Core Viewpoint - Guojin Securities initiates coverage on Global New Materials International (06616) with a "Buy" rating, projecting net profits for 2025-2027 at 275 million, 467 million, and 576 million CNY respectively, corresponding to dynamic PEs of 21x, 12x, and 10x, with a target price of 6.19 HKD for 2026 at a 16x valuation [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The pearlescent pigment industry shows promising prospects in cosmetics and automotive sectors, both of which are experiencing double-digit growth rates, driven by domestic substitution trends [1][2] - The combined market share of the two leading domestic pearlescent pigment companies (Global New Materials and Kuncai) exceeds 30%, indicating strong competitive positioning [1] Group 2: Strategic Acquisitions - In January 2023, the company acquired a 42.45% stake in CQV, South Korea's largest pearlescent pigment manufacturer, for 500 million CNY, with CQV projected to generate 297 million CNY in revenue and 46 million CNY in net profit in 2024, reflecting significant growth [2] - The acquisition of Merck's global surface solutions business in July 2025 is expected to enhance the company's supply chain capabilities, addressing key procurement challenges [2] Group 3: Capacity Expansion and Product Optimization - The company currently has a pearlescent pigment production capacity of 33,000 tons, with plans to expand to 48,000 tons, while CQV's production capacity stands at 2,600 tons [3] - The Tonglu factory's synthetic mica production capacity of 100,000 tons is expected to be operational by the second half of 2025, with further expansions anticipated to lower costs and improve margins [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities indicates that September showed stable performance, with exports maintaining resilience and domestic demand marginally recovering due to the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October," although performance across various industries was uneven [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - Exports have shown resilience during September, contributing positively to the overall economic performance [1] - Domestic demand is experiencing a marginal recovery, driven by the seasonal peak in consumption [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - Performance across different industries is uneven, with some sectors showing strong growth while others lag behind [1] - Supply-side governance and industrial upgrades are yielding positive results, particularly benefiting upstream resource products and emerging manufacturing sectors, as well as high-end equipment manufacturing [1] - Traditional raw materials and consumer sectors are experiencing a "peak season not thriving" scenario due to delayed demand-side stimulus and recovery in consumer confidence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic performance in September remained stable, with marginal recovery in domestic demand driven by the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, but performance varied significantly across industries [1][4] Industry Summary - **Upstream Resource and Raw Material Industries**: - Upstream resource products benefited from "anti-involution" policies and supply constraints, leading to increased demand and rising prices during the peak season [1][3] - Upstream raw materials like steel and building materials showed limited improvement due to low investment chain sentiment [1][3] - **Midstream Manufacturing Sector**: - Emerging manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing sectors experienced significant expansion in peak season due to domestic industrial upgrades and recovery in overseas manufacturing and investment activities [1][2][3] - **Downstream Consumer Sector**: - The real estate market showed weak recovery in transaction volumes, with retail sales of major consumer goods continuing to slow down, indicating insufficient performance during the peak season [1][3] Logic Behind Industry Divergence - The shift in policy focus since July has contributed to the divergence in performance between upstream resource products and downstream consumer sectors, with more emphasis on supply-side optimization and less direct stimulus for demand [2] - Domestic industrial upgrades and economic transformation, along with accelerated recovery in overseas manufacturing and investment, have led to the performance divergence between emerging manufacturing and traditional investment chain-related industries [2] September Industry Information Review - **Energy and Resource Sector**: - Coal production checks improved supply-demand dynamics, leading to price increases; metal supply disruptions and seasonal demand recovery also contributed to price rises [3] - **Real Estate Sector**: - Weak recovery in commodity housing transactions, particularly in first-tier cities, with overall real estate investment remaining low [3] - **Financial Sector**: - A-share trading activity reached new highs, with insurance companies seeing continued growth in premium income [3] - **Midstream Manufacturing Sector**: - Mechanical equipment sales showed strong growth, with heavy truck sales increasing further [3] - **Consumer Sector**: - Service consumption showed slight decline, while overall commodity consumption momentum weakened [3] - **TMT Sector**: - Increased activity in domestic and international AI and humanoid robotics sectors [3] - **New Energy Sector**: - Strong demand for energy storage, positive production trends for lithium batteries, and potential early mass production of solid-state batteries [3]

Core Insights - The "Second Sina Finance Golden Unicorn Best Investment Advisor Selection" is currently underway, aiming to identify outstanding investment advisors and enhance the investment advisory IP construction [1] - The competition includes various categories such as stock simulation trading, ETF simulation trading, public fund simulation allocation, and social service evaluation, with over 10,000 investment advisors participating [1] ETF Simulation Trading Rankings - Liu Lichao from Dongguan Securities achieved the highest monthly return of 34.52% in the ETF simulation trading for September [2] - The second place was secured by She Wenzhi from Xiangcai Securities with a return of 24.66%, followed by Zhou Yang from Guoxin Securities with a return of 22.61% [2] - Other notable performers include Fan Chunqing from Nanjing Securities (19.86%) and Yang Yun from Zhongtai Securities (19.66%) [2][3] Performance Metrics - The top 10 investment advisors in the ETF simulation trading all reported returns above 16%, indicating strong performance in the simulated trading environment [2][3] - The rankings reflect a competitive landscape among investment advisors, showcasing their ability to generate significant returns in a simulated setting [1][2]

Group 1 - The "Second Sina Finance Golden Qilin Best Investment Advisor Selection" event is currently ongoing, organized by Sina Finance in collaboration with Yinhua Fund [1] - The event aims to identify outstanding investment advisors who can effectively guide wealth management, referred to as excellent "guides" in the industry [1] - The September monthly ranking data (covering the period from August 1 to August 31) shows that the top performers in the stock simulation trading group include Zhang Hong from Huajin Securities with a monthly return of 39.49% and Zheng Xiang from Guojin Securities with a return of 35.49% [1] Group 2 - The event features various competitive elements such as stock simulation trading, on-site ETF simulation trading, public fund simulation allocation, and social service evaluations [1] - A total of ten thousand investment advisors are participating in the competition, showcasing their performance through different metrics [1] - The top 100 rankings for the stock simulation trading group for September have been released, highlighting the best performers in the field [1]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing significant growth, with production and prices of key materials expected to rise due to increasing demand and the upcoming peak season [1][5]. Industry Changes - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices increased by 20% in September, reaching 78,000 CNY/ton and 71,000 CNY/ton respectively [2]. - In August, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.18 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22% [2]. Market Performance - Since September 2025, the lithium battery sector has outperformed major indices, with the lithium copper foil segment leading with a 43% increase [3]. - The overall trading volume in the lithium battery sector has been rising, driven by active trading in energy storage and humanoid robotics [3]. Sales Insights - In August, new energy vehicle sales in China, Europe, and the U.S. were 118,000, 200,000, and 170,000 units respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22%, 42%, and 15% [4]. - Domestic energy storage installations in China reached 12.6 GWh in August, a year-on-year increase of 58% [4]. Production Forecast - For October, lithium battery production is expected to increase by 3% to 9% month-on-month, with year-on-year growth of 21% to 50% [5]. - The cumulative production forecast for lithium carbonate, batteries, and other components from January to October 2025 is expected to grow by 27% to 58% [5]. Price Trends - Prices for lithium battery materials are rising, with lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide seeing a monthly increase of 20%, while iron-lithium materials are experiencing a slight decline [5]. Technological Developments - The second half of 2025 marks a critical period for solid-state batteries and composite current collectors, with significant orders expected for pilot lines and equipment [5]. Investment Recommendations - The industry is recommended to focus on leading companies in niche markets and those involved in solid-state technology, including CATL, EVE Energy, and Keda Technology [7].

Core Insights - The "Second Sina Finance Golden Qilin Best Investment Advisor Selection" is currently underway, aiming to identify outstanding investment advisors and enhance the investment advisory IP construction [1] - The monthly ranking for September shows that Wang Tan from Guosheng Securities achieved the highest simulated stock trading return of 49.08%, followed by Zhang Hong from Huajin Securities with 39.49%, and Zheng Xiang from Guojin Securities with 35.49% [1][2] Group 1: Investment Advisor Rankings - Wang Tan from Guosheng Securities leads the September simulated stock trading rankings with a return of 49.08% [2] - Zhang Hong from Huajin Securities ranks second with a return of 39.49% [2] - Zheng Xiang from Guojin Securities holds the third position with a return of 35.49% [2] Group 2: Additional Rankings - The fourth to tenth positions in the September rankings include: - Yin Yongzhen from Founder Securities with 34.35% [2] - Jin Xin from AVIC Securities with 33.42% [2] - Fu Qiang from Guojin Securities with 32.98% [2] - Ding Wenjie from Everbright Securities with 27.25% [2] - Chen Lin from Guotou Securities with 27.10% [2] - Wang Weilong from Bank of China Securities with 26.89% [2] - Li Xiang from Yintai Securities with 26.76% [2]

Group 1 - A-shares opened higher with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.40%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.53%, and ChiNext Index up 0.40% after the National Day holiday [1] - Sectors such as precious metals, nuclear fusion, and non-ferrous metals saw significant gains [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities highlighted three key changes post-holiday: a marginal recovery in September PMI, record high travel data during the holiday, and improved performance in dining, cinema, and real estate sectors [2] - The report also noted increased risk aversion due to the U.S. government shutdown and Japanese elections, alongside a rise in gold prices [2] - OpenAI's release of Sora 2 and partnerships with various companies indicate a speeding up of AI investment and application [2] Group 3 - Guojin Securities warned against over-reliance on the weak dollar narrative, suggesting that a shift may be needed for the ongoing bull market [3] - The firm emphasized that the Chinese bull market often relies on the "China story" rather than external factors [3] Group 4 - Guosheng Securities projected that overall liquidity will remain loose, with seasonal price drops expected in the first week post-holiday [4] - The report indicated that the weighted average interest rate for 7-day pledged repos is likely to stay around 1.4%-1.5% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Global investors have historically viewed the US dollar as the sole beneficiary of fiscal expansion and technological prosperity, but the recent weakening of the dollar has become a central theme in asset trading [1] Group 1 - The reliance on a weak dollar logic may necessitate a shift in the ongoing bull market, indicating a need for investors to prepare for changes driven by both global and domestic factors [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the narrative of a "weak dollar" has become deeply ingrained in the market, influencing global asset prices, particularly benefiting emerging markets over developed markets since September [2][10] - The performance of global stock markets has shown a clear trend where emerging markets, particularly Brazil and South Korea, have outperformed developed markets due to their sensitivity to the dollar index and the effects of AI and metal mining [2][10] - Precious metals, especially gold and silver, have emerged as the strongest sectors under the weak dollar narrative, outperforming industrial metals like copper [2][22] Group 2 - The report discusses two potential paths for the U.S. economy: one led by the service sector, which could lead to recession and a rebound in the dollar, and another led by manufacturing, which could result in a soft landing and a more gradual weakening of the dollar [31][34] - The divergence between the service and manufacturing sectors in the U.S. has been the longest since 2000, with the service sector showing resilience while manufacturing struggles under high interest rates [31][33] - The report suggests that if manufacturing leads the recovery, the extent of the dollar's weakness will depend on the comparative strength of the U.S. economy versus non-U.S. economies [34] Group 3 - For Chinese assets, the report outlines two scenarios: one where a rebound in the dollar due to increased risk aversion could lead to capital outflows from non-U.S. markets, and another where a recovery in U.S. manufacturing could bolster export demand for Chinese goods [3][49] - The report emphasizes that despite recent gains, Chinese assets still have a significant valuation gap compared to developed markets, suggesting potential resilience in the face of dollar fluctuations [3][45] - The potential recovery of global manufacturing could lead to improved export orders for China, supporting domestic demand and corporate profitability [3][51] Group 4 - The report indicates that the reliance on the weak dollar narrative may not sustain a long-term bull market for Chinese equities, suggesting that a shift in market dynamics may be necessary [3][57] - It recommends investors prepare for changes driven by domestic improvements and global economic shifts, focusing on sectors like upstream resources and capital goods that could benefit from a recovery in manufacturing [3][58] - The report also highlights the potential for consumer sectors, particularly travel-related industries, to see a rebound as travel data improves compared to previous years [3][62]