[Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 12 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：李时樟 执业证书：S1030522060001 电话：18065826333 邮箱：lisz@csco.com.cn 分析师：罗晴 执业证书：S1030524110001 电话：13603091122 邮箱：luoqing@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 TMT [Table_Title] 海外云厂商资本开支指引乐观 TMT 行业周报（5 月第 2 周） [Table_S 行业观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_ReportType] [Table_BaseData] 1) 五一假期前后市场回顾。TMT 板块内一级行业 4/28-5/09 涨跌 幅为：通信（5.57%）、计算机（4.44%）、传媒（4.13%）、 电子（1.99%），TMT 板块整体跑赢沪深 300（1.56%）。板块 内涨幅靠前的三级子行业分别为通信网络设备及器件 （8.13%）、通信应用增值服务（6.72%）、营销代理（6.7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic large model industry is attempting to break through its current challenges and reconstruct a new order, but the unstable market environment poses significant risks [1] Group 1: Open Source Trends - DeepSeek has disrupted the industry's perception of open-source models, prompting OpenAI's CEO to reconsider the validity of open-source strategies [1] - Domestic large model companies like Alibaba, Baidu, and SenseTime are accelerating their open-source initiatives [1] - Open-source is seen as a key strategy to reduce dependency on foreign software and hardware, but the commercial viability of open-source projects remains complex [2][5] Group 2: Challenges in Implementation - Developers face significant technical adaptation and maintenance costs, despite open-source models lowering the technical barrier [4] - The integration of large models into existing systems requires extensive customization, which can be resource-intensive for companies [4] - The complexity of data acquisition, cleaning, and labeling poses additional challenges for businesses, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises [4] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investors are cautious about the open-source model due to the unclear profitability and traditional software sales evaluation methods not being applicable [5] - The potential for significant financial loss if investments in proprietary models are undermined by open-source alternatives is a concern for investors [4][5] Group 4: Business Models - Chinese large model companies are adopting a "free-to-use plus value-added services" model to build a commercial framework around open-source models [6][8] - Companies like Baidu are leveraging their cloud services to monetize the usage of their open-source models, creating a win-win situation for developers and the company [8] - The success of open-source models may depend more on the quality of cloud services than on the models themselves, as seen in the strategies of Meta and Hugging Face [9][10] Group 5: Future Outlook - Open-source is viewed as a pathway for the Chinese large model industry to overcome technological barriers, but commercial sustainability is equally important [10] - The increasing tariff barriers from the U.S. add pressure to the large model industry, making the choice of cloud platforms more critical than the open-source models themselves [10]

Group 1: Xiaomi Group - Founder Lei Jun shared that the past month has been the most challenging since founding Xiaomi, experiencing low emotions but also gaining insights during this reflective period [1][10] - The emotional vulnerability expressed by the founder aligns with brand management strategies, transforming personal struggles into a collective empathy point for the brand [1] - Xiaomi's unique fan ecosystem allows for rapid emotional resonance, which can be seen as a form of "trust savings" that helps mitigate short-term crises [1] Group 2: Meituan - Meituan launched the first full-process service guarantee plan "Anxin Shanguo" in the instant retail industry, upgrading 14 measures across service experience, delivery, and after-sales [2] - The strategic significance of this launch lies in standardizing services to capture user mindshare and strengthen the platform's competitive edge in instant retail [2] Group 3: Kweichow Moutai - Kweichow Moutai appointed Zhang Yixing as the brand ambassador for its cultural tourism division, aiming to attract a younger demographic [3] - The choice of a popular figure among Generation Z aligns with Moutai's strategy to integrate its liquor and tourism offerings [3] Group 4: JD Group - JD's "618" shopping festival will officially start on May 31, with early promotions beginning on May 13, featuring multiple subsidy programs [5] - The early launch and diverse subsidy offerings aim to reshape consumer price perceptions and reinforce JD's brand image as a low-price platform [5] Group 5: JA Solar Technology - JA Solar signed MOU agreements with Australian clean energy companies NSEG and YES Group to supply a total of 250MW of high-efficiency photovoltaic modules by 2025 [6] - This partnership highlights JA Solar's deep trust with local leaders and showcases the adaptability of its products in Australia's complex geographical and climatic conditions [6] Group 6: CATL - CATL unveiled the TENER Stack, a 9MWh ultra-large capacity energy storage system solution, at the Munich Battery Storage Exhibition [7] - This system features significant advancements in capacity, flexibility, safety, and transport efficiency, with a five-year zero-degradation characteristic [7] Group 7: Lenovo Group - Lenovo launched a comprehensive super-intelligent matrix covering personal, enterprise, and urban levels at the Tech World 2025 innovation conference [8] - This move signifies Lenovo's ambition to transition from a hardware provider to an AI service provider, although large-scale application will require time to validate [8] Group 8: Alibaba Group - Alibaba CEO Wu Yongming called for a return to the company's entrepreneurial roots, emphasizing the need for innovation in the face of AI technology's risks and opportunities [9] - This call to action signals a significant organizational transformation aimed at breaking down barriers and fostering a culture of entrepreneurship [9] Group 9: Baidu Group - Baidu Apollo and Shenzhou Car Rental signed a strategic cooperation agreement to launch the world's first autonomous vehicle rental service [11][12] - This collaboration aims to accelerate the application of autonomous driving technology across diverse scenarios, enhancing user safety and convenience [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in U.S.-U.K. trade relations and the implications for the stock market, highlighting a new trade agreement and its potential impact on investments [1][4]. Market Performance - On May 9, U.S. stock indices opened higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.08%, S&P 500 up 0.26%, and Nasdaq up 0.50% [1][2]. - Major tech stocks saw gains, with Tesla rising over 5% and other companies like Meta, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Amazon experiencing slight increases [2]. - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose over 1%, with individual stocks like Weibo and Tencent Music also showing positive movement [2]. Trade Agreement Details - President Trump announced a new trade agreement with the U.K., which includes a partial rollback of tariffs and expanded market access for certain products [3][4]. - The agreement stipulates that the first 100,000 cars exported from the U.K. to the U.S. will be subject to a 10% tariff, while any additional cars will incur a 25% tariff [3]. U.S.-China Trade Talks - Trump indicated that substantial negotiations with China regarding trade would take place soon, suggesting that the current 145% tariffs on Chinese goods would likely be reduced [4]. - Chinese officials reiterated their opposition to unilateral tariffs imposed by the U.S. and emphasized the need for negotiations based on equality and mutual respect [6][7].

Core Insights - The article presents the market capitalization rankings of the top 50 Chinese technology and internet companies as of May 9, 2025, highlighting significant players in the industry [1]. Group 1: Market Capitalization Rankings - The top three companies by market capitalization are Alibaba Group with 3003.74 billion, Xiaomi Group with 1693.44 billion, and Pinduoduo with 1560.19 billion [3][4]. - Other notable companies in the top 10 include Meituan at 1104.71 billion, JD.com at 495.86 billion, and Baidu at 301.32 billion [4][5]. - The rankings reflect a diverse range of companies, including those in e-commerce, food delivery, and automotive sectors, indicating a broad technological landscape [5][6]. Group 2: Emerging Players - Companies like Li Auto and Kuaishou are also featured in the rankings, with market capitalizations of 291.48 billion and 286.48 billion respectively, showcasing the growth of electric vehicles and social media platforms [4][5]. - The presence of companies such as Xpeng Motors and NIO, with market caps of 186.55 billion and 89.68 billion respectively, highlights the increasing importance of the electric vehicle sector in the technology landscape [5][6]. Group 3: Overall Trends - The data indicates a strong performance of technology companies in China, with significant market capitalizations reflecting investor confidence and growth potential in the sector [1][3]. - The rankings are calculated based on the latest exchange rates, emphasizing the importance of currency fluctuations in assessing market value [6].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Modelers Community, led by China Telecom's Tianyi Cloud, aims to create an open platform for AI developers, providing resources such as models, data, and tools, while fostering collaboration across the entire AI industry chain [2][6][46] Group 1: Community Structure and Governance - The Modelers Community has officially formed a council responsible for managing and developing the community [3][6] - The council consists of representatives from various sectors of the AI industry, including chip companies, model and data enterprises, research institutions, and ecological organizations, totaling 14 members [7][9] - The governance structure includes committees focused on governance, construction, and operations, along with a secretariat for coordination [11][16] Group 2: Resources and Offerings - The community provides a wide range of resources, including various AI models, datasets, and tools optimized for different computing facilities [18][21] - Notable open-source models such as DeepSeek and Qwen have been included, with adaptations for domestic hardware [19][21] - The community also offers free domestic computing resources in collaboration with industry members [21] Group 3: Collaboration and Impact - The Modelers Community aims to bridge the gap between academia and industry, facilitating the practical application of academic research through demos and collaborative projects [24][28] - Small and medium enterprises benefit from the community by accessing open-source models that enhance their product offerings [26][28] - Future plans include partnerships with universities for joint talent development, expanding the community's reach [29] Group 4: Need for the Community - The Modelers Community addresses gaps in existing open-source platforms, particularly in the AI domain, by promoting collaboration and resource sharing among developers [30][42] - It aims to resolve issues related to data ownership and the challenges of integrating various AI tools and models [40][44] - The community's neutral and public-oriented approach distinguishes it from other platforms, making it a vital organizer for the AI industry [43][45]

Group 1 - Apple collaborates with Baidu and Alibaba for AI, with Baidu's technology share at 35% and Alibaba's at 65%, due to strategic missteps by Baidu [4] - Li Auto's CEO Zhu Jiangming claims his current annual salary is 80,000, solely for social security payments, and he has not drawn a salary since the IPO [6] - Alibaba is selling off assets, including shares in Wanda Film and YTO Express, totaling nearly 600 million [8][9] Group 2 - Microsoft has ceased providing office software to BGI Genomics, which has now partnered with Kingsoft Office for a strategic collaboration [10] - Geely has implemented a rotating presidency system, with Dai Qing as the first president, focusing on optimizing management structure [13] - Neta Auto's parent company, Hozon Auto, is beginning to repay debts, having previously faced issues with tax and service interruptions [14] Group 3 - OpenAI appoints Fidji Simo as CEO of its new applications division, indicating a strategic shift towards enhancing product development and market expansion [22][23] - Intel is negotiating wafer foundry collaborations with Nvidia and Google, with confirmed orders from Microsoft [24] - Apple is expanding its in-house chip development for future devices, including smart glasses and AI servers, with production expected to start by late 2026 or 2027 [25]

Group 1: Company Performance - Baidu Inc. closed at $87.65, reflecting a +1.1% increase from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500 which gained 0.58% [1] - Over the past month, Baidu's shares have increased by 7.58%, while the Computer and Technology sector rose by 14.88% and the S&P 500 by 11.33% [1] Group 2: Upcoming Earnings - Baidu's earnings report is scheduled for May 21, 2025, with an expected EPS of $1.96, indicating a 28.99% decline from the same quarter last year [2] - The consensus estimate for quarterly revenue is $4.3 billion, down 1.56% from the previous year [2] Group 3: Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are projected at $10.08 per share and revenue at $18.8 billion, representing changes of -4.27% and +1.65% respectively from the prior year [3] - Recent analyst estimate revisions suggest a positive outlook for Baidu's business [3][4] Group 4: Zacks Rank and Valuation - Baidu currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with a recent consensus EPS projection moving 0.06% higher [5] - The company is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 8.6, significantly lower than the industry average of 18.29 [6] Group 5: Industry Context - The Internet - Services industry, part of the Computer and Technology sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 149, placing it in the bottom 40% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) has shown a recent stock price increase of 7.8% over the past month, outperforming both the Zacks Internet – Services industry and the Zacks Computer and Technology sector, despite being 25.4% below its 52-week high [1][2][22] Group 1: Stock Performance and Valuation - BIDU's stock is currently trading at a discount compared to its industry and historical metrics, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio below its five-year average, indicating a deep discount relative to the broader tech sector and Chinese peers like Alibaba and Tencent [18][22] - Analysts have revised their earnings estimates upward for BIDU, with the consensus estimate for 2025 earnings per share increasing from $9.59 to $10.08 over the past 60 days, reflecting a positive shift in sentiment [20][21] Group 2: AI and Technological Advancements - Baidu is advancing its AI capabilities with the introduction of the ERNIE 4.5 Turbo model, which processes and generates content across various formats, and the ERNIE X1 Turbo model, designed for deep reasoning tasks, both offered at significantly reduced prices [9][10] - The company is exploring AI translation for animal communication, aiming to enhance emotional understanding between pets and humans, aligning with its broader AI initiatives [8] Group 3: Business Growth and Revenue Streams - Baidu's AI Cloud revenue surged by 26% year-over-year in Q4 2024, with generative AI-related revenue nearly tripling, indicating strong enterprise demand for its AI solutions [13][22] - The Apollo Go robotaxi service has gained scale, providing over 1.1 million rides in Q4 2024, marking a 36% year-over-year increase, and has begun fully driverless operations across China [11][12] Group 4: Financial Position and Shareholder Value - Baidu closed 2024 with a solid net cash position of approximately RMB 170.5 billion and free cash flow of RMB 13.1 billion, demonstrating operational efficiency and prudent capital allocation [14] - The company has repurchased over $1 billion in shares as part of a broader $5 billion buyback program, reflecting management's confidence in long-term prospects and commitment to shareholder value creation [14][22]

Core Insights - The article discusses the performance of AI products in April 2025, highlighting growth trends in both applications and websites, with a focus on the top performers in various categories [6][7][9]. Group 1: Global AI Application and Website Performance - 68% of the top 100 global AI applications are experiencing growth, while only 35% of the top 100 AI websites show an increase [6]. - The fastest-growing AI website among the top 50 is lovable.dev, which saw a growth of 43.24% with a monthly traffic of 30.82 million [6][10]. - The top 10 global AI applications include several Chinese products, while only two Chinese websites made it to the top 10, indicating a lack of website traffic from domestic sources [7][8]. Group 2: Traffic and Growth Metrics - Manus ranks 50th globally with a monthly traffic of 18.36 million, with China and the US each accounting for 11% of the total traffic [8]. - GenSpark leads the global growth chart with a monthly traffic of 9.38 million and a growth rate of 101.73% [9][23]. - Baidu's Orange Edition ranks second in growth with a traffic of 6.96 million and a growth rate of 60.94% [10][23]. Group 3: Domestic Growth Trends - The domestic growth leaderboard is topped by Kousi Space, which achieved a staggering growth rate of 10,000% with a traffic of 1.78 million [22]. - The only AI search engine in the top 20 experiencing growth is ChatGPT, which increased by 13.04% to reach 5.31 billion monthly visits [11][12]. - Traditional search engines are seeing a decline in traffic, with Google reporting a drop in search volume, indicating a shift towards AI tools for information retrieval [11][12]. Group 4: Specific Product Rankings - The top AI website in April 2025 is ChatGPT, with a traffic of 5.31 billion and a growth of 13.04% [13]. - The second-ranked website is New Bing, which experienced a decline of 5.27% with a traffic of 1.45 billion [25]. - The AI product rankings also highlight significant declines in traffic for several traditional search engines, indicating a broader trend of users shifting to AI-driven platforms [24][25].