Core Viewpoint - Poly Developments has announced an organizational restructuring to adapt to market changes and enhance management efficiency, establishing ten functional departments to better align with its strategic focus on real estate investment, operation, and comprehensive services [2][3]. Group 1: Organizational Changes - The restructuring includes the establishment of ten functional departments: Board Office, Comprehensive Management Center, Strategic Investment Center, Financial Center, Real Estate Operation Center, Audit and Risk Management Center, Human Resources Center, Party Work Office, Discipline Inspection Office, and Party Inspection Office [2][3]. - The new Real Estate Operation Center combines the previous Operation Management Center and Product Management Center, focusing on deep value extraction throughout the asset lifecycle and emphasizing both development and operation [4][2]. Group 2: Strategic Focus - The restructuring is part of Poly Developments' strategy to "reshape new Poly Developments" and advance its three main businesses: real estate investment development, real estate operation, and comprehensive real estate services [3][6]. - The company aims to enhance its product and service quality to remain competitive in a challenging market, emphasizing the importance of good products and services for survival [5][6]. Group 3: Market Performance - In 2025, Poly Developments recorded a sales revenue of 253.03 billion yuan, a 21.67% decrease from 2024's 323.03 billion yuan, while land investment increased to 67.1 billion yuan [6][7]. - The company is expanding its long-cycle business operations, with the opening of its first high-end second-hand housing service store in Shanghai, aiming to establish 7-8 more stores within the year [7][6]. Group 4: Operational Efficiency - In the first half of 2025, Poly Developments achieved an operating income of 2.54 billion yuan from asset management, a 13% year-on-year increase, with an 18% rise in the number of rental housing units [7][6]. - The company is committed to continuously strengthening its real estate development, optimizing real estate services, and expanding real estate operations in response to industry trends and strategic goals [7][6].

Core Viewpoint - Poly Developments has adjusted its organizational structure to enhance management efficiency and adapt to market changes, establishing ten functional departments to better align with its strategic focus on real estate investment, operation, and comprehensive services [1][2]. Group 1: Organizational Changes - The recent organizational adjustment includes the establishment of ten functional departments, such as the Board Office, Comprehensive Management Center, Strategic Investment Center, Financial Center, Real Estate Operation Center, Audit and Risk Management Center, Human Resources Center, Party Work Office, Discipline Inspection Office, and Party Inspection Office [1][2]. - The new Real Estate Operation Center combines the previous Operation Management Center and Product Management Center, focusing on deep value extraction throughout the asset lifecycle and emphasizing both development and operation [1][3]. Group 2: Strategic Focus - The restructuring is part of Poly Developments' strategy to "reshape new Poly Developments" and advance its three main businesses, which are real estate investment development, real estate operation, and comprehensive real estate services [2][5]. - The company aims to enhance its product and service quality to remain competitive in the current market, which has seen increased competition [3][5]. Group 3: Market Performance - In 2025, Poly Developments recorded a sales revenue of 253.03 billion yuan, a 21.67% decrease from 2024's 323.03 billion yuan, while land investment increased to 67.1 billion yuan [5]. - The company has opened its first store under "Poly Gaowu Hang" in Shanghai, focusing on high-end second-hand luxury home transactions, with plans to open 7-8 more stores within the year [5]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved asset operation income of 2.54 billion yuan, a 13% year-on-year increase, with an 18% rise in the number of rental housing units [5].

Market Overview - The real estate development sector declined by 1.23% on January 14, with Huaxia Happiness leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4126.09, down 0.31%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14248.6, up 0.56% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Huaxia Happiness (600340) saw a significant decline of 10.09%, closing at 1.96, with a trading volume of 1.0057 million shares and a turnover of 197 million [2] - Other notable declines included: - Daming City (600094) down 3.43% to 5.07 [2] - Shouke Co. (600376) down 3.03% to 5.76 [2] - Vanke A (000002) down 2.90% to 4.69 [2] - Conversely, Black Peony (600510) increased by 3.42%, closing at 8.78, with a trading volume of 236,200 shares [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The real estate development sector experienced a net outflow of 1.861 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.55 billion yuan [2] - Notable capital flows included: - Yingxin Development (000620) had a net inflow of 71.01 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Electronic City (600658) had a net inflow of 14.99 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - The overall trend indicates a shift in investor sentiment, with retail investors showing increased interest despite institutional outflows [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 China Real Estate Product Power TOP100 Release Conference" highlighted the importance of product innovation and quality in the real estate industry, emphasizing a comprehensive approach to building "good houses" that meet customer needs and local adaptations [1][24]. Group 1: Industry Trends and Insights - The real estate industry is entering a critical phase focused on quality enhancement, where each company has its own understanding of what constitutes a "good house" [5]. - The conference featured discussions on the new connotations of good housing and the collaborative efforts required to enhance product vitality in the industry [3][5]. Group 2: Key Standards and Frameworks - China Electric Power Construction Group has established a comprehensive "Good House" brand standard that includes six dimensions: safety, health, green, wisdom, craftsmanship, and aesthetics, with 165 quality control parameters [6][7]. - The standard emphasizes a systematic approach to product development, integrating customer insights and local adaptations to ensure quality and efficiency [8][13]. Group 3: Customer Insights and Needs - Companies are increasingly focusing on deep customer insights to inform product standards, moving from basic needs to more complex emotional and cultural requirements [12][20]. - The core customer demands have evolved to include not only basic functionality but also quality of life and emotional fulfillment, indicating a shift in how housing is perceived [12][20]. Group 4: Challenges and Solutions - The industry faces challenges such as irrational competition and the need for better collaboration across the supply chain to meet quality standards [18][20]. - Companies are adopting a long-term perspective to navigate these challenges, emphasizing the importance of aligning product offerings with genuine customer needs and organizational capabilities [21].

Core Viewpoint - Poly Developments has experienced a decline in stock price and significant changes in financial performance, indicating potential challenges in the real estate sector [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On January 14, Poly Developments' stock fell by 2.01%, trading at 6.34 CNY per share with a total transaction volume of 1.022 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 1.33% [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 3.93%, but it has decreased by 0.78% over the last five trading days, increased by 1.12% over the last 20 days, and decreased by 17.77% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Poly Developments reported a revenue of 173.722 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 4.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.929 billion CNY, down 75.31% year-on-year [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 64.976 billion CNY, with 12.269 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 247,700, a rise of 13.96%, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 12.25% to 48,319 shares [2]. - Major shareholders include China Securities Finance Corporation, holding 357 million shares, and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which reduced its holdings by 333 million shares [3].

Group 1 - In the top 20 cities, 16 are core first and second-tier cities, with land transfer fees exceeding 140 billion yuan in Beijing, Hangzhou, and Shanghai, and Hangzhou's fees surpassing the total for 2024 in the first seven months [1] - The sales performance of the top 100 real estate companies is under pressure, with total sales expected to decline by 18.4% year-on-year to approximately 25,209 billion yuan in 2025, while the number of companies exceeding 10 billion yuan in sales has decreased [2][4] - The top 100 companies' land acquisition total is projected to reach 9,640 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [2][7] Group 2 - The sales ranking of real estate companies is undergoing a reshuffle, with the top 10 companies accounting for 49.8% of total sales, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from 2024 [4] - Poly Developments leads the sales ranking with 253 billion yuan, followed closely by Greentown China, China Overseas Property, and China Resources Land, all exceeding 200 billion yuan in sales [4][5] - The land acquisition strategies of real estate companies remain cautious, with a focus on core cities, and the top 20 cities account for 52% of national land transfer fees, indicating a shift towards more stable markets [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6] Core Insights - The company has adjusted its headquarters organizational structure to enhance management efficiency and effectiveness amid declining sales [6][9] - The company remains the industry leader in sales, with a strong focus on optimizing land reserves and maintaining open financing channels, resulting in a significant cost advantage [6][9] - Profit forecasts for the company are maintained, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 4.26 billion, 5.24 billion, and 6.41 billion respectively, translating to EPS of 0.36, 0.44, and 0.54 [6][10] Sales Performance - In December 2025, the company achieved a signed sales amount of 12.16 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%, with a total annual sales amount of 253.03 billion, down 21.7% [7] - The company maintained its leading position in sales, with an average sales price of 20,483 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.9% [7] Land Acquisition - The company acquired 10 plots of land in major cities such as Shanghai and Guangzhou in December 2025, with a monthly acquisition amount of 11.93 billion, up 18.4% year-on-year [8] - The total land acquisition amount for 2025 reached 77.13 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%, with a land acquisition area of 4.572 million square meters, up 39.2% [8] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 346.83 billion, with a decline expected in subsequent years, reaching 269.09 billion in 2025 and 225.90 billion in 2026 [10][14] - The gross profit margin is expected to decrease from 16.0% in 2023 to 13.1% in 2025, with a slight recovery to 14.1% in 2026 [14] - The net profit margin is projected to improve from 1.6% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2026 [14]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.4%, and the ChiNext Index went up by 3.9% this week [1] - The real estate sector (Shenwan) saw a rise of 5.1% [1] - The top five stocks by percentage increase were Chengjian Development (+34.5%), Yingxin Development (+22.0%), Shangshi Development (+20.8%), *ST Rongkong (+19.7%), and *ST Yangguang (+16.0%) [1] - The bottom five stocks by percentage decrease included Hainan Airport (-7.9%), Guangming Real Estate (-7.2%), Hezhan Energy (-5.5%), Shoukai Shares (-5.0%), and China Wuyi (-2.0%) [1] Real Estate Data Tracking - New homes: In the week of January 3-9, 42 key cities recorded a total transaction of 1.37 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 46.7% [1] - For January up to the week of January 9, new home transactions totaled 1.55 million square meters, down 30.1% month-on-month and 46.6% year-on-year [1] - Second-hand homes: In the week of January 3-9, 21 key cities saw a total transaction of 2.06 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 25.4% [1] - For January up to the week of January 9, second-hand home transactions totaled 2.14 million square meters, down 16.1% month-on-month and 23.9% year-on-year [1] Industry News - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to implement a package of fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand, including expanding the scope of public rental housing [2] - The central bank emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the integration of incremental and stock policy effects [2] - Local policies include Shanghai's efforts to improve fair competition review mechanisms and Henan's support for local governments to issue special bonds for purchasing existing homes for affordable housing [2] - In Shenyang, the down payment for housing has been reduced to 15% until the end of 2026, while Chengdu extended its housing mutual assistance policy until the end of 2026 [2] Company Announcements - In December 2025, the sales figures for major real estate companies were as follows: Poly Development at 12.16 billion yuan (-18.9%), China Merchants Shekou at 25.84 billion yuan (-14.5%), and New Town Holdings at 1.35 billion yuan (-57.8%) [2] - China Overseas Development issued bonds with a 3-year term at an interest rate of 1.60%-2.60% and a 5-year term at 1.80%-2.80% [2] Personnel Changes - Vanke A's Yu Liang retired due to age, resigning from his positions as director and executive vice president [3] Investment Analysis - The real estate sector remains a crucial asset allocation and investment direction for Chinese households, with stable housing prices being significant for economic circulation [3] - The 20th Central Committee's emphasis on promoting high-quality development in real estate suggests potential policy support [3] - High-quality residential properties may see a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [3] - The Hong Kong private residential market sentiment is gradually recovering, indicating a potential revaluation for Hong Kong developers [3] - The sector is rated "positive," with recommended companies including China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, New Town Holdings, and others [3]

Group 1 - As of January 12, 2026, 13 out of 18 real estate companies reported month-on-month sales growth for December 2025, indicating a positive trend in the market [1][2] - Poly Developments led the sales with 2530.3 billion yuan in 2025, despite a 21.67% year-on-year decline, maintaining its position as the top seller [4] - China Overseas Land & Investment and China Resources Land followed closely, with sales of 2512.32 billion yuan and 2336 billion yuan respectively, both part of the billion-yuan sales club [4] Group 2 - China Overseas achieved significant sales growth, with a monthly sales figure of 398.32 billion yuan in December 2025, supported by strong project performance in Shanghai [2][3] - The sales growth rates for various companies in December 2025 were notable, with Sunac China experiencing a 163.39% increase due to a low base in November [3] - The overall sales performance of real estate companies at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 is expected to stabilize the market and improve buyer confidence [3] Group 3 - The second-tier real estate companies (sales between 500 billion and 1 trillion yuan) averaged 646.4 billion yuan in sales, while the third-tier (300 billion to 500 billion yuan) averaged 381.3 billion yuan [5] - Despite facing operational challenges, companies like Sunac China and Country Garden remain in the top 100, with sales of 368.4 billion yuan and 330 billion yuan respectively [5] - Debt restructuring efforts by these companies have shown progress, with Sunac completing a significant overseas debt restructuring, reducing overall repayment pressure [5] Group 4 - Leading companies like China Overseas and Poly Developments have focused their land acquisition strategies on first- and second-tier cities, with significant investments in Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Beijing [6][7] - Poly Developments has adjusted its land acquisition strategy, increasing its investment in Shanghai while reducing its focus on Beijing, indicating a shift in market strategy [7] - The emphasis on land reserves in key urban areas is seen as a strategy to enhance operational resilience and capitalize on market demand [6][7]

Core Insights - The real estate market in China shows signs of recovery as 13 out of 18 reported companies achieved month-on-month sales growth in December 2025, with notable performances from companies like China Overseas Land & Investment and China Resources Land [1][2][3] Group 1: Sales Performance - 72.22% of the 18 real estate companies reported month-on-month sales growth as of January 12, 2026, with five companies achieving record monthly sales [1] - China Resources Land led with a monthly sales figure of 410 billion yuan, followed by China Overseas at 398.32 billion yuan and China Merchants Shekou at 258.44 billion yuan [2] - China Overseas achieved a three-month consecutive sales increase, with December sales reaching 398.32 billion yuan, supported by various high-end and affordable housing projects [2][3] Group 2: Yearly Sales Data - Poly Developments topped the 2025 sales chart with 2530.3 billion yuan, despite a 21.67% decline from 2024, maintaining a lead over China Overseas [4] - Other companies in the billion-yuan sales club include China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou, and Greentown China, with sales figures of 2336 billion yuan, 1960.09 billion yuan, and 1534 billion yuan respectively [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recovery in sales is expected to stabilize market confidence and alleviate buyer hesitation, contributing to a positive growth outlook for the real estate sector [3] - Companies like Sunac China and Country Garden, despite facing operational challenges, remain in the top sales rankings, with 368.4 billion yuan and 330 billion yuan in sales respectively [5] Group 4: Land Acquisition Strategies - Leading companies are focusing on land acquisition in first and second-tier cities, with China Overseas reporting 60.6% of its sales from major cities [6][7] - Poly Developments has shifted its land acquisition strategy, increasing investments in Shanghai while reducing its presence in Beijing, with significant spending in Guangzhou [6][7]