Group 1 - The new consumption concept stocks in the Hong Kong market continue to be sluggish, with significant declines observed [1] - Pop Mart (09992.HK) fell over 5%, while Blok (00325.HK) dropped 4.3% [1] - Other companies such as Guoquan (02517.HK), Xiaomi Group (01810.HK), and Laopu Gold (06181.HK) experienced declines exceeding 3%, and Chabaidao (02555.HK) fell by 2.8% [1]

Simon：大家好，今天和大家聊聊窩輪產品的相關情況。 第一只個股：中國平安（02318）：我們先從股價走勢說起，之後再看相關衍生品。大家能看到，中國平安這兩天的股價表現相當亮眼，上漲了不少。今天 （8日）的高位曾達到62.3元，最終收報61.75元。以這個收盤價來看，股價已經突破了保利加通道的頂部位置。 | 信號總結 | 賣出信號 中立信號 | 買入信號 | | --- | --- | --- | | 賣出 | C | b | 從投資者的態度來看，大家普遍比較樂觀，認為股價有望接近70元左右的位置。不過坦白說，70元是一個比較高的價位，已經很久沒有出現過了。如果股價 真的漲到70元，就意味著突破了所有的周線、月線，甚至接近季線。所以從技術圖表來看，70元左右幾乎已經到了股價圖保利加通道的頂部，想要漲到這個 價位可能需要較長時間。當然，股票市場變化無常，但這可以作為大家投資的一個參考。 市場上既然有看好的聲音，也有投資者會繼續持有相關牛證。目前中國平安的牛證產品選擇非常多，市面上有80多只，選擇相當多。如果大家現在關注2318 中國平安的牛證，首先要考慮的就是收回價。 從當前情況來看，股價的支持位大概在58. ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.84% to 25,549.90 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.32%, and the National Enterprises Index decreasing by 1.12% [1][8]. Sector Performance - Technology stocks saw a broad decline, with notable drops including Xiaomi, Kuaishou, Bilibili, and Baidu, each falling over 2%, while Meituan and NetEase dropped more than 1% [1][8]. - Gold and non-ferrous metal stocks faced pressure, with Zijin Mining declining over 4% [1][8]. - The real estate sector weakened significantly, highlighted by China Jinmao's drop of over 11% [1][8]. - New consumption concept stocks continued their downward trend, with Pop Mart falling over 4% [1][8]. Economic Indicators - Market expectations indicate potential adjustments in interest rate policies by the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, with hawkish comments from ECB Executive Schnabel influencing market sentiment towards anticipated rate hikes next year [2][9]. - Analysts noted that the market has largely priced in the Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts, but there are indications that the threshold for further cuts may be raised [2][9]. Investment Insights - Morgan Stanley suggests a selective investment strategy, highlighting a clear risk differentiation in China's credit market: the TMT sector shows strong quality, while state-owned enterprises are stable but have tight valuations, and the real estate sector remains challenging [5][11]. - The real estate market is not expected to stabilize until 2025, with ongoing declines in sales and investment [5][11]. - Vanke's efforts to extend domestic bond maturities have led to significant drops in both offshore and onshore bond prices, raising concerns about the financing environment for private developers [5][11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in short-selling funds against Pop Mart has led to a significant decline in its stock price, with the short-selling activity reaching a one-year high since September [1][4]. Group 1: Short-Selling Activity - The cumulative funds for short-selling Pop Mart have reached a new high over the past year, contributing to the continuous decline in its stock price [1]. - An increasing number of foreign institutions have published bearish views on Pop Mart, echoing concerns similar to those seen during the AI bubble, indicating a lack of immediate evidence to confirm or refute these views [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Performance - The stock price of Pop Mart is expected to remain stagnant in the short term due to the absence of strong data supporting either bullish or bearish positions, leading to a stalemate [4]. - Concerns have been raised regarding the sustainability of high growth driven by the Labubu product, with fears of a high base effect impacting future performance [6][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ideal time for bottom-fishing in Pop Mart would be when the premium expectations for Labubu diminish and market hopes for new hit products are low [5]. - Pop Mart is currently positioned between the expansion and peak phases of its product cycle, with market fears that it may soon transition into a downturn phase if new hit products are not developed [8][10].

12月8日，泡泡玛特开盘闪崩，暴跌近10%，股价已从高点回落40%左右，为六周多来最大跌幅。与8月高点相比跌约40%，市值蒸发超1800亿港元。 市场人士指出，投资者担忧其在美国"黑五"促销期间的销售表现可能不及预期。 此前11月13日晚，泡泡玛特Labubu新品上市，热度明显下降，其在二级市场的溢价已明显回落。其中隐藏款溢价幅度缩水超50%，而3.0及4.0常规款在二 手平台售价已跌破官方零售价。 晨星分析师表示："美国销售可能走弱，会打击市场对泡泡玛特增长前景的信心。"在公司此前披露其美国地区三季度销售同比暴增逾1200%之后，海外销 售的延续性一直是投资者重点关注的指标。 原价159元的why so serious系列多款在二手平台上已破发，部分已跌超90元。 另一方面，近期海外做空报告频发，基于短期数据波动的景气投资人做空力量较强。部分外资机构预测明年中国及海外市场将出现10%—20%的下滑，市 场对未来业绩不确定性的担忧升温，进而引发估值下调与情绪恐慌，推动股价下跌。 信达证券消费团队表示，高频数据无法反映真实销售全貌：该数据基于信用卡、借记卡抽样调查，且月度数据存在后期实时修正可能；此外，其预收款 ...

Core Insights - The conversation features a rare appearance by investor Duan Yongping, who discusses his "benfen" philosophy that underpins his business and investment practices, emphasizing the importance of understanding business fundamentals [1][2][66] - Duan Yongping shares insights on investment, corporate culture, and education, highlighting the significance of long-term thinking and rationality in both business and personal life [2][67] Investment Logic - Duan emphasizes that understanding the business is crucial for successful investment, citing his experience with Vanke and the importance of recognizing true value in financial data [11][12] - He mentions that he bought shares in Moutai and believes in its long-term potential, suggesting that understanding consumer preferences is key to investment decisions [12][13] Corporate Culture and Succession - The success of companies like OPPO and Vivo is attributed to a hiring principle that prioritizes cultural fit over individual capability, indicating a systematic approach to building a cohesive team [2][66] - Duan discusses the importance of a user-oriented corporate culture that focuses on doing the right things over merely chasing profits, which he believes is essential for long-term sustainability [17][18] Marketing Philosophy - Duan outlines a straightforward marketing principle: there should be no lies in communication, and messages should be conveyed to users with maximum efficiency [2][66] - He shares his experience with advertising, emphasizing the need for authenticity and the careful crafting of messages to resonate with consumers [35][36] Educational Insights - Duan provides a perspective on parenting, advocating for unconditional love and setting boundaries to foster a sense of security in children, which he believes can break generational cycles of behavior [2][67] - He argues against physical punishment, suggesting that it does not build resilience but rather creates insecurity, and emphasizes the importance of guiding children with understanding [50][51] Long-term Mindset - Duan defines "平常心" (ordinary mind) as rationality and long-term thinking, asserting that maintaining a long-term perspective helps in overcoming external distractions [2][67] - He believes that a long-term approach is essential for both business success and personal fulfillment, creating a logical framework that connects various aspects of life [64]

晨星分析师表示："美国销售可能走弱，会打击市场对泡泡玛特增长前景的信心。"在公司此前披露其美 国地区三季度销售同比暴增逾1200%之后，海外销售的延续性一直是投资者重点关注的指标。 来源：春城晚报 12月8日，泡泡玛特开盘闪崩，暴跌近10%，股价已从高点回落40%左右，为六周多来最大跌幅。与8月 高点相比跌约40%，市值蒸发超1800亿港元。 市场人士指出，投资者担忧其在美国"黑五"促销期间的销售表现可能不及预期。 此前11月13日晚，泡泡玛特Labubu新品上市，热度明显下降，其在二级市场的溢价已明显回落。其中 隐藏款溢价幅度缩水超50%，而3.0及4.0常规款在二手平台售价已跌破官方零售价。 责任编辑：王维娜 校对：刘娟 原价159元的why so serious系列多款在二手平台上已破发，部分已跌超90元，有的只要60多元。 来源：橙柿互动·都市快报、中国基金报 主编：严云 ...

r 鲸鸿动能 VOGUEBUSINESS IN CHINA 新中产万象 消费心智群像与品牌增长指南 今天分享的是：品牌运营：新中产万象：2025消费心智群像与品牌增长指南（高净值人群洞察） 报告共计：35页 《新中产万象：2025消费心智群像与品牌增长指南》（VOGUE Business与鲸鸿动能联合发布）聚焦中国新中产及高净值人群消费特征，依托鸿蒙生态10亿 台设备及800万+开发者构建的全场景数据，深度剖析消费趋势与人群画像。新中产核心价值观以健康（35%）、家庭幸福（33%）、学习提升（32%）为核 心，同时追求自我价值实现、事业财富与多元体验，消费决策兼具效能逻辑与情绪动机。报告划分出六大人群画像，消费力覆盖月消费1-5万元区间，其中 高净值人群月消费平均5万元左右，分布于一线及新一线城市，以本科及研究生学历为主；内容兴趣呈现多元特征，涵盖科技3C、时尚穿搭、旅游资讯、时 事政治、健康养生等，不同人群侧重各异，如部分群体关注环保公益，部分偏好经济趋势与钓鱼等小众爱好。品牌增长逻辑已从增量扩张转向质量竞争，核 心围绕"理解人、共鸣人、连接人"展开，鸿蒙生态通过全场景运营能力与用户信任背书，让品牌可精准捕 ...

每经编辑｜张喜威 王晓波 √中国1至11月社会融资规模等数据将2 2 2025中国化肥行业高质量发展大会将 日至10日举办 3 Carbontech2025第九届国际碳材料; 业展览会将于12月9日至11日在上海举办 4 沃尔玛12月9周从纽交所转板至纳斯达 5 OpenAl的CPT-5.2模型已完成准备， 月9日发布 1 隔夜市场 美股三大指数集体收跌，道指跌0.45%，纳指跌0.14%，标普500指数跌0.35%，大型科技股多数下跌，特斯拉跌超3%，谷歌跌逾2%，亚马逊跌超1%，脸书 跌近1%，苹果跌0.32%；微软、英伟达涨超1%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.08%，中概股涨跌不一，高途、世纪互联涨超4%，百度、名创优品涨超3%，小 鹏汽车、新东方涨超2%，网易跌超2%，爱奇艺跌近1%。 12月8日，白宫经济顾问哈塞特就美联储发表看法称，应该继续降低利率。关于利率应降至多低的问题，他表示必须密切关注数据情况。他还表示，若现在 就公布未来6个月的利率承诺，将是不负责任的行为。 国际油价大幅走低，截至发稿时，美油主力合约跌2.13%，报58.8美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约跌2.01%，报62.47美元/桶。 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on China's IP Licensing Industry Industry Overview - The Chinese IP licensing industry is benefiting from the growth of the pan-entertainment sector, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.6% from 2019 to 2024, and the market size expected to exceed 230 billion yuan by 2027 [1][5] - In 2023, the retail sales of licensed products in China reached 13.77 billion USD, ranking fourth globally [1][6] - The global IP licensing market is projected to grow to 363.6 billion USD by 2024, with a CAGR of 9.2%, and is expected to surpass 420 billion USD by 2029 [1][10] Key Trends - The rise of emotional consumption is reshaping consumer demand for IP products, shifting focus from content to emotional satisfaction [4][16] - The Chinese market is experiencing three main trends: the rise of emotional experience consumption, increased willingness to pay among consumers, and the expansion of domestic companies in the industry [2][3][16] - The overseas expansion of Chinese IP, such as the rapid growth of Pop Mart's international stores and the simultaneous release of "Celebrating the Year" on Disney's overseas platform, highlights the global ambitions of Chinese IP [3][13][17] Competitive Landscape - The IP licensing industry in China has a clear distribution across upstream, midstream, and downstream segments, with key players like Reading Group, Alibaba's Aliyu, and Pop Mart dominating their respective areas [8][12] - Reading Group's IP business revenue accounted for over 50% of its total revenue, with significant growth in 2024 [17] - Pop Mart achieved 4.558 billion yuan in IP business revenue, showcasing its success in the commercialization of IP through the blind box economy [12][20] Government Support - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to support the high-quality development of the IP licensing industry, including measures to promote consumption and strengthen intellectual property protection [7][9] Financial Performance - Reading Group's IP business revenue reached 2.2 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 85% [17] - Pop Mart's overall revenue was 6.3 billion yuan, with a net profit of nearly 1.1 billion yuan, reflecting strong growth from 2019 to 2023 [20] - Alibaba's Aliyu has successfully integrated IP resources and commercial channels, enhancing the monetization of IP [19] Consumer Insights - From 2020 to 2023, the average per capita consumption expenditure of Chinese residents increased from 21,210 yuan to 26,796 yuan, with a CAGR of 8.1% [16] - In 2023, 25.6% of consumers expressed a willingness to significantly increase their budget for IP licensed products, a 7 percentage point increase from 2021 [16] Conclusion - The Chinese IP licensing industry is poised for significant growth, driven by emotional consumption trends, government support, and the international expansion of domestic companies. The competitive landscape is characterized by strong players across the value chain, with increasing consumer willingness to invest in IP products.