Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector concluded 2025 with a structural rise, with 35 out of 42 listed banks experiencing gains, and the banking index rising by 12.04%, indicating strong defensive and allocation value [2][3]. Group 1: 2025 Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector exhibited significant structural differentiation, with the top ten stocks including Agricultural Bank (52.66%), Xiamen Bank (35.78%), and others showing gains over 20% [3][4]. - The market's focus shifted towards "certainty of returns" and "growth cost-effectiveness" amid an "asset shortage" backdrop, leading to a preference for certain banks [3][4]. Group 2: Core Drivers of 2025 Bull Stocks - Three main factors drove the performance of bull stocks: high dividends and low valuations supporting state-owned banks, regional economic vitality empowering small and medium banks, and asset structure optimization promoting value reassessment [4][5]. - Agricultural Bank led with a dividend yield above 5% and a price-to-book ratio exceeding 1, breaking the long-standing trend of state-owned banks trading below book value [4][5]. Group 3: 2026 Bull Stock Predictions - The banking sector is expected to maintain a "steady progress" operational trend in 2026, with key dimensions for identifying bull stocks including net interest margin improvement, business transformation growth, and stable asset quality [5][6]. - The predicted top ten bull stocks for 2026 include Agricultural Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Ningbo Bank, among others, with each having specific growth drivers [7][8]. Group 4: Key Factors for 2026 Predictions - Agricultural Bank is expected to continue its strong performance due to its county-level business advantages and low liability costs [7]. - China Merchants Bank is anticipated to see dual growth in performance and valuation, driven by its wealth management transformation and strong asset quality [8]. - Ningbo Bank is positioned to benefit from regional economic vitality and diversified non-interest income growth [8][9]. Group 5: Structural Trends and Risks - The banking sector is likely to experience a dual rise in performance and valuation, supported by improved net interest margins and robust asset quality [12][13]. - However, structural differentiation risks may intensify, with some smaller banks facing challenges due to high regional economic dependency and single customer structures [12][13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the emergence of a differentiated investment strategy by joint-stock bank AICs, focusing on new industries compared to state-owned bank AICs which primarily target traditional heavy asset sectors [1][3][4] - Xinyi Investment, the first joint-stock bank AIC, has invested over 6 billion yuan within 45 days of operation, indicating a strong market entry [1] - The investment focus of Xinyi Investment includes sectors such as semiconductors, photovoltaics, lithium mining, and engineering plastics, emphasizing a market-oriented debt-to-equity swap business model [2][3] Group 2 - The investment strategy of joint-stock bank AICs is characterized by smaller, early-stage investments in technology sectors, contrasting with the larger, more traditional investments of state-owned banks [1][2] - Xinyi Investment plans to enhance its investment in hard technology sectors like artificial intelligence and biomedicine, aiming to support companies facing critical challenges [2] - The investment concentration of both Xinyi and Zhaoyin Investments is high, with a focus on new energy, new materials, and advanced manufacturing, often involving direct equity investments or combinations with debt-to-equity swaps [2][5] Group 3 - State-owned bank AICs show a collaborative investment approach, with nearly half of the invested companies having multiple AICs involved, while joint-stock bank AICs currently operate independently [4][5] - The majority of investments by both joint-stock and state-owned AICs maintain minority stakes, with over 50% of projects having less than 10% ownership [5][6]

来源：新浪基金∞工作室 沪深300ETF中金（510320）业绩比较基准为沪深300指数收益率，管理人为中金基金管理有限公司，基 金经理为刘重晋，成立（2025-04-16）以来回报为24.56%，近一个月回报为2.38%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 1月5日，截止午间收盘，沪深300ETF中金（510320）涨1.28%，报1.263元，成交额326.07万元。沪深 300ETF中金（510320）重仓股方面，宁德时代截止午盘涨1.68%，贵州茅台涨2.72%，中国平安涨 5.56%，招商银行涨0.64%，紫金矿业涨1.91%，新易盛跌0.51%，中际旭创涨1.97%，美的集团涨 0.88%，东方财富涨1.81%，长江电力涨0.11%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, emphasizing continued high growth potential [1]. Core Insights - The banking sector is undergoing a "reduction and quality improvement" process, particularly among small and medium-sized banks, with over 400 banks having been approved for mergers, dissolutions, or cancellations in 2025 alone, surpassing the total from the previous three years [2][7]. - The insurance capital market is expected to see a significant influx of funds, with estimates suggesting an increase of around 1 trillion yuan in 2026, driven by a favorable investment environment and ongoing reforms in public funds [7]. - The investment logic for bank stocks is shifting from a focus on dividends to a dual focus on dividends and growth, with expectations of a recovery in bank valuations in 2026 [7]. Monthly Market Performance - In December 2025, the banking sector experienced a decline of 1.98%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.3 percentage points, ranking 27th among 31 sectors [11][12]. - The valuation of state-owned banks decreased from a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.78 to approximately 0.75, while city commercial banks also saw a decline in their PB ratios [13][15]. - Notable stock performances in December included Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (+8.36%) and Xiamen Bank (+4.63%), while Qingdao Bank (-7.44%) and Minsheng Bank (-6.36%) faced significant declines [15][16]. Banking Fundamentals Tracking - The report highlights the ongoing trend of small and medium-sized banks undergoing consolidation and restructuring, with significant regulatory support aimed at enhancing financial stability [2][6]. - The insurance capital allocation is shifting, with a notable increase in the proportion of funds directed towards stocks and mutual funds, indicating a growing confidence in the equity market [2][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes for 2026: 1. State-owned banks and leading commercial banks as the foundation of credit and dividends. 2. Quality joint-stock banks and city commercial banks that are expected to benefit from improved interest margins and credit cost reductions. 3. City commercial banks that are likely to benefit from regional policies and have significant performance upside [7].

2026年1月1日，招商银行（600036）发布公告称，自2026年1月1日起，招商银行将为数字人民币实名钱 包余额按照本行活期存款挂牌利率计付利息，计结息规则与活期存款一致。 ...

Core Insights - The investment of 500 million yuan by China Merchants Bank's subsidiary, CM Investment, in Deep Blue Automotive marks a significant shift in the banking sector from traditional interest margin earnings to equity investments, reflecting a broader trend in the industry [1][2] Group 1: Investment Trends - CM Investment's acquisition of a 2.42% stake in Deep Blue Automotive is seen as a pioneering move for banks to engage directly in equity investments through Asset Investment Companies (AICs) [1] - The establishment of AICs is viewed as a response to declining net interest margins, which have fallen from approximately 2.5% in 2015 to below 1.8% by 2025, prompting banks to seek new growth avenues [6] - AICs are expected to play a crucial role in supporting the real economy through equity investments, with total registered capital exceeding 100 billion yuan across various banks [2][6] Group 2: Strategic Focus - AICs are concentrating their investments in strategic emerging industries, particularly in sectors like renewable energy, new information technology, and high-end equipment manufacturing, aligning with national policies [8][10] - The investment strategy of AICs emphasizes a diversified approach, with around 80% of holdings below 50% and nearly 40% under 5%, indicating a preference for strategic partnerships rather than outright control [8][9] Group 3: Financial Performance - AICs demonstrate significantly higher profitability, with an average return on assets (ROA) of 3.05% projected for the five major state-owned banks' AICs by the end of 2024, compared to just 0.74% for traditional banking operations [7] - The shift from being creditors to equity holders allows banks to align their interests more closely with the long-term growth of enterprises, enhancing their ability to navigate economic cycles [7][10] Group 4: Market Impact - The rise of AICs is expected to transform the financial landscape, reducing reliance on retail investors and increasing the role of institutional investors, which may lead to greater market stability and efficiency [10][11] - AICs are filling a critical financing gap for innovative, asset-light companies that struggle to secure traditional bank loans, thereby fostering a positive cycle between technology, industry, and finance [10]

Group 1 - The core theme of the article is the significant growth of the ETF market in China, with the total market size reaching 6.02 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, marking a 61.33% increase from the previous year [4][6][33] - The number of ETF products increased to 1,401, reflecting a growth of 33.93% from the end of 2024, indicating a robust expansion in the market [4][27] - Major players in the ETF market include Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai-PB, which dominate the management scale, with Huaxia leading at 957.16 billion yuan [23][24] Group 2 - The performance of ETFs showed structural differentiation, with six ETFs achieving a unit net value growth rate exceeding 100%, particularly in sectors like communication, artificial intelligence, and non-ferrous metals [6][7] - Conversely, some ETFs tracking food and beverage indices experienced declines, with the wine ETF dropping by 12.96% [9][6] - The top ten ETFs by net inflow included the Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF, which attracted over 566 billion yuan, highlighting the strong demand for cross-border investment products [17][10] Group 3 - The bond ETF market also saw explosive growth, with the total size surpassing 800 billion yuan, driven by the popularity of the Sci-Tech Bond ETF, which accounted for over 50% of the annual growth in this segment [29][28] - The A500 ETF segment became a focal point of competition, with total assets exceeding 300 billion yuan and significant net inflows recorded in December 2025 [31][32] - The ETF issuance market experienced a historic surge, with 362 new ETFs launched in 2025, surpassing the total from the previous two years combined [27][28] Group 4 - The ETF custody market also expanded, with the top five custodians holding approximately 75% of the total ETF market size, indicating a concentration of assets among leading institutions [33] - A trend towards standardization in ETF naming was observed, with major firms like E Fund completing the renaming of their products to align with new regulatory guidelines [34]

| 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 03968 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 4,590,901,172 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 4,590,901,172 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 4,590,901,172 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 4,590,901,172 | 第 1 頁 共 11 頁 v 1.1.1 | 3. 股份分類 | 優先股 | 股份類別 | 其他類別 (請註明) 否 | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 360028 | 說明 | 於上交所上市之人⺠幣27,5 ...

2026年伊始，人民币继续走强。 1月2日，离岸人民币对美元一度升破6.97，最高升至6.9687，创2023年5月以来新高。截至10时15分发 稿，离岸人民币对美元报6.9690，涨约0.15%。 该报告总结过往10年汇率涨跌变化发现，"人民币汇率具备季节性走强的特征，主要体现在每年11月至 次年1月，此时人民币刚需结汇盘涌现（年末关账、发放工资），带动汇率升值。" 业内认为，人民币汇率是由国际环境、资金流向、政策变化等多维因素共同作用的结果，其后续走势依 然面临多重不确定性。 招商银行金融市场部报告认为，2026年1月，在刚需结汇盘的加持下，人民币汇率或稳中有升。而进入2 月，刚需结汇需求有所减弱，基于春节假期的海外旅游需求，部分零售购汇盘将出现，对结汇力量形成 一定中和。 "人民币双向波动的总基调不会变，金融市场的不确定性也不会变，市场主体可以根据自身的实需情况 和市场阶段性走势，择机操作。"报告强调。 （文章来源：上海证券报） 连日来，在外部美元指数转弱与内部结汇需求释放的共振作用下，人民币升值有所加速。上周，离岸、 在岸人民币对美元双双升破7.0关口。 招商银行金融市场部发布报告认为，2025年企业 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Construction Bank has officially launched the Longying Plan, entering the FOF market to provide customized asset allocation services for investors, following the lead of other major banks like China Merchants Bank [2][5]. Group 1: Launch of Longying Plan - The Longying Plan was launched on January 1, marking a significant move by China Construction Bank into the customized FOF sector [2]. - The plan aims to address the challenges faced by retail investors in selecting funds, offering a comprehensive asset allocation service [5]. Group 2: Market Context and Growth - The FOF market has seen explosive growth, with total assets reaching 235.54 billion yuan by the end of November 2025, a nearly 70% increase from the end of 2024 [2]. - The entry of China Construction Bank is expected to stimulate further activity in the FOF sector, potentially leading to a surge in new product issuances [2]. Group 3: Product Offerings - The Longying Plan includes various FOF products categorized by risk and return profiles, such as low-volatility multi-asset FOFs and global investment FOFs [8]. - Currently available products include several three-month holding period FOFs from various fund companies, with more products expected to be launched soon [8]. Group 4: Strategic Insights - The success of China Merchants Bank's Longying Plan has demonstrated the market potential for FOFs, encouraging other banks to adopt similar strategies [9]. - The demand for stable and professionally managed investment tools in a low-interest-rate environment has made FOFs an attractive option for banks and investors alike [9][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The trend towards customized FOFs is anticipated to continue, with banks leveraging their client bases and distribution channels to enhance asset allocation services [13][14]. - Regulatory support and growing market demand for stable returns are expected to further facilitate the expansion of customized FOFs [15].