Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, emphasizing continued high growth potential [1]. Core Insights - The banking sector is undergoing a "reduction and quality improvement" process, particularly among small and medium-sized banks, with over 400 banks having been approved for mergers, dissolutions, or cancellations in 2025 alone, surpassing the total from the previous three years [2][7]. - The insurance capital market is expected to see a significant influx of funds, with estimates suggesting an increase of around 1 trillion yuan in 2026, driven by a favorable investment environment and ongoing reforms in public funds [7]. - The investment logic for bank stocks is shifting from a focus on dividends to a dual focus on dividends and growth, with expectations of a recovery in bank valuations in 2026 [7]. Monthly Market Performance - In December 2025, the banking sector experienced a decline of 1.98%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.3 percentage points, ranking 27th among 31 sectors [11][12]. - The valuation of state-owned banks decreased from a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.78 to approximately 0.75, while city commercial banks also saw a decline in their PB ratios [13][15]. - Notable stock performances in December included Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (+8.36%) and Xiamen Bank (+4.63%), while Qingdao Bank (-7.44%) and Minsheng Bank (-6.36%) faced significant declines [15][16]. Banking Fundamentals Tracking - The report highlights the ongoing trend of small and medium-sized banks undergoing consolidation and restructuring, with significant regulatory support aimed at enhancing financial stability [2][6]. - The insurance capital allocation is shifting, with a notable increase in the proportion of funds directed towards stocks and mutual funds, indicating a growing confidence in the equity market [2][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes for 2026: 1. State-owned banks and leading commercial banks as the foundation of credit and dividends. 2. Quality joint-stock banks and city commercial banks that are expected to benefit from improved interest margins and credit cost reductions. 3. City commercial banks that are likely to benefit from regional policies and have significant performance upside [7].

2026年1月1日，招商银行（600036）发布公告称，自2026年1月1日起，招商银行将为数字人民币实名钱 包余额按照本行活期存款挂牌利率计付利息，计结息规则与活期存款一致。 ...

Core Insights - The investment of 500 million yuan by China Merchants Bank's subsidiary, CM Investment, in Deep Blue Automotive marks a significant shift in the banking sector from traditional interest margin earnings to equity investments, reflecting a broader trend in the industry [1][2] Group 1: Investment Trends - CM Investment's acquisition of a 2.42% stake in Deep Blue Automotive is seen as a pioneering move for banks to engage directly in equity investments through Asset Investment Companies (AICs) [1] - The establishment of AICs is viewed as a response to declining net interest margins, which have fallen from approximately 2.5% in 2015 to below 1.8% by 2025, prompting banks to seek new growth avenues [6] - AICs are expected to play a crucial role in supporting the real economy through equity investments, with total registered capital exceeding 100 billion yuan across various banks [2][6] Group 2: Strategic Focus - AICs are concentrating their investments in strategic emerging industries, particularly in sectors like renewable energy, new information technology, and high-end equipment manufacturing, aligning with national policies [8][10] - The investment strategy of AICs emphasizes a diversified approach, with around 80% of holdings below 50% and nearly 40% under 5%, indicating a preference for strategic partnerships rather than outright control [8][9] Group 3: Financial Performance - AICs demonstrate significantly higher profitability, with an average return on assets (ROA) of 3.05% projected for the five major state-owned banks' AICs by the end of 2024, compared to just 0.74% for traditional banking operations [7] - The shift from being creditors to equity holders allows banks to align their interests more closely with the long-term growth of enterprises, enhancing their ability to navigate economic cycles [7][10] Group 4: Market Impact - The rise of AICs is expected to transform the financial landscape, reducing reliance on retail investors and increasing the role of institutional investors, which may lead to greater market stability and efficiency [10][11] - AICs are filling a critical financing gap for innovative, asset-light companies that struggle to secure traditional bank loans, thereby fostering a positive cycle between technology, industry, and finance [10]

Group 1 - The core theme of the article is the significant growth of the ETF market in China, with the total market size reaching 6.02 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, marking a 61.33% increase from the previous year [4][6][33] - The number of ETF products increased to 1,401, reflecting a growth of 33.93% from the end of 2024, indicating a robust expansion in the market [4][27] - Major players in the ETF market include Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai-PB, which dominate the management scale, with Huaxia leading at 957.16 billion yuan [23][24] Group 2 - The performance of ETFs showed structural differentiation, with six ETFs achieving a unit net value growth rate exceeding 100%, particularly in sectors like communication, artificial intelligence, and non-ferrous metals [6][7] - Conversely, some ETFs tracking food and beverage indices experienced declines, with the wine ETF dropping by 12.96% [9][6] - The top ten ETFs by net inflow included the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF, which attracted over 566 billion yuan, highlighting the strong demand for cross-border investment products [17][10] Group 3 - The bond ETF market also saw explosive growth, with the total size surpassing 800 billion yuan, driven by the popularity of the Sci-Tech Bond ETF, which accounted for over 50% of the annual growth in this segment [29][28] - The A500 ETF segment became a focal point of competition, with total assets exceeding 300 billion yuan and significant net inflows recorded in December 2025 [31][32] - The ETF issuance market experienced a historic surge, with 362 new ETFs launched in 2025, surpassing the total from the previous two years combined [27][28] Group 4 - The ETF custody market also expanded, with the top five custodians holding approximately 75% of the total ETF market size, indicating a concentration of assets among leading institutions [33] - A trend towards standardization in ETF naming was observed, with major firms like E Fund completing the renaming of their products to align with new regulatory guidelines [34]

| 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 03968 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 4,590,901,172 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 4,590,901,172 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 4,590,901,172 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 4,590,901,172 | 第 1 頁 共 11 頁 v 1.1.1 | 3. 股份分類 | 優先股 | 股份類別 | 其他類別 (請註明) 否 | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 360028 | 說明 | 於上交所上市之人⺠幣27,5 ...

2026年伊始，人民币继续走强。 1月2日，离岸人民币对美元一度升破6.97，最高升至6.9687，创2023年5月以来新高。截至10时15分发 稿，离岸人民币对美元报6.9690，涨约0.15%。 该报告总结过往10年汇率涨跌变化发现，"人民币汇率具备季节性走强的特征，主要体现在每年11月至 次年1月，此时人民币刚需结汇盘涌现（年末关账、发放工资），带动汇率升值。" 业内认为，人民币汇率是由国际环境、资金流向、政策变化等多维因素共同作用的结果，其后续走势依 然面临多重不确定性。 招商银行金融市场部报告认为，2026年1月，在刚需结汇盘的加持下，人民币汇率或稳中有升。而进入2 月，刚需结汇需求有所减弱，基于春节假期的海外旅游需求，部分零售购汇盘将出现，对结汇力量形成 一定中和。 "人民币双向波动的总基调不会变，金融市场的不确定性也不会变，市场主体可以根据自身的实需情况 和市场阶段性走势，择机操作。"报告强调。 （文章来源：上海证券报） 连日来，在外部美元指数转弱与内部结汇需求释放的共振作用下，人民币升值有所加速。上周，离岸、 在岸人民币对美元双双升破7.0关口。 招商银行金融市场部发布报告认为，2025年企业 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Construction Bank has officially launched the Longying Plan, entering the FOF market to provide customized asset allocation services for investors, following the lead of other major banks like China Merchants Bank [2][5]. Group 1: Launch of Longying Plan - The Longying Plan was launched on January 1, marking a significant move by China Construction Bank into the customized FOF sector [2]. - The plan aims to address the challenges faced by retail investors in selecting funds, offering a comprehensive asset allocation service [5]. Group 2: Market Context and Growth - The FOF market has seen explosive growth, with total assets reaching 235.54 billion yuan by the end of November 2025, a nearly 70% increase from the end of 2024 [2]. - The entry of China Construction Bank is expected to stimulate further activity in the FOF sector, potentially leading to a surge in new product issuances [2]. Group 3: Product Offerings - The Longying Plan includes various FOF products categorized by risk and return profiles, such as low-volatility multi-asset FOFs and global investment FOFs [8]. - Currently available products include several three-month holding period FOFs from various fund companies, with more products expected to be launched soon [8]. Group 4: Strategic Insights - The success of China Merchants Bank's Longying Plan has demonstrated the market potential for FOFs, encouraging other banks to adopt similar strategies [9]. - The demand for stable and professionally managed investment tools in a low-interest-rate environment has made FOFs an attractive option for banks and investors alike [9][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The trend towards customized FOFs is anticipated to continue, with banks leveraging their client bases and distribution channels to enhance asset allocation services [13][14]. - Regulatory support and growing market demand for stable returns are expected to further facilitate the expansion of customized FOFs [15].

Core Viewpoint - China Construction Bank has officially launched the Longying Plan, entering the FOF market to provide customized asset allocation services for investors [2][4]. Group 1: FOF Market Overview - The FOF market has seen rapid growth, with total assets reaching 235.544 billion yuan by the end of November 2025, marking an increase of nearly 70% compared to the end of 2024 [2]. - The entry of major banks like China Construction Bank is expected to stimulate further issuance of FOF products, potentially leading to a surge in the market [2][4]. Group 2: Longying Plan Details - The Longying FOF is designed to address the challenges of selecting funds, offering a one-stop asset allocation service that includes various strategies to balance risk and return [7][8]. - The Longying Plan features four main series of products: customized low-volatility multi-asset FOF, medium-low volatility multi-asset FOF, ETF-FOF, and global investment FOF [11]. Group 3: Market Trends and Drivers - The success of the招商银行 TREE Longying Plan has demonstrated the market potential for FOFs, encouraging other banks to follow suit [12]. - The shift towards customized FOFs is driven by the need for stable and professional investment tools in a low-interest-rate environment, aligning with the preferences of bank clients [12][15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The trend of banks adopting customized FOFs is expected to continue, with predictions that this segment will become a key growth area for the FOF market over the next 2-3 years [17][18]. - The regulatory environment and increasing demand for stable returns from long-term funds like pension and insurance are favorable for the expansion of customized FOFs [18].

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - The banking sector is entering a phase of high-quality development, with a focus on absolute and relative returns from bank stocks, driven by high dividend yields and asset quality [3][4][20]. Key Points Financial Performance Projections - Expected revenue growth for listed banks in 2026 and 2027 is +2.5% and +3.6% respectively, with net profit growth of +1.9% and +2.6% [4][20]. - Revenue and profit growth are anticipated to improve due to: 1. Narrowing net interest margin pressure 2. Quality-focused credit issuance amid weak demand [4][20]. 3. Stabilization of fee income growth after several years of fee reductions [4][20]. 4. Stable or improving net non-performing loan generation rates [4][11]. 5. Accelerated supply-side reforms leading to a reduction in the number of bank licenses, improving competition and operational landscape [4][11]. Customer Demand and Market Dynamics - The low-interest-rate environment has shifted customer demand, with government and state-owned enterprises becoming significant contributors to leverage, affecting the structure of new social financing [5][10]. - Regulatory policies are influencing the development of inclusive finance, focusing on risk compensation rather than merely increasing customer numbers [5][10]. Risk Factors - Risks associated with real estate developers and retail sectors are highlighted, with potential for greater-than-expected exposure [6][11]. Profitability and Valuation Adjustments - Adjustments to profitability forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been made, with a focus on net interest income recovery and fee income growth [20][21]. - The expected net interest margin for 2026 is projected to be approximately 1.34%, a decrease of 6 basis points from 2025 [21][22]. - Fee income is expected to grow by 3.6% and 4.9% in 2026 and 2027 respectively, indicating a positive trend in non-interest income [21][22]. Asset Quality and Credit Costs - The net non-performing loan generation rate is expected to stabilize or slightly decline, with structural characteristics of retail and corporate lending continuing [11][21]. - Credit costs are projected to remain stable at around 0.58% for 2026 and 2027, reflecting the balance between corporate and household debt servicing capabilities [21][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for bank stocks, emphasizing the importance of dividend yield and asset quality in investment decisions [3][4][20]. Additional Insights - The banking sector is undergoing a transformation towards high-quality development, with a shift in focus from scale to quality, driven by macroeconomic pressures and regulatory changes [12][20]. - The reduction in the number of banking licenses over the past five years indicates successful risk management efforts within the sector [11][12]. - The report emphasizes the need for banks to adapt their strategies to maintain competitiveness in a changing regulatory and economic environment [12][20].

Group 1: Market Overview - On December 31, the Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 34.49 billion HKD from northbound funds, with 30.97 billion HKD from the Shanghai Stock Connect and 3.51 billion HKD from the Shenzhen Stock Connect. This marks a record high net inflow of 1.41 trillion HKD for the year, significantly up from approximately 807.9 billion HKD in 2024 [2]. Group 2: Key Stocks - The most net bought stocks by northbound funds included China Merchants Bank (招商银行) with 7.24 billion HKD, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (工商银行) with 5.88 billion HKD, and China Construction Bank (建设银行) with 5.61 billion HKD [6]. - The most net sold stocks were Zijin Mining (紫金矿业) with a net outflow of 6.82 billion HKD and Tencent (腾讯) with a net outflow of 6.46 billion HKD [7]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The banking sector is expected to benefit from a stable macro-financial environment, with projections indicating that bank interest margins may have bottomed out and risks in the real sector are easing. This is anticipated to lead to income and profit recovery in the banking industry [6]. - Semiconductor stocks, particularly SMIC (中芯国际), received significant net buying, with 3.91 billion HKD, driven by price increases in the 8-inch BCD process platform by approximately 10% [6]. Group 4: Specific Company Insights - Jiangxi Copper (江西铜业) saw a net inflow of 1.58 billion HKD, while Zijin Mining faced a net outflow of 6.82 billion HKD. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need for optimizing the management of the copper smelting industry, which may impact future production levels [7]. - Xiaomi Group (小米集团) received a net inflow of 2.37 billion HKD, supported by government policies promoting consumer electronics [7].