Group 1 - The top short-selling ratios are led by AIA Group (81299) and JD Health (86618) at 100.00%, followed by Baidu Group (89888) at 95.46% [1][2] - The highest short-selling amounts are recorded for Pop Mart (09992) at 1.3 billion, Alibaba (09988) at 1.26 billion, and Xiaomi Group (01810) at 1.064 billion [1][2] - The highest deviation values are for Baidu Group (89888) at 62.11%, Shenzhen Expressway (00548) at 37.02%, and SenseTime (80020) at 34.65% [1][2] Group 2 - The top ten short-selling ratios include AIA Group (81299) at 100.00%, JD Health (86618) at 100.00%, and Baidu Group (89888) at 95.46% [2] - The top ten short-selling amounts show Pop Mart (09992) leading with 1.3 billion, followed by Alibaba (09988) with 1.26 billion, and Xiaomi Group (01810) with 1.064 billion [2] - The top ten deviation values highlight Baidu Group (89888) at 62.11%, Shenzhen Expressway (00548) at 37.02%, and SenseTime (80020) at 34.65% [2]

Core Insights - The recent rebound of Pop Mart's stock price, which surged nearly 23% to a market capitalization of over HKD 294.6 billion, is attributed to stock buybacks, the popularity of the "electronic wooden fish," and the launch of a co-branded trendy toy phone [1] - Despite the rebound, public funds have shown a net reduction in holdings of Pop Mart, indicating mixed sentiment among institutional investors [1][2] - The overall trend shows a significant decrease in the number of funds heavily invested in Pop Mart, from 160 to 107, highlighting a clear withdrawal of institutional capital [2] Institutional Investment Trends - In Q4 2025, institutional holdings of Pop Mart decreased from 43.82 million shares to 34.25 million shares, with a total market value decline of nearly 45% [1][2] - Some funds, such as Ruifeng Fund and Fuguo Fund, have increased their positions in Pop Mart, indicating a divergence in investment strategies among institutions [2] - Notable increases in holdings include Ruifeng's addition of 2.45 million shares and other funds also making significant purchases [2] Market Sentiment and Consumer Behavior - Investor sentiment remains cautious, with concerns about the sustainability of demand for Pop Mart's products, particularly among younger consumers [3] - The founder of Pop Mart emphasizes the company's identity as an IP company, suggesting that the value lies in aesthetic and emotional appeal rather than practicality [3] - The popularity of products like the "electronic wooden fish" reflects a shift in consumer values, where emotional connection and cultural relevance are prioritized [3][4] Future Outlook for New Consumption Sector - Despite recent challenges, many investment institutions remain optimistic about the new consumption sector, anticipating a transition from toy companies to IP ecosystem operators by 2026 [5] - The outlook suggests potential for significant growth if macroeconomic conditions improve and companies effectively execute their strategies [5] - The Hong Kong stock market is viewed as undervalued, with expectations for a recovery in consumer demand supported by policy initiatives [5]

Core Insights - The article highlights the rising popularity of trendy toys among young consumers, particularly focusing on the "PUCKY Knock Knock Series" plush blind boxes and the new IP "Star People" [4][5][8] Product Performance - The "PUCKY Knock Knock Series" plush blind boxes, priced at 99 yuan, have become a sensation, being referred to as "electronic wooden fish" due to their fun sound feature that resonates with young people's desire for stress relief and blessings [5][7] - The "Star People" series launched on January 22 sold out within seconds, indicating strong demand and market interest [4][7] Market Dynamics - The classic IP LABUBU has seen a significant price drop, with its secondary market price falling from a peak of over 1478 yuan to around 632 yuan, while some blind box styles have dropped below their original price [7] - In contrast, the new IP "Star People" has quickly gained traction, with its plush blind boxes being resold at prices exceeding 2 times their original price, showcasing the dynamic nature of the collectible toy market [7][8] Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are increasingly drawn to toys that provide emotional value, with purchases driven by a desire for spiritual comfort, aesthetic recognition, and social resonance [8]

Company Dynamics - The company has recently launched several new products, such as the PUCKY "Knock Knock" series, which has gained significant popularity. Other successful series include the "Full Family Power" and "Star People" plush keychains. This performance highlights the company's strong product development and innovation capabilities, supported by a mature R&D mechanism and direct customer engagement system [1][2]. Product Innovation - The PUCKY "Knock Knock" series features electronic sound components that produce a wooden fish sound effect when tapped, aligning with consumer preferences for tangible experiences and emotional value. This innovation caters to younger audiences and is well-suited for short video platforms. PUCKY, an early IP signed by the company in 2017, has undergone significant design innovations, demonstrating the company's ability to revitalize established IPs [1][2]. Material and Gameplay Innovation - The company has focused on material upgrades and gameplay innovations, enhancing product uniqueness and playability. This strategy has allowed for the expansion of target demographics and usage scenarios, effectively attracting new customers and promoting repeat purchases. The recent success of popular products indicates that product innovation is driving growth, providing a replicable and certain path for the company's performance [2]. Innovation Capability and Platform Development - The company has established a comprehensive product R&D innovation system, with deep upstream involvement in process and material development and direct engagement with end-user demands. The matrix organizational structure enhances product innovation capabilities. The current market's focus on single IP sales fluctuations may overlook the company's platform attributes and matrix layout, which contribute to growth certainty. The company's sustained innovation capabilities reinforce its platform advantages and leading market position [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 13.7 billion and 17.7 billion respectively, with a new forecast of 21 billion for 2027. The current stock price corresponds to adjusted P/E ratios of 19, 15, and 12 for 2025, 2026, and 2027. Recent share buybacks and a valuation shift to 2026 support a "outperform" rating and a target price of 370 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 68% from current levels [2].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on several sectors, indicating a recovery or growth potential in areas such as new tobacco, packaging, and AI-related products [6][11][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of seasonal marketing strategies in the collectible toy sector, particularly around Chinese New Year and Valentine's Day, with companies like Pop Mart and Blokus launching limited edition products [7][8]. - In the new tobacco sector, there is a strong push for innovation and international expansion, with major players increasing their investments in heated tobacco products (HNB) and electronic cigarettes [11][12]. - The home furnishing market is experiencing a downturn in domestic sales, but there are signs of recovery in exports, particularly to Southeast Asia [13][14]. - The packaging industry is expected to benefit from a steady recovery in downstream demand, supported by growth in consumer goods sectors [15][16]. - The pet food industry is facing increased competition, leading to higher sales expense ratios, but there are opportunities for consolidation among listed companies [21]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Collectible Toys - Focus on seasonal marketing and the integration of AI in toys, with companies like Pop Mart and Blokus leading the charge [7][8]. - The industry is seeing a shift towards cross-industry collaborations and enhanced IP value [7]. 1.2 New Tobacco - The report notes a projected decline in electronic cigarette exports in 2025, with a focus on the need for innovation in the domestic market [11]. - Major tobacco companies are increasing their investments in HNB products, indicating a significant growth potential in this segment [12]. 1.3 Home Furnishing - Domestic sales are under pressure, with a notable decline in new and second-hand home transactions [13]. - Export growth is observed, particularly to Southeast Asia, suggesting a potential recovery in international demand [14]. 1.4 Packaging - The packaging sector is expected to see a steady recovery in demand, supported by growth in consumer goods [15][16]. - Price adjustments in raw materials like aluminum may impact packaging companies' operations [16]. 1.5 Personal Care and AI Glasses - The personal care sector is focusing on high-end products and international expansion, with companies like Procter & Gamble seeing mixed results [17]. - The AI glasses market is shifting focus from VR to AI wearable technology, with major companies like Apple and Meta adjusting their strategies [17]. 1.6 Xiaomi Group - Xiaomi is initiating a share buyback program, reflecting confidence in its business outlook [18]. - The company is also focusing on its smartphone and automotive segments, with a strong emphasis on high delivery targets for 2026 [19][20]. 1.7 Pet Food and Supplies - Increased competition in the pet food sector is leading to higher sales expenses, but opportunities for consolidation exist among listed companies [21]. - New developments in pet healthcare services are emerging, indicating growth potential in this area [21]. 1.8 Silver Economy - The government is implementing a subsidy program for elderly care services, which may boost demand in the silver economy sector [25][26]. 1.9 AI and 3D Printing - The 3D printing industry is experiencing significant growth, with exports increasing substantially [27]. - Innovations in 3D printing technology are expected to drive further expansion in this sector [27]. 1.10 AI Mattresses - A new startup focusing on sleep health technology is gaining attention, with plans to develop a range of AI-integrated sleep products [32]. 1.11 Two-Wheel Vehicles - The two-wheeler market is recovering as major manufacturers comply with new regulations, leading to a resurgence in product offerings [33][34].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the strong sales performance of Pop Mart's new IP series "Star People" and the popularity of the "PUCKY Knock Knock Series" plush blind boxes, indicating a robust demand in the collectible toy market [1][2] - The average price of gold jewelry has surpassed 1500 RMB per gram, leading to a resurgence in consumer interest and long queues at traditional gold shops, particularly during the Spring Festival shopping season [3] - The report suggests focusing on high-growth sectors and service industries that are expected to benefit from policy and technological support, including duty-free shopping, senior tourism, and parenting consumption [4][7] Summary by Sections Industry & Company Dynamics - Pop Mart continues to attract top IP artists, ensuring a steady flow of design inspiration and maintaining a leading position in product development and IP management [2] - The gold jewelry market is experiencing a significant price increase, with many brands reporting prices exceeding 1500 RMB per gram, leading to increased consumer traffic and sales [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends attention to sectors with high growth potential, including service consumption driven by new policies and industry demands, with beneficiaries including China Duty Free, Huazhu Hotels, and Pop Mart [4][7] - New consumption trends are expected to maintain demand, with industry leaders like Pop Mart and others positioned for growth despite current low valuations [7] Macro & Industry Data - The report notes a 4.5% increase in the average price of gold, reflecting strong demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainties [3][61] - In Q3 2025, national gold consumption was reported at 177.53 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.56%, with significant variations across different gold product categories [56]

Group 1 - After four consecutive months of decline, Pop Mart experienced a strong rebound, with its stock price rising nearly 23% from January 19 to 23, bringing its total market value back to HKD 294.6 billion [1] - The stock price of Pop Mart reached a historical high of HKD 339.8 per share at the end of August 2025, with a total market value exceeding HKD 400 billion, but subsequently fell nearly 30% in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to concerns over the decline in IP popularity [3] - Institutional funds significantly reduced their holdings in Pop Mart in the fourth quarter of 2025, with the number of shares held by public funds decreasing from 43.82 million at the end of the third quarter to 34.25 million at the end of the fourth quarter, a reduction of 9.57 million shares [4] Group 2 - Despite the reduction in institutional holdings, some funds increased their positions in Pop Mart during the fourth quarter of 2025, such as Ruiyuan Fund and Invesco Great Wall, which added 2.45 million and over 230,000 shares respectively [4] - The founder of Pop Mart, Wang Ning, emphasized that the company is an IP company, and the blind box concept is merely an enhancement, with the core value lying in aesthetics and emotional connection rather than practicality [6] - Investment institutions remain optimistic about the new consumption sector, with expectations that companies like Pop Mart will evolve into IP ecosystem operators, focusing on diversified IP development and expansion into overseas markets by 2026 [8] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market is currently at a historically low valuation, providing a safety margin for both non-essential and essential consumer sectors, which are expected to attract investment as economic recovery continues [9] - The sentiment in the market is cautious, with a longer observation period required for transformation companies, which has affected the valuation recovery process [8] - The overall outlook for the new consumption sector is positive, with potential for long-term value release over the next two years as the macroeconomic environment stabilizes [8][9]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the internet media sector, particularly driven by AI advancements and strong performance in gaming and e-commerce segments [2][9][12] - It highlights the significant growth of Kuaishou's AI product, Keling, which has surpassed 12 million MAU and is expected to generate $140 million in revenue for 2025, exceeding initial targets [10][12] - The report suggests a focus on companies with strong product pipelines and innovative capabilities, particularly in gaming and AI applications [16][19] Group 1: Internet Sector - E-commerce: Continuous attention is recommended on AI narratives influencing stock prices, with Alibaba's recent developments expected to catalyze further stock performance [12][13] - Social Entertainment Media: Bilibili and Tencent are noted for their strong advertising momentum, with Tencent's gaming fundamentals improving and new game releases expected to enhance performance [13][16] - Internet Healthcare: JD Health and Alibaba Health are leveraging their platform advantages to deepen collaborations with upstream pharmaceutical manufacturers, leading to robust revenue and profit growth [13][19] Group 2: Gaming Sector - The gaming sector is expected to maintain a favorable outlook, with recommendations for leading companies like Tencent and NetEase, as well as promising titles from Century Huatong and Giant Network [16][18] - The report highlights the success of Giant Network's game "Supernatural Action Group," which has seen a rise in rankings and is expected to perform well during the upcoming Spring Festival [10][16] Group 3: AI Developments - Recent advancements in AI models and applications are noted, with significant releases from major players like Baidu and Tencent, indicating a competitive landscape in AI technology [11][19] - The report suggests monitoring AI applications in various sectors, including e-commerce, gaming, and healthcare, with specific companies recommended for investment based on their innovative capabilities [19][20] Group 4: Media and Advertising - The report discusses the impact of asset impairment on Focus Media, predicting a reduction in net profit for Q4 2025 but an increase in Q1 2026, indicating a one-time effect on performance [18] - It also highlights the potential for growth in the advertising sector, driven by increased investment from internet advertisers and upcoming major events that may boost advertising spending [18][19] Group 5: Long Video and Music Streaming - The long video sector is showing signs of recovery, with an increase in drama approvals and the release of quality content expected to enhance performance for platforms like iQIYI and Mango TV [15][16] - In music streaming, Tencent Music and NetEase Music are noted for their stable performance, despite concerns over competition, with a focus on the importance of quality content in driving subscriptions [15][16]

Investment Ratings - The report provides a positive outlook on the new tobacco industry, indicating a steady upward trend, while the home furnishing and packaging sectors are stabilizing at the bottom [6][11][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights the marketing strategies around the Spring Festival and Valentine's Day for trendy toys, with companies like Pop Mart and Blok launching limited series to enhance IP value and collectability [7][8]. - In the new tobacco sector, the necessity for domestic development is emphasized, with major players increasing investments in heated tobacco products (HNB) and innovative marketing strategies [11][12]. - The home furnishing market is experiencing a contraction in sales, with significant declines in both new and second-hand property transactions, but there are signs of potential recovery driven by policy support [13][14]. - The packaging industry is expected to benefit from a steady recovery in downstream demand, supported by growth in consumer goods sectors [15][16]. - The pet food industry is facing increased competition, leading to higher sales expense ratios, but listed companies are leveraging their financial advantages for mergers and acquisitions [21]. Summary by Sections Trendy Toys - Focus on marketing strategies for key holidays, with companies like Pop Mart and Blok launching special editions to enhance brand value [7]. - The integration of AI in toys is gaining traction, with companies like Kid King and JD.com developing AI products to meet family needs [8][9]. New Tobacco - The report notes a projected decline in electronic cigarette exports, with a focus on the need for innovation in the domestic market [11]. - Major tobacco companies are increasing their investments in HNB products, indicating a significant growth potential in this segment [12]. Home Furnishing - The report indicates a significant drop in property transactions, with new home sales down 29.23% year-on-year and second-hand home sales down 8.94% [13]. - Despite current challenges, there is optimism for recovery in the home furnishing sector due to supportive policies [14]. Packaging - The packaging sector is expected to see a recovery in demand, with growth in consumer goods contributing positively to the industry [15][16]. - The report highlights price fluctuations in raw materials, particularly in the paper and aluminum sectors, which could impact packaging costs [15]. Pet Food - Increased competition in the pet food industry is leading to higher sales expenses, but established companies are positioned to benefit from consolidation opportunities [21]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong brand recognition and those actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions [21].

Core Insights - The new PUCKY "Knock Knock" series from Pop Mart has gained significant popularity among young consumers, driven by its interactive features and emotional appeal [1][3][6] Product Launch and Consumer Engagement - The "Knock Knock" series features plush keychains priced at 99 yuan each, equipped with electronic components that produce sounds when tapped, promoting emotional relief [3][6] - The product has gone viral on social media, with discussions on platforms like Xiaohongshu exceeding one million views, and consumers affectionately referring to it as "electronic wooden fish" [3][6] - The interactive nature of the product has attracted a diverse consumer base, including older generations, indicating its broad appeal [6][7] Market Performance and Pricing Trends - The initial market price for the hidden variant "Success +1" surged from 99 yuan to 396 yuan, reflecting high demand, although prices have slightly adjusted since then [6][8] - Pop Mart is actively replenishing stock in response to high consumer interest, with reports of increased foot traffic in stores [6][8] Brand and IP Strategy - Pop Mart's ability to create successful products is evident in its diverse IP portfolio, including the established PUCKY and the rapidly rising "Star People" [7][8] - The company has demonstrated resilience in maintaining the popularity of its IPs, with ongoing product innovation and consumer engagement strategies [7][8] Financial Implications - Despite a recent stock price drop of nearly 50% amid strong revenue growth, Pop Mart has initiated share buybacks totaling approximately 3.5 billion HKD to counteract market volatility [8] - The company's strong IP management and ability to resonate with consumer emotions are seen as key competitive advantages in the market [8]