Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Bright Dairy's ice cream and Shanghai Soap's Fenghua on May 20, 2025, marks a significant cross-industry partnership aimed at creating a unique cultural experience that blends urban memory with contemporary creativity [2][10]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event titled "Flower Blooms to See Brightness" takes place at the romantic landmark Sweet Love Road in Shanghai, showcasing a fusion of two iconic brands [2][5]. - The initiative aims to evoke emotional connections and social responsibility through immersive consumer experiences and cultural rituals [5][11]. Group 2: Creative Engagement - Three creative scenes at the event enhance consumer engagement, including a "Love Announcement Board" where participants can express their love messages, fostering social media interaction [7][11]. - The introduction of a unique "Cold Aroma Matrix" by Shanghai Soap allows consumers to experience a blend of ice cream and fragrance, enhancing brand memory and product experience [9][11]. Group 3: Brand Collaboration - The partnership represents a deep restructuring of the old brand ecosystem, focusing on customized products that cater to modern consumer experiences [11][13]. - The collaboration creates a closed-loop model of "IP empowerment - scene innovation - user sedimentation," enhancing market competitiveness for both brands [11][15]. Group 4: Cultural and Economic Impact - The cross-industry collaboration serves as a new practical example for revitalizing national brands, transforming historical heritage into experiential cultural symbols [13][15]. - The innovative approach of combining different product categories meets the demands of young consumers for personalized and engaging experiences [13][16]. Group 5: Future Directions - Bright Dairy plans to continue exploring the "national trend brand symbiosis" model, aiming to expand development opportunities for traditional brands [16].

Core Viewpoint - The dairy industry faced significant challenges in the past year, but Bright Dairy has managed to achieve its profit targets despite a decline in liquid milk revenue and overall market pressures [1][4]. Financial Performance - Bright Dairy reported a total revenue of 24.28 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 722 million yuan for the year 2024, meeting its profit goals [1]. - Revenue from liquid milk decreased by 9.47% year-on-year to 14.166 billion yuan, while other dairy products saw a 5.87% increase to 7.791 billion yuan [1]. - The company generated approximately 2.2 billion yuan from its livestock and other segments [1]. - Internationally, revenue from the investment in New Zealand's Newlite contributed 7.439 billion yuan, accounting for over 30% of total revenue [1]. Market Outlook - The chairman of Bright Dairy, Huang Liming, described the current dairy market as having both challenges and opportunities, with short-term impacts from raw milk price fluctuations and changing market demands [4]. - The company anticipates a total revenue target of 26.196 billion yuan and a net profit of 339 million yuan for the current year, aiming for a return on equity greater than 3.48% [4]. Strategic Initiatives - Bright Dairy plans to enhance profitability through various strategies across its operations, including improving milk production quality, optimizing production capacity, and leveraging technology in logistics [4]. - The company aims to maintain its market share in fresh milk, expand into instant retail channels, and explore the tea beverage raw milk market [4]. - In response to weak consumer demand, Bright Dairy is focusing on partnerships with B2B sectors, particularly in the restaurant and tea beverage industries, exemplified by its collaboration with MANNER Coffee [4][5]. Growth Plans - The management highlighted plans to continue promoting key products like Bright Youbei and Rushi, while also customizing dairy products for specific channels such as fresh tea drinks and baked goods [5]. - The company intends to penetrate the instant retail market and enhance the quality of traditional distribution channels to improve overall operational efficiency [5].

Core Insights - The dairy industry is experiencing a significant downturn in 2024, with 19 listed dairy companies in A-shares reporting a total revenue of 184.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.44% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders dropped from 13.10 billion yuan to 9.58 billion yuan, with 13 companies reporting a decline in net profit [1] - Key factors suppressing the dairy industry include oversupply, weakened demand, and high inventory levels, leading to a continuous decline in fresh milk prices and intensified competition [1] Revenue and Profitability - 14 out of 19 dairy companies reported a decline in revenue, compared to only 6 the previous year [1] - The median net profit margin for listed dairy companies was only 1.98%, down 2.01 percentage points from the previous year [4] - The highest net profit margins were recorded by Sunshine Dairy (21.84%), Panda Dairy (13.32%), and Huirong Technology (10.18%) [4] Gross Margin Analysis - 12 companies experienced a decline in gross margin, with the most significant drops seen in Western Pastoral, Beingmate, and Zhuangyuan Pastoral [3] - The median gross margin for the 19 listed dairy companies was 25.31%, an increase of 2.18 percentage points from the previous year [2] - Seven companies saw an increase in gross margin, with the most notable improvements from Junyao Health, Huangshi Group, Panda Dairy, and Pinwa Food [2] Market Trends - The dairy industry index has seen a decline of over 50% from its peak in January 2021 to the low in September 2024, but there has been a noticeable increase since September 2024 [1] - The market anticipates that upstream destocking will lead to a bottoming out of raw milk prices, alongside policies promoting fertility to boost demand [1] Company-Specific Performance - Panda Dairy, a leader in the condensed milk segment, reported a revenue decline of 19.29% last year, with a further 8.27% drop in the first quarter of 2024, despite an increase in gross margin due to lower raw material costs [2] - Bright Dairy, a typical regional dairy company, has seen a decline in revenue since 2022, with a low gross margin of around 19%, significantly below that of Yili [5]

Core Viewpoint - The dairy industry is experiencing a significant downturn in 2024, with a notable decline in revenue and profit across many companies, attributed to oversupply, weakened demand, and high inventory levels [1][2][3]. Industry Overview - In 2023, 19 dairy companies in A-shares reported a total revenue of 184.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.44%. 14 companies experienced revenue declines, compared to only 6 the previous year [1]. - The total net profit for these companies fell from 13.10 billion yuan to 9.58 billion yuan, with 13 companies reporting profit declines [1]. - The dairy industry has faced a continuous decline in raw milk prices since 2021, with the dairy index dropping over 50% from its peak in January 2021 to its low in September 2024 [1]. Company Performance - Yili Group remains the dominant player in the industry, with a revenue of 115.78 billion yuan, followed by Bright Dairy, New Hope Dairy, and San Yuan Dairy, with revenues of 24.28 billion yuan, 10.67 billion yuan, and 7.01 billion yuan, respectively [1]. - The revenue of Yili Group decreased by 8.24%, while Bright Dairy and San Yuan Dairy saw declines of 8.33% and 10.73%, respectively [2][6]. - The number of companies with revenue declines increased from 6 to 14, indicating that nearly 74% of dairy companies faced revenue drops, with a median decline of 10.75% [3]. Notable Declines - The five companies with the most significant revenue declines include Huangshi Group, Pinwa Food, Panda Dairy, Jiahe Food, and Xibu Dairy, all of which have revenues below 2.5 billion yuan [3]. - Huangshi Group's revenue dropped significantly due to the transfer of its subsidiaries and ongoing diversification efforts that have not yielded expected returns [3]. - Pinwa Food, primarily an imported food company, reported a 24.9% decrease in revenue, while Panda Dairy faced overall product declines due to weak consumer demand [4]. Growth Opportunities - Five dairy companies reported revenue growth, including Huirong Technology, Beingmate, Yiming Food, Tianrun Dairy, and Knight Dairy, with Huirong Technology showing the highest growth due to its focus on plant-based and dairy fats [5]. - Beingmate, specializing in infant formula and nutritional products, achieved a revenue increase of 9.7%, although its gross margin declined due to increased sales discounts [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the company's performance is under pressure due to weak demand in 2024, but there is potential for marginal improvement in 2025 [1][6] - The company is expected to face challenges in the short term due to a competitive environment and declining liquid milk demand, but it maintains a strong market position in the low-temperature fresh milk segment [7][6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 24,278 million, a decrease of 8.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 722 million, down 25.4% year-on-year [6][9] - For 2025, the company is expected to generate revenue of 24,667 million, with a slight increase of 1.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 336 million, reflecting a significant decline of 53.4% year-on-year [6][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.24, with a projected gross margin of 19.4% [6][9] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve gradually from 1.5% in 2025 to 5.6% by 2027 [6] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company's revenue from dairy products, livestock, and others is expected to be 219.57 billion, 10.23 billion, and 11.77 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -4.56%, -41.74%, and -14.98% [7] - The liquid milk segment is projected to generate 141.66 billion in revenue, down 9.47% year-on-year, while other dairy products are expected to grow by 5.87% [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on product development around nutrition and health, enhancing its market position through both online and offline marketing strategies [7] - The report highlights the company's efforts to maintain its leading position in the market despite competitive pressures, with expectations of improved revenue and profit as the supply-demand balance in the upstream raw milk market stabilizes [7]

2025 年 5 月 6 日 公司研究 经营持续调整，资产处置收益增厚 24Q4 利润 ——光明乳业（600597.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：光明乳业发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报，2024 全年实现营业收入 242.78 亿元，同比-8.33%；归母净利润 7.22 亿元，同比-25.36%；扣非归母净 利润 1.70 亿元，同比-67.48%。其中，24Q4 单季度实现营业收入 58.65 亿元， 同比+0.75%；归母净利润 6.06 亿元，同比-6.04%；扣非归母净亏损 0.43 亿元， 23 年同期为 2.11 亿元。25Q1 实现营业收入 63.68 亿元，同比-0.76%；归母净 利润 1.41 亿元，同比-18.16%；扣非归母净利润 1.90 亿元，同比+2.45%。 液态奶 25Q1 收入降幅环比收窄，饲料业务短期承压。分产品看，25Q1 液态奶/ 其他乳制品/牧业产品分别实现收入 32.92/24.15/2.11 亿元，同比-6.32%/ +11.10%/-55.40%。液态奶 25Q1 收入同比降幅环比收窄，牧业收入下降主要系 饲料业 ...

国内头部乳企正在把突围的方向转向下沉市场和产品功能化转型。 在经历了2024年的整体降速之后，2025年一季度乳制品行业终于有了回暖的迹象。在今日举行的业绩说明会上，伊利股份（600887.SH）董事长兼总裁潘刚 表示，乳制品行业最艰难的时刻已经过去，当前市场仍处于弱复苏状态。第一财经记者了解到，在连续两年增速下滑后，国内头部乳企正将突围的方向转向 下沉市场和产品功能化转型。 乳业最难时刻已过去 根据已公布的2024年财报显示，乳业前三甲企业伊利股份、蒙牛乳业（02319.HK）、光明乳业（600597.SH）全年营收分别为1158亿元、886.7亿元和242.8 亿元，收入规模普遍出现8%-10%的同比下降。 从单季表现看，业绩波动主要集中在2024年的二、三季度，自第四季度起，各乳企的营收跌幅逐步收窄，到2025年第一季度已有明显改善。 潘刚在业绩会上表示，这一变化主要与公司2024年二季度启动的战略调整有关。2024年初，由于供需矛盾积累，伊利管理层注意到经销商库存在增加，随即 采取了促动销、去库存等系列措施，到第三季度时市场已经逐步恢复，到2025年春节市场已回归健康状态。 财报显示，伊利2025年一 ...

证券研究报告 光明乳业 (600597 CH) 坚守"新鲜战略"，期待后续改善 华泰研究 年报点评 2025 年 4 月 30 日│中国内地 食品 坚守"新鲜战略"，期待后续改善 24 年实现收入/归母/扣非净利 242.8/7.2/1.7 亿，同比-8.3%/-25.4%/-67.5%； 其中 24Q4 实现收入/归母/扣非净利 58.6/6.1/-0.4 亿，同比+0.8%/-6.0%/转 亏，非经常性损益中主要为淘汰牛损失（致 24 年营业外支出 3.2 亿）。25Q1 实现收入/归母/扣非净利 63.7/1.4/1.9 亿，同比-0.8%/-18.2%/+2.5%。收入 端，24 年液态奶业务持续承压，牧业产品对整体拖累较多；利润端，24 年 公司扣非净利率同比-1.3pct 至 0.7%，25Q1 同比+0.1pct 至 3.0%。展望来 看，消费需求仍处于缓慢复苏阶段，公司继续坚守"新鲜战略"，加速推进 低温奶全国化布局，期待后续收入改善；利润端，公司持续优化销售费用管 控，毛销差有望进一步提升，伴随原奶周期走向供需平衡，25 年淘汰牛损 失有望同比减少，维持"增持"评级。 液态奶业务压力仍存，牧 ...

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