来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 他们既是实验室里孜孜不倦的探索者，也是学术道路上执着前行的未来栋梁。对于在高校深造的博士研 究生而言，科研压力与生活节奏的双重挑战，是一场需要智慧与毅力的历练。"白天做实验，晚上写论 文，偶尔还要兼顾助教工作，每一天都过得充实而紧张。"一位某985高校理工科专业的博士研究生这样 描述他的日常。他们不仅承载着学术理想的追求，更在现实与未来之间不断寻找平衡。 近日，招商银行上海分行首次推出专为博士群体设计的"上海博士主题IC金卡"借记卡，这不仅是一张金 融服务卡，更是一份来自招行对博士人群的关心与致敬——致敬那些在科研与生活中坚持奋斗的人，致 敬他们始终如一的学术热情与追求。 据了解，在这张卡发行前期，招行上海分行经过了大量的调研，深入走访上海10余所高校的博士学生、 青年教师，以及医药、人工智能、金融机构等重点行业的博士人群，最终票选出一张大家喜爱的博士 卡。"这张卡更像是一个身份标识，让我们的努力被看见、被尊重。"一位参与调研的医学博士表示。 服务体验上，博士卡整合多项专属礼遇，涵盖费用减免、网点服务、财富管理、融资服务、专属权益 等，旨在为博士提供切实可行的支持，缓解他们在发展 ...

截至2025年6月底，该行零售不良贷款余额377.13亿元，较上年末增加25.78亿元；不良贷款率1.03%，较上年末上升0.07个百分点。 前段时间，招商银行客户权益下滑的消息传播甚广。 像是，招商银行金葵花用户需要验资2000万，才能进入成都天府机场贵宾厅，以及招商银行新更换的芯片版经典白信用卡要从原本"1万积分免年费"变为"1万积分18万元刚性消费免年费"等。 但该等权益的调整，尚未影响招商银行零售客户的拓展。 从招商银行最新的半年报看到，截至2025年末，招商银行零售客户2.16亿户（含借记卡和信用卡客户），较上年末增长2.86%，其中，金葵花及以上客户（指在该行月日均总资产在50万元及以 同时，招行私人银行客户（指在该行月日均全折人民币总资产在1000万元及以上的零售客户）共计18．27万户，较上年末增加1．36万户，增长8.07%。 作为"零售之王"，招商银行至少保证了中产及以上客户的持续增长。 只是整体看招商银行的零售贷款业务，仍显示出"乏力"的迹象。 一边是零售贷款占比的下滑。 截至2025年6月底，招商银行零售贷款余额3.61万亿元，较上年末增长0.94%，占该行贷款和垫款总额的53.43% ...

Core Viewpoint - The retail banking sector is experiencing intensified competition, with significant growth in retail assets under management (AUM) and private banking clients among major banks, despite previous challenges in the market [2][4][7]. Retail AUM - The top three banks in retail AUM are China Merchants Bank (CMB) with 16.03 trillion yuan, Industrial Bank with 5.52 trillion yuan, and CITIC Bank with 4.99 trillion yuan [6][5]. - CMB's AUM growth is 7.39%, while Industrial Bank and CITIC Bank have growth rates of 8.00% and 6.52%, respectively [6]. - Notably, the AUM of several banks has increased significantly, with Zhejiang Commercial Bank and Pudong Development Bank showing growth rates of 12.48% and 10.55% [4][6]. - CMB's AUM surpasses that of its competitors by over 10 trillion yuan, establishing a substantial lead in the retail banking sector [4][5]. Private Banking Clients - The number of private banking clients has also seen substantial growth, with Zhejiang Commercial Bank leading at 15.52% growth, followed by Huaxia Bank, Minsheng Bank, and Pudong Development Bank with growth rates of 13.79%, 12.84%, and 10.15%, respectively [7]. - CMB, CITIC Bank, and Industrial Bank also reported increases in private banking clients, all exceeding 8% growth [7]. Wealth Management Revenue - Wealth management income has shown significant increases, with CMB reporting an 11.89% growth in fees and commissions, marking the first positive growth in three years [8]. - CITIC Bank's wealth management income growth reached a four-year high at 10.3%, while Industrial Bank's retail wealth income grew by 13.45% [8]. Retail Loan Quality - Retail loan non-performing ratios vary significantly among banks, with Bohai Bank having the highest at 4.43%, while CMB and Industrial Bank maintain the lowest at 1.03% and 1.22%, respectively [11][9]. - Despite CMB's strong performance, its non-performing ratio increased by 0.07 percentage points compared to the previous year [11]. Retail Strategy - The introduction of consumer loan interest subsidies is expected to enhance the competitive landscape, shifting focus from price wars to technology, service, and quality differentiation [12][13]. - Banks are emphasizing asset allocation and the application of AI models in their retail strategies, with CMB planning to integrate AI assistants to improve efficiency and workflow [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - China Merchants Bank emphasizes the importance of balancing long-term and short-term interests in banking operations, likening it to a marathon rather than a sprint [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, China Merchants Bank achieved operating income of 169.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.72% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 74.93 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.25% - Compared to the first quarter of this year, the revenue decline has narrowed, and the net profit growth has turned positive [1] Personnel Changes - Key personnel changes include the retirement of the General Manager of the Supervision Department, Yao Runxi, and the proposed appointments of several executives to new roles within the bank [2] Talent Development Strategy - The bank's talent development strategy focuses on enhancing talent planning, improving organizational structure, and directing human resources towards frontline operations - As of June 30, 2025, the bank had a total of 118,068 employees, an increase of 867 from the previous year [3] Cost Management - The bank is committed to strengthening cost management and implementing long-term mechanisms for cost reduction and efficiency improvement - In the first half of the year, business and management expenses amounted to 51.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.52% - Employee expenses were 35.48 billion yuan, down 0.80% year-on-year, while business expenses increased by 0.11% to 15.69 billion yuan [3] Future Outlook - The bank's president expresses confidence in achieving a gradual improvement in operations in the second half of the year - Emphasis will be placed on managing costs, enhancing non-interest income, and maintaining asset quality [4]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a collective pullback on September 2, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 1% at one point, and the ChiNext Index falling nearly 4% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.45% at 3858.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.14% to 12533.84 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.85% to 2872.22 points [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 29,128 billion yuan, an increase of 1,349 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance Banking Sector - The banking sector showed resilience, with stocks like Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank rising over 4%, and others like China Merchants Bank increasing by more than 3% [5][6] - In the first half of 2025, listed banks reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 1.03%, with a 0.77% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [6] - Analysts from Galaxy Securities and Tianfeng Securities expressed optimism about the banking sector, citing ongoing positive fundamentals and the potential for valuation recovery due to increased capital inflows [7] Robotics Sector - The robotics sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Upwind New Materials rising nearly 15% and Zhenyu Technology increasing over 14% [9] - Market rumors suggested that Tesla's robot production guidance for next year could reach 1,000 to 10,000 units per week, potentially leading to annual production of 50,000 to 500,000 units [10][11] AI Industry Chain - The AI industry chain experienced a substantial pullback, with companies like Ruijie Networks and Taicheng Technology dropping over 10% [13] - Analysts noted that the decline in AI stocks may be attributed to sector rotation and profit-taking, rather than any significant changes in the industry's fundamentals [13] - Citic Construction Investment highlighted that the current penetration rate of AI large models remains low, indicating potential for growth in capital expenditure as revenue increases [15]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector shows resilience with a notable increase in the Bank ETF leader (512820) by 1.86%, indicating a rebound after two consecutive declines, while the tech sector experiences a pullback [1][3]. Banking Sector Performance - The Bank ETF leader (512820) saw nearly all constituent stocks rise, with notable gains from Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (over 4%), Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, and China Merchants Bank (over 3%), and several others exceeding 2% [3][4]. - The top ten constituent stocks of the Bank ETF leader include major banks like China Merchants Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Agricultural Bank of China, all showing positive performance [5][4]. Financial Results - As of August 29, 42 A-share banks reported their semi-annual results, with revenue, PPOP, and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 1.03%, 1.13%, and 0.77% year-on-year, respectively, showing an improvement compared to Q1 [7][10]. - 17 listed banks have announced interim dividends, reinforcing the high dividend yield logic within the banking sector [10]. Market Valuation - The banking sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is approximately 7 times, significantly lower than the overall market PE of about 21 times, suggesting a favorable valuation for long-term returns [11]. - The banking sector is viewed as a stable investment option due to its low valuation and relatively high return on equity (ROE) compared to the market, making it attractive for long-term investors [11]. Future Outlook - The banking sector is expected to benefit from a stable expansion trend, with decreasing liability costs and a recovery in non-interest income, although asset quality remains a concern with rising overdue rates [10][11]. - The sector is anticipated to attract more long-term capital as market conditions evolve, particularly with the potential for increased passive index fund investments [11].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Expected High Dividend Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to construct a portfolio with high expected dividend yield by leveraging historical dividend data, fundamental indicators, and short-term factors like reversal and profitability[5][10][16] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Dividend Yield Calculation**: - Phase 1: Calculate dividend yield based on annual report profit distribution announcements - Phase 2: Predict and calculate dividend yield using historical dividend data and fundamental indicators[5][10] 2. **Screening Process**: - Exclude suspended and limit-up stocks from the CSI 300 constituents[15] - Remove the top 20% of stocks with the highest short-term momentum (21-day cumulative return)[15] - Exclude stocks with declining profitability (quarterly net profit YoY growth < 0)[15] 3. **Final Selection**: - Rank the remaining stocks by expected dividend yield - Select the top 30 stocks with the highest expected dividend yield and construct an equally weighted portfolio[11] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong historical performance with significant excess returns and controlled drawdowns, making it a robust strategy for high-dividend stock selection[13] Model Backtesting Results - **Expected High Dividend Portfolio**: - Cumulative Return: 358.90% - Cumulative Excess Return (vs CSI 300 Total Return Index): 107.44% - Annualized Excess Return: 8.87% - Maximum Rolling 1-Year Drawdown of Excess Return: 12.26% - Monthly Excess Win Rate: 60.19%[13] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Expected Dividend Yield Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Predict future dividend yield by combining historical dividend data, fundamental indicators, and short-term influencing factors[5][16] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate historical dividend yield based on profit distribution announcements[5][10] 2. Predict future dividend yield using fundamental indicators and historical dividend patterns[5][10] 3. Incorporate two short-term factors: - **Reversal Factor**: Accounts for short-term price reversals - **Profitability Factor**: Reflects the company's earnings performance[5][16] **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively identifies high-dividend stocks and serves as a reliable input for portfolio construction[16] - **Factor Name**: Red Dividend Timing Framework (Composite Signal) **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines multiple single-factor signals to assess the market's outlook on dividend stocks[25][28] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Evaluate five single-factor signals: - **Inflation**: PPI YoY (High/Low) - **Liquidity**: M2 YoY (High/Low) - **M1-M2 Gap**: Scissors Difference (High/Low) - **Interest Rate**: US 10-Year Treasury Yield (High/Low) - **Market Sentiment**: Dividend Stock Turnover Ratio (Up/Down)[28] 2. Assign binary signals (1 for bullish, 0 for bearish) to each factor 3. Aggregate the signals into a composite indicator[28] **Factor Evaluation**: The framework provides a systematic approach to timing dividend stock investments, though the September 2025 signal suggests a cautious stance[25][28] Factor Backtesting Results - **Expected Dividend Yield Factor**: - August 2025 Portfolio Average Return: 5.69% - Excess Return (vs CSI 300 Index): -4.80% - Excess Return (vs CSI Dividend Index): +4.70%[5][16] - **Red Dividend Timing Framework (Composite Signal)**: - Latest Signal (September 2025): 0 (Neutral)[25][28]

Investment Ratings - China Merchants Bank: BUY with a target price of HK$54.42 [5][6] - Agricultural Bank of China: BUY with a target price of HK$6.09 [7][8] - Postal Savings Bank of China: BUY with a target price of HK$6.35 [10][12] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China: BUY with a target price of HK$7.15 [13][14] - China Construction Bank: BUY with a target price of HK$8.95 [15][16] - China Everbright Bank: BUY with a target price of HK$3.98 [18][19] - 3SBio Inc: BUY with a target price of HK$38.20 [20][21] - Longfor Group: HOLD with a target price of HK$9.52 [23][24][25] Core Insights - China Merchants Bank's attributable net profit increased by 2.7% YoY in 2Q25, recovering from a 2.1% decline in 1Q25, with outstanding asset quality but a drop in NIM [5][6] - Agricultural Bank of China's attributable net profit rose by 3.2% YoY in 2Q25, maintaining stable asset quality despite a slight decline in NIM [7][8] - Postal Savings Bank of China's net profit increased by 4.8% YoY in 2Q25, with strong asset quality and an attractive valuation [10][12] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's net profit grew by 1.4% YoY in 2Q25, showing improvement in asset quality and attractive valuation [13][14] - China Construction Bank's net profit increased by 1.6% YoY in 2Q25, with a decline in net interest income but solid asset quality [15][16] - China Everbright Bank's net profit rose by 0.8% YoY in 2Q25, with expectations of maintaining solid asset quality despite a declining NIM [18][19] - 3SBio Inc's revenue declined by 0.8% YoY in 1H25, but adjusted net profits increased by 2.1% YoY, with new product launches driving sales [20][21] - Longfor Group's revenue grew by 25.4% YoY in 1H25, but gross margin narrowed significantly, leading to a substantial decline in core net profit [23][24][25] Summary by Company China Merchants Bank - Attributable net profit increased 2.7% YoY in 2Q25 after a decline in 1Q25 [5][6] - Asset quality remains outstanding, but NIM dropped in 1H25 [5][6] - Target price revised to HK$54.42, maintaining BUY rating [5][6] Agricultural Bank of China - Attributable net profit increased 3.2% YoY in 2Q25 [7][8] - NIM was 1.32% in 1H25, down from 2024 [7][8] - Target price raised to HK$6.09, maintaining BUY rating [7][8] Postal Savings Bank of China - Attributable net profit increased 4.8% YoY in 2Q25 [10][12] - NIM reached 1.70% at end-June 2025 [10][12] - Target price revised to HK$6.35, maintaining BUY rating [10][12] Industrial and Commercial Bank of China - Attributable net profit increased 1.4% YoY in 2Q25 [13][14] - NIM reached 1.30% in 1H25 [13][14] - Target price raised to HK$7.15, maintaining BUY rating [13][14] China Construction Bank - Attributable net profit increased 1.6% YoY in 2Q25 [15][16] - Net interest income dropped 1.1% YoY in 2Q25 [15][16] - Target price raised to HK$8.95, maintaining BUY rating [15][16] China Everbright Bank - Attributable net profit increased 0.8% YoY in 2Q25 [18][19] - NIM expected to decline in 2025 [18][19] - Target price raised to HK$3.98, maintaining BUY rating [18][19] 3SBio Inc - Revenue declined by 0.8% YoY in 1H25 [20][21] - Adjusted net profits increased by 2.1% YoY [20][21] - Target price lifted to HK$38.20, reiterating BUY rating [20][21] Longfor Group - Revenue grew by 25.4% YoY in 1H25 [23][24][25] - Gross margin narrowed significantly, leading to a decline in core net profit [23][24][25] - Target price cut to HK$9.52, maintaining HOLD rating [23][24][25]

Group 1 - The banking sector saw a rise of 2.09% on September 2, with China Merchants Bank leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3858.13, down 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12553.84, down 2.14% [1] - Key stocks in the banking sector showed varying performance, with China Merchants Bank closing at 43.44, up 3.48%, and CITIC Bank at 66.7, up 2.70% [1] Group 2 - The banking sector experienced a net inflow of 4.95 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 299.83 million yuan [1] - China Merchants Bank had a main fund net inflow of 198 million yuan, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 50.89 million yuan [1] - Other banks like Ping An Bank and Huaxia Bank also showed significant fund flows, with Ping An Bank seeing a main fund net inflow of 22.3 million yuan [1]

格隆汇9月2日｜东莞证券研报指出，招商银行上半年实现营业收入1,699.69亿元，同比-1.72%；归母净 利润749.30亿元，同比+0.25%；Q2归母净利润增速由负转正，存款成本继续优化。拆分营收结构，招 商银行今年上半年实现净利息收入1,060.85亿元，同比+1.57%，延续2024Q4以来的增长态势。负债端， 受益于存款利率下调、监管部门严格限制手工补息等高息揽储行为、公司持续推动低成本核心存款的增 长，上半年存款成本率同比-34bp至1.26%，对净利息收益率产生一定正向效果。招商银行分红率维持 30%以上，并将于2025年进行中期分红，拟定比例为35%，高股息价值凸显。预计招商银行2025年每股 净资产为45.25元，当前股价对应PB是0.95倍。维持"买入"评级。 ...