Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable operations and significant achievements in cost control, with a net profit margin of 8.1%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, and a gross profit margin of 13.9%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [6][5] - The company reported a total revenue of 39.81 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.81 billion yuan, an increase of 1.45% year-on-year [6][5] - The company successfully transferred 100% equity of Guoneng Engineering Company, contributing an additional 145 million yuan to the net profit attributable to shareholders [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's average on-grid electricity price decreased by 6.6% year-on-year, and the on-grid electricity volume fell by 4.4% year-on-year, with specific contributions from thermal, hydro, wind, and solar power generation [6] - The company’s financial expenses decreased by 200 million yuan to 1.42 billion yuan, and the debt-to-asset ratio decreased by 0.35 percentage points to 73.05% [6] - The proportion of shareholders' equity increased to 56.5%, up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year [6] Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 178 billion, 186.1 billion, and 188 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 6.58 billion, 7 billion, and 7.67 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 12, 12, and 11 times [6][8] - The company is expected to maintain stable growth in hydro and coal power performance, while the renewable energy business is anticipated to continue its growth trajectory [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the public utility sector [1] Core Insights - The operating profit and profitability of the public utility sector have improved, with Q1 2025 revenue at 551.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.04%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 6.11% to 54.59 billion yuan [2][21] - The coal-fired power sector benefited from a decline in thermal coal prices, with Q1 2025 revenue at 307.92 billion yuan, down 7.67%, but net profit rose by 8.58% to 23.04 billion yuan [2][45] - The hydropower sector saw revenue increase by 8.66% to 41.80 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with net profit growing by 28.07% to 11.34 billion yuan, driven by increased hydropower generation [2][70] - The nuclear power sector experienced revenue growth of 8.42% to 40.30 billion yuan in Q1 2025, although profit performance varied among companies [2][28] - The investment strategy suggests maintaining an overweight rating for the sector, focusing on companies like Huadian International and Guodian Power in the coal power segment, and Xintian Gas and Xin'ao in the gas sector [2] Summary by Sections 1. Public Utility Sector Performance - The public utility sector includes 133 listed companies, with 102 in the power sector and 31 in the gas sector. In 2024, the sector's revenue was 23,085.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.24%, while net profit increased by 5.38% to 1,848.50 billion yuan [10] 2. Subsector Performance 2.1 Coal Power - The coal power sector's revenue in 2024 was 13,060.52 billion yuan, down 1.11%, with net profit rising by 24.06% to 676.91 billion yuan, benefiting from lower coal prices [28][32] 2.2 Hydropower - In 2024, hydropower revenue was 1,947.67 billion yuan, up 8.99%, with net profit increasing by 17.55% to 563.21 billion yuan, attributed to higher hydropower generation [62] 2.3 New Energy - In 2024, solar power generation was 419.08 billion kWh, up 28.2%, while wind power generation was 936.05 billion kWh, up 11.1% [79] 2.4 Nuclear Power - The nuclear power sector's revenue in Q1 2025 was 40.30 billion yuan, an increase of 8.42%, with varying profit performances among companies [2][28] 2.5 Gas - The gas sector's performance was impacted by rising costs, with specific companies recommended for investment [2] 3. Investment Strategy - The report recommends an overweight rating for the public utility sector, highlighting potential growth in coal and gas companies due to favorable market conditions [2]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 电力 执业证书编号：S0680520070001 邮箱：zhangjinming@gszq.com 山东首发 136 号文细化方案，攻守兼备破局新能源入市 本周行情回顾：本周（5.6-5.9）上证指数报收 3342.00 点，上涨 1.92%，沪深 300 指数报收 3846.16 点，上涨 2.00%。中信电力及公用事业指数报收 2904.26 点， 上涨 2.04%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.04pct，位列 30 个中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 15 位。 本周行业观点： 我们认为，山东承接方案（征求意见稿）对于存量项目而言，机制电价 采取价格上限（山东燃煤基准价），机制电量比例或有下调，但基本保 障了整体项目利润稳定性，尽可能减轻存量项目入市收益风险。对于增 量项目而言，机制电价与电力提出竞价申报充足率 125%要求，并非所 有竞价电量都能纳入机制电量，提升了竞价竞争程度，加速行业高成本 项目出清，倒逼新能源项目效率技术优化与降本。整体来看，山东承接 方案（征求意见稿）有守有攻，对于存量项目部分较为温和，对于增量 项目 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" [4] Core Viewpoints - The Shandong 136 document details a balanced approach to the entry of new energy into the market, providing stability for existing projects while enhancing competition for new projects [3][12][13] - For existing projects, the mechanism price is set at a cap of 0.3949 CNY/kWh (including tax), which aligns with the coal benchmark price in Shandong [13] - For new projects, a bidding capacity requirement of 125% is established, which increases competitive pressure and accelerates the exit of high-cost projects, pushing for efficiency and cost reduction in new energy projects [3][12][13] - The report recommends focusing on green power operators with a higher proportion of existing projects and better short-term revenue certainty, as well as high-quality flexible power sources like thermal and hydropower [3][12][13] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The Shandong 136 document was released on May 7, detailing the market-oriented reform implementation plan for new energy pricing [13] - The coal price has dropped to 643 CNY/ton [14] - The inflow and outflow of the Three Gorges reservoir have decreased by 17.39% and 47.66% year-on-year, respectively [36] - Silicon material prices have decreased to 39 CNY/kg, and mainstream silicon wafer prices have dropped to 1.18 CNY/unit [50] - The national carbon market trading price has decreased by 2.24% this week [60] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3342.00 points, up 1.92%, while the CSI 300 Index closed at 3846.16 points, up 2.00% [65] - The CITIC Power and Utilities Index closed at 2904.26 points, up 2.04%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.04 percentage points [65] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Zhejiang Energy Power (600023.SH) - Buy - Anhui Energy Power (000543.SZ) - Buy - Guodian Power (600795.SH) - Buy - Huaneng International (600011.SH) - Buy - New Energy (688501.SH) - Buy - New Tian Green Energy (600956.SH) - Buy [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and National Supervisory Commission's resident disciplinary inspection team at State Power Investment Corporation emphasizes the importance of comprehensive training for disciplinary inspection cadres to enhance their professional capabilities and effectiveness in combating corruption [1][2][3] Group 1: Training Initiatives - The resident disciplinary inspection team has implemented a systematic approach to training, treating it as a "top priority project" and focusing on tailored learning experiences for different training groups [1] - A recent training session provided "power charging" for 273 disciplinary inspection cadres, with a focus on practical skills and knowledge relevant to their roles [1] - A 13-day comprehensive training course was organized for key personnel, addressing issues specific to state-owned enterprises, including political-business collusion and new forms of corruption [1] Group 2: Capacity Building - The team has established a professional talent pool of 441 individuals and a reserve cadre pool of 117, aimed at optimizing resource allocation for internal disciplinary enforcement [2] - Continuous efforts are being made to enhance the practical training of younger disciplinary inspection cadres through participation in various specialized tasks and cases [2] - The team has already selected 24 key personnel for training at central and local disciplinary inspection commissions and assigned 37 individuals to participate in special case work [2] Group 3: Focus on Effectiveness - The resident disciplinary inspection team stresses that training should lead to tangible results, with plans for 12 specialized training sessions throughout the year to address existing issues and improve professional skills [3] - The goal is to cultivate a cadre of disciplined inspection personnel who are adept at handling challenges and skilled in their duties [3]

截至2025年5月6日 13:10，国证绿色电力指数上涨0.75%，成分股京运通、华银电力10cm涨停，晓程科技上涨5.83%，乐山电力上涨5.26%，西昌电力上涨 4.10%。绿色电力ETF(159625)上涨0.81%。 从估值层面来看，绿色电力ETF跟踪的国证绿色电力指数最新市盈率（PE-TTM）仅18.37倍，处于近3年12.08%的分位，即估值低于近3年87.92%以上的时 间，处于历史低位。 数据显示，截至2025年4月30日，国证绿色电力指数前十大权重股分别为长江电力、中国核电、三峡能源、国投电力、川投能源、中国广核、华能国际、华 能水电、国电电力、申能股份，前十大权重股合计占比58.04%。 东方证券指出，招中标延续增长趋势，行业景气度有望继续提升。、2025Q1国内公开招标市场新增招标量28.6GW，同比增长22.7%。由于24年国内招标数 据亮眼，市场普遍对于25年国内风电景气度抱有积极预期，但同时也会担忧景气度的持续性，随着25Q1招标数据展现较为稳健的同比增长，一定程度对风 电后续景气度给到支撑。 据国内海关数据统计，我国风机3月出口1.46亿美元，环比+86.81%，同比+50.54 ...

Group 1 - The China Power Utility Index has seen a decline of 0.85% as of April 30, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, including Shenzhen Energy leading with a rise of 2.73% [1] - The Power ETF (159611) has shown a cumulative increase of 0.63% over the past week, with a trading volume of 188 million yuan and a turnover rate of 5.64% on the latest trading day [1] - The Power ETF has experienced significant growth in scale, increasing by 1.641 billion yuan over the past six months, ranking first among comparable funds [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Power Utility Index account for 55.94% of the index, with major players including Changjiang Electric Power and China Nuclear Power [2] - The five major power generation groups reported profits in 2024, with Guodian Power distributing cash dividends of 3.567 billion yuan, representing 36.28% of its net profit [2] - The power and utility sector is recognized for its stability and defensive characteristics, with expectations for favorable fiscal and monetary policies in 2025 to support high dividend, low valuation assets [2] Group 3 - The National Energy Administration anticipates a rapid increase in national electricity load during the summer of 2025, with a projected year-on-year increase of approximately 10 million kilowatts [3] - The total electricity consumption in China is expected to reach 10.4 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2025, with a growth rate of around 6% [3] - Recommendations have been made to focus on investment opportunities in the power sector, particularly in light of potential supply pressures during peak periods [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue for Q1 2025, primarily due to lower electricity sales and the transfer of a subsidiary, but managed to increase net profit slightly [1] Financial Performance - Q1 revenue was 39.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.81 billion yuan, up 1.5% year-on-year [1] - Non-recurring net profit was 1.61 billion yuan, down 7.4% year-on-year [1] - Operating cash flow net amount was 14.026 billion yuan, a significant increase of 92.8% year-on-year [1] Operational Metrics - Q1 electricity generation was 100.217 billion kWh, down 5.67% year-on-year [2] - On-grid electricity volume was 94.935 billion kWh, down 5.72% year-on-year [2] - Average on-grid electricity price was 425.41 yuan per thousand kWh, a slight decrease of 0.03 yuan per thousand kWh [2] - Coal prices fell, leading to a 13.19% reduction in operating costs [2] Growth Potential - As of March 31, 2025, the company had a controllable installed capacity of 116.3914 million kW, with significant growth in both thermal and renewable energy capacities [3] - Upcoming projects in the Dadu River basin are expected to contribute to capacity growth, with planned installations of 1.365 million kW in 2025 and 2.155 million kW in 2026 [3] - The company has secured 16.79 million kW of new energy resources domestically and has 18.04 million kW in nuclear preparation [3] Investment Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading player in the national power sector with cost advantages and diversified operations [4] - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 183.901 billion yuan, 191.671 billion yuan, and 198.593 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 2.6%, 4.2%, and 3.6% respectively [4] - Expected net profits for the same period are 7.651 billion yuan, 9.039 billion yuan, and 9.563 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.43, 0.51, and 0.54 yuan per share [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and electricity generation in Q1 2025, but managed to achieve a slight increase in net profit due to cost control and non-operating income [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 39.813 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.61% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.811 billion yuan, an increase of 1.45% year-on-year [1]. - The non-deductible net profit was 1.608 billion yuan, down 7.42% year-on-year [1]. Electricity Generation - The company completed a total electricity generation of 100.217 billion kWh in Q1 2025, a decrease of 5.67% year-on-year [2]. - The on-grid electricity volume was 94.935 billion kWh, down 5.72% year-on-year [2]. - Excluding the impact of transferring Guodian Construction Investment, the generation and on-grid electricity volumes decreased by 4.36% and 4.42% respectively [2]. - The on-grid electricity volumes for thermal, hydro, wind, and solar power changed by -9.34%, -6.95%, +11.23%, and +123.78% year-on-year respectively [2]. Cost and Profitability - The decline in coal prices partially offset the drop in sales volume and price, leading to an operating profit of 3.966 billion yuan, down 8.03% year-on-year [3]. - The company effectively controlled costs, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses decreasing by 63.88%, 16.86%, 18.08%, and 13.46% respectively [3]. - Non-operating income from the disposal of Guoneng Electric Power Engineering Management Co., Ltd. and the bankruptcy of Guodian Shouxian Wind Power Co., Ltd. contributed to the net profit increase [3]. Project Development - As of the end of 2024, the company has 8.35 million kW of thermal power projects and 4.9235 million kW of hydroelectric projects under construction [4]. - The Dadu River Basin hydropower station is expected to contribute 1.365 million kW in 2025, enhancing the company's capacity [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 6.5 billion yuan, 7.7 billion yuan, and 8.0 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year changes of -34.36%, +19.41%, and +3.97% respectively [4]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for April 25, 2025, are estimated to be 12.66, 10.60, and 10.20 times [4].

Summary of Guodian Power's Q1 2025 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Guodian Power - **Date**: Q1 2025 Earnings Call Key Points Financial Performance - Q1 net profit attributable to shareholders reached **1.811 billion yuan**, a year-on-year increase of **1.45%**, primarily due to the transfer of Guoneng Power's equity, which contributed **145 million yuan** to profits [2][3] - Total assets amounted to **500.28 billion yuan**, reflecting a **1.28%** increase from the beginning of the year, while the debt-to-asset ratio decreased to **73.05%**, down **0.35 percentage points** [2][3] Segment Performance - Q1 profits by segment: - Thermal power: **2.141 billion yuan** - Hydropower: **352 million yuan** - Wind power: **587 million yuan** - Solar power: **274 million yuan** - Other segments incurred a loss of **144 million yuan** [2][4] - Thermal power remains the main profit source, but the share of renewable energy is increasing, necessitating attention to profit distribution changes across segments [2] Generation and Pricing - Q1 electricity generation totaled **100.217 billion kWh**, and grid-connected electricity was **94.935 billion kWh**, both down **5.67%** and **5.72%** year-on-year, respectively [2][8] - The average grid-connected electricity price was **425 yuan/MWh**, reflecting a **6%** year-on-year decline [2][8] - The proportion of long-term coal contracts was **96%**, with the benchmark coal price at **857 yuan/ton**, down **8%** year-on-year [2][8] Renewable Energy Developments - New renewable energy installations in Q1 reached **3.69 million kW**, with a significant contribution from the **3 million kW** photovoltaic project in the Wumeng West region [5][13] - The wind power grid-connected electricity price was **44.37 yuan/MWh**, down **46.14 yuan/MWh** year-on-year, while the solar power price was **31.527 yuan/MWh**, down **123.26 yuan/MWh** [2][9] Cost Management - The cost of coal procurement showed effective control, with a funding cost rate of **2%**, down **24 percentage points** year-on-year [2][6] - The company managed to reduce management, sales, and R&D expenses due to the previous year's financial restructuring [6] Market Dynamics - The Q1 abandonment rate for wind power increased by **0.2 percentage points**, particularly in Gansu, Inner Mongolia, and Ningxia, impacting wind power utilization hours and project revenues [5][17] - The competitive pricing for thermal power decreased by **27.73 yuan/MWh**, while hydropower prices increased by **4.98%** year-on-year due to contract structure adjustments [11][12] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue its investment in renewable energy, with potential adjustments following policy clarifications expected in June [5][13] - The overall market price for coal is expected to remain stable or slightly decrease in Q2, influenced by policy and market trends [6] Dividend Considerations - The company is exploring ways to enhance dividend payouts, considering its capital expenditure and reduced debt ratio, indicating potential for increased absolute and relative dividend amounts [23] Additional Insights - The company is closely monitoring the impact of coal price fluctuations and the sustainability of cost control measures [2][6] - The performance of various regions, such as Jiangsu and Anhui, showed significant declines in electricity generation, attributed to increased external transmission and large-scale renewable energy production [20]