证券研究报告：电力设备 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-05-08 股票投资评级 买入 |维持 研究所 个股表现 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 -19% -15% -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 21% 国电南瑞 电力设备 分析师:杨帅波 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070002 Email:yangshuaibo@cnpsec.com 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 22.15 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）80.32 | / 79.96 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）1,779 | / 1,771 | | 周内最高/最低价 52 | 27.90 / 21.86 | | 资产负债率(%) | 43.1% | | 市盈率 | 23.32 | | 第一大股东 | 南瑞集团有限公司 | 国电南瑞(600406) 业绩符合预期，持续受益电网和抽蓄设备景气度提 升 l 投资要点 事件：2025 年 4 月 29 日，公司发布 2024 年年报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The completion and commissioning of China's first large-scale integrated energy base project, the Longdong to Shandong ±800 kV UHVDC project, will significantly enhance the transmission of renewable and conventional energy from Gansu to Shandong, supporting energy resource optimization across regions [1][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - The UHVDC transmission line spans 915 kilometers, starting from Gansu and passing through Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Hebei, ultimately reaching Shandong [3]. - The project includes the construction of two converter stations in Gansu and Shandong, with a transmission capacity of 8 million kilowatts, capable of delivering over 36 billion kilowatt-hours of energy annually, sufficient to power over 10 million households for a year [3]. Group 2: Energy Composition - The total energy transmitted includes wind, solar, thermal, and storage power, with green energy accounting for half of the total [3]. Group 3: Strategic Importance - The project supports the development of large-scale wind and solar energy bases and their associated UHV projects, addressing the energy shortage in North China while optimizing the rich energy resources in the western regions [5]. Group 4: Environmental Considerations - To minimize the impact on native vegetation during construction, the project utilized a 2.07-kilometer freight cableway and detachable rotary drilling rigs, which were transported and assembled on-site [11]. - The construction team plans to replant 32 hectares of trees and sow 40 hectares of grass seeds in the areas affected by the construction of five transmission towers in the ecologically sensitive Ziwuling region [9][15].

Core Viewpoint - The global power system is facing new challenges, leading to an increased demand for grid expansion and upgrades, which is expected to directly benefit the power equipment industry [1] Group 1: Main Grid Developments - The demand for ultra-high voltage (UHV) construction is increasing due to the growth of inter-provincial electricity flow and the pressure of renewable energy consumption. As of December 2024, China has built and put into operation 41 UHV transmission lines, including 20 AC lines and 21 DC lines [2] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China is expected to start construction on "three AC and nine DC" UHV lines, with over 20 lines anticipated to be operational in the 15th Five-Year Plan period, which will boost demand for related equipment [2] - Flexible DC technology is expected to become mainstream due to its advantages in large-scale renewable energy transmission, especially as the prices of core components like IGBT decrease. Investment in this area is projected to reach 380 billion yuan from 2021 to 2025 [2] Group 2: Distribution Network Developments - Both domestic and international plans for distribution network upgrades are expected to increase demand for transformers. China emphasizes high-quality development in distribution networks, while the EU plans to invest 584 billion euros for grid modernization [3] - China's transformer production accounts for 35% of the global market, and with overseas production facing constraints, there is an opportunity for Chinese companies to benefit from rising global demand [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The emergence of new electricity consumption scenarios, represented by computing power, is driving greater electricity demand and necessitating grid upgrades. The main grid sector is expected to benefit from the acceleration of UHV construction and the growing number of flexible DC projects [4] - The distribution network sector is also poised for growth due to ongoing domestic upgrades and strong overseas demand for transformers. Companies such as Huaming Equipment, Haixing Electric Power, and others are recommended for investment [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment industry [1]. Core Insights - The demand for power grid upgrades is driven by the increasing proportion of global renewable energy installations and the emergence of new electricity consumption scenarios, which directly benefits the power equipment sector [1][3]. - The construction of ultra-high voltage (UHV) transmission lines is accelerating due to the growing need for cross-regional power transmission and renewable energy delivery, with flexible direct current technology expected to increase its penetration rate [1][3]. - Domestic and international initiatives for power grid renovation are expected to boost transformer demand, benefiting the entire industry chain [1][3]. Summary by Sections New Power Consumption Scenarios - The emergence of new power consumption scenarios, represented by computing power, is creating greater electricity demand and necessitating upgrades to the power grid [3][33]. - The growth in renewable energy generation, particularly solar and wind, is placing additional demands on the grid to accommodate fluctuating supply [25][21]. Main Power Grid - The acceleration of UHV construction is expected to enhance the capacity for renewable energy consumption [44]. - As of December 2024, China has built and put into operation 41 UHV transmission lines, including 20 AC and 21 DC lines, with plans for more in the upcoming years [50]. - The investment scale for UHV projects is projected to reach 380 billion yuan from 2021 to 2025, benefiting core component manufacturers [3][30]. Distribution Network - The domestic push for distribution network upgrades, coupled with strong overseas demand for grid modernization, is anticipated to increase transformer requirements [3][31]. - China's transformer production accounts for 35% of the global market, with significant export potential due to supply constraints in overseas markets [3][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that will benefit from the high demand in the UHV sector and those with international expansion potential in the transformer segment [3]. - Recommended companies include Huaming Equipment and Haixing Electric, with additional attention to China Western Power, Guodian NARI, Siyuan Electric, Pinggao Electric, Mingyang Electric, Sifang Co., and Jiangsu Huachen [3].

证券研究报告：电力设备 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-05-08 股票投资评级 买入 |维持 个股表现 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 -19% -15% -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 21% 国电南瑞 电力设备 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 22.15 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）80.32 | / 79.96 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）1,779 | / 1,771 | | 周内最高/最低价 52 | 27.90 / 21.86 | | 资产负债率(%) | 43.1% | | 市盈率 | 23.32 | | 第一大股东 | 南瑞集团有限公司 | 研究所 分析师:杨帅波 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070002 Email:yangshuaibo@cnpsec.com 国电南瑞(600406) 业绩符合预期，持续受益电网和抽蓄设备景气度提 升 l 投资要点 事件：2025 年 4 月 29 日，公司发布 2024 年年报 ...

Core Insights - The State Grid announced the completion and commissioning of the East Long—Shandong ±800 kV UHVDC project, marking the establishment of China's first large-scale integrated energy base for wind, solar, and thermal storage [1] - Over half of the electricity transmitted through this UHVDC line is derived from renewable sources such as wind energy, solar energy, and energy storage [1] Industry Impact - This project signifies a significant advancement in China's efforts to integrate renewable energy into the national grid, enhancing energy security and sustainability [1] - The successful operation of this project may set a precedent for future large-scale renewable energy projects in China and potentially influence global energy transition strategies [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Nari Tech and other domestic China opportunities, while downgrading Sungrow to "Neutral" [3][24]. Core Views - The report indicates a preference for domestic China opportunities, particularly in the grid technology sector, with a strong outlook for 2025E grid investment [2][3]. - The overall sector results for 1Q25 were largely in-line, with a median revenue change of -0% and net profit change of -6% compared to Goldman Sachs estimates [1][10]. - The report revises target prices by -14% to +13% based on 1Q25 results and forward-looking trends, rolling over the valuation base year to 2026E [1][43]. Summary by Sections 1Q25 Results Summary - 1Q25 sector results were largely in-line with 14 companies missing earnings, 13 in-line, and 5 beating expectations [1][10]. - The median gross profit margin (GPM), operating profit margin (OPM), and net profit margin (NPM) were -0.9pp, -1.7pp, and -0.5pp compared to Goldman Sachs estimates [11]. Demand Outlook - The report expects a weaker demand outlook for industrial automation in 2H25, lowering the growth expectation from flat to -4% year-on-year due to tariff impacts and uncertainties [12][16]. - Despite the challenges, a deep decline in demand is not anticipated, with government policies potentially providing support [14][20]. Domestic Opportunities - Nari Tech is highlighted as a preferred investment due to its strong growth guidance of 12% year-on-year for 2025, attributed to a robust backlog and favorable market conditions [24][46]. - The report emphasizes the potential benefits from government stimulus and the structural needs for smart grid investments in China [3][25]. AI Beneficiaries - The report continues to favor AI beneficiaries, particularly in the AI Data Centre (AIDC) space, with companies like Kstar and Envicool rated as "Buy" due to strong demand growth [2][34]. - The humanoid robot sector is also noted for its rapid R&D advancements, with companies like Sanhua being preferred for their product certainty and reasonable valuations [38][39]. Target Price Revisions - Target prices for the sector have been revised downwards by an average of -14% to +13%, reflecting the 1Q25 results and anticipated market trends [1][43].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the differences and similarities between two indices related to central enterprise technology: the China Securities National New Central Enterprise Technology Leading Index and the China Securities Chengtong Central Enterprise Technology Innovation Index, highlighting their performance and characteristics in the context of recent market movements. Group 1: Differences Between the Indices - The China Securities National New Central Enterprise Technology Leading Index is customized by Guoxin Investment Co., Ltd., while the China Securities Chengtong Central Enterprise Technology Innovation Index is customized by China Chengtong Group [2]. - The selection methods differ: the National New Index scores based on net profit growth, revenue growth, total market capitalization, and R&D expenditure as a percentage of revenue, whereas the Chengtong Index evaluates based on the number and quality of patents and the implementation of equity incentives [3]. - Industry distribution varies significantly; the National New Index focuses heavily on aerospace and defense, electronics, and semiconductors, with a combined weight of nearly 80%, while the Chengtong Index has a more balanced distribution across telecommunications, aerospace and defense, and electronics, with the top five industries also exceeding 80% [4][6]. Group 2: Key Holdings and Performance - The top ten holdings of the National New Index account for 52.63% of the total, with Hikvision and AVIC Optoelectronics each exceeding 7% [8]. - In contrast, the Chengtong Index's top ten holdings represent 60.34% of the total, with China Telecom, Hikvision, and China Mobile each exceeding 7% [12]. - Historical performance shows that while the one-year returns of both indices are similar, the Chengtong Index outperforms the National New Index over three and five years, with the National New Index exhibiting higher volatility across all time frames [14]. Group 3: Valuation and Commonalities - As of now, the National New Index's TTM price-to-earnings ratio has risen to the historical 100th percentile, indicating a high valuation position [15]. - The Chengtong Index's TTM price-to-earnings ratio is also above the historical 80th percentile, suggesting a similarly high valuation, although its historical data is limited [17]. - Both indices select samples from listed companies under the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, aim to reflect the overall performance of central enterprises in technology innovation, and emphasize that R&D expenditure as a percentage of revenue should not be less than 3% [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric equipment industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The human-shaped robot sector is experiencing significant domestic and international resonance, indicating a strong growth potential. The valuation of leading lithium battery storage companies is currently low, presenting a potential investment opportunity [1][4] - The report highlights a robust demand for energy storage solutions, particularly in emerging markets, and anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20-40% for global energy storage installations from 2025 to 2028 [4][5] Industry Trends - The electric equipment sector has shown varied performance, with specific segments like nuclear power and electric vehicles experiencing growth, while others like wind and photovoltaic sectors have faced declines [4] - The report notes significant developments in the human-shaped robot market, including strategic partnerships and product deliveries, which are expected to drive growth in this sector [4] - The electric vehicle market is witnessing a surge in sales, with major manufacturers reporting substantial year-on-year increases in production and sales figures [4] Company Performance - Notable companies such as Ningde Times, BYD, and Sunshine Power are highlighted for their strong market positions and growth potential, with specific revenue and profit forecasts provided for 2024 and 2025 [6][8] - The report emphasizes the financial performance of various companies, indicating a mix of growth and challenges, with some companies like Longi Green Energy facing significant declines in revenue and profit [4][6] Investment Strategy - The report recommends a focus on key sectors such as robotics, energy storage, and electric vehicles, identifying specific companies that are expected to benefit from market trends and technological advancements [6][10] - It suggests that the human-shaped robot market is at a pivotal point, akin to the early stages of the electric vehicle market, with substantial long-term growth potential [10]

证券代码：600406 证券简称：国电南瑞 公告编号：临 2025-030 国电南瑞科技股份有限公司 关于以集中竞价交易方式股份回购进展情况的公告 根据《上市公司股份回购规则》、《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引 第 7 号—回购股份》等相关规定，现将公司回购股份的进展情况公告如下： 截至2025年4月30日，公司以集中竞价交易方式累计回购公司股份6,882,583 股，占公司总股本 8,032,088,259 股的比例为 0.086%，购买的最高价为 22.30 元/ 股，最低价为 22.13 元/股，支付资金总金额为 152,978,403.92 元（不含交易费 用）。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： | 回购方案首次披露日 | 2025/4/15，由时任董事长山社武先生于 2025/4/7 | | --- | --- | | 提议 | | | 回购方案实施期限 | 自公司董事会审议通过之日起不超过 个月 12 | | 预计回购金额 | 5亿元~10亿元 | | 回购用途 | □减少注册资 ...