南山铝业 20250328 摘要 Q&A 南山铝业在 2024 年度的经营成果如何？ 2024 年度南山铝业实现了营业收入约 335 亿元，同比增长 16%，归属上市公司 股东的净利润为 48.3 亿元，同比增长 39%。其中第四季度延续了前三季度的增 长趋势，单季度归母净利润达到 13.4 亿元。国内高端制造领域订单销量稳步提 升，出口端逐步复苏，为公司业绩增长提供了有力支撑。海外印尼 200 万吨氧 化铝项目全年满负荷运行，依托氧化铝价格上涨与成本控制优势，推动海外业 • 南山铝业四季度归母净利润达 13.4 亿元，受益于国内高端制造订单增长和 出口复苏。海外印尼氧化铝项目满负荷运行，氧化铝价格上涨及成本控制 显著提升海外业务毛利，成为利润增长核心引擎。 • 汽车板全年产量 12.1 万吨，国内市场占有率领先。20 万吨汽车板生产线 预计 2025 年下半年投产，航空板交付 1.22 万吨，单吨毛利近 1.9 万元， 毛利率超 42%，C919 航空板供应率保持在 60%左右。 • 南山国际在港交所上市募集 24 亿港币，主要用于印尼氧化铝项目扩建，新 增 200 万吨产能，首批 100 万吨预计 202 ...

南山铝业（600219.SH） 优于大市 2024 年归母净利润同增 39%，印尼业务稳步推进 公司 2024 年归母净利润同比增加 39%。公司 2024 年实现营收 334.77 亿元， 同比+16.06%；实现归母净利润 48.30 亿元，同比+39.03%；实现扣非归母净 利润 49.08 亿元，同比+80.77%。其中单四季度实现营收 92.51 亿元，同比 +29.31%，环比+8.09%；实现归母净利润13.40亿元，同比+0.59%，环比+2.96%； 实现扣非归母净利润 14.99 亿元，同比+134.50%，环比+19.70%。此外，公 司计划按每 10 股 0.9 元（含税）向股东派发现金红利，派息总额约为 19.76 亿元（含税），占公司 2024 年归母净利润的 40.92%。 2024 年氧化铝迎来量价齐升。公司业绩大幅提升主要由于商品价格的提升以 及主要产品之一氧化铝产量的同比提升，2024 年长江有色市场 A00 铝含税均 价为 1.99 万元/吨，同比提升 6.5%；山东氧化铝含税均价为 4,035.70 元/ 吨，同比提升 39.03%；澳洲氧化铝 FOB 均价为 500. ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for 2024, with significant year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit, driven by increased product volume and prices, particularly in the alumina and aluminum sectors [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 33.477 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.06% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 4.830 billion yuan, up 39.03% year-on-year [1] - For Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 9.251 billion yuan, a 29.31% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.340 billion yuan, which grew by 0.59% [1] Price Trends - The average domestic alumina price in 2024 was approximately 3,994 yuan/ton, up about 38% year-on-year [1] - The average overseas alumina price in 2024 was around 503 USD/ton, reflecting a 46% year-on-year increase [1] - The average domestic primary aluminum price in 2024 was about 19,917 yuan/ton, which is a 7% increase compared to the previous year [1] Industry Outlook - Alumina prices are expected to decline in 2025, while the price of electrolytic aluminum is projected to continue rising [2] - The supply-demand balance for electrolytic aluminum is forecasted to improve from a surplus of 490,000 tons in 2024 to a shortage of 350,000 tons by 2026 [2] - The company is expanding its production capacity in Indonesia, with plans for an additional 2 million tons of alumina and a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project [2] Strategic Developments - The company successfully spun off its subsidiary, Nanshan Aluminum International Holdings, for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, enhancing its growth prospects in Indonesia [2] - The company is a key supplier for the C919 aircraft project, which is expected to benefit from increased production in the future [2] Dividend Policy - The company announced a cumulative cash dividend ratio of 40.92% for 2024, with plans to distribute at least 40% of its distributable profits in cash annually from 2024 to 2026 [3] Earnings Forecast - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 5.44 billion yuan and 5.66 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 6.06 billion yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 3.83 CNY per share [5]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in revenue and net profit in 2024, with total revenue reaching 33.48 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 16.06%, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 4.83 billion CNY, a growth of 39.03% [1][3]. - The growth in performance is attributed to the increase in both volume and price of products, particularly from the Indonesian alumina project and the recovery of overseas demand for aluminum products [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.90 CNY per share for 2024, resulting in a cumulative cash dividend payout ratio of 40.92% for the year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 9.25 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 29.31%, and a net profit of 1.34 billion CNY, up 0.59% year-on-year [1]. - The average price of domestic alumina in 2024 was approximately 3,994 CNY/ton, up about 38% year-on-year, while the average price of overseas alumina was around 503 USD/ton, an increase of 46% year-on-year [1]. Future Outlook - The company is expanding its production capacity in Indonesia, with plans to invest in an additional 2 million tons of alumina capacity and a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project [2]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply-demand balance is expected to improve from a surplus of 490,000 tons in 2024 to a shortage of 350,000 tons in 2026, indicating a potential upward trend in aluminum prices [2]. Dividend Policy - The company has a planned dividend payout ratio of no less than 40% of the distributable profit for the years 2024-2026, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [3]. Earnings Forecast - The report projects net profits of 5.44 billion CNY and 5.66 billion CNY for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 6.06 billion CNY, reflecting an upward adjustment in earnings expectations [3][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Nanshan Aluminum is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in 2024, with total revenue reaching 33.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.83 billion yuan, up 39.0% year-on-year [7] - The Indonesian alumina business has become a major contributor to the company's performance, with the average overseas alumina price rising by 46% to approximately 503 USD/ton in 2024, and the Indonesian project generating a net profit of 3.47 billion yuan, a 175.1% increase year-on-year [7] - The company has consistently increased its cash dividends, with a proposed cash dividend of 0.90 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a total dividend of 1.976 billion yuan for the year, representing a payout ratio of 40.92% [7] - Future growth drivers include the expansion of the Indonesian projects and the increase in high-end product sales, with high-end products accounting for 14% of total aluminum sales and 23% of total gross profit [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2024 is 33.48 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 16.06% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is forecasted at 4.83 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 39.03% [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.42 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.19 [8] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 75.55 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 18.03% [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Nanshan Aluminum is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in revenue and net profit, with a revenue of 33.48 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, and a net profit of 4.83 billion yuan, up 39.0% year-on-year [7] - The Indonesian alumina business has become a major contributor to the company's performance, with the average price of overseas alumina reaching approximately 503 USD/ton, a 46% increase from 2023, and the Indonesian project achieving full production [7] - The company has consistently increased its cash dividends, with a total dividend distribution of 1.90 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 40.92% for the year [7] - Future growth is expected from the expansion of the Indonesian projects and the increase in high-end aluminum product sales, which are projected to enhance profitability [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 33.48 billion yuan in 2024 to 40.86 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.59% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 4.83 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.31 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trend [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.42 yuan in 2024 to 0.46 yuan in 2027, indicating a positive outlook for shareholder returns [8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 9.19 in 2024 to 8.36 in 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation for investors [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Nanshan Aluminum is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 33.48 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.83 billion yuan, up 39.0% year-on-year [4][5] - The increase in profits is primarily attributed to the significant rise in alumina prices, with expectations for continued strong performance in Q4 2024 [4][5] - The company is expanding its alumina production capacity in Indonesia, with a total of 2 million tons planned, which is expected to further enhance its performance [5] - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, distributing a total of 1.976 billion yuan in dividends in 2024, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, with expected net profits of 5.14 billion, 4.92 billion, and 5.51 billion yuan respectively, showing a year-on-year change of +6.4%, -4.3%, and +12.0% [4][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.44, 0.42, and 0.47 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8.9, 9.3, and 8.3 times [4][8] - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 28.4% in 2025, with a net margin of 14.6% [8] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 76.12 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 17.8% [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Nanshan Aluminum is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 33.48 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.83 billion yuan, up 39.0% year-on-year [4][5] - The increase in profits is primarily attributed to the significant rise in alumina prices, with expectations for continued strong performance in Q4 2024 [4][5] - The company is expanding its alumina production capacity in Indonesia, with a total of 2 million tons planned, which is expected to further enhance its performance [5] - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of over 40% in 2024, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, with expected net profits of 5.14 billion, 4.92 billion, and 5.51 billion yuan respectively, showing a year-on-year change of +6.4%, -4.3%, and +12.0% [4][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.44, 0.42, and 0.47 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8.9, 9.3, and 8.3 times [4][8] - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 28.4% in 2025, with a net margin of 14.6% [8] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 76.12 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 17.8% [10]

证 券 研 究 报 告 南山铝业（600219）2024 年报点评 推荐（维持） 海外氧化铝量价齐升带动业绩大幅增长 事项： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 33,477 | 36,881 | 41,092 | 44,001 | | 同比增速(%) | 16.1% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 7.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 4,830 | 5,488 | 5,768 | 6,044 | | 同比增速(%) | 39.0% | 13.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.42 | 0.47 | 0.50 | 0.52 | | 市盈率(倍) | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | | 市净率(倍) | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 3 月 25 日收盘价 公司研究 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：马金龙 邮箱： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 3.92 CNY [7]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.83 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.03%. The non-recurring net profit was 4.91 billion CNY, up 80.77% year-on-year [1]. - The company expects significant growth from its Indonesian operations, with plans to invest 60.6 billion CNY in a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project and 63.3 billion CNY for a 2 million-ton alumina capacity [4]. - The automotive sheet market is anticipated to grow rapidly, with the company being a leader in this segment, currently having a production capacity of 200,000 tons and plans for an additional 200,000 tons [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company's net profit was 1.34 billion CNY, a slight increase of 0.59% year-on-year and 2.96% quarter-on-quarter. The non-recurring net profit for the same period was 1.50 billion CNY, up 134.50% year-on-year and 19.70% quarter-on-quarter [1][3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.9 CNY per 10 shares, leading to a total dividend payout of 1.976 billion CNY for 2024, with a payout ratio of 40.92% [3]. Production and Pricing - The company achieved full production capacity of 680,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum domestically, with an expected production of 678,200 tons in 2024. The Indonesian alumina production is projected to reach 500,000 tons in Q4 2024 [2]. - The market prices for aluminum and alumina increased significantly in Q4 2024, with aluminum prices rising by 973 CNY/ton and alumina prices by 1,397 CNY/ton [2]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 4.96 billion CNY, 5.15 billion CNY, and 5.35 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a consistent PE ratio of 9x during these years [4][6].