各位投资者大家早上好我是智商证券的玛丽再次给大家带来民创优品的重点推荐这个公司我们推了比较长的时间虽然过去的股价表现相对一般我们还是坚信距离它有它表现的时间点是越来越近了所以在这个位置上还是有必要要重点再次做一下提醒 名车优品是一家全球化的家居日用潮玩百货商只不过它是嫁接了年轻人非常喜爱的各种IP资产比如说像哈利波特 巴比 鲁皮 吉卡娃等等一百多个大家耳熟能详的IP资产公司2013年开始成立成立到现在一路高歌猛进 即使是今天经历了疫情也就是十多年的时间公司已经发展成国内四千多家海外大概是三千家左右今年的收入有望达到一百七十亿利润超过二十八亿的这样的一家企业应当说过去的历史还是非常的优秀的 公司的核心成长驱动主要是来自于国内和国外两个部分那海外这一部分呢最大的成长驱动是来自于美国市场美国市场在2022年跑通之后 2023年就进入到比较快的渠道开拓阶段当然主要是集中在2023年的四季度2023年底公司在美国大概是118家渠道那根据我们跟踪到的情况呢 目前公司有计划落地的渠道数量已经是260多家了也就是过去的一年公司大概在美国新开了就是2024年新开应该是在140多家到150家这样的一个渠道数量那美国本身它的单电的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MINISO (09896.HK) [1] Core Views - MINISO held a global brand strategy upgrade conference on October 30, emphasizing "quality without price competition" and positioning itself as a "global IP co-branding collection store" [2] - The company anticipates a transformation in offline consumption, focusing on experiential consumption and emotional value for consumers, aiming to become the world's leading IP design retail group [2] - MINISO has collaborated with over 150 global IPs, achieving cumulative sales of over 800 million items, with plans to launch over 10,000 new IP products annually, targeting 50% of sales from IP products by 2028 [2] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The total revenue forecast for MINISO is projected to grow from 13,838 million RMB in 2023 to 24,311 million RMB by 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.42%, 22.90%, 21.13%, and 18.00% respectively [1][4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 2,253 million RMB in 2023 to 3,730 million RMB in 2026, with growth rates of 111.48%, 12.28%, 24.12%, and 18.77% respectively [1][4] - The report forecasts a diluted EPS of 1.79 RMB in 2023, increasing to 2.96 RMB by 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 19.96 to 12.06 [1][4] Store Expansion Strategy - MINISO's global flagship store strategy has effectively enhanced brand awareness, with potential for 40,000 stores worldwide based on demographic calculations [3] - The company is restructuring its domestic store product lines and franchise system to optimize store expansion, including seven defined store formats and a shift from store authorization to a commercial system authorization [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Miniso (MNSO) with a 12-month price target of **US$26.4/HK$52** per ADR/H-share, based on **18x CY2025E P/E** [1][8] Core Views - Miniso is expected to report **21% YoY growth in Group sales** to **RMB4.58bn** in 3Q24, driven by strong overseas performance, particularly in distributor markets [1][3] - **China sales** are expected to grow by **8% YoY**, slightly below management's earlier target, due to a weak consumption backdrop [1] - **Overseas sales** are projected to grow by **40% YoY**, with **DTC markets** up **55% YoY** and **distributor markets** accelerating to **28% YoY growth** [1][4] - **Top Toy brand** is expected to grow by **51% YoY**, driven by store expansion and favorable product mix [1][5] Sales Breakdown - **Mainland China sales** are forecasted at **RMB2.49bn**, growing **8% YoY**, decelerating from **18% YoY** in 2Q24 [4] - **Overseas sales** are expected to reach **RMB1.8bn**, with **DTC markets** contributing **55% YoY growth** and **distributor markets** growing **28% YoY** [4] - **Top Toy brand** sales are projected to reach **RMB272mn**, with a **33% GPM**, reflecting a **4pp QoQ expansion** due to a favorable product mix [5] Margins and Profitability - **Group GPM** is expected to expand by **4pp YoY**, driven by a higher mix of **overseas DTC** and **Top Toy margin improvement** [1] - **Adjusted OPM** is forecasted to decline by **2pp YoY** to **19%**, due to near-term investments in **US store expansion** and **24H Super stores** [1] - **Adjusted net income** is expected to grow by **9% YoY** to **RMB696mn**, with a **15.2% adjusted NPM** [5] Store Expansion - **Miniso brand** is expected to add **105 net stores** in Mainland China in 3Q24, reaching **4,220 stores** by the end of the quarter [3] - **Overseas store openings** are projected at **180 net stores** in 3Q24, with a full-year target of **550-650 stores** [3] - **Top Toy brand** is expected to reach **235 stores** by 3Q24, with **40 net openings** in the quarter and a full-year target of **112 stores** [5] Catalysts and Outlook - Key catalysts for 4Q24 include the **launch of Harry Potter IP** and the **upcoming holiday season**, particularly in the US where store expansion is accelerating [1] - The report highlights potential **tax credits** for the US business in 2H24, given the turnaround from the previous year [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso [2] Core Views - The report anticipates that overseas agency growth will exceed expectations in Q3 2024, while domestic performance may be slightly weaker than expected. The continued expansion of overseas stores is expected to contribute positively in Q4 [2] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the company for 2024-2026 have been lowered to 2.751 billion, 3.342 billion, and 4.023 billion HKD respectively, down from previous estimates of 2.869 billion, 3.448 billion, and 4.132 billion HKD [2] - The target price has been adjusted to 47.40 HKD from 49.60 HKD, based on a 20x PE for 2024 [2] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The report estimates an overall revenue growth of approximately 18.3% for Q3 2024, translating to an expected revenue of about 4.484 billion HKD. Domestic revenue growth is projected at around 7.0%, while overseas direct and agency market growth rates are expected to be 55% and 28% respectively [2] - The contribution of high-margin overseas direct business is expected to increase, leading to improvements in gross margin both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [2] Store Expansion - The company is expected to add over 100 new stores domestically and 150-200 stores overseas in Q3 2024, aligning with the annual store opening plan of 350-450 domestic stores and 550-650 overseas stores [2] - The launch of Harry Potter IP co-branded products is anticipated to drive sales in both domestic and overseas markets, enhancing the willingness of franchisees to open stores and agents to purchase products [2] Profitability Outlook - The report suggests that the overall gross margin is likely to improve due to the increasing proportion of high-margin products and the release of operational leverage as overseas direct business performance improves [2] - The expected sales and management expense ratio for Q3 2024 is projected at 26.10%, with an adjusted net profit margin of approximately 15.5%, leading to an adjusted net profit of about 694 million HKD [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Miniso Group [5] Core Views - Miniso is the largest private label lifestyle retailer globally, with a rapid expansion of stores both domestically and internationally. The company aims to increase its store count by 900-1100 annually from 2024 to 2028, potentially doubling its total stores by 2028 [4][13] - The company is focusing on increasing the revenue share from IP products, which are expected to enhance overall profitability. The average annual revenue growth rate is projected to be no less than 20% from 2024 to 2028 [4][5] - The efficient supply chain system supports high cost-performance products and enables global expansion. The company has a low inventory turnover period of 68 days, which is better than its main competitors [4][39] Summary by Sections 1. Rapid Growth of Global Private Label Retailer - Miniso has opened 6,630 stores globally as of March 31, 2024, with 4,034 in China and 2,596 overseas, showing significant year-on-year growth [4][13] - The company achieved revenues of 138.4 billion CNY in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 39%, and a net profit of 22.5 billion CNY, growing 112% year-on-year [4][15] 2. Vision to Become the Leading IP Design Retail Group - The company aims to increase the share of IP products in its revenue from 26% in 2023 to 50% by 2028, capitalizing on the growing consumer interest in IP products [4][35] - The average annual per capita consumption of IP products in China is significantly lower than the global average, indicating substantial growth potential [29] 3. Super Supply Chain and Unique Business Model - Miniso employs a highly efficient supply chain that allows for rapid product launches and minimizes inventory risks, with an average of 930 new SKUs introduced monthly [37][38] - The company utilizes three business models (partner, agent, and direct) to expand its store network, adapting to local market conditions [42][43] 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 28.1 billion CNY, 35.2 billion CNY, and 39.6 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.23 CNY, 2.80 CNY, and 3.14 CNY [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Miniso [5]. Core Insights - Miniso is positioned as a leading IP-driven retail brand, focusing on global expansion and innovative product offerings, with a significant market share in both domestic and international markets [2][3]. - The company has established a strong presence with over 7,063 stores globally by mid-2024, leveraging its dual-brand strategy with Miniso and TOP TOY [2][11]. - Financial projections indicate robust revenue growth, with expected revenues of RMB 165.72 billion, RMB 190.31 billion, and RMB 211.61 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 20%, 15%, and 11% [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Miniso has achieved a global market share of 6.7% and 11.4% in the self-owned brand retail market, leading the industry [2][11]. - The company operates two main brands: Miniso, which offers a wide range of household products, and TOP TOY, focusing on trendy toys [12][31]. 2. Market Dynamics - The global self-owned brand retail market is projected to grow significantly, with Miniso capitalizing on this trend through its innovative product offerings and competitive pricing [25][28]. - The trend towards personalized and high-quality products is driving the growth of the household goods market, which is expected to reach RMB 5.1 trillion in 2023 [25][28]. 3. Financial Performance - Miniso's revenue for FY2024 is projected to increase by 34% to RMB 153.91 billion, with overseas revenue expected to grow by 44.45% to RMB 55.21 billion [20][22]. - The company has seen a consistent improvement in gross margins, with an overall gross margin of 43.1% anticipated for FY2024 [20][22]. 4. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape in the self-owned brand retail market is fragmented, with Miniso leading with a market share of 11.4% in China [36]. - In the trendy toy market, TOP TOY has quickly captured a 1.1% market share, ranking seventh in the industry [31][36].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company plans to acquire a 29.4% stake in Yonghui Supermarket for RMB 6.27 billion, which will make it the largest shareholder [3] - The acquisition is expected to improve the retail landscape, leveraging Yonghui's extensive offline retail network [3] - The transaction is anticipated to be completed in the first half of 2025, pending shareholder and regulatory approvals [3] - The company aims to enhance Yonghui's operational efficiency through its supply chain management capabilities [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - CY2023A: RMB 13,838 million - CY2024E: RMB 17,008 million (up 22.90% YoY) - CY2025E: RMB 20,602 million (up 21.13% YoY) - CY2026E: RMB 24,311 million (up 18.00% YoY) [2] - Net profit projections are as follows: - CY2023A: RMB 2,253 million - CY2024E: RMB 2,530 million (up 12.28% YoY) - CY2025E: RMB 3,140 million (up 24.12% YoY) - CY2026E: RMB 3,730 million (up 18.77% YoY) [2] - The latest diluted EPS projections are: - CY2023A: RMB 1.79 - CY2024E: RMB 2.01 - CY2025E: RMB 2.49 - CY2026E: RMB 2.96 [2] - The P/E ratios based on the latest diluted EPS are: - CY2024E: 14.81 - CY2025E: 11.93 - CY2026E: 10.04 [2] Market Position - Yonghui Supermarket is the second-largest chain supermarket in China by sales, following Walmart [3] - The company is optimistic about the improvement in the overall operational efficiency of the offline retail sector in China [3]

Financial Performance - Revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 7,758,743, representing a 25.0% increase year-over-year from RMB 6,206,330[14]. - Gross profit increased by 37.9% to RMB 3,389,786 for the same period, compared to RMB 2,457,392 in 2023[14]. - Operating profit rose by 18.1% to RMB 1,494,809, up from RMB 1,265,941 in the previous year[14]. - Profit for the period attributable to equity shareholders increased by 16.4% to RMB 1,170,102, compared to RMB 1,004,836 in 2023[14]. - Basic earnings per share grew by 16.0% to RMB 0.94, up from RMB 0.81 in the prior year[14]. - Adjusted net profit, a non-IFRS measure, was RMB 1,241,886, reflecting a 17.8% increase from RMB 1,054,220[14]. - Adjusted EBITDA also saw a significant rise of 26.0%, reaching RMB 1,967,354 compared to RMB 1,561,788 in the previous year[14]. - For the six months ended June 30, 2024, MINISO's profit for the period was RMB 1,177,379,000, an increase of 15.7% from RMB 1,017,918,000 in the same period of 2023[25]. - Adjusted net profit for the same period was RMB 1,241,886,000, reflecting a growth of 17.8% compared to RMB 1,054,220,000 in 2023[25]. - Adjusted EBITDA reached RMB 1,967,354,000, up 26% from RMB 1,561,788,000 in the previous year[25]. Store Expansion and Market Presence - The total number of MINISO stores increased from 6,413 as of December 31, 2023, to 6,868 as of June 30, 2024, representing an increase of 7.1%[28]. - The number of TOP TOY stores rose from 148 to 195 during the same period, marking a growth of 31.8%[28]. - As of June 30, 2024, there were over 4,100 MINISO stores in mainland China and over 2,700 stores in overseas markets[34]. - The number of directly operated MINISO stores in mainland China increased from 15 to 29, while overseas stores rose from 176 to 343[35]. - The total number of MINISO stores in mainland China increased from 3,604 as of June 30, 2023, to 4,115 as of June 30, 2024, marking a growth of 14.2%[45]. - The number of MINISO stores in third- or lower-tier cities increased from 1,634 to 1,869, reflecting the company's strategy to penetrate various tiers of cities[45][46]. - The number of directly operated TOP TOY stores increased from 9 to 21, while stores operated under the MINISO Retail Partner model rose from 109 to 174 during the same period[37]. - The company plans to focus on expanding the TOP TOY brand in first- and second-tier cities while also penetrating lower-tier cities[47]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from mainland China was RMB 5,026.7 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, a 17.2% increase from RMB 4,290.7 million in the same period of 2023[91]. - Revenue from overseas markets rose by 42.6% to RMB 2,732.0 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 1,915.7 million in 2023[92]. - The total GMV for MINISO stores in overseas markets increased from RMB 4,538 million in the first half of 2023 to RMB 6,401 million in the first half of 2024, a growth of 41%[72]. - The total GMV for MINISO in mainland China reached RMB 7,097 million in the first half of 2024, up from RMB 6,140 million in the same period of 2023, marking a growth of 15.6%[67]. Expenses and Financial Ratios - Selling and distribution expenses increased by 65.8% from RMB918.0 million for the six months ended June 30, 2023, to RMB1,522.1 million for the same period in 2024[100]. - General and administrative expenses rose by 30.9% from RMB319.7 million to RMB418.6 million for the same periods[101]. - Net cash from operating activities increased by 4.9% year over year to RMB1,293.8 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024[121]. - Current ratio was 2.4 as of June 30, 2024, compared to 2.3 as of December 31, 2023[122]. - The company's gearing ratio was 0.1% as of June 30, 2024, calculated as loans and borrowings divided by total equity[136]. Corporate Governance - The company has complied with all applicable provisions of the Corporate Governance Code during the six months ended June 30, 2024, except for the recommendation regarding the separation of the roles of chairman and chief executive officer[158]. - The company does not have a separate chairman and chief executive officer; Mr. Ye currently holds both positions, which the Board believes ensures consistent leadership and effective strategic planning[159]. - The company has established three committees: Audit Committee, Compensation Committee, and Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee, to oversee specific aspects of its affairs[165]. - The Audit Committee has reviewed the unaudited interim financial report for the six months ended June 30, 2024, and discussed accounting policies and internal control matters with senior management[167]. - The independent auditor, KPMG, has reviewed the unaudited interim financial report in accordance with Hong Kong Standard on Review Engagements 2410[168]. Employee and Compensation - The total remuneration cost for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 685.5 million, compared to RMB 441.6 million for the same period in 2023[153]. - The company employed a total of 5,245 full-time employees as of June 30, 2024, with 2,400 in mainland China and 2,845 in overseas regions[151]. - The company regularly reviews its employee compensation policies and may grant discretionary bonuses and stock options based on individual performance evaluations[155]. Shareholding Structure - As of June 30, 2024, Mr. Ye holds a total of 789,541,061 shares, representing 62.7% of the company's shareholding[183]. - Mini Investment Limited has a beneficial interest in 328,290,482 shares, accounting for 26.1% of the company's shareholding, and also holds a short position of 14,000,000 shares (1.1%)[192]. - YGF MC Limited holds 203,401,382 shares, which is 16.2% of the company's shareholding[192]. - The total number of shares in issue as of June 30, 2024, is 1,259,282,577[189].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [4][19]. Core Views - The acquisition of a 29.4% stake in Yonghui Supermarket for 6.27 billion RMB positions the company as the largest shareholder, potentially reshaping the offline retail landscape through strategic collaboration [4][5]. - The company remains focused on its core retail business in the short term, with a five-year growth guidance unchanged, emphasizing product IP development and overseas expansion [4][13]. - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's influence in offline retail, while Yonghui's ongoing restructuring may provide growth opportunities in the future [4][13]. Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - The company announced the acquisition of a 29.4% stake in Yonghui Supermarket for 6.27 billion RMB, becoming the largest shareholder [4][5]. - The acquisition price is set at 2.35 RMB per share, representing a 3.1% premium over the previous day's closing price [5]. Financial Performance - Yonghui Supermarket has approximately 850 stores across over 25 provinces, with historical revenue and net profit growth rates of 28% and 22% respectively from 2007 to 2020 [8]. - In the first half of the current year, Yonghui reported revenue of 37.78 billion RMB, down 10.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 275 million RMB, down 26.3% year-on-year [8]. Strategic Implications - The acquisition is seen as a strategic move to leverage Yonghui's store locations and supply chain capabilities, potentially enhancing the company's product offerings and market reach [10][11]. - The company aims to implement a model similar to Costco in China, focusing on both specialty retail and low-cost retail strategies [10][11]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for the company from 2024 to 2026 are 2.755 billion RMB, 3.330 billion RMB, and 3.958 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11x, 9x, and 8x [4][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The acquisition of a 29.4% stake in Yonghui Supermarket for 6.3 billion RMB is expected to position the company as the largest shareholder, enhancing its influence in the retail sector [2]. - Yonghui Supermarket, a leading player in the domestic supermarket industry, is implementing a transformation plan to improve store profitability, with a total of approximately 850 stores across over 25 provinces and municipalities [2]. - The company aims to leverage its extensive retail network and supply chain to enhance its product offerings and operational efficiency, while also assisting Yonghui in developing high-quality private label products [3]. - Short-term revenue growth is anticipated due to ongoing store expansions, while long-term competitive advantages are expected to solidify the company's market leadership [3]. Financial Projections - The adjusted net profit for the company is projected to be 2.83 billion, 3.49 billion, and 4.17 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 20.0%, 23.3%, and 19.5% [3]. - For the fiscal years 2025 and 2026, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.11 billion and 3.81 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.8% and 22.4% [3][4]. - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 13.8%, 34.1%, 29.0%, and 21.1% for the fiscal years 2025 to 2026 [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focused on expanding its business footprint through continuous store openings, which is expected to provide significant revenue elasticity [3]. - The competitive advantages include a strong product lineup, quality supply chain, asset-light operational model, and a global strategy that will help capture more market share [3].