Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [5][6][20] Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is expected to see stable growth due to the introduction of policies aimed at enhancing industry health and eliminating outdated capacity [5][6] - The demand for viscose filament is anticipated to tighten, leading to an upward trend in prices, while the grass herbicide market is expected to optimize its structure [5][6] - The global GDP growth is projected to remain at 2.8%, with stable oil demand despite some slowdown due to tariff policies [5][6] Industry Dynamics - Oil supply is expected to increase significantly, driven by non-OPEC production, while demand remains stable [5][6] - The coal market is anticipated to experience long-term price stabilization, with easing pressures on downstream sectors [5][6] - Natural gas exports from the U.S. are likely to accelerate, potentially lowering import costs [5][6] Chemical Sector Analysis - The report highlights that the viscose filament industry will see a supply-demand tightening, with a projected increase in operating rates from 84% to over 95% [5][6] - The grass herbicide market is set to address issues of low pricing and quality through upcoming industry meetings aimed at regulating competition [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy, including textiles, agriculture, and export-related chemicals [5][6] - Specific companies to watch include Xinxiang Chemical Fiber, Jilin Chemical Fiber, and Lier Chemical, which are expected to benefit from market dynamics [5][6][20] Key Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating various ratings such as "Buy" and "Increase" for companies like Hailir Chemical, Yunnan Chemical, and Wanhu Chemical [20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [148]. Core Insights - The report highlights that domestic and international refining project price differentials have shown a decline, with domestic key refining project price differential at 2338.86 CNY/ton, down by 1.52% week-on-week, while the international price differential is at 1062.71 CNY/ton, down by 9.32% [2][3]. - Brent crude oil average price for the week ending September 26, 2025, was 68.03 USD/barrel, reflecting a slight increase of 0.71% [2][3]. - The report indicates that the refining sector is facing mixed signals, with international oil prices experiencing volatility due to geopolitical factors and economic data from the US raising concerns about demand [2][14]. - In the chemical sector, prices for petrochemical products have generally weakened, with price differentials narrowing across various products [2][46]. - The polyester and nylon sectors are experiencing price declines, with polyester filament factories slightly reducing production while facing weak demand [2][81][115]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report notes fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent and WTI prices increasing by 3.45 and 3.04 USD/barrel respectively from the previous week [14]. - Domestic diesel and gasoline prices have slightly decreased, with average prices at 6905.29 CNY/ton and 7995.14 CNY/ton respectively [14]. Chemical Sector - Polyethylene prices have shown slight declines, with LDPE, LLDPE, and HDPE averaging 9685.71 CNY/ton, 7148.00 CNY/ton, and 8000.00 CNY/ton respectively [53][66]. - The report indicates that the MMA market is showing price stability due to limited supply pressure, with MMA averaging 10242.86 CNY/ton [66]. Polyester & Nylon Sector - PX prices have decreased, with the current average at 5757.10 CNY/ton, while PTA prices are also down to 4537.86 CNY/ton [81][96]. - The report highlights that the demand for polyester filament remains weak, with production adjustments being made in response to inventory levels [81][123]. Market Performance - The report tracks the stock performance of six major refining companies, noting significant weekly changes, with Rongsheng Petrochemical up by 4.55% and Dongfang Shenghong down by 3.32% [134][135]. - The overall performance of the refining index has increased by 44.48% since September 4, 2017, outperforming both the oil and petrochemical industry indices [137].

Core Viewpoint - The coal chemical concept sector has shown a positive performance with a 0.80% increase, ranking fifth among concept sectors, driven by significant gains in several stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Sector Performance - As of September 26, the coal chemical concept sector increased by 0.80%, with 60 stocks rising, including Yicheng New Energy which hit the daily limit up of 20% [1]. - Notable gainers in the sector included Donghua Technology (up 10.04%), Hongsheng Co., and Luhua Technology, both hitting the daily limit [1][3]. - The top decliners were Lu'an Environmental Energy, Jiufeng Energy, and Hangyang Co., with declines of 2.89%, 2.44%, and 2.39% respectively [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The coal chemical sector attracted a net inflow of 435 million yuan, with 44 stocks receiving net inflows, and 6 stocks exceeding 50 million yuan in net inflow [2]. - Donghua Technology led the net inflow with 148 million yuan, followed by Junzheng Group and Luhua Technology with 114 million yuan and 82.94 million yuan respectively [2][3]. - The top stocks by net inflow ratio included Yicheng New Energy (35.30%), Luhua Technology (27.98%), and Donghua Technology (22.55%) [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.65% on September 26, with the oil and petrochemical sector leading the gains, increasing by 1.17% [1] Industry Summary - The oil and petrochemical sector saw a net inflow of 78.76 million yuan, with 32 out of 47 stocks in the sector rising [1] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow were Hengyi Petrochemical (67.72 million yuan), China Petroleum (67.71 million yuan), and Hengli Petrochemical (46.23 million yuan) [1] - The sectors with the largest declines were computer and electronics, with decreases of 3.26% and 2.75% respectively [1] Company Summary - Hengyi Petrochemical experienced a significant increase of 6.89% with a turnover rate of 2.00% and a net inflow of 67.72 million yuan [1] - China Petroleum rose by 0.25% with a turnover rate of 0.07% and a net inflow of 67.71 million yuan [1] - Hengli Petrochemical increased by 3.48% with a turnover rate of 0.67% and a net inflow of 46.23 million yuan [1] - The companies with the largest net outflows included Tongkun Co. (10.3 million yuan), Donghua Energy (35.13 million yuan), and Rongsheng Petrochemical (26.22 million yuan) [1][2]

Market Overview - The refining and trading sector increased by 0.72% on September 26, with Hengyi Petrochemical leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3828.11, down 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13209.0, down 1.76% [1] Stock Performance - Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) closed at 6.83, up 6.89% with a trading volume of 716,400 shares and a turnover of 495 million [1] - Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233) closed at 14.95, up 6.03% with a trading volume of 855,000 shares and a turnover of 1.29 billion [1] - Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) closed at 9.89, up 4.99% with a trading volume of 758,500 shares and a turnover of 743 million [1] - Other notable stocks include Daqing Huake (000985) up 3.90% and Hengli Petrochemical (600346) up 3.48% [1] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector saw a net inflow of 37.72 million from main funds, while speculative funds had a net inflow of 72.77 million [2] - Retail investors experienced a net outflow of 110 million [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Hengli Petrochemical (600346) had a main fund net inflow of 70.19 million, with a retail net outflow of 76.95 million [3] - Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) saw a main fund net inflow of 66.45 million, with a retail net outflow of 68.47 million [3] - China Petroleum (601857) had a main fund net inflow of 65.63 million, with a retail net inflow of 18.97 million [3]

Group 1 - Hengli Petrochemical's stock increased by 5.12% on September 26, reaching a price of 17.24 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 448 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.38%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 121.354 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on March 9, 1999, and listed on August 20, 2001, is located in Dalian, Liaoning Province, and specializes in the research, production, and sales of polyester fibers, polyester films, and related products, as well as the production and sales of steam and electricity [1] - The main revenue composition of Hengli Petrochemical includes refining products at 45.92%, PTA at 31.10%, polyester products at 19.24%, and others at 3.73% [1] Group 2 - According to data from the top ten holdings of funds, one fund under Harvest Fund has a significant position in Hengli Petrochemical, specifically the Harvest CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index Fund A (013527), which reduced its holdings by 84,500 shares in the second quarter, now holding 363,800 shares, accounting for 2.95% of the fund's net value [2] - The Harvest CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index Fund A was established on September 22, 2022, with a latest scale of 16.2829 million CNY, achieving a year-to-date return of 19.12% and a one-year return of 29.73% [2] - The fund manager, Zhang Chaoliang, has been in the position for 5 years and 290 days, overseeing total assets of 24.102 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 70.4% and the worst being -29.94% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Hengli Petrochemical's stock price has shown fluctuations in recent trading sessions, with a year-to-date increase of 13.02% but a recent decline over the past five and twenty days [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Hengli Petrochemical reported a revenue of 103.944 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.050 billion yuan, down 24.08% compared to the previous year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 26.136 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 7.602 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Shareholder Information - The number of shareholders as of June 30, 2025, was 74,400, a decrease of 0.75% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 0.75% to 94,588 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 239 million shares, an increase of 23.2252 million shares from the previous period [3]. Market Activity - On September 26, Hengli Petrochemical's stock rose by 2.13%, reaching 16.75 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 82.4383 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.07% [1]. - The company's market capitalization stands at 117.905 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 715,900 yuan in principal funds on the same day [1].

Market Overview - On September 25, the refining and trading sector rose by 0.05% compared to the previous trading day, with Donghua Energy leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.3, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13445.9, up 0.67% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the refining and trading sector showed varied performance: - Donghua Energy (002221) closed at 9.10, up 5.45% with a trading volume of 480,700 shares and a turnover of 427 million yuan [1] - Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) closed at 9.42, up 1.51% with a trading volume of 255,000 shares and a turnover of 240 million yuan [1] - China Petroleum (601857) closed at 8.14, up 0.12% with a trading volume of 1,011,100 shares and a turnover of 823 million yuan [1] - China Petrochemical (600028) closed at 5.35, down 0.19% with a trading volume of 894,600 shares and a turnover of 478 million yuan [1] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector experienced a net outflow of 109 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.1 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for key stocks indicated mixed trends, with some stocks attracting significant retail interest despite overall outflows [3]

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry in China is entering a concentrated production period from 2019 to 2025, with average capacity growth exceeding 10% per year, leading to increased competition and declining operating rates/profits, yet apparent consumption of key petrochemical products is expected to grow rapidly during this phase [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The petrochemical sector is experiencing a significant expansion in capacity, particularly in refining, ethylene, PX, methanol, and refining by-products, driven by policy [1] - The export of chemical products is shifting towards quantity over price, with a notable decline in price indices across various sectors, while export volumes for plastics, rubber, and automotive products are expected to maintain growth rates above 10% from 2023 to 2025 [3] - Domestic self-sufficiency rates for key petrochemical products have significantly improved, with ethylene and PX self-sufficiency rates increasing by 19% and 18%, respectively, which corresponds to the absorption of 949,000 and 855,000 tons of capacity [4] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - The development of new industries and emerging consumer markets in China is driving demand for chemical products, particularly in the new energy vehicle and wind power sectors, leading to increased demand for EVA, POE, epoxy resins, and PVDF [5] - The overall domestic demand remains moderate, but structural highlights are evident, with traditional plastics benefiting from the rise of e-commerce and delivery services [5] - The integration, scaling, and intensification of domestic industrial chains are establishing comparative advantages, while the economic growth in ASEAN and Africa is expected to create rapid growth opportunities for chemical demand [5] Group 3: Export Opportunities - The expansion of production capacity is leading to a significant increase in exports, particularly to emerging markets in ASEAN and Africa, as well as a decline in competitiveness from Europe and Japan, which is resulting in a trend reversal for Chinese chemical exports [4] - The CAGR for exports of styrene, PP, PTA, EVA, PA6, and PVC is projected to exceed 40% from 2020 to 2024, with other monitored products also showing growth rates between 9% and 40% [4]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On September 24, a total of 93 stocks appeared on the block trading platform, with a cumulative trading volume of 239 million shares and a total trading value of 3.612 billion yuan, indicating active trading in the market [1]. Group 1: Trading Activity - The highest trading value was recorded for Zijin Mining, with two transactions totaling 363 million yuan [1]. - Following Zijin Mining, Oulutong had 59 transactions with a total trading value of 334 million yuan [1]. - A total of 49 stocks had trading values exceeding 10 million yuan, reflecting significant investor interest [1]. Group 2: Notable Stocks - Zijin Mining (stock code: 601899) had a closing price of 25.93 yuan, with a slight increase of 0.43% [1]. - Oulutong (stock code: 300870) closed at 220.58 yuan, showing a rise of 1.89%, but had a trading price of 182.00 yuan, reflecting a discount of 17.49% [1]. - Liyade (stock code: 300296) experienced a 3.54% increase, closing at 7.32 yuan, with a trading price of 7.07 yuan, indicating a discount of 3.42% [1].