图为上海庙公司员工进行设备检查 2024年，国电电力坚定落实集团公司"一三六"发展战略，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，推动公司安全环 保工作持续稳定向好。不断完善安全生产体系，严格落实安全环保一号文件，以《安全生产治本攻坚三年 行动》为工作主线，新能源推行"四票合一"，火电"包、卡、票、单"全线贯通，成功应对各类极端天气 和"摩羯""格美"等多个超强台风登陆侵袭，和禹水电成功抵御50年一遇洪水过境，火电机组开机率、负荷 率保持区域领先，13家企业获评集团公司安全环保一级企业，19家企业获评集团公司安全管理标准化一级 企业。坚持创新发展，加快绿色转型，对煤电机组实施"一机一策"，稳步推进"三改联动"，全年累计完成 24台次"三改联动"升级改造，系统内13台机组荣获全国可靠性对标或能效对标优胜机组称号。深入实施煤 电低碳化改造，锦界公司生物质掺烧项目投运，布连电厂沙柳生物质颗粒生产线开工建设，胜利电厂完成 全国首例"牛粪掺烧"实验。截至2024年12月31日，公司合并报表口径控股装机容量11173.39万千瓦，其 中：火电7462.9万千瓦，水电1495.06万千瓦，风电983.98万千瓦，光伏1231.45万千瓦，2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a decline in China's thermal power generation, with a notable decrease in production figures for 2025 compared to previous years [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - In November 2025, China's thermal power generation output was 497 billion kilowatt-hours, representing a year-on-year decrease of 4.2% [1] - From January to November 2025, the cumulative thermal power generation output in China was 57,124.6 billion kilowatt-hours, showing a cumulative decline of 0.7% [1] Group 2: Companies Involved - Listed companies in the thermal power sector include Huaneng International (600011), Datang Power (601991), Guodian Power (600795), Huadian International (600027), Jingneng Power (600578), Zhejiang Energy (600023), Yunnan Energy Holdings (001896), Sheneng Co. (600642), Jingtou Energy (000600), and Anhui Energy (000543) [1] Group 3: Research and Analysis - The report titled "2026-2032 China Thermal Power Industry Market Panorama Survey and Investment Potential Research Report" was published by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China [1] - Zhiyan Consulting has over a decade of experience in industry research, providing comprehensive industry solutions to empower investment decisions [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the gaming industry as "high" for investment [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Treatment Action Plan," which aims for significant improvements in solid waste management by 2030, including a target of 4.5 billion tons of comprehensive utilization of major solid waste and 510 million tons of recycling of key resources [2][5][7] - It highlights the shift in the energy sector towards diversified revenue models for thermal power companies, recommending several key players in the industry [8] - The report discusses the current trends in natural gas pricing, noting a general decline in global gas prices due to mild weather conditions and stable supply [10][29] - It outlines the transition of hydrogen energy towards becoming a "regulator" of the power grid, emphasizing its role in energy storage and management [31][33] Summary by Sections 1. Environmental Protection - The "Solid Waste Comprehensive Treatment Action Plan" was released on January 4, aiming to enhance solid waste management and promote a green economy [5] - By 2030, the plan targets a comprehensive utilization of 4.5 billion tons of major solid waste and 510 million tons of recycling of key resources [2][6] - The focus is on industrial, urban, and agricultural waste, with a comprehensive governance approach to illegal dumping and construction waste [6][7] 2. Natural Gas - As of January 9, the Henry Hub spot price in the U.S. was $2.87/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly decline of 28.24% [10][11] - The report notes that the European gas prices have also decreased, with the TTF spot price at €29.00/MWh, down 1.43% week-on-week [10][16] - The overall gas market is characterized by stable supply and mild weather, leading to lower demand and prices [10][29] 3. Hydrogen Energy - The report discusses the integration of hydrogen energy into the power grid, highlighting its potential for large-scale energy storage and management [31] - It emphasizes the role of hydrogen in addressing renewable energy challenges and improving grid stability [31][33] - The report recommends companies involved in hydrogen production and technology as key investment opportunities [33] 4. Weekly Market Review - The report notes that the electric power equipment, gas, and environmental protection sectors outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the week of January 5 to January 9 [34] - It provides insights into the performance of various sectors, indicating a positive trend for certain energy and environmental stocks [36][39] 5. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the establishment of national zero-carbon parks, which will receive significant support for green energy initiatives [39] - It mentions the successful completion of green power transactions in Gansu, indicating a growing market for renewable energy [40][43] - The report includes updates on major companies' performance and strategic developments in the energy sector [44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" investment rating [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the release of the "Comprehensive Solid Waste Management Action Plan," which aims to enhance solid waste management and promote a circular economy by 2030, targeting a comprehensive utilization of 4.5 billion tons of major solid waste and 510 million tons of recyclable resources annually [2][6][8]. - Global natural gas prices have generally declined, influenced by mild weather conditions, with significant drops in prices across various markets, including a 28.24% decrease in the US Henry Hub spot price [11][12][18]. - The hydrogen energy sector is evolving towards becoming a key regulator in the power grid, with initiatives to integrate clean hydrogen production and utilization into microgrid systems, enhancing energy storage capabilities [35][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Environmental Protection - The "Comprehensive Solid Waste Management Action Plan" aims for significant improvements in solid waste management by 2030, with specific targets for waste recycling and resource utilization [2][6]. - The plan emphasizes the need for a circular economy that does not rely on subsidies, focusing on industrial collaboration and technological innovation to create a sustainable waste management system [7][8]. 2. Natural Gas - Natural gas prices have seen a significant decline, with the US Henry Hub spot price at $2.87/mmBtu, reflecting a 28.24% week-over-week drop [11][12]. - The report notes that the demand for natural gas is expected to remain weak in Northeast Asia, contributing to a slight decrease in LNG prices [11][30]. - Recommendations include focusing on integrated natural gas companies that are expected to benefit from cost reductions and improved profitability [32]. 3. Hydrogen Energy - The report discusses the strategic positioning of hydrogen energy as a flexible load regulator within the power grid, highlighting its potential to enhance energy storage and consumption efficiency [35][37]. - It emphasizes the importance of hydrogen energy in achieving energy security and autonomy, recommending companies involved in hydrogen production [35][37]. 4. Weekly Market Review - The report indicates that the electricity equipment, gas, and environmental protection sectors outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the review period [38]. 5. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report outlines significant developments in the renewable energy sector, including the establishment of national zero-carbon parks and the increase in green electricity trading volumes, which are expected to enhance market opportunities for leading companies in the sector [44][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [8] Core Insights - The adjustment of coal power capacity prices in Tianjin exceeds expectations, with the fixed cost recovery ratio increasing to 70% from January 1, 2026, which is higher than the previously planned minimum of 50% [2][11] - The January 2026 proxy purchase electricity prices show a general decline across most provinces, with significant regional disparities; northern inland areas exhibit more resilience compared to coastal regions facing greater pressure [2][11] Summary by Sections Capacity Price Adjustment - Tianjin's coal power capacity price will rise from 100 yuan per kilowatt per year to 231 yuan, enhancing the fixed cost recovery ratio to 70% [2][11] - The adjustment is expected to yield an increase of approximately 0.035 yuan per kilowatt-hour in electricity pricing, although actual capacity fees may rise more significantly due to declining coal power utilization hours [11] Proxy Purchase Electricity Prices - January 2026 proxy purchase prices show a decline, with Guangdong and Jiangsu reporting average transaction prices of 372.14 yuan per megawatt-hour and 344.19 yuan per megawatt-hour, respectively, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 19.72 yuan and 68.26 yuan [11] - Northern inland regions, such as Inner Mongolia, show a year-on-year increase in proxy purchase prices, while coastal provinces like Guangdong and Jiangsu face declines exceeding 5 fen per kilowatt-hour [11] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality coal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, and Guodian Power, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation [11][16][17] - It also highlights the potential of new energy companies like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power, suggesting a favorable long-term outlook for the sector [11][20]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Buy" rating for several companies in the power sector, including Huaneng International, Huadian International, Guodian Power, and Datang Power, among others [9]. Core Insights - The National Energy Administration has released detailed regulations for green certificate management, which is expected to reshape market rules and enhance the trading price of green certificates by 2026 [2][14]. - The new regulations clarify that independent energy storage discharge will no longer be eligible for green certificate issuance, which may lead to a reduction in the overall circulation of green certificates and an increase in their trading prices [2][14]. - The guidelines for industrial microgrid construction require that new renewable energy generation in industrial parks must have a self-consumption ratio of at least 60% annually, promoting local production and consumption of green electricity [6][16]. Summary by Sections Green Certificate Regulations - The new regulations maintain the core measurement standard of issuing one green certificate for every 1,000 kWh of renewable energy generated [2][14]. - Independent energy storage discharge will not receive green certificates, and projects must measure generation and storage separately [2][17]. - From January 1, 2026, the production year of the electricity must match the consumption year for green certificate cancellation, changing the previous practice of purchasing historical certificates [2][17]. Industrial Microgrid Guidelines - The guidelines aim to enhance the capacity for local production and consumption of green electricity in industrial sectors [6][16]. - New renewable energy projects in industrial parks must achieve a minimum self-consumption ratio of 60% [6][16]. - The guidelines introduce a requirement for integrating various systems, including renewable energy generation and energy management technologies [6][16]. Market Performance - The report notes that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82% during the week of January 5-9, with the power and utilities sector index increasing by 2.4%, underperforming the broader market [66][67]. - The report highlights that most listed companies in the power and utilities sector experienced stock price increases during this period [66].

Core Viewpoint - Environmental risks are increasingly becoming a significant operational risk for listed companies, impacting both their development and public image [3]. Group 1: Environmental Violations and Penalties - Four listed companies have recently been exposed to environmental risks, with a total of 42.52 million shareholders potentially facing investment risks [3][2]. - Guodian Power's subsidiary, Liaocheng Power, was fined approximately 310,900 yuan for failing to verify the qualifications and technical capabilities of a third-party waste disposal company [4][3]. - Shijin Technology's subsidiary, Suzhou Shunze Testing Technology, was fined 116,000 yuan for falsifying environmental monitoring data [5][3]. - Yunda Co.'s subsidiary, Fengxin New Energy, was fined 200,000 yuan for commencing operations without reapplying for an environmental impact assessment after significant project changes [6][3]. Group 2: Regulatory Framework and Public Participation - The increase in environmental information transparency is supported by improved environmental regulatory information disclosure, ensuring public access to environmental data [9]. - Legal frameworks have established the right for citizens and organizations to access environmental information and participate in environmental protection [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the utility sector, indicating that the expected settlement price for thermal power in 2026 is likely to be better than market expectations [7]. Core Insights - The long-term contract electricity price risk has materialized, and the average reduction in long-term contract electricity prices for 2026 is estimated to be around 3-4 cents per kilowatt-hour. However, the capacity price for coal-fired power is expected to increase by at least 65 yuan per kilowatt per year, which may lead to a lower-than-expected decline in thermal power settlement prices [7]. - The report highlights that the performance expectations for the utility sector have reached a low point, making low-priced utility assets worth considering for investment [7]. - The report suggests that the utility sector remains a quality dividend asset for long-term allocation, especially under the trend of low interest rates and policies encouraging long-term capital market entry [7]. Summary by Sections Electricity Price Dynamics - The average clearing price for the Guangdong electricity market from January 3 to January 9, 2026, was 321 yuan per megawatt-hour, down 51 yuan year-on-year (-13.7%) [10]. - The average price for Shanxi during the same period was 234 yuan per megawatt-hour, down 107 yuan year-on-year (-31.4%) [10]. Coal Price Trends - As of January 9, 2026, the price of Q5500 thermal coal in Qinhuangdao was 699 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 17 yuan (+2.5%) [15]. - The coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port decreased by 11.6% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply situation [21]. Performance of Utility Sector - The utility sector index increased by 2.5% during the week of January 5 to January 9, 2026, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 2.8% [35]. - The report notes that the gas sector within utilities showed the highest weekly increase of 4.8% [37]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality dividend assets in the utility sector, particularly in thermal power, hydropower, and nuclear power, with specific stocks highlighted for potential investment [7].

Group 1 - The establishment of Guodian Investment (Tianjin) Energy Investment Co., Ltd. was announced on January 5, with a registered capital of 200 million yuan [1] - The company is wholly owned by the State Power Investment Corporation's subsidiary, State Power Investment Corporation Tianjin Electric Power Co., Ltd. [1] - The business scope of the company includes energy management services, power generation technology services, thermal production and supply, centralized fast charging stations, and various renewable energy services [1]

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