Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Liquidity expectations are strengthening, and the expansion trend is expected to continue. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will halt interest rate cuts from January to April, leading to a temporary stabilization in the financial attributes. The upcoming Supreme Court ruling on the Trump tariff case may significantly increase price volatility. With supportive policies both domestically and internationally, the bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged, and the expansion trend is likely to persist [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Strengthening Liquidity Expectations, Continued Expansion Trend - The U.S. unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, with non-farm employment increasing by 50,000, below the market expectation of 73,000. This indicates a new equilibrium in the labor market, with both supply and demand growth slowing [12]. 2. Industry and Individual Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 8.56% in the week ending January 9, ranking fourth among all industries [19]. The sector's performance outpaced major indices, with small metals showing the highest gains [20]. 3. Macro Data Tracking - The report highlights various macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. CPI and PPI, as well as China's manufacturing PMI, which stood at 50.1% in December, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing sector [30][34]. 4. Precious Metals: Increased Volatility Expected Ahead of Tariff Ruling - Gold prices increased, with SHFE gold rising by 2.96% to 1,006.48 CNY per gram and COMEX gold up by 3.59% to 4,473.00 USD per ounce. Silver also saw significant gains, with SHFE silver up by 9.70% to 18,731.00 CNY per kilogram [13][14][27]. 5. Copper: Continued Weakness, Increased Volatility from Tariff Disruptions - Copper prices rose, with SHFE copper increasing by 3.23% to 101,410 CNY per ton and LME copper up by 4.24% to 12,998 USD per ton. Supply tightness continues to affect the market, with copper concentrate treatment charges declining [16][26]. 6. Aluminum: Price Improvement, Export Competition May Increase Mismatch - Aluminum prices increased, with SHFE aluminum rising by 6.13% to 24,330 CNY per ton. The report notes a slight increase in domestic aluminum inventory and stable production capacity [15][78].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the metals and new materials industry, anticipating a favorable spring market [2]. Core Insights - The metals sector continues to show strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.82% and the non-ferrous metals index increasing by 8.56%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 5.77 percentage points [4][5]. - Precious metals are expected to see price increases due to ongoing central bank purchases and a favorable economic outlook, with specific recommendations for companies like Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining [4][22]. - Industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, are projected to maintain upward price trends due to supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like AI and energy [4][46]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report highlights a significant increase in the non-ferrous metals index, which rose by 8.56% compared to the previous week, indicating strong market momentum [5]. - Key segments such as precious metals, aluminum, and small metals have shown substantial weekly gains, with increases ranging from 6.30% to 12.87% [9]. Price Changes - Industrial metals prices have seen notable increases, with copper prices up by 4.24% and aluminum prices up by 4.00% [16]. - Lithium prices have surged, with battery-grade lithium carbonate increasing by 17.65% and lithium hydroxide by 20.00% [19]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper supply is tightening, with domestic social inventory increasing to 274,000 tons, while production disruptions are expected due to labor negotiations in Chile [32]. - Aluminum production is also on the rise, with the operating rate for downstream processing enterprises increasing to 60.10% [46]. Company Valuations - Key companies in the sector are highlighted with their respective valuations, such as Zijin Mining with a PE ratio of 31 and Shandong Gold with a PE of 77, indicating strong market positions [20]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable supply-demand dynamics and cost improvements, such as Yunnan Tin and Huafon Chemical [20][21].

Group 1 - The precious metals sector increased by 3.78% on January 9, with Xiaocheng Technology leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4120.43, up 0.92%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14120.15, up 1.15% [1] - Key stocks in the precious metals sector showed significant price increases, with Shandong Gold rising by 5.75% and Hunan Gold by 3.94% [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of main funds in the precious metals sector was 371 million yuan, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 208 million yuan [1] - Shandong Gold had a main fund net inflow of 322 million yuan, but also saw a retail net outflow of 274 million yuan [2] - Hunan Gold experienced a main fund net inflow of 55 million yuan, with a retail net outflow of 935 thousand yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant surge, with the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) reaching a historical high and attracting substantial capital inflows [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On January 9, the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF saw an intraday price increase of over 3.5%, setting a new historical high [1] - The ETF has received a net subscription of 55.8 million units, with a total capital inflow of 194 million yuan over the past five days, and 279 million yuan over the last ten days [1] - The top-performing stocks within the ETF include Hai Liang Co. (10.02% increase), Xiamen Tungsten (10.00% increase), and Yunnan Pig Industry (10.01% increase) [2] Group 2: Commodity Price Trends - Recent price increases have been noted in various minor metal products, particularly tungsten, with black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) priced at 485,000 yuan/ton, a 5.4% increase week-on-week, and tungsten powder at 1,130 yuan/kg, a 6.5% increase week-on-week [2] - Analysts indicate that the tungsten market is supported by supply constraints due to lower ore grades, controlled mining volumes, and sellers' reluctance to sell, alongside global demand for strategic resources [3] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Current market conditions are characterized by a "slump phase" in the fifth Kondratiev wave cycle, with expectations that commodities will benefit as the previous technology cycle peaks and a new one is still developing [3] - The U.S. economy faces recession pressures, which may lead to a reevaluation of commodities like gold and copper as global assets, potentially increasing their valuations [3] - In a context of loose liquidity and frequent supply disruptions, copper, aluminum, gold, and strategic metals are expected to maintain upward trends through 2026 [3] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing investors to capture the overall sector's beta performance [4] - Notable stocks in the commercial aerospace sector, such as Hai Liang Co., Yunnan Zhiye, and Xiamen Tungsten, have shown significant gains, with some reaching their daily limit [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the gold market is experiencing a significant upward trend due to rising geopolitical tensions and increasing fiscal debt, with gold prices potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce in the first half of the year [1] - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) has risen by 3.05%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Xiaocheng Technology (300139) up 6.03% and Shandong Gold (600547) up 5.97% [1] - HSBC's chief precious metals analyst, James Steel, indicates that the current surge in gold prices is driven by safe-haven buying and risk aversion, partly due to a weak dollar and policy uncertainties [1] Group 2 - The CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index comprises 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of gold industry stocks in mainland China and Hong Kong [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 63.58% of the total index, with major companies including Zijin Mining (601899) and Shandong Gold (600547) [2]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index at 26,158.21, up 0.02%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.06% and the National Enterprises Index rose by 0.04% [2] Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector is gaining momentum, with Asia Pacific Satellite seeing a surge of over 15% [1] - Domestic companies such as Blue Arrow Aerospace, Tianbing Technology, Xinghe Power, and Interstellar Glory are preparing for IPOs, marking 2026 as a significant year for private rocket enterprises in China [1] Gold Sector - Gold stocks are performing well, with Shandong Gold rising over 6% amid geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts supporting gold prices [3][4] - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices could reach $4,800 per ounce by Q4 2026, driven by declining interest rates and increased buying from central banks and funds [3] Solar Energy Sector - The solar energy sector is facing challenges, with GCL-Poly Energy dropping over 8% following a meeting with the Beijing market regulatory authority addressing monopoly risks and requiring corrective actions from companies [4][5] - Other solar companies also experienced declines, including Kamda Energy and Xinyi Solar, which fell by 4.35% and 3.10% respectively [5] New Listings - Three new stocks were listed today, with Rebo Bio-B rising over 28%, MINIMAX increasing by over 78%, and Jinxun Resources up by 22% [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the copper demand is expected to increase significantly due to growth in artificial intelligence and defense sectors, with a projected 50% rise by 2040, leading to a potential annual supply gap of over 10 million tons if recycling and mining efforts are not intensified [1] - The Zhongzheng Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) has seen a strong increase of 3.45%, with notable gains from individual stocks such as Xiamen Tungsten (600549) up 9.86%, Hailiang Co. (002203) up 7.91%, and Chihong Zn & Ge (600497) up 7.82% [1] - Tianfeng Securities indicates that the copper supply side is cautious with new expansions and high production costs, predicting a 2% growth in copper mine supply by 2026, while the smelting side faces historically low TC/RC levels, potentially limiting capacity utilization [1] Group 2 - The demand for copper is expected to grow by 3% due to economic recovery and the demand from AI-related equipment, resulting in a global supply-demand gap of approximately 630,000 tons [1] - The application of copper in data centers includes power transmission, signal transmission for high-speed data exchange between chips and systems, heat dissipation, and as a key material in semiconductor manufacturing [1] - The Nonferrous ETF Fund (159880) closely tracks the Zhongzheng Nonferrous Metals Industry Index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the nonferrous metals sector [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market saw a collective rise in gold stocks, with Shandong Gold increasing by over 6% [1] - Zhaojin Mining surged nearly 5%, reaching a new historical high price [1] - Zijin Mining rose by 3.6%, while Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining increased by 2.8% [1] Group 2 - Other gold companies such as Zijin Gold International, China Gold International, and Tongguan Gold also experienced gains [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant increase in the non-ferrous metal industry index and specific stocks, driven by a major mineral discovery in Xinjiang, which is expected to impact the market positively [1][2] - The non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) rose by 2.32%, with notable stock performances including Xiamen Tungsten (up 8.97%), Hailiang Co. (up 7.75%), and Chihong Zn & Ge (up 6.81%) [1] - The discovery of the Salt Lake 27 mineral group, with an average grade of 30.73%, marks the largest mineral find in the region in nearly 40 years, particularly for chromium ore, which is crucial for various high-tech industries [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities indicates that the tightening supply-demand dynamics will lead to higher price elasticity for aluminum, with expectations for stable price increases and sustained high profits in the electrolytic aluminum sector [2] - The electrolytic aluminum companies have passed their peak capital expenditure phase, suggesting a favorable environment for increased dividends and overall investment optimization in the sector [2] - The copper supply is projected to grow at 2% in 2026, with challenges in the smelting sector due to historically low TC/RC levels, which may limit production capacity [2] Group 3 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index account for 51.65% of the index, including major companies like Zijin Mining and China Aluminum [3]

Market Overview - On January 9, the A-share market experienced a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.55%, marking a return to the 4100-point level after ten years [1] - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a significant increase of over 2%, recovering from previous losses, with continuous capital inflow totaling over 370 million yuan on the day [1] - The Nonferrous 50 ETF has attracted over 500 million yuan in total over six consecutive days, bringing its latest scale to over 4.8 billion yuan, with financing balance reaching a new high since its inclusion in margin trading [1] Performance of Component Stocks - Most component stocks of the Nonferrous 50 ETF saw gains, with Luoyang Molybdenum rising over 4% and Shandong Gold nearly 4% [3] - Other notable performers included Zijin Mining, China Gold, and Yun Aluminum, which all increased by over 2% [3] Earnings Forecasts - As of January 9, three listed companies in the nonferrous sector have released earnings forecasts, all indicating over 10% growth in net profits [5] - Zijin Mining is expected to report a net profit between 5.1 billion to 5.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62% [6] Macro and Fundamental Analysis - The nonferrous sector is benefiting from a combination of macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics, with gold, silver, and copper prices trending upward [7] - Global geopolitical tensions are driving demand for strategic metals, with countries increasing their reserves of key materials to ensure military supply [8] - Supply disruptions in copper production, particularly in Chile and Ecuador, are expected to maintain upward pressure on copper prices [8] Investment Opportunities - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) is positioned to benefit from a super cycle in nonferrous metals, covering a wide range of metals including gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths [8] - The ETF has a high concentration of strategic metals, with the top five component stocks accounting for 38% of its total weight, indicating a strong focus on key commodities [10] Performance Metrics - The Nonferrous 50 ETF has shown superior cumulative returns since 2022, with a maximum drawdown lower than its peers, indicating a better investment experience [12] - The index's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio stands at 26.27, a 52% decrease compared to five years ago, suggesting a favorable valuation relative to its earnings growth [14]