Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 10.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.597 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.06% [1] - The sales expense ratio decreased, and cost improvements were realized, contributing to a net profit margin increase of 2.2 percentage points to 16% [3] - Despite a high base, the company maintains an upward trend in the proportion of mid-to-high-end products, indicating a positive structural upgrade [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 sales volume was 2.184 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%, while the revenue per ton increased by 2.6% [2] - The main brand's sales volume was 1.322 million kiloliters, down 5.6%, but its market share increased by 1.2 percentage points to 60.5% [2] - The company expects revenue growth rates of 4%, 3%, and 3% for 2024-2026, with net profit growth rates of 18%, 15%, and 12% respectively [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 35.19 billion yuan, 36.41 billion yuan, and 37.56 billion yuan respectively [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 5.02 billion yuan, 5.75 billion yuan, and 6.42 billion yuan respectively [4] - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 24X, 21X, and 19X respectively [3] Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of 61.78 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 61.39 billion yuan [5] - The current price of the stock is 87.12 yuan, with a 52-week high of 112.15 yuan and a low of 67.56 yuan [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Qingdao Beer [4][6][15]. Core Views - Qingdao Beer faced challenges in sales and revenue compared to peers, with a 7.6% year-on-year decline in sales volume in Q1 2024, while the average selling price increased by 2.6%, indicating a slowdown in product structure improvement [4][10]. - The company's gross margin improved due to a 1.0% decrease in unit cost and a 12% reduction in sales expenses, leading to a 10% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders [4][10]. - The report expresses caution regarding the sustainability of product structure upgrades and cost reduction trends in 2024, given the weak performance in mid-to-high-end products [4][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 34,756 million, reflecting a 2.4% year-on-year increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 5,006 million, a 17.3% increase [9][11]. - The report adjusts the target price for Qingdao Beer A-shares to RMB 86.2 and H-shares to HKD 65.1, based on a valuation of 15x and 10x EV/EBITDA for 2024, respectively [4][6][15]. - Key financial metrics include a projected PE ratio of 23.7 for A-shares and 14.8 for H-shares in 2024 [9][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is maintained at "Add" [1][8]. Core Views - In Q1 2024, the company experienced a decline in revenue due to pressure on product sales, but net profit increased. The revenue for Q1 2024 was 10.15 billion yuan, down 5.19% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.597 billion yuan, up 10.06% year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin and net margin both improved, with the gross margin at 40.44%, up 2.12 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin at 15.99%, up 2.23 percentage points year-on-year. This improvement is attributed to a decrease in raw material costs and an ongoing optimization of the product mix [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in on-premise consumption and a decrease in raw material costs, indicating potential for profit improvement in the short term. As a leading domestic beer brand, Qingdao Beer has significant brand value and is accelerating its expansion into the high-end market, which is expected to drive price increases in the future [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, beer sales volume decreased by 7.58% year-on-year to 2.184 million kiloliters, with the main brand's sales down 5.64% to 1.322 million kiloliters. The sales of mid-to-high-end products decreased by 2.44% to 960,000 kiloliters, while other brands saw a decline of 10.40% to 862,000 kiloliters [2]. - The company forecasts revenue for 2024 to be 36.38 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.20%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 4.991 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 16.95% [3][6]. Profitability Metrics - The sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, and R&D expense ratio for Q1 2024 were 12.83%, 3.40%, and 0.18%, respectively, showing a decrease in sales expenses and a slight increase in management and R&D expenses [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 3.66 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22, 20, and 18 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.6 billion yuan, an increase of 10.1% [3] - The company has shown resilience in profit performance, exceeding previous expectations due to cost benefits and continuous efficiency improvements [5][6] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company achieved a sales volume of 2.184 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%, with an average price per ton of 4,647.4 yuan, an increase of 2.5% [4] - The main brand, Qingdao Beer, and other brands had sales volumes of 1.322 million tons and 0.862 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 5.6% and 10.4% [4] - The company’s gross profit margin improved to 40.4%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix upgrades and reduced cost pressures [5] Cost and Efficiency Improvements - The overall expense ratio for the company was 15.0%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a reduction in sales expenses [5] - The net profit margin and the net profit margin excluding non-recurring items were 15.7% and 13.6%, respectively, both showing increases of 2.2 and 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [5] Future Outlook - The sales peak for the beer industry typically occurs in Q2 and Q3, which account for 60-70% of annual revenue, making upcoming sales critical for the company's performance [6] - Anticipated events such as the Olympics and the European Cup are expected to boost beer sales, leading to a positive outlook for the company's performance in the upcoming quarters [6] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 35.707 billion yuan, 37.436 billion yuan, and 38.857 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 3.59 yuan, 3.97 yuan, and 4.34 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23, 21, and 19 [7][9]

证券研究报告 | 2024年05月05日 青岛啤酒（600600.SH） 买入 高基数压制销量增速，成本下行红利释放 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 公司公布2024年第一季度报告，2024年第一季度，公司实现营业总收入101.50亿 食品饮料·非白酒 元，同比-5.19%；实现归母净利润15.97亿元，同比+10.06%；实现扣非归母净利润 证券分析师：张向伟 证券分析师：杨苑 15.13亿元，同比+12.11%。收入增长承压，盈利能力改善较多。 021-60933131 021-60933124 zhangxiangwei@guosen.com.cnyangyuan4@guosen.com.cn S0980523090001 S0980523090003 去年同期高基数压制销量增速，产品结构升级延续。第一季度，公司营业收入同比 基础数据 -5.2%，拆分量价来看，销量同比-7.5%，主要受到去年同期高基数、春节后啤酒消费 转淡的影响。虽总销量承压，但销量结构仍有提升，青岛主品牌销量占比提升至60.5% 投资评级 买入(维持) 合理估值 （同比+1.2pct），其中中高端以上产品销量占比提升至44.0%（同比 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 120.50, while the current price is 81.96 [2][9]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's performance exceeded expectations, with a structural upgrade continuing and a recovery in market conditions anticipated. The profit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is expected to be around 15% from 2024 to 2026, maintaining the "Buy" rating [7][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.15 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.51 billion, an increase of 12.1% year-on-year. The revenue met expectations, but profits exceeded them [7]. - The company announced a dividend of 1.8 per share for 2023, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 64% for 2024, corresponding to a dividend yield of 2.9% [7]. Sales and Pricing - In Q1 2024, the company sold 2.18 million kiloliters, a decline of 7.6% year-on-year, while the price per ton increased by 2.6%. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in sales starting from Q2 2024, with an overall target for 2024 to achieve flat to positive growth in sales volume [7][9]. Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for Q1 2024 reached a historical high of 40.4%, up by 2.12 percentage points year-on-year, with a decrease in ton cost by 1.0%. The report maintains the profit growth forecast for 2024 at 17% [7][9]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 3.66, 4.16, and 4.71 respectively, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22x for 2024 [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer (600600) [1][3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.15 billion yuan in Q1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.597 billion yuan, an increase of 10.1% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations [2] - Q1 beer sales volume was 2.184 million tons, down 7.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year and slow recovery in restaurant consumption [2] - The company continues to see an improvement in profitability, with a gross margin of 40.4%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product mix improvement and declining raw material costs [2] - The strategic upgrade of products is ongoing, with a new "1+1+1+2+N" strategy enhancing the positioning of white beer and fresh beer, contributing to a favorable trend in product structure [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue: 10.15 billion yuan, down 5.2% YoY - Q1 2024 net profit: 1.597 billion yuan, up 10.1% YoY - Q1 2024 beer sales volume: 2.184 million tons, down 7.6% YoY - Q1 2024 gross margin: 40.4%, up 2.1 percentage points YoY - Q1 2024 net profit margin: 16%, up 2.2 percentage points YoY [2][4] Future Outlook - The company expects a low base effect to manifest starting in May, with the upcoming Olympic Games and UEFA European Championship providing additional market stimulus [2] - The ongoing cost decline in barley and packaging materials is anticipated to continue releasing profit elasticity [2] - EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 are 3.60 yuan, 4.16 yuan, and 4.79 yuan, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 22x, 19x, and 17x [3][4]

证券研究报告：食品饮料 | 公司点评报告 2024年5月5日 股票投资评级 青岛啤酒(600600) 买入|维持 Q1 结构升级趋势延续，24 年旺季表现值得期待 个股表现 ⚫ 事件 公司 2023 年实现营业收入/归母净利润/扣非净利润 青岛啤酒 食品饮料 339.37/42.68/37.21亿元，同比5.49%/15.02%/15.94%。公司单Q4实 -2% -6% 现营业收入/归母净利润/扣非净利润29.58/-6.40/-8.76亿元，同比 -10% -3.37%/15.01%/34.53%。公司2024年Q1实现营业总收入/归母净利 -14% -18% 润 / 扣 非 归 母 净 利 润 101.50/15.97/15.13 亿 元 ， 同 比 - -22% -26% 5.19%/10.06%/12.11%。收入利润符合预期。 -30% -34% -38% ⚫ 核心要点 2023-05 2023-07 2023-09 2023-12 2024-02 2024-04 2023 全年业务拆分：（1）拆分量价来看，2023 年公司实现销量 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 800.7 万吨，同比-0.78 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年05月05日 青岛啤酒（600600.SH） 买入 高基数压制销量增速，成本下行红利释放 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 公司公布2024年第一季度报告，2024年第一季度，公司实现营业总收入101.50亿 食品饮料·非白酒 元，同比-5.19%；实现归母净利润15.97亿元，同比+10.06%；实现扣非归母净利润 证券分析师：张向伟 证券分析师：杨苑 15.13亿元，同比+12.11%。收入增长承压，盈利能力改善较多。 021-60933131 021-60933124 zhangxiangwei@guosen.com.cnyangyuan4@guosen.com.cn S0980523090001 S0980523090003 去年同期高基数压制销量增速，产品结构升级延续。第一季度，公司营业收入同比 基础数据 -5.2%，拆分量价来看，销量同比-7.5%，主要受到去年同期高基数、春节后啤酒消费 转淡的影响。虽总销量承压，但销量结构仍有提升，青岛主品牌销量占比提升至60.5% 投资评级 买入(维持) 合理估值 （同比+1.2pct），其中中高端以上产品销量占比提升至44.0%（同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, with a target price of 81.96 yuan [2][6] Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit for Q1 2024 showed steady growth, with revenue reaching 10.15 billion yuan (+5.19% YoY), net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.597 billion yuan (+10.06% YoY), and adjusted net profit of 1.513 billion yuan (+12.11% YoY) [1] - Despite a slight pressure on sales volume due to a high base in Q1 2023, the company maintained a steady pace of product structure upgrading, with mid-to-high-end products accounting for an increasing proportion of sales [1] - Cost reductions and improved pricing power contributed to a significant increase in gross margin, which rose by 2.12 percentage points YoY to 40.44% in Q1 2024 [1] - The company's revenue is expected to accelerate in Q2 2024 as the beer season approaches, with market investment activities and a lower sales base [1] - The report forecasts revenue growth of 4.3%/4.1%/3.9% for 2024-2026, with net profit growth of 17.9%/14.6%/12.4% over the same period [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 35.396 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.031 billion yuan [2] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 38.66% in 2023A to 44.18% in 2026E, driven by cost reductions and product structure upgrades [4] - ROE is forecasted to increase from 15.55% in 2023A to 18.67% in 2026E, reflecting improved profitability [4] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decline from 26x in 2023A to 17x in 2026E, indicating potential undervaluation [4] Industry and Market Outlook - The beer industry in China is in a favorable competitive stage, with significant room for premiumization driven by both supply and demand factors [1] - The 8-10 yuan price segment shows strong demand, and the company's flagship product, Classic, is well-positioned to capture market share in core markets [1] - The company's revenue resilience and cost advantages are expected to support stable performance, with a focus on the recovery of on-premise consumption channels [1] Valuation and Projections - The report projects EPS of 3.69/4.22/4.75 yuan for 2024-2026, with a corresponding PE ratio of 22/19/17x [2][4] - The company's PB ratio is expected to decline from 4.1x in 2023A to 3.2x in 2026E, reflecting improved asset efficiency [4] - EV/EBITDA is forecasted to decrease from 15.15x in 2023A to 10.09x in 2026E, indicating improved valuation attractiveness [4]