Market Performance - The special steel sector increased by 3.29% on October 27, with Changbao Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3996.94, up 1.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13489.4, up 1.51% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Changbao Co., Ltd. (002478) closed at 6.74, up 9.95% with a trading volume of 417,100 shares and a transaction value of 277 million yuan [1] - CITIC Special Steel (000708) closed at 14.82, up 5.41% with a trading volume of 400,400 shares and a transaction value of 598 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include Shengde Zhengtai (300881) up 4.17%, Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825) up 2.72%, and Fangda Special Steel (600507) up 2.57% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The special steel sector saw a net inflow of 156 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 112 million yuan [2] - The main funds' net inflow for Changbao Co., Ltd. was 58.1 million yuan, representing 20.95% of its trading volume [3] - Other stocks like Taiyuan Iron & Steel and Fangda Special Steel also experienced significant net inflows from main funds [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][3][3]. Core Views - The revision of the capacity replacement plan by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the steel industry marginally. The new draft includes stricter compliance requirements for capacity replacement, which may lead to a more regulated market [3][3]. - The report notes a decrease in steel profits, with specific margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel declining by 7, 17, and 23 yuan per ton, respectively, while electric arc furnace steel margins increased by 1 yuan per ton [1][1][1]. - Steel production increased to 8.65 million tons, with a notable rise in rebar production, while total inventory decreased by 260,100 tons, indicating a tightening market [2][2][2]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of October 24, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai was 3,190 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan from the previous week. Hot-rolled steel increased by 20 yuan to 3,300 yuan per ton, while cold-rolled steel rose by 10 yuan to 3,780 yuan per ton [1][12][13]. Production and Inventory - The total production of the five major steel products reached 8.65 million tons, an increase of 83,700 tons week-on-week. The total inventory of these products decreased by 260,100 tons to 1,098.5 million tons [2][2][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies within the steel sector, particularly those that are expected to benefit from the revised capacity replacement regulations. Specific companies highlighted include Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others across various segments [3][3][3].

Market Overview - The special steel sector experienced a decline of 0.46% on October 24, with Xining Special Steel leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3950.31, up 0.71%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13289.18, up 2.02% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the special steel sector included: - Xianglou New Materials (301160) with a closing price of 63.21, up 6.70% and a trading volume of 60,100 shares, totaling 376 million yuan [1] - Jinzhu Pipeline (002443) closed at 8.70, up 4.82% with a trading volume of 313,900 shares, totaling 270 million yuan [1] - Decliners included: - Xining Special Steel (600117) closed at 3.15, down 3.37% with a trading volume of 540,600 shares, totaling 171 million yuan [2] - Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825) closed at 4.05, down 1.70% with a trading volume of 448,500 shares, totaling 182 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The special steel sector saw a net inflow of 14.53 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 90.53 million yuan [2] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Jinzhu Pipeline (002443) had a net inflow of 49.17 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 44.99 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825) recorded a net inflow of 14.33 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 22.01 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Market Overview - The special steel sector increased by 0.23% on October 22, with Fangda Special Steel leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3913.76, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12996.61, down 0.62% [1] Stock Performance - Fangda Special Steel (600507) closed at 5.57, up 2.77% with a trading volume of 315,700 shares and a turnover of 175 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include: - Shengde Zhengtai (300881) at 35.29, up 2.20% [1] - Fushun Special Steel (665009) at 5.30, up 1.92% [1] - Jinzhu Pipeline (002443) at 8.48, up 1.44% [1] - Xining Special Steel (600117) at 3.28, up 1.23% [1] Capital Flow - The special steel sector saw a net inflow of 34.18 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 36.31 million yuan [2][3] - The capital flow for key stocks includes: - Fushun Special Steel with a net inflow of 28.63 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Jiu Li Special Materials (002318) with a net inflow of 16.07 million yuan [3] - Fangda Special Steel with a net inflow of 6.93 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Group 1 - Fushun Special Steel Co., Ltd. experienced a stock price increase of 5.38%, reaching 5.48 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 66.69 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.63%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 10.807 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on June 7, 1999, and listed on December 29, 2000, is located in Fushun City, Liaoning Province, and its main business includes steel smelting, steel rolling processing, metallurgical technology services, and the manufacturing and sales of industrial gases [1] - The revenue composition of the company is as follows: alloy structural steel 27.18%, stainless steel 24.74%, tool steel 20.20%, high-temperature alloy 18.86%, and others 9.02% [1] Group 2 - Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund's public utility stock fund (005669) is among the top ten circulating shareholders of Fushun Special Steel, holding 9.0015 million shares, which is unchanged from the previous period, representing 0.46% of the circulating shares [2] - The fund has achieved a year-to-date return of 33.71%, ranking 1326 out of 4218 in its category, and a one-year return of 30.96%, ranking 1434 out of 3869 [2] - Since its inception on March 23, 2018, the fund has generated a total return of 233.14% [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of Qianhai Kaiyuan Public Utility Stock Fund is Cui Chenlong, who has been in the position for 5 years and 96 days, managing a total fund size of 14.074 billion CNY [3] - During his tenure, the best fund return achieved was 210.44%, while the worst return was -22.5% [3]

Market Performance - The special steel sector increased by 1.09% on October 21, with Jinzhou Pipeline leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3916.33, up 1.36%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13077.32, up 2.06% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Jinzhou Pipeline (002443) closed at 8.36, up 6.23% with a trading volume of 249,200 shares and a turnover of 206 million yuan [1] - Changbao Co. (002478) closed at 6.33, up 4.46% with a trading volume of 397,100 shares and a turnover of 251 million yuan [1] - Shagang Group (002075) closed at 5.61, up 1.81% with a trading volume of 305,800 shares and a turnover of 171 million yuan [1] - Other notable performances include Taigang Stainless (000825) up 1.73% and Fangda Special Steel (600507) up 1.12% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The special steel sector saw a net inflow of 8.93 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 10.64 million yuan [2] - The sector experienced a net outflow of 19.57 million yuan from speculative funds [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Key Stocks - Jinzhou Pipeline (002443) had a net inflow of 16.46 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 3.39 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Shagang Group (002075) saw a net inflow of 15.62 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 17.73 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Fangda Special Steel (600507) had a net inflow of 4.64 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 6.74 million yuan from speculative funds [3]

Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in demand, with a notable increase in apparent consumption and a decrease in inventory levels, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [1][3] - Despite the positive demand trends, profitability in the steel sector has declined, with significant drops in gross margins for key products, suggesting ongoing cost pressures [2] - The supply side is expected to continue its contraction, supported by government policies aimed at reducing production and promoting a balance between supply and demand [3] Demand and Supply Analysis - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products reached 8.7541 million tons, up by 1.2398 million tons week-on-week, with construction materials and sheet products also showing increases [1] - Total steel production was 8.5695 million tons, down by 0.0636 million tons, while total inventory decreased to 15.8226 million tons, down by 0.1846 million tons, maintaining a low level [1] - The operating rate of blast furnaces remained stable at 84.27%, while electric furnace operating rates increased slightly, indicating a mixed response in production capabilities [1] Profitability Trends - The average gross profit for rebar fell to 111.6 CNY per ton, down by 34.3 CNY per ton, and for hot-rolled coils, it dropped to 21.6 CNY per ton, down by 67.6 CNY per ton [2] - The profitability rate for 247 steel companies decreased to 55.41%, down by 0.87% week-on-week, reflecting the challenges faced by the industry [2] Future Outlook - The demand from the real estate sector is expected to weaken, but stable growth is anticipated in infrastructure and manufacturing, which may support overall steel demand [3] - The government has introduced policies to control production, aiming to phase out inefficient capacities and support advanced enterprises, which may lead to a quicker recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [3] Investment Recommendations - Companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel (600019.SH) and Hualing Steel (000932.SZ), are recommended for their competitive advantages [5] - Low-valuation, high-dividend steel companies like CITIC Special Steel (000708.SZ) and Yongjin Shares (603995.SH) are also highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [5] - The report suggests a positive outlook for upstream resource companies, recommending firms like Hebei Steel Resources (000923.SZ) and Erdos (600295.SH) due to their long-term advantages [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Demand is expected to gradually bottom out, and supply-side market clearing has begun, indicating a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals. If supply policies are implemented, the contraction of supply may accelerate, leading to quicker industry recovery [3][8]. - The report highlights a week-on-week increase in steel consumption and a decrease in inventory levels, suggesting a positive trend in demand recovery post-holiday [5][12]. - Profit margins for steel production have decreased, with average gross margins for rebar and hot-rolled coils declining significantly [5][42]. Summary by Sections Steel Prices and Inventory - Last week, the price of Shanghai rebar fell by 50 CNY/ton to 3210 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.54%. Hot-rolled coil prices dropped by 120 CNY/ton to 3280 CNY/ton, a decline of 3.53% [8]. - Total inventory of major steel products decreased to 15.82 million tons, down 1.15% week-on-week [12]. Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices decreased by 10 CNY/ton to 780 CNY/ton, while futures prices fell by 24.5 CNY/ton to 771 CNY/ton [51]. - Iron ore port inventory rose to 142.78 million tons, an increase of 1.81% [53]. Production and Profitability - The total steel production last week was 8.57 million tons, a decrease of 6.36 million tons week-on-week [36]. - The average gross margin for rebar was 111.6 CNY/ton, down 34.3 CNY/ton, while for hot-rolled coils, it was 21.6 CNY/ton, down 67.6 CNY/ton [42]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the demand for steel will stabilize, with a gradual recovery expected in the construction and manufacturing sectors, despite ongoing challenges in the real estate market [5][8]. - The steel industry is expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing inefficient production capacity and promoting high-quality development [5].

Core Insights - The special steel sector experienced a 0.5% increase on October 20, with Jiuli Special Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3863.89, up 0.63%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12813.21, up 0.98% [1] Special Steel Sector Performance - Jiuli Special Materials (002318) closed at 25.47, with a rise of 2.87% and a trading volume of 160,300 shares, totaling a transaction value of 406 million yuan [1] - Xianglou New Materials (301160) closed at 58.88, up 2.54%, with a trading volume of 27,300 shares and a transaction value of 162 million yuan [1] - Shengde Zhengtai (300881) closed at 34.33, increasing by 1.18%, with a trading volume of 12,900 shares and a transaction value of 44.03 million yuan [1] - Fushun Special Steel (600399) closed at 5.16, up 0.58%, with a trading volume of 207,700 shares and a transaction value of 107 million yuan [1] - Other notable performances include Xining Special Steel (600117) at 3.21 (+0.31%), Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825) at 4.04 (+0.25%), and Jinzou Pipeline (002443) at 7.87 (+0.13%) [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The special steel sector saw a net inflow of 44.69 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 37.27 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment among different investor types, with main funds showing interest while retail investors withdrew [2]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" [4][6][72] Core Viewpoints - The construction demand is under pressure while raw material prices remain relatively strong, leading to a maintained "Overweight" rating for the industry [6] - Steel demand has shown a significant week-on-week increase, primarily driven by the resumption of work after the National Day holiday, although construction material demand remains weak year-on-year [6][10] - Steel inventory has increased week-on-week, with hot-rolled steel experiencing the most accumulation [6][15] - Iron output has decreased week-on-week but has increased year-on-year, indicating resilience in demand supported by the manufacturing sector [6][37] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47% this week, while the CSI 300 Index dropped by 2.22%. The steel sector declined by 2.01%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.21 percentage points [10] - Black futures prices have decreased, with rebar closing at 3037 CNY/ton, down 66 CNY/ton (2.13%), and hot-rolled coil at 3204 CNY/ton, down 81 CNY/ton (2.47%) [13][38] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased year-on-year, totaling 8.5922 million tons, although it increased by 1.5131 million tons week-on-week [15] - Total steel inventory rose to 21.7508 million tons, an increase of 389.33 thousand tons year-on-year [25] - The iron output from 247 steel enterprises was 2.4095 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.0059 million tons week-on-week but an increase of 0.659 million tons year-on-year [37] Profitability and Pricing - The profitability per ton of steel has weakened, with various steel products showing fluctuating profits, such as rebar at -15 CNY/ton and hot-rolled steel at -8 CNY/ton [46] - The profit ratio among 247 steel mills was 55.41%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points from the previous week [47] Downstream Demand - Domestic cement dispatches fell to 2.5285 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 726.5 thousand tons [58] - PVC production increased to 467.38 thousand tons, up 1.4293 thousand tons year-on-year [58]