新春临近，在位于内蒙古西北边陲的国电电力乌力吉峰储电站，工作人员顶着寒风开展工作。他们不仅 守设备，更心系周边牧民。 截至2025年底，电站已连续安全生产超6200天，累计发电量突破44.6亿千瓦时。戈壁风不停，这群人坚 守岗位，点亮的不只是万家灯火，更是持续可靠的温暖力量。 0:00 / 6:06 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a decline in China's thermal power generation, with a projected decrease in output for 2025 compared to previous years, indicating potential challenges for the industry [1]. Industry Summary - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the thermal power generation output in December 2025 is expected to be 581.2 billion kilowatt-hours, representing a year-on-year decrease of 3.2% [1]. - The cumulative thermal power generation output for the entire year of 2025 is projected to be 6,294.55 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a cumulative decline of 1% [1]. - The report is part of a comprehensive market survey and investment potential research for the thermal power industry in China from 2026 to 2032, published by Zhiyan Consulting [1].

Core Viewpoint - A new energy company with a registered capital of 15.1 billion yuan has been established in Qinghai, aiming to invest nearly 73 billion yuan in the Qinghai Hainan Clean Energy Export Base project, marking a significant collaboration among major energy players in China's clean energy sector [3][4][10]. Group 1: Company Formation and Structure - The newly formed company, Guodian Qingyue Energy Development Co., Ltd., is a joint venture among State Power Investment Corporation, Guangdong Energy Group, and Qinghai Clean Energy Industry Group, focusing on carbon reduction technology, energy management, and system integration [4][5]. - This collaboration represents a shift from traditional single-entity project development to a model that distributes investment pressure, shares risks, and allows for mutual benefits among the partners [6][10]. Group 2: Project Details - The Qinghai Hainan Clean Energy Export Base project has a planned total capacity of 19.44 million kilowatts, with 86.4% of the capacity coming from renewable sources, including 9.6 million kilowatts of solar power and 6 million kilowatts of wind power [4][9]. - The project is designed to address the volatility of renewable energy generation through a multi-energy complementary approach, including 1.2 million kilowatts of energy storage capacity [9]. Group 3: Economic and Environmental Impact - Once operational, the project is expected to generate approximately 36 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, saving about 10 million tons of standard coal and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 23.5 million tons [9]. - The "Qing Electricity to Guangdong" initiative will provide stable clean energy support to Guangdong, transforming Qinghai's resource advantages into economic benefits while contributing to the national carbon market [10].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the electricity and natural gas sectors, highlighting stable revenue mechanisms and growth potential in consumption and pricing [1][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of a refined capacity pricing mechanism for electricity generation, which aims to stabilize revenue and ensure fair compensation for various power sources [4][6]. - It notes that natural gas consumption is expected to grow, supported by favorable weather conditions and improved economic indicators, despite short-term price fluctuations [10][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: Improved Capacity Pricing Mechanism - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notification to enhance the capacity pricing mechanism for electricity generation, addressing mismatches in supply and demand within the new power system [4]. - The new mechanism aims to ensure that different types of power generation, including coal, gas, and new energy sources, receive fair compensation based on their peak supply capabilities [6][7]. - The report highlights that the refined pricing structure will lead to more predictable revenue for power generation companies, reducing volatility in earnings [7]. 2. Natural Gas: Continued Growth in Consumption - The report indicates that the apparent consumption of natural gas in China is projected to grow by 0.1% in 2025, with December consumption reaching 38.57 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [29]. - It notes that the recent cold weather has supported high natural gas prices, with the U.S. Henry Hub spot price at $7.18/mmBtu, while European prices remain elevated due to low inventory levels and geopolitical tensions [10][12]. - The report suggests that the natural gas sector will benefit from a combination of lower costs and improved pricing mechanisms, leading to a recovery in profitability for city gas companies [31]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For coal-fired power, companies like Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian are recommended due to their stable revenue sources [8]. - Hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation are highlighted for their potential to improve profit margins through reduced capital expenditures [8]. - In the nuclear sector, China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are suggested for their growth potential as new units are approved [8]. - The report also recommends focusing on integrated natural gas companies like ENN Energy and China Gas Holdings, which are expected to benefit from lower costs and increased sales [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment due to policy improvements and market dynamics [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent improvements in the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, which aims to stabilize revenue and enhance the profitability of various power sources [6][10]. - It notes a slight increase in natural gas consumption in 2025, with a projected growth of 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a stable demand outlook for the gas sector [32]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector: Capacity Pricing Mechanism Improvement - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notification to enhance the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, addressing mismatches in supply and demand within the new energy system [6]. - The new mechanism introduces differentiated pricing for various types of regulatory power sources, ensuring that their capacity value is adequately compensated [7]. - A unified compensation standard for peak capacity across different power sources is established, promoting rational investment and resource allocation in the power sector [8][10]. 2. Gas Sector: Continued Growth in Natural Gas Consumption - Natural gas consumption in China is expected to reach 385.7 billion cubic meters by December 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [32]. - The report emphasizes the impact of cold weather on gas prices, with global prices remaining high, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, which supports the profitability of gas companies [13][19]. - The report suggests that the gas sector will benefit from a combination of lower costs and improved demand, particularly for city gas companies, with recommendations for several key players in the market [34]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The report notes that the public utility, power, gas, and environmental sectors underperformed relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the week of January 24 to January 30, 2026 [36]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - As of the end of 2025, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.89 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, with significant growth in solar and wind power installations [43]. - The report includes various company announcements, highlighting performance forecasts and operational updates from key players in the energy sector [44].

欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 企查查网站显示，1月30日，国电投青粤（青海）能源开发有限责任公司成立， 法定代 表人为李洪川， 注册资本为 151亿 元， 国家电投、广东能源集团、青海省清洁能源产 业集团等单位共同持股。 | | 股东信息4 1 ● E 股权结构 | | | | | 四 导出 | © 企查查 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | | 股东名称 | 持股比例 ÷ | 认缴出资额(万元) ۾ | | 认缴出资日期 ; 首次持股日期 ; 关联产品/机构 | | | | | 青海黄河上游水电开发有限责任公司 国有企业 大股东 | 51.00% | BVIP | 2028-12-01 | 2026-01-30 | 黄河公司 | | 2 | 服 | 东省能源集团西北(甘肃)有限公司 国有企业 | 30.00% | BVIP | 2028-12-01 | 2026-01-30 | . | | ਤੇ | 提 能源 | 青海省清洁能源产业发展集团有限公司 国有企业 | 10.00% | BVIP | 2028-12-01 | 2026-01 ...

光伏机制电价竞出超低价的山东，光伏领域又爆出大新闻。 华夏能源网（公众号hxny3060）获悉，日前，山东省能源局印发《关于调整集中式光伏发电并网项目名单的通知》 （以下简称"《通知》"），将63个，总容量583.9万千瓦的未能如期建成并网的光伏电站项目移出市场化并网项目名 单。 这条新闻之所以引发市场高度关注，是因为上述项目建设主体涉及了35个电力央国企。 山东省能源局还强调，"对于上述未能按期投产的项目，将从名单中移出，并对所在市和所属企业在后续新能源项目申 报中从严把握"。所谓"从严把握"，就是说接下来的项目申报要从严把关了。 从维护市场纪律看，山东省能源局的做法无可厚非，但问题是，如此之多的项目未能如期并网、齐刷刷集体违约，背 后到底是何原因？如此问题是仅限于山东，还是普遍存在于全国各地？ 山东的尴尬 从调整名单来看，63个未能如期建成并网的光伏电站项目共涉及到35个电力央国企光伏电站业主方，其中国家电投、 华能、华电被调整的容量最多，其次是中广核、华润、国投电力、山高新能源等企业。 | | 山东市场化并网项目调整名单 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 业主車位 | 调出容 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the utility sector, particularly for coal-fired power operators, with a recommendation to focus on quality transformation operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, Guodian Power, Huadian International, China Power, China Resources Power, and Funiu Co., Ltd. [7] Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of the capacity compensation mechanism in addressing the long-standing issue of fixed cost recovery in the coal-fired power sector. The implementation of a reliable capacity compensation mechanism is expected to resolve the dual pricing system between long-term contracts and spot market prices, leading to a more balanced electricity market. [2][5][7] - The report anticipates that by 2026, the national capacity supply-demand ratio will reach 84%-96%, with capacity prices ranging from 276 to 316 RMB/year·kW. This is expected to alleviate the downward pressure on long-term contract prices significantly. [7] - The report emphasizes that the introduction of the capacity compensation mechanism will decouple the fixed cost recovery from long-term contract pricing, thus allowing coal-fired power to return to being a public utility. [7] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the recent announcement by the National Development and Reform Commission regarding the improvement of the capacity price mechanism, which aims to unify various types of regulatory power sources under a new reform initiative. [18] Importance of Capacity Compensation Mechanism - The capacity price is designed to compensate for fixed costs associated with power plants, which include capital costs, fixed operating and maintenance costs, and taxes. This mechanism is crucial for ensuring that power companies can recover their fixed costs effectively. [21][22] International Examples and Domestic Innovations - The report references the PJM capacity market mechanism in the U.S. and the innovative capacity compensation mechanism trialed in Gansu Province, which aims to achieve near-full recovery of fixed costs. [6] Breaking the Profitability Dilemma - The report concludes that if the reliable capacity compensation mechanism is implemented nationwide, it will significantly reduce the profitability challenges faced by coal-fired power plants under the current dual pricing system. [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the public utility sector [6] Core Insights - The commercial model of the power sector is continuously transforming, with a reduced reliance on annual long-term contracts for electricity and prices. The sector is shifting towards mid-to-long-term markets, spot markets, and capacity markets, indicating a comprehensive push for marketization [19][3] - The capacity price mechanism is being refined, with the aim to optimize the electricity market and ensure fair compensation reflecting the contributions of different power plants to peak demand [15][3] - The report highlights the importance of capacity market development, with current subsidies in Gansu and Yunnan reaching 330 RMB/kW·year, which helps offset the decline in electricity prices [19][3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The SW public utility sector index fell by 1.66% this week, ranking 16th among 31 SW sectors. In comparison, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.08%, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.44% and 1.62%, respectively [33][33] - Within sub-sectors, thermal power decreased by 2.78%, hydropower increased by 0.3%, while solar and wind power fell by 4.53% and 2.49%, respectively [33][33] Price Updates - Domestic and imported thermal coal prices have rebounded slightly, with domestic Qinhuangdao port 5500 kcal thermal coal rising by 4 RMB/ton, remaining below 700 RMB/ton. Imported coal prices also saw a slight increase [12][12] - The average clearing price for electricity in Shanxi and Guangdong has significantly increased due to cold weather, while the monthly agent purchase electricity costs are trending upwards due to rising capacity prices and the entry of renewable energy into the settlement cycle [13][12] Key Events - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to improve the capacity price mechanism for power generation, which includes optimizing compensation for coal and gas power generation [3][15] - Recent policy changes include relaxing the annual long-term contract signing ratio for coal-fired power companies and the cancellation of time-of-use electricity pricing in multiple regions [3][15] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on national thermal power operators such as Huaneng International and Guodian Power, which are expected to maintain stable cash dividends. The profitability of thermal power is anticipated to gradually detach from coal cost dependency, shifting towards multiple influencing factors [19][3] - For long-term stable investment needs, the report recommends attention to companies like Yangtze Power, State Power Investment Corporation, and China National Nuclear Power [19][3]

证券研究报告 公用环保 发电侧容量电价新规基本符合预期 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 01 日│中国内地 动态点评 2026 年 1 月 30 日，国家发改委、国家能源局发布《关于完善发电侧容量电 价机制的通知》（发改价格〔2026〕114 号），各类电源容量电价机制完善 情况基本符合预期；抽蓄抽水、电网侧独立新型储能充电时视作用户，缴纳 上网环节线损费用和系统运行费用（全国平均约 1.6 和 6.1 分/千瓦时），充 放电量损耗需按照单一电量制用户缴纳输配电价（全国平均约 0.178 元/千 瓦时），此前各省执行情况不一，该要求一定程度或减少抽蓄和新型储能电 量收益。总体而言，容量电价机制的进一步完善有望提升调节电源的固定收 入占比，盈利稳定性有望提升，推荐火电龙头华能国际 AH/国电电力/华润 电力等、抽蓄运营龙头南网储能和装机增长潜力大的长江电力/湖北能源等。 煤电容量电价如期提升至不低于 165 元/千瓦，决定权下放至地方 "114 号文"提出：1）将通过容量电价回收煤电机组固定成本的比例提升 至不低于 50%，与 2023 年 11 月 8 日国家发改委、国家能源局发布的《关 于建立煤电容量电价机 ...