股票简称：老凤祥 股票代码：600612 编号：临 2024-032 老凤祥 B 900905 老凤祥股份有限公司 关于办公地址变更的公告 除上述变更外，公司联系电话、传真、电子信箱及注册地址等其他基本信息 均保持不变。本次变更后公司最新联系方式如下： 1.办公地址：上海市徐汇区凯旋路 2588 号-6 临 2.联系电话：021-54480605 3.邮政编码：200030 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 为了加快推动工业上楼，打造新型智造空间，老凤祥股份有限公司（以下简 称"公司"）将启动上海市漕溪路园区改造工程。为此，公司办公地址于即日起 由"上海市徐汇区漕溪路 270 号"搬迁至"上海市徐汇区凯旋路 2588 号-6 临"， 邮政编码由"200235"变更为"200030"。 4.传真：021-54481529 5.电子信箱：lfx600612@lfxgf.com。 以上变更信息自本公告日起正式启用，敬请广大投资者关注以上信息变更， 若由此给您带来不便，敬请谅解。 特此公告。 老凤祥股份有限公司 2 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [3][5] - Target price adjusted to 61.12 RMB (previously 70.50 RMB) [3][5] Core Views - Performance below expectations due to high gold prices impacting terminal sales and franchisee purchasing willingness [2][3] - Gross margin under pressure due to increased discounts and higher proportion of gold bars in sales [3] - Revenue for Q3 2024 was 126.23 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 41.89% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was 3.72 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 46.2% [3] - State-owned enterprise reforms are progressing, with potential for performance elasticity [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 525.82 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 15.28% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 was 17.76 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 9.60% [3] - Gross margin for Q3 2024 was 6.52%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points [3] - Net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 2.95%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points [3] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 3.82/4.21/4.57 RMB, down from previous estimates of 4.70/5.20/5.70 RMB [3] Sales and Profitability - Sales structure and promotional discounts have put pressure on gross margins [3] - Operating expense ratio increased by 1.03 percentage points to 2.61% in Q3 2024 [3] - Sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratios increased by +0.27pct/+0.60pct/+0.03pct/+0.14pct respectively [3] State-Owned Enterprise Reforms - The company is advancing comprehensive reforms under the "Double Hundred Action" initiative [3] - Implementation of a professional manager system is expected to enhance performance elasticity [3] Market and Valuation - Current stock price is 49.15 RMB [5] - 52-week price range is 47.10-86.19 RMB [6] - Market capitalization is 25.711 billion RMB [6] - PE ratio for 2024 is 12.87x, with a PB ratio of 2.01x [10] Industry Comparison - Comparable companies include China Gold, Caibai, Laopu Gold, and Mankalun, with an average 2024 PE of 20.44x [11] - The company's 2024 PE valuation is set at 16x, lower than the industry average [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company, with a target price of 57.12 CNY over the next six months, corresponding to a 15x PE for 2024 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 52.582 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 15.28% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.776 billion CNY, down 9.60% [3]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 12.623 billion CNY, a significant decline of 41.89%, and a net profit of 372 million CNY, down 46.20%, primarily due to a decrease in gold jewelry consumption caused by rising gold prices [3]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 8.56%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 3.38%, up 0.21 percentage points [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 8.56% and a net profit margin of 3.38% [4]. - The Q3 gross margin was 6.52%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 2.95%, down 0.24 percentage points [4]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 63.383 billion CNY, 67.590 billion CNY, and 73.163 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a projected net profit of 1.992 billion CNY, 2.201 billion CNY, and 2.442 billion CNY for the same years [6][12]. Market Activities and Innovations - The company participated in significant events showcasing its brand heritage and innovative spirit, including the Hong Kong Jewelry Exhibition and the International Jewelry Culture Festival in Shanghai [5]. - It launched various products, including customized gold jewelry in collaboration with popular anime characters, demonstrating its commitment to innovation [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company's Q3 revenue growth is under pressure, with a significant decline in terminal sales. The report highlights that the gold jewelry consumption remains weak due to high gold prices and seasonal factors, leading to a decrease in sales volume [4]. - The report notes that the company's gross margin has declined, impacting profit performance, primarily due to an increase in the sales proportion of investment gold bars and adjustments in wholesale pricing [4]. - The company is actively innovating and expanding its brand influence through collaborations, such as the partnership with Bandai Namco to launch a limited edition gold Gundam series, which has received positive market feedback [4]. - The report projects a recovery in consumer sentiment as the peak sales season for gold jewelry approaches, which may help to alleviate the current decline in terminal sales [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 52,582 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1,776 million yuan, down 9.6% year-on-year [5]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 8.56%, showing a slight increase of 0.44 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 gross margin was 6.52%, down 0.98 percentage points year-on-year [4][5]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 2,058 million yuan, 2,261 million yuan, and 2,440 million yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 12, and 11 [4]. Market Context - The report indicates that gold jewelry consumption in China for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 400 tons, a decrease of 27.53% year-on-year, while gold bars and coins consumption increased by 27.14% to 283 tons [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming peak sales season for gold jewelry, which may help to improve terminal sales and reduce the current decline in consumer demand [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 68.04 CNY based on an 18x PE valuation for 2024 [2][3] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 52.582 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 15.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.78 billion CNY, down 9.6%. In Q3 alone, revenue and net profit fell by 41.9% and 46.2% respectively, which was below market expectations [1] - High gold prices have suppressed end-user demand, with SGE gold T+D prices reaching 595.2 CNY per gram by the end of September 2024, marking an increase of 8.3% since early July and 24% since early January. This has led to a noticeable wait-and-see attitude among consumers, resulting in decreased enthusiasm among distributors [1] - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 decreased by 1 percentage point to 6.5%, attributed to a higher proportion of revenue from gold trading and the company's decision to offer discounts to distributors. Selling and administrative expense ratios increased by 0.3 and 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, likely due to slower revenue growth [1] - The inventory turnover days for the first three quarters were 53 days, a decrease of 3 days year-on-year. The net cash inflow from operating activities in Q3 2024 was 1.43 billion CNY, compared to a net outflow in the same period last year [1] - Looking ahead, the report anticipates that as gold prices stabilize, end-user consumption demand is expected to gradually recover. The company is seen to have long-term competitive advantages due to its "century-old brand heritage and quality distributor resources," and internal operational improvements are expected to further enhance operational potential [1] Financial Forecast and Adjustments - Based on the Q3 report, the earnings forecast has been adjusted, with expected earnings per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 projected at 3.78 CNY, 4.37 CNY, and 4.88 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates of 4.49 CNY, 4.94 CNY, and 5.47 CNY [2][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company [3][5] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was impacted by high gold prices, leading to a decline in terminal consumption and a year-on-year drop in profits [2][3] - The company's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 was RMB 52.582 billion, down 15.28% YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company at RMB 1.776 billion, down 9.60% YoY [3] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was RMB 12.623 billion, down 41.89% YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company at RMB 372 million, down 46.20% YoY [3] - The company's gross margin narrowed and expense ratios increased in Q3 2024, leading to a decline in net profit margin [3] - The company's product craftsmanship, channel expansion, and brand potential continue to improve, with a "five-in-one" marketing model and a deep marketing network [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 62.851 billion, RMB 68.073 billion, and RMB 73.315 billion in 2024-2026, with YoY growth rates of -12.0%, +8.3%, and +7.7%, respectively [3] Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 was RMB 71.436 billion, with a growth rate of 13.4%, and is expected to decline by 12.0% in 2024 [4][6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 was RMB 2.214 billion, with a growth rate of 30.2%, and is expected to decline by 8.7% in 2024 [4][6] - The company's EPS in 2023 was RMB 4.23, and is expected to be RMB 3.86 in 2024 [4][6] - The company's PE ratio in 2023 was 12, and is expected to be 13 in 2024 [4][6] - The company's PB ratio in 2023 was 2.3, and is expected to be 2.1 in 2024 [4][6] Industry Overview - In Q1-Q3 2024, national gold consumption was 741.73 tons, down 11.18% YoY, with gold jewelry consumption at 400.04 tons, down 27.53% YoY [3] - Gold bar and coin consumption in Q1-Q3 2024 was 282.72 tons, up 27.14% YoY, driven by the rapid development of e-commerce models such as live streaming and instant retail [3] - In Q3 2024, gold prices remained high and volatile, leading to a decline in physical gold consumption, while gold bar and coin consumption continued to grow significantly [3] Product and Channel Strategy - The company's "gold and silver fine workmanship" is exquisite, with product design showcasing "unique craftsmanship" [3] - The company employs a "five-in-one" marketing model, with a deep marketing network layout, focusing on self-operated silver buildings, joint ventures, general distributors, dealers, and specialty stores [3] - The company leverages its "century-old golden brand" to continuously enhance brand potential, with a complete industrial chain from source procurement to design, production, and sales [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][3]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 2024, with revenue down 42% to 12.6 billion yuan and net profit down 46% to 370 million yuan due to fluctuations in the consumer environment and high gold prices [1]. - Despite the challenging market conditions, the company is actively expanding its market presence and enhancing its R&D capabilities, opening 28 new stores in the first half of 2024 [2]. - The company’s operational efficiency remains robust, with a significant reduction in accounts receivable and inventory levels, indicating effective cash flow management [2]. - Looking ahead, the company is expected to see an overall decline in performance for 2024, with a projected net profit of 2 billion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 to Q3 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 52.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.3%, and a net profit of 1.78 billion yuan, down 9.6% [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 decreased by 1 percentage point to 6.5%, while the net profit margin fell by 0.2 percentage points to 2.9% [1]. Market Expansion and R&D - The company has opened 28 new stores, bringing the total to 6022, and is focusing on themed stores and specialized supply meetings to boost sales [2]. - The establishment of the Hainan Creative Center is expected to enhance the company's R&D capabilities and support its international market entry [2]. Cash Flow and Inventory Management - As of Q3 2024, accounts receivable decreased by 55% to 2.94 billion yuan, and inventory decreased by 8% to 6.55 billion yuan, indicating improved cash flow management [2]. - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was 6.55 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.4% decline year-on-year, consistent with revenue and profit trends [2]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 2.028 billion yuan, 2.269 billion yuan, and 2.431 billion yuan respectively, with a projected P/E ratio of 15 times for 2024 [3][4].

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for Q3 2024 was ¥12,622,782,772.87, a decrease of 41.89% compared to the same period last year[2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was ¥372,048,105.36, down 46.20% year-on-year[2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was ¥238,699,442.98, a decline of 65.25% compared to the previous year[2] - The basic earnings per share for Q3 2024 was ¥0.7112, reflecting a decrease of 46.20% year-on-year[3] - Total operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 52,581,666,118.68, a decrease of 15.1% compared to CNY 62,066,041,294.97 in the same period of 2023[17] - Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company for Q3 2024 was CNY 1,775,857,661.63, down 9.6% from CNY 1,964,467,157.75 in Q3 2023[20] - Operating profit for Q3 2024 was CNY 3,043,749,740.38, a decrease of 13.4% compared to CNY 3,515,169,206.20 in Q3 2023[19] - Total comprehensive income for Q3 2024 was CNY 2,286,958,974.86, compared to CNY 2,615,338,353.44 in Q3 2023, reflecting a decrease of 12.5%[20] - Basic earnings per share for Q3 2024 were CNY 3.3948, down from CNY 3.7553 in Q3 2023[20] Assets and Liabilities - The total assets at the end of the reporting period were ¥24,192,204,243.72, a slight decrease of 0.58% from the end of the previous year[3] - Current assets totaled CNY 22,806,669,219.33 as of September 30, 2024, down from CNY 23,046,413,650.11 at the end of 2023, reflecting a decrease of 1.04%[15] - The company's total assets stood at CNY 24,192,204,243.72, slightly down from CNY 24,333,847,842.95[16] - Total liabilities decreased to CNY 9,696,656,335.08 from CNY 10,598,757,357.73, a decline of 8.5%[17] - The company's long-term borrowings decreased by 100.00%, with a reduction of 200,000,000.00 CNY compared to the beginning of the period[9] - Short-term borrowings decreased to CNY 5,062,576,487.69 from CNY 5,623,680,265.82, a reduction of 10%[16] Cash Flow - Cash flow from operating activities for the year-to-date was ¥6,547,144,308.94, down 8.36% compared to the previous year[3] - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first nine months of 2024 was CNY 6,547,144,308.94, down 8.3% from CNY 7,144,077,822.02 in the same period of 2023[22] - The company's cash flow from investing activities decreased by 175.86%, with a reduction of 99,723,823.91 CNY compared to the same period last year[10] - The company's cash flow from financing activities decreased by 79.45%, amounting to a reduction of 1,442,786,113.48 CNY compared to the same period last year[10] - The net cash flow from investing activities was -$156.43 million, compared to -$56.71 million in the previous period, indicating a significant increase in cash outflow for investments[23] - Cash inflow from financing activities totaled $11.76 billion, up from $8.60 billion year-over-year, reflecting increased borrowing[23] - Cash outflow for debt repayment was $13.22 billion, compared to $8.89 billion in the previous period, showing a substantial rise in debt servicing costs[23] - The net cash flow from financing activities was -$3.26 billion, worsening from -$1.82 billion year-over-year, indicating higher financial strain[23] - The ending cash and cash equivalents balance increased to $12.44 billion, up from $10.87 billion in the previous period, demonstrating improved liquidity[23] - The total cash and cash equivalents increased by $3.13 billion during the period, compared to an increase of $5.29 billion in the prior year[23] Other Financial Metrics - Cash and cash equivalents increased by ¥3,121,639,629.77, representing a growth of 33.50%[7] - Accounts receivable increased by ¥2,623,419,057.72, a significant rise of 832.14%[7] - Inventory decreased by ¥5,775,142,003.73, a decline of 46.85%[7] - Other income for the current period increased by 1239.92%, amounting to an increase of 189,144,792.76 CNY, primarily due to increased government subsidies received by a subsidiary[9] - The company's credit impairment losses increased by 834.67%, amounting to an increase of 127,839,785.41 CNY compared to the same period last year[9] - The company's other comprehensive income increased by 31.01%, with an increase of 1,243,550.13 CNY compared to the beginning of the period[9] - The company's asset disposal income increased by 1100.85%, amounting to an increase of 7,359,569.91 CNY, primarily due to increased relocation income from a subsidiary[9] - Research and development expenses for Q3 2024 were CNY 25,989,667.51, slightly down from CNY 26,570,530.78 in Q3 2023[19] - Total operating costs for Q3 2024 were CNY 49,529,761,421.46, a decrease of 15.3% from CNY 58,502,267,341.38 in Q3 2023[19] - The company reported a decrease in sales expenses to CNY 683,297,811.91 in Q3 2024 from CNY 759,624,509.39 in Q3 2023, a reduction of 10.0%[19] - Other comprehensive income after tax for Q3 2024 was CNY 4,622,657.37, compared to a loss of CNY 10,233,397.49 in Q3 2023[20] Accounting and Reporting - The company did not adopt new accounting standards for the current reporting period, maintaining consistency in financial reporting[24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In Q3 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 46.2% year-on-year, with total revenue for the first three quarters at 52.582 billion yuan, down 15.28% year-on-year [2] - The increase in gold prices has affected the cash flow from franchisees, leading to a slight decline in gross and net profit margins [2] - The company plans to invest 840 million yuan in the Caoxi Road project, which aims to enhance its brand image and operational environment [3] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 downwards due to demand suppression from rising gold prices, but maintains a "Buy" rating as the stock is considered undervalued [4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported total revenue of 12.623 billion yuan, a decrease of 41.89% year-on-year, and a net profit of 372 million yuan, down 46.2% year-on-year [2] - The overall gross margin for Q3 was 6.52%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 3.68%, down 0.57 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company's revenue forecast for 2024 is 66.434 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 2.036 billion yuan [4] Investment and Valuation Metrics - The latest closing price gives a P/E ratio of 14.40 for 2024, 13.05 for 2025, and 11.93 for 2026 [1][4] - The company's market capitalization is approximately 29.326 billion yuan, with a circulating A-share market value of about 17.777 billion yuan [6] - The company has a book value per share of 23.57 yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 40.08% [7]

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was under significant pressure, with revenue and net profit declining by 15.3% and 9.6% YoY respectively [1] - Gold price fluctuations and weak consumer demand were the core factors affecting sales [1] - The company's brand heritage and state-owned enterprise reforms are expected to drive recovery, with reasonable valuation supporting the "Buy" rating [1] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue: 52.582 billion yuan (-15.3% YoY), net profit: 1.776 billion yuan (-9.6% YoY) [1] - Q3 2024 revenue: 12.623 billion yuan (-41.9% YoY), net profit: 372 million yuan (-46.2% YoY) [1] - 2024-2026 net profit forecast revised down to 2.024/2.180/2.388 billion yuan from 2.435/2.693/2.974 billion yuan [1] - Q1-Q3 2024 gross margin: 8.6% (+0.4pct YoY), Q3 gross margin: 6.5% (-1.0pct YoY) [2] - Q1-Q3 2024 net margin: 4.3% (+0.1pct YoY), Q3 net margin: 3.7% (-0.6pct YoY) [2] Industry and Market Conditions - July-September 2024 gold and jewelry retail sales declined by 10.4%/12.0%/7.8% YoY respectively [2] - High gold price volatility and cautious dealer inventory management impacted wholesale shipments [2] Brand and Product Strategy - Launched "Treasure Gold" and "Fengxiang Happy Events" series to rejuvenate the century-old brand [3] - Developed crossover collaborations, such as the "Lao Feng Xiang × Beast Gold Car Fragrance" which won the 2024 Shanghai Gold List Souvenir Award [3] - Expanded international presence with the opening of a Treasure Gold-themed store in Hong Kong in August 2024 [3] Valuation and Forecast - 2024-2026 EPS forecast: 3.87/4.17/4.56 yuan [1] - Current PE ratio: 14.5/13.5/12.3x for 2024-2026 [1] - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: 62.387/69.897/77.112 billion yuan [4] - 2024-2026 gross margin forecast: 8.6%/8.0%/8.0% [4] - 2024-2026 net margin forecast: 4.3%/4.2%/4.1% [4]