Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Miniso (9896.HK) based on its strong performance and positive outlook for Q4 sales [1]. Core Views - Miniso's revenue for Q3 2024 reached 4.523 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, with adjusted net profit of 686 million RMB, up 6.9% [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from robust sales performance in both domestic and overseas markets during the peak season in Q4 2024 [1]. - The report highlights the steady growth in the Chinese mainland market and the rapid expansion in overseas markets, with a significant increase in revenue from international operations [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, Miniso achieved total revenue of 12.281 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, with adjusted net profit of 1.928 billion RMB, up 13.7% [1]. - Revenue breakdown shows that the Chinese mainland and overseas markets generated 7.738 billion RMB and 4.543 billion RMB, respectively, with growth rates of 14% and 41% [1]. Market Expansion - As of September 30, 2024, Miniso had a total of 4,250 stores in the Chinese mainland, with a net increase of 324 stores in Q1-Q3 2024 [1]. - The overseas market saw a revenue increase of 41.5%, with a total of 2,936 stores, reflecting a net increase of 449 stores [1]. Product and Brand Development - The company is deepening collaborations with top global IPs such as Disney and Warner Bros, launching a range of co-branded products, including those featuring the Harry Potter franchise [1]. - Top Toy brand also showed strong growth, with a revenue increase of 42.5% in Q1-Q3 2024, and the first overseas store opened in Bangkok, Thailand [1]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin improved to 44.1%, up 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by an increase in high-margin product sales and the contribution from Top Toy [1]. - Selling and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue increased to 20.51% and 5.33%, respectively, reflecting the costs associated with store expansion [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for MINISO (09896.HK) [1][7] Core Views - MINISO's domestic business shows a steady increase in average transaction value, with gross margin continuing to improve in Q3 2024 compared to previous quarters [1][3] - The company achieved a revenue of 12.281 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.8%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.928 billion yuan, up 13.7% year-on-year [1][3] Summary by Sections Company Performance - For Q3 2024, MINISO reported a revenue of 4.523 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, with domestic revenue growing by 8.7% and overseas revenue by 39.8% [3][6] - The company has opened 324 new stores in China, bringing the total to 4,250 stores by the end of Q3 2024 [3][6] Financial Metrics - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 44.1%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 gross margin at 44.9%, up 3.1 percentage points [6][7] - The adjusted net profit margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 15.7%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [6][7] Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve a net increase of 900-1100 stores in 2024, with a revenue growth target of 20%-30% year-on-year [7][9] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 17.349 billion, 21.166 billion, and 25.418 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profits of 2.828 billion, 3.452 billion, and 4.135 billion yuan [7][9]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 12.28 billion yuan in 2024Q1-3, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, with Non-IFRS net profit of 1.93 billion yuan, up 13.7% year-on-year [2] - In 2024Q3, the company's revenue was 4.52 billion yuan, up 19.3% year-on-year, and Non-IFRS net profit was 686 million yuan, up 6.9% year-on-year [2] - Domestic MINISO revenue in 2024Q3 was 2.44 billion yuan, up 6% year-on-year, with 135 new stores opened, bringing the total to 4,250 stores [2] - Overseas market revenue in 2024Q3 was 1.81 billion yuan, up 39.8% year-on-year, with 183 new stores opened, bringing the total to 2,936 stores [3] - TOP TOY brand revenue in 2024Q3 was 270 million yuan, up 50.1% year-on-year, with 39 new stores opened, bringing the total to 234 stores [3] - The company expects 2024Q4 revenue to grow 20-25% year-on-year, with overseas MINISO revenue growing 45-50% year-on-year, and TOP TOY maintaining a growth rate of over 50% [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 17.14 billion yuan, up 23.87% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.53 billion yuan, up 12.24% year-on-year [1] - Non-IFRS net profit for 2024E is projected at 2.80 billion yuan, up 18.77% year-on-year [1] - EPS for 2024E is projected at 2.01 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 17.73 [1] - Revenue for 2025E is projected at 20.33 billion yuan, up 18.59% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.01 billion yuan, up 18.86% year-on-year [1] - Non-IFRS net profit for 2025E is projected at 3.24 billion yuan, up 15.61% year-on-year [1] - EPS for 2025E is projected at 2.39 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 14.92 [1] Key Financial Ratios - ROE for 2024E is projected at 24.58%, with a gross margin of 44.83% and a net profit margin of 14.75% [12] - ROE for 2025E is projected at 26.07%, with a gross margin of 46.44% and a net profit margin of 14.79% [12] - ROE for 2026E is projected at 26.56%, with a gross margin of 47.25% and a net profit margin of 14.66% [12] - P/B ratio for 2024E is projected at 4.34, with an EV/EBITDA of 11.21 [12] - P/B ratio for 2025E is projected at 3.86, with an EV/EBITDA of 10.41 [12] - P/B ratio for 2026E is projected at 3.43, with an EV/EBITDA of 8.64 [12] Market Data - Closing price as of the report date is 38.70 HKD [6] - The company's market capitalization is 48.62 billion HKD [6] - The P/B ratio is 5.12, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 40.72% [6]

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - The conference call discusses the financial performance of Miniso Group for the third quarter of 2024, highlighting its growth and strategic initiatives in both domestic and international markets [1][11]. Key Points Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue reached 12.28 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 23% [2][11]. - The average store count increased by 14.7%, contributing to a 12.3% revenue growth from offline stores and a 19% growth from e-commerce [4][11]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to maintain a minimum of 50% for dividends, with ongoing share buybacks to provide predictable returns [4][11]. Store Expansion - The company aims to open between 350 to 450 new stores in 2024, with a focus on first and second-tier cities, which account for 60% of new openings [5][20]. - The total number of stores reached 859, with significant growth in overseas markets, particularly in the U.S. and India [2][8]. International Market Growth - Overseas revenue surpassed 4.5 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 41% [7][12]. - The overseas direct sales market contributed 2.45 billion RMB, growing by 64%, while the overseas agency market grew by 22% [12]. - The company expects to open 650 to 700 new overseas stores by the end of the year, exceeding previous estimates [8][20]. Consumer Trends and Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on quality retail and interest-based consumption, emphasizing product innovation and consumer experience [2][3]. - There is a strong emphasis on IP (Intellectual Property) collaboration, with successful partnerships with brands like Disney and Harry Potter, which have significantly boosted sales [6][31]. Cost Management and Profitability - Sales and management expenses increased by 54%, with sales expenses rising by 63% due to new store openings [13][16]. - The gross margin improved by 3.7 percentage points to 44.1% compared to the previous year [12][16]. - The company maintains a low debt ratio of less than 1%, ensuring ample cash reserves for future investments [16][17]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a low teens growth rate in domestic sales for Q4, despite challenges in the retail environment [20][37]. - The management is optimistic about the U.S. market's performance and plans to enhance operational efficiency through localized management teams [22][38]. - The focus will remain on expanding the IP product line and enhancing the consumer experience through innovative store formats and product offerings [29][31]. Additional Insights - The company is actively exploring flexible store operation models, including potential franchise opportunities to accelerate growth in overseas markets [39]. - The emphasis on O2O (Online to Offline) business has shown significant growth, with a nearly 80% increase year-on-year [30]. Conclusion - Miniso Group is strategically positioned for growth through its multi-brand approach, international expansion, and focus on consumer trends. The company is committed to maintaining profitability while navigating the challenges of the retail landscape.

证券研究报告 名创优品 (9896 HK) 港股通 Q3 海外拓展加速，IP 战略持续显效 华泰研究 季报点评 2024 年 12 月 01 日│中国香港 零售 公司发布 24Q3 季报，三季度营收同增 19.3%至 45.2 亿元，其中国内 Miniso/ 海外 Miniso/Top Toy 分别同增 5.7%/39.8%/50.4%，海外得益于 IP 战略、 拓店加速、海运扰动缓解等，延续快速成长。经调整净利同增 6.9%至 6.9 亿元，受国内同店承压、海外直营店投入的拖累。我们认为上述不利因素均 有望在 Q4 缓解，叠加哈利波特等热门 IP 及海外旺季推动，看好 Q4 业绩增 速及利润率边际向好，以及中长期公司在 IP 战略赋能下的全球拓展前景。 海外市场及 Top Toy 增势亮眼，拓店环比加速 Q3 分业务看：1）国内 Miniso 营收同增 5.7%，受宏观环境及高基数拖累， 其中客流下降近 6%，客单价同比微增，IP 战略下高线城市客单价表现更优。 2）海外 Miniso 营收同增 39.8%，其中直营市场同增 55.4%，美国及印尼 市场重点发力；代理市场同增 26.5%，得益于 IP 策略 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Recommend" rating with a current price of HKD 38 70 [3] Core Views - Overseas and TOP TOY segments performed strongly with steady gross margin improvement and deepening IP strategy [2] - Revenue for 24Q1-3 reached RMB 12 281 billion yoy +22 8% with adjusted net profit of RMB 1 928 billion yoy +13 7% [4] - Overseas same-store sales showed high single-digit growth while TOP TOY achieved profitability for four consecutive quarters [4] - Gross margin improved to 44 1% in 24Q1-3 yoy +3 7pct driven by IP strategy and product mix optimization [4] - Sales expense ratio increased due to expansion of directly operated stores particularly in strategic overseas markets like the US [4] - The company is accelerating store expansion with 7 186 MINISO stores and 234 TOP TOY stores as of September 30 2024 [4] - IP strategy continues to expand with over 100 global IP collaborations and the launch of MINISO LAND a new store format [4] Financial Performance - 24Q1-3 revenue breakdown: Domestic RMB 7 738 billion yoy +22 8% Overseas RMB 4 543 billion yoy +41 5% [4] - Adjusted net profit margin for 24Q1-3 was 15 7% yoy -1 3pct excluding net exchange gains/losses [4] - FY2024E revenue is projected at RMB 15 391 billion yoy +34 1% with adjusted net profit of RMB 2 419 billion yoy +36 7% [7] - FY2024E gross margin is expected to reach 43 08% with a net profit margin of 15 71% [7] - ROE for FY2024E is forecasted at 24 94% with ROIC at 23 96% [7] Store Expansion - MINISO store count reached 7 186 as of September 30 2024 with 4 250 in China and 2 936 overseas [4] - TOP TOY store count reached 234 with 29 directly operated stores and 205 third-party stores [4] - The company plans to add 340-450 domestic MINISO stores and 550-650 overseas MINISO stores in 2024 [4] - As of 24Q3 domestic store expansion progress was 72%-93% while overseas progress was 69%-82% [4] IP Strategy - MINISO has collaborated with over 100 global IPs including Hello Kitty Barbie Harry Potter and Disney [4] - The new MINISO LAND store format launched in Shanghai with a monthly revenue of RMB 12 03 million during trial operation [4] - MINISO LAND stores are planned for key cities like Beijing Guangzhou and Chengdu further strengthening the IP-driven brand positioning [4] Valuation - FY2024E PE is projected at 16X with FY2025E and FY2026E PE at 13X and 11X respectively [4] - FY2025E and FY2026E net profit are forecasted at RMB 3 114 billion and RMB 4 167 billion respectively [4]

2024 年 11 月 30 日 公司盈利预测与估值简表 公司研究 海外进入旺季，哈利波特联名表现良好 ——名创优品（9896.HK）2024 年三季报点评 要点 公司 3Q2024 营收同增 19.3%，公司权益股东应占利润同增 4.8% 11 月 29 日,公司公布 2024 年三季报：1-3Q2024 实现营业收入 122.8 亿元， 同增 22.8%,实现公司权益股东应占利润 18.1 亿元，对应基本 EPS 为 1.54 元，同增 14.1%；实现经调整净利润 19.3 亿元，同增 13.7%。 单季度拆分来看，3Q2024 实现营业收入 45.2 亿元，同增 19.3%，实现公司 权益股东应占利润 6.4 亿元，同增 4.8%，对应基本 EPS0.52 元；实现经调 整净利润 6.9 亿元，同增 6.9%。 公司 3Q2024 综合毛利率同比上升 3.11pct，期间费用率同比上升 5.93pct 1-3Q2024 公司综合毛利率为 44.13%，同比上升 3.71 个百分点。单季度拆 分来看，3Q2024 公司综合毛利率为 44.89%，同比上升 3.11 个百分点。公 司毛利率同比高增主要由于 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Miniso (09896.HK) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 12.28 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.8%, with an adjusted net profit of 1.928 billion RMB, up 13.7% [2] - The revenue for Q3 2024 was 4.52 billion RMB, reflecting a 19.3% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit of 686 million RMB, a 6.9% increase [2] - Domestic revenue grew by 9% while overseas revenue surged by 40% in Q3 2024 [2] - The company plans to open 900-1100 new stores globally in 2024, focusing on innovative store formats and expanding in North America [2] Financial Performance - The projected revenue for 2024 is 17.177 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 24.12% [4] - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach 2.815 billion RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 19% [4] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2024 was 43.7%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 15.89, 12.98, and 10.43 respectively [4] Operational Insights - The company has successfully expanded its store count to 4,250 in China, with significant growth in high-tier cities [2] - The overseas store count reached 2,936, with a notable increase in North America and Latin America [2] - The company is leveraging IP product innovation and supply chain integration to enhance its market position [2]

Financial Performance - Revenue for the first nine months of 2024 reached RMB 12,281.3 million (USD 1,750.1 million), representing a year-on-year growth of 22.8%[8] - Gross profit increased by 34.1% to RMB 5,419.8 million (USD 772.3 million), with a gross margin of 44.1%, up from 40.4% in the same period last year[8] - Operating profit grew by 14.3% to RMB 2,347.4 million (USD 334.5 million) for the first nine months[8] - Net profit for the period rose by 11.6% to RMB 1,825.7 million (USD 260.2 million)[8] - Adjusted net profit increased by 13.7% to RMB 1,928.1 million (USD 274.8 million), excluding a foreign exchange loss of RMB 21.7 million (USD 3.1 million)[8] - Adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months increased by 20.6% to RMB 3,107.1 million (USD 442.8 million), with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.3%[8] - Revenue for the quarter was RMB 4,522.6 million (USD 644.5 million), representing a year-on-year increase of 19.3%[25] - Gross profit amounted to RMB 2,030.0 million (USD 289.3 million), with a year-on-year growth of 28.2%[27] - Operating profit for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 852,562 thousand, a rise of 8.2% from RMB 788,313 thousand in the same period of 2023[50] - Adjusted net profit for the year ended December 31, 2023, was reported at RMB 4,157,675,000, with an adjusted net profit margin calculated accordingly[47] Store Expansion - Total number of stores reached 7,420 as of September 30, 2024, with a net addition of 859 stores in the first nine months[11] - The number of MINISO stores in mainland China was 4,250, with 324 new openings during the first nine months[11] - The number of MINISO stores in overseas markets reached 2,936, with 449 new openings in the same period[11] - As of September 30, 2024, the total number of MINISO stores reached 7,420, with a net addition of 859 stores in the first nine months of 2024, nearing the target of 900-1,100 new stores for the year[14] - The number of stores in Mainland China increased to 4,250 as of September 30, 2024, a net addition of 448 stores year-over-year[57] - The overseas store count reached 2,936 as of September 30, 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 623 stores[59] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Free cash flow for the first nine months was RMB 1,465.6 million (USD 208.8 million)[9] - Operating cash flow for the first nine months of 2024 was RMB 2,030 million, with free cash flow of RMB 1,470 million, and cash reserves of RMB 6,280 million as of September 30, 2024[16] - Cash and cash equivalents totaled RMB 6,284.1 million (USD 895.5 million) as of September 30, 2024[24] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to RMB 6,415,441,000 from RMB 1,716,150,000, reflecting a change in liquidity position[47] Expenses and Costs - Selling and distribution expenses increased by 61.6% to RMB 2,518.5 million, primarily due to investments in direct-operated stores in strategic overseas markets[20] - General and administrative expenses rose by 33.6% to RMB 654.8 million, driven by personnel-related costs associated with business growth[21] - Sales and distribution expenses rose by 55.5% to RMB 996.5 million (USD 142.0 million) year-on-year[28] Strategic Initiatives - The company signed an agreement to acquire a 29.4% stake in Yonghui Superstores, indicating a strategic focus on quality retail and consumer experience[14] - The company plans to maintain a dividend policy of at least 50% of adjusted net profit and continue share buybacks to provide predictable returns to shareholders[14] - Future outlook includes expectations for growth in the retail market and demand for the company's products, with potential risks highlighted[44] - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and developing new products and technologies[44] - Management's strategic and operational plans include addressing industry competition and regulatory factors impacting business performance[44] Revenue Breakdown - The contribution of overseas revenue increased from 32% in 2023 to 37% in 2024, with overseas revenue growing by 41.5% to RMB 4,542.9 million (USD 647.4 million)[15][17] - Revenue from the Mainland China market for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 2,711,673 thousand, an 8.7% increase from RMB 2,495,777 thousand in the same period of 2023[55] - Revenue from the TOP TOY brand for the three months ended September 30, 2024, surged by 50.4% to RMB 271,645 thousand compared to RMB 180,664 thousand in the same period of 2023[55] Profitability Metrics - Adjusted net profit margin for the first nine months of 2024 was 15.7%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.3%[15] - The adjusted net profit margin for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was 15.2%, down from 16.9% in the same period of 2023[53] - Basic earnings per American Depositary Share increased by 12.3% to RMB 5.84 (USD 0.83) year-on-year[24] - The adjusted earnings per share (basic) for the three months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 0.55, an increase from RMB 0.51 in the same period of 2023[53] Asset and Liability Overview - The total assets as of December 31, 2023, amounted to RMB 14,485,309,000, showing a significant increase from RMB 16,134,822,000 as of September 30, 2024[47] - Total liabilities as of December 31, 2023, were RMB 5,294,092 thousand, down 19.4% from RMB 6,569,859 thousand as of September 30, 2023[49] - The company reported a significant increase in inventories, rising from RMB 1,922,241,000 to RMB 2,297,067,000, suggesting potential growth in sales[47] - The company reported a decrease in non-current liabilities, specifically lease liabilities, from RMB 1,608,605 thousand as of September 30, 2023, to RMB 797,986 thousand as of December 31, 2023[49]