on investment opportunities in the Hong Kong market by Lu Yayun [3] - Initial exploration of stock selection strategies for Hong Kong Stock Connect by Luo Lei [3]

山日6日 下午13:30 北京 · 中国大饭店-多功能厅! 会议亮点 全球面临多极化格局与地缘关系新秩序的建立,中国产业升级和转移趋势则不 动摇。无论是欧洲、中东、东南亚、拉美或非洲等地区,中资企业出海面临新的 挑战与机遇。国泰海通证券政策和产业研究院国别研究领域举办本次会议,特邀 多位重磅专家学者与嘉宾,解析当前大国博弈与中资出海的新思路。 议程安排 会议主持人: 国泰海通证券政策和产业研究院国别研究负责人 陈熙淼 ● 13:30-13:35 领导致辞 路 颖 国泰海通证券研究与机构业务委员会副总裁、研究所所长 ● 13:35-14:20 孙彦红 国际地缘政治变化与中美关系走向 王绢思 北京大学国际战略研究院创始院长、北京大学博雅荣休讲席教授、 中华美国学会荣誉会长 ● 14:20-15:05 当前欧洲经济形势、核心政策与中欧经贸关系 中国社会科学院欧洲研究所欧洲经济研究室主任 ● 15:05-15:50 动荡变革中出海中东的挑战与新机遇 王 健 上海社会科学院国际问题研究所所长、中国国际关系学会副会长 ● 15:50-16:35 国泰海通证券机构客户请 日描本会场二维码报名: 关键矿产战略下的中非合作与中 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the upcoming 2026 Annual Conference, highlighting key topics and speakers that will address macroeconomic challenges, investment strategies, and technological advancements in various sectors [2][4][12]. Group 1: Macroeconomic and Investment Outlook - The conference will feature discussions on China's macroeconomic challenges and strategies to address them, presented by experts from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences [4]. - A session will focus on the outlook for the U.S. economy and monetary policy, providing insights into global economic trends [4]. - Investment strategies for 2026 will be explored, including equity investment strategies in China and Hong Kong, as well as financial engineering strategies [4][5]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The future of artificial intelligence (AI) and its opportunities will be a key topic, with discussions on AI's impact on various industries [4][5]. - The conference will also cover advancements in humanoid robotics, including product iterations and applications, as well as the development of AI infrastructure in China [5][8]. Group 3: Consumer and Sectoral Insights - The conference will address the transformation of traditional consumption and the rise of new consumption trends, emphasizing the high growth potential in sectors like food and beverage, beauty, and home appliances [12][14]. - Insights into the agricultural sector will be shared, focusing on opportunities in pet care and livestock farming [14][23]. Group 4: Financial Strategies and Asset Allocation - Discussions will include asset allocation strategies in a low-interest-rate environment, with a focus on the implications for various asset classes [21][31]. - The role of ETFs and quantitative products in modern investment strategies will be examined, highlighting their relevance in the current market landscape [9][32].

新华财经上海10月29日电 国泰海通证券研报表示，2025年9月全国快递企业件量168.8亿件，同比增长 12.7%；2025年1-9月件为1450.8亿件，同比增长17.2%。单价上看，2025年9月快递行业收入同比增长 7.2%，单票收入同比下降4.9%；1-9月快递行业收入同比增长8.9%，单票收入同比下降7.1%。9月快递 行业单票收入降幅同比环比均收窄，反映出价格竞争在行业"反内卷"引导下有所缓和。"反内卷"将有效 缓和行业竞争压力，预计下半年电商快递盈利将开启修复，未来盈利弹性将取决于提价持续性，建议重 点关注邮管局监管力度。 编辑：林郑宏 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Guotai Junan Financial Technology Cultural Festival concluded with a forum aimed at promoting the integration of finance and technology, enhancing financial services for the real economy, and building a collaborative "finance + technology" ecosystem [1][2] Group 1: Event Overview - The forum attracted over 150 participants, including government officials, technology experts, and representatives from financial institutions, emphasizing the importance of collaboration in the financial technology sector [1] - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between Guotai Junan and the Jing'an District government to deepen collaboration in financial technology and industry innovation [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Guotai Junan launched a global lighthouse model for digital transformation in collaboration with Huawei, showcasing innovations in core trading upgrades, AI applications, and data platforms [2][3] - The company introduced a resilient network and information security protection system, which focuses on rapid threat detection and automated response, setting a new standard for security in the brokerage industry [3] Group 3: Strategic Collaborations - During the forum, Guotai Junan established comprehensive strategic partnerships with ten technology companies to foster joint innovation and deepen collaboration in the financial technology space [3][4] - The festival included various activities over four months, culminating in the forum that highlighted the company's commitment to empowering the industry through technology and serving the real economy [4] Group 4: Expert Insights - Notable speakers shared insights on AI in data management, financial security, and the transformative impact of high-quality data sets on the securities industry, emphasizing the role of AI in enhancing financial services [5]

- The BL model is an improvement of the traditional mean-variance optimization (MVO) model, developed by Fisher Black and Robert Litterman in 1990. It integrates Bayesian theory to combine subjective views with quantitative asset allocation models, optimizing asset weights based on investor forecasts of market returns. This model addresses MVO's sensitivity to expected returns and offers higher tolerance compared to purely subjective investment approaches, providing efficient asset allocation solutions[12][13] - The BL model was implemented for both global and domestic assets. For global assets, it utilized indices such as S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, and Nanhua Commodity Index. For domestic assets, it included indices like CSI 300, CSI 1000, and SHFE Gold. Two versions of BL models were developed for each market, focusing on equities, bonds, commodities, and gold[13][14] - The Risk Parity model, introduced by Bridgewater in 2005, aims to equalize risk contributions across asset classes in a portfolio. It calculates initial asset weights based on expected volatility and correlation, then optimizes deviations between actual and expected risk contributions to determine final weights[17][18] - The Risk Parity model was constructed in three steps: selecting appropriate underlying assets, calculating risk contributions of each asset to the portfolio, and solving optimization problems to determine asset weights. It was applied to both global and domestic assets, using indices like CSI 300, CSI 1000, and COMEX Gold for domestic assets, and S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, and Nanhua Commodity Index for global assets[19][21] - The macro factor-based asset allocation model incorporates six macro risks: growth, inflation, interest rates, credit, exchange rates, and liquidity. Using Factor Mimicking Portfolio methodology, high-frequency macro factors were constructed. The strategy involves calculating asset factor exposures, determining benchmark exposures, setting subjective factor deviations based on macro forecasts, and solving for asset weights to reflect macro risk judgments[23][26] - The macro factor-based model was applied to domestic assets, including indices like CSI 300, CSI 1000, and SHFE Gold. For example, in September 2025, subjective factor deviations were set as 0 for growth, inflation, interest rates, and credit, 1 for exchange rates, and 0 for liquidity, reflecting macroeconomic conditions at the time[25][27] - Domestic BL Model 1 achieved weekly returns of 0.1%, monthly returns of 0.38%, and annual returns of 3.97%, with annualized volatility of 2.23% and maximum drawdown of 1.31%[14][17] - Domestic BL Model 2 recorded weekly returns of -0.01%, monthly returns of 0.48%, and annual returns of 3.68%, with annualized volatility of 2.02% and maximum drawdown of 1.06%[14][17] - Global BL Model 1 delivered weekly returns of 0.54%, monthly returns of 0.03%, and annual returns of 1.02%, with annualized volatility of 2.04% and maximum drawdown of 1.64%[14][17] - Global BL Model 2 achieved weekly returns of 0.37%, monthly returns of 0.35%, and annual returns of 2.43%, with annualized volatility of 1.65% and maximum drawdown of 1.28%[14][17] - Domestic Risk Parity Model recorded weekly returns of 0.14%, monthly returns of 0.34%, and annual returns of 3.47%, with annualized volatility of 1.34% and maximum drawdown of 0.76%[21][22] - Global Risk Parity Model achieved weekly returns of 0.22%, monthly returns of 0.39%, and annual returns of 2.99%, with annualized volatility of 1.46% and maximum drawdown of 1.2%[21][22] - Macro Factor-Based Model delivered weekly returns of -0.25%, monthly returns of 0.73%, and annual returns of 4.29%, with annualized volatility of 1.54% and maximum drawdown of 0.64%[27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The speech by the Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) at the 2025 Financial Street Forum emphasizes the need for comprehensive reform in the capital market to support high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan and transition into the 15th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the importance of balancing investment and financing [1][2]. Group 1: Reform Framework - The reform framework focuses on four core tasks: advancing sector reforms, solidifying market stability, expanding institutional openness, and enhancing risk prevention and investor protection [2]. - The implementation of the "1+6" policy in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has shown effectiveness, leading to the initiation of reforms in the ChiNext and optimization of the Beijing Stock Exchange system [2]. - A new refinancing framework is proposed to guide long-term capital into the market, alongside deepening public fund reforms [2]. Group 2: Market Opportunities - The reforms are expected to create new opportunities for investment banking, with an anticipated increase in equity financing driven by the expansion of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and ChiNext reforms, as well as broader merger and acquisition channels [2]. - In the first three quarters, A-share IPOs increased by 67% year-on-year, while refinancing (excluding large issuances) rose by 139%, indicating a robust market environment for leading brokerage firms [2]. - Wealth management and institutional business are expected to see dual upgrades, with long-term capital inflows likely boosting fund distribution and custody services [2]. Group 3: Competitive Advantage - Leading brokerage firms with strong corporate client resources, professional service capabilities, and cross-border service abilities are positioned to maintain their competitive edge in the evolving investment banking ecosystem [2].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the upcoming financial policy and capital market reforms in China, which are expected to further promote economic transformation and enhance the perception of Chinese assets [2][3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching 4000 points, indicating a "transformation bull" market in China, which is becoming an increasingly important asset in global allocations [2]. - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session reaffirmed the focus on economic development, serving as a cornerstone for capital market valuations [2]. Group 2 - The People's Bank of China announced the resumption of public market treasury bond trading, signaling a shift towards substantial monetary policy easing and a decrease in risk-free interest rates [3]. - The introduction of the "Double Innovation" reform and the new refinancing framework is expected to create a virtuous cycle between capital markets, economic transformation, and technological advancement [4]. - The establishment of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's growth tier and the reform of the ChiNext Board will support economic transformation and align with national strategies [4]. Group 3 - Strict regulatory measures and the establishment of market stabilization mechanisms are aimed at improving the investability of Chinese assets and enhancing resilience against risks [5]. - The article highlights the potential for a diverse market with various sectors, including technology, new materials, and financial stability, to experience revaluation [5]. - The focus on technology growth sectors such as internet, TMT, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals is noted as a key driver for the current market trend [5].