Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 126.2 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.43 billion yuan, up 10.6% year-on-year. For Q1 2024, the revenue was 32.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.6%, while the net profit was 5.92 billion yuan, a significant increase of 63.8% [2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 12.00 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) to all shareholders [2]. - The company is focusing on improving profitability through cost stabilization and product structure enhancement, alongside a share buyback plan of 1-2 billion yuan to boost investor returns [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the liquid milk, milk powder, and cold drink segments generated revenues of 85.5 billion yuan (+0.7%), 27.6 billion yuan (+5.1%), and 10.7 billion yuan (+11.7%), respectively. In Q1 2024, these segments reported revenues of 20.3 billion yuan (-6.8%), 7.4 billion yuan (-0.2%), and 4.3 billion yuan (+14.2%) [2]. - The gross margins for 2023 and Q1 2024 were 32.6% (+0.3pp) and 35.8% (+2pp), respectively, primarily due to declining raw milk prices [2]. - The net profit margins for 2023 and Q1 2024 were 8.2% (+0.6pp) and 18.3% (+7.5pp), respectively, with the latter benefiting from increased investment income from subsidiary equity transfers [2]. Profitability Forecast - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 13.0 billion yuan, 13.3 billion yuan, and 13.9 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 2.04 yuan, 2.07 yuan, and 2.18 yuan, leading to dynamic PE ratios of 14x, 14x, and 13x [3][4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company holds the leading market share in liquid milk, with a retail market share of 16.2% in infant formula, up 1.6 percentage points. It is also focusing on functional dairy products for the elderly [2]. - The cold drink segment continues to outperform the industry, maintaining its market leadership [2]. - The company is leveraging strategic partnerships and investments in upstream dairy resources to enhance its supply chain efficiency and product quality [2].

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of CNY 35 [2][4] Core Views - Revenue fluctuations primarily due to channel adjustments, with cost reductions and fee optimization driving profit growth [2] - Plans to distribute a dividend of CNY 1.2 per share (tax-inclusive), with a dividend payout ratio of approximately 73% [2] - Intends to repurchase CNY 1-2 billion worth of shares for cancellation, resulting in a post-repurchase dividend yield exceeding 4.6% [2] - 2023 revenue reached CNY 126.18 billion, up 2.44% YoY, with non-GAAP net profit of CNY 10.03 billion, up 16.78% YoY [2] - 2024 revenue target set at CNY 130 billion, with a profit target of CNY 14.7 billion [2] Financial Performance - 2023 liquid milk revenue grew 0.7%, milk powder and dairy products grew 5.1%, cold drinks grew 11.7%, and other products grew 60.7% [2] - Gross margin for 2023 was 32.80%, up 0.29 percentage points YoY, driven by lower milk prices [2] - 2024 Q1 revenue was CNY 32.58 billion, down 2.58% YoY, with non-GAAP net profit of CNY 3.73 billion, up 7.97% YoY [2] - 2024 Q1 liquid milk revenue declined 6.8% due to channel adjustments and inventory management [2] Future Outlook - Liquid milk channel adjustments are showing initial results, with expected gradual recovery in growth [2] - Infant formula industry pressures are easing, while adult formula business continues to grow [2] - Cold drinks benefit from market concentration, and cheese products are driving growth through B2B channels [2] - Product structure optimization and efficiency improvements are expected to further enhance profitability [2] Financial Projections - 2024E revenue projected at CNY 130.61 billion, with net profit of CNY 12.99 billion [3] - 2025E revenue projected at CNY 136.90 billion, with net profit of CNY 12.36 billion [3] - 2026E revenue projected at CNY 143.50 billion, with net profit of CNY 13.74 billion [3] - 2024E EPS projected at CNY 2.04, 2025E at CNY 1.94, and 2026E at CNY 2.16 [3] Valuation Metrics - 2024E PE ratio of 14.02, PB ratio of 3.34, and EV/EBITDA of 10.61 [3] - 2024E dividend yield projected at 5.2% [3] Industry Comparison - Compared to peers, the company has a higher EPS growth rate and lower PE ratio [9] - Sector average PE for 2024E is 16, while the company's PE is 14 [9]

乳制品 伊利股份（600887.SH） 买入-A(维持) 23年主业平稳增长，24Q1液态奶短期承压 2024年5月6日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 事件描述 伊利股份发布 2023年年报，23年公司实现营业总收入1261.79亿元， 同比增长2.44%；归母净利润104.29亿元，同比增长10.58%。其中23Q4实 现营业总收入287.75亿元，同比减少1.82%；归母净利润10.48亿元，同比 减少23.47%。 同时公司发布24年一季报，24Q1公司实现营业总收入325.77亿元，同 比减少2.58%；归母净利润59.23亿元，同比增长63.84%。 市场数据：2024年4月30日 事件点评 收盘价（元）： 28.61  23年主业平稳增长，24Q1液态奶承压。具体收入端来看，23年/23Q4 年内最高/最低（元）： 31.00/25.20 公司液体乳分别实现营收855.40/201.09亿元，同比+0.7/-3.4%，奶粉及奶制 流通A股/总股本（亿 63.05/63.66 品营收275.98/76.76亿元，同比+5.1/+1.9%，冷饮产品营收106.88/3.05亿元， 股）： ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][7] Core Views - The report emphasizes high-quality development and further enhancement of shareholder returns [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 126.18 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.43 billion yuan, up 10.58% year-on-year [3][4] - The company plans to achieve a revenue target of 130 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3% [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company's revenue by category was as follows: liquid milk 85.54 billion yuan (+0.72% YoY), milk powder 27.60 billion yuan (+5.09% YoY), and ice cream 10.69 billion yuan (+11.72% YoY) [2][3] - For Q1 2024, the company reported revenues of 32.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.58% year-on-year, with a net profit of 5.92 billion yuan, an increase of 63.84% year-on-year [3][4] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2024 was 35.79%, an increase of 2.02 percentage points year-on-year [5] Shareholder Returns - The company distributed a cash dividend of 7.639 billion yuan in 2023, with a total return to shareholders of 8.336 billion yuan, accounting for 79.94% of net profit attributable to shareholders [5] - The company announced a share buyback plan of up to 2 billion yuan, aimed at reducing registered capital and enhancing shareholder returns [5] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 131.16 billion yuan, 137.36 billion yuan, and 144.70 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 12.82 billion yuan, 12.43 billion yuan, and 13.28 billion yuan [6][7] - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 14, 15, and 14 respectively [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887 CH) with a target price raised to RMB 33.50, indicating a potential upside of 17.1% from the current price of RMB 28.61 [1][4]. Core Insights - Yili continues to expand its market share and profit margins despite a sluggish market, with a notable performance in fresh milk and ice cream segments [1]. - The company reported a decline in revenue for Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, with year-on-year decreases of 1.8% and 2.6%, respectively, primarily due to challenges in the liquid milk business [1]. - The management has guided for a revenue growth of 3% in 2024, targeting RMB 130 billion, with a pre-tax profit increase of 25% to RMB 14.7 billion [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 126.18 billion, with a modest growth of 2.4% compared to 2022. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach RMB 130.24 billion, reflecting a growth of 3.2% [2]. - Net profit for 2023 is estimated at RMB 10.43 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 10.6%. The forecast for 2024 anticipates a net profit of RMB 13.27 billion, representing a significant increase of 27.3% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is projected at RMB 1.63, with an expected rise to RMB 2.07 in 2024 [2]. Market Performance - Yili's stock has shown resilience with a year-to-date increase of 6.95%, and its market capitalization stands at approximately RMB 180.39 billion [3]. - The stock has a 52-week high of RMB 30.67 and a low of RMB 25.33, indicating a stable trading range [3]. Product Performance - The liquid milk segment faced pressure, but fresh milk sales doubled year-on-year, while ice cream sales grew robustly by 11.7% in 2023, driven by expansion in lower-tier markets and Southeast Asia [1]. - For Q1 2024, sales in liquid milk, milk powder, ice cream, and other products showed varied performance, with liquid milk sales declining by 6.8% [1]. Strategic Outlook - The management aims to achieve a pre-tax net profit margin of no less than 9% by 2025, up from 8.3% in 2023, despite anticipated increases in operating expenses due to enhanced channel investments [1]. - The report emphasizes that Yili's ability to maintain and grow its market share in a challenging environment positions it favorably for future growth [1].

[Table_Main] 公司研究|日常消费|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 伊利股份(600887)公司点评报告 2024年04月30日 [Table回_Tit购le] 计划提振信心，毛利率持续提升 [Table_Inves 买t] 入|维持 ——伊利股份 2023 年报及 2024 年一季报点评 [报 Ta告 ble要 _S点 um： m ary] [ Table_TargetPr ice]  事件 公司公告2023年报及2024年一季报。2023年，公司实现总收入1261.79亿 元（+2.44%），归母净利104.29亿元（+10.58%），扣非归母净利100.26亿元 （+16.78%）。2023Q4，公司实现总收入287.75亿元（-1.82%），归母净利10.48 [基Ta本bl数e_据Ba se] 亿元（-23.47%），扣非归母净利15.73亿元（+56.49%）。2024Q1，公司实现 52周最高/最低价（元）： 30.67 / 25.33 总收入325.77亿元（-2.58%），归母净利59.23亿元（+63.84%），扣非归母净 利37.28亿元（+12.39%）。公司拟每股派发现金 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6][13] Core Views - The company experienced revenue pressure but improved net profit margins, with 2023 revenue at 125.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, and net profit at 10.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [6][8] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue target of 130 billion yuan for the year, with liquid milk sales anticipated to recover following channel adjustments [7][8] - The net profit margin for Q1 2024 increased by 7.5 percentage points to 18.3%, driven by investment income from asset disposals [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 125.76 billion yuan and a net profit of 10.43 billion yuan, with Q4 2023 revenue at 28.77 billion yuan, a decline of 1.8% year-on-year, and Q1 2024 revenue at 32.58 billion yuan, a decline of 2.6% year-on-year [6][7] - The company’s net profit for Q1 2024 was 5.9 billion yuan, a significant increase of 63.8% year-on-year [6][8] Profitability - The gross margin improved due to a decrease in raw milk costs and an optimized product mix, with expectations for further improvement in 2024 [8] - The company’s net profit margin is projected to reach 9.9% in 2024, with a target total profit of 14.7 billion yuan [8] Market Position - The company maintains a strong competitive advantage in the market, with a diversified business layout expected to enhance profitability over the long term [6][8] - The company’s dividend payout ratio was 73.25% in 2023, with a dividend yield of approximately 4.5% [8]

证券研究报告 [收Tab入le_短Titl期e] 承压，红利坚定信心 公司研究 [Table_ReportDate] 2024年5月3日 [公Ta司ble点_Re评po报rtT告ype] [Table_Summary] 事件： 伊利发布 2023 年报及 2024 年一季报。2023 年，公司实现营收 [伊Ta利bl股e_份Sto(c6k0A0n8dR8a7n)k ] 1262 亿元，同比+2.44%；归母净利润 104.29 亿元，同比+10.58%；扣非 归母净利润 100.26 亿元，同比+16.78%。其中，23Q4 实现营收 288 亿 投资评级 买入 元，同比-1.82%；归母净利润10.48亿元，同比-23.47%；扣非归母净利润 上次评级 买入 15.73 亿元，同比+56.49%。24Q1，公司实现营收 326 亿元，同比- 2.58%；归母净利润59.23亿元，同比+63.84%；扣非归母净利润37.28亿 [马Ta铮b le _ A u t食ho品r]饮 料行业首席分析师 元，同比+12.39%。 执业编号：S1500520110001 联系电话：13392190215 邮 箱：mazh ...

证 券 2024 年 05 月 03 日 研 究 液体乳板块静待修复，多板块发力增长 报 告 —伊利股份（600887.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 2024 年 04 月 29 日，伊利股份发布 2023 年年报、2024 年一 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 季度报、关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份方案的公 告。 投资要点 基本数据 2024-04-30 当前股价（元） 28.61 ▌盈利端改善可期，回购方案彰显发展信心 总市值（亿元） 1821 总股本（百万股） 6366 公 司 2023/2023Q4/2024Q1 总 营 收 分 别 为 1261.79/287.75/325.77 亿元，分别同 比+2%/-2%/-3%， 流通股本（百万股） 6305 2024Q1 营收端承压，主要系基数高/春节后消费需求偏弱， 52周价格范围（元） 25.33-30.67 导致上游供给过剩与需求恢复不足的供需矛盾所致，当前公 日均成交额（百万元） 983.39 司主动调整出货节奏及上游奶源采购和消化，随着渠道逐步 市场表现 恢复，有望带动 2024 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 30.82 CNY [2] Core Views - The company achieved a 2023 revenue of 126.179 billion CNY, up 2.44% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 10.58% YoY to 10.429 billion CNY [1] - In 2023, the company's liquid milk, milk powder, and dairy products, and cold beverage segments generated revenues of 85.54 billion CNY, 27.598 billion CNY, and 10.688 billion CNY, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 0.72%, 5.09%, and 11.72% [1] - The company's net profit margin increased by 0.61 pct to 8.26% in 2023, driven by rational marketing expenses and lower milk prices [1] - In Q1 2024, the company's revenue declined by 2.58% YoY, mainly due to inventory reduction efforts, but net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 63.84% YoY [1] - The company aims for a 2024 revenue target of 130 billion CNY, representing a 3.03% YoY growth, with a dividend payout ratio of 73.25% in 2023, increasing to 79.94% after accounting for share repurchases [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to 130.153 billion CNY, 136.876 billion CNY, and 143.54 billion CNY in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 3.15%, 5.17%, and 4.87% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 13.079 billion CNY, 12.387 billion CNY, and 13.178 billion CNY in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 25.42%, -5.29%, and 6.38% [1] Financial Ratios - The company's ROE is projected to be 19.8%, 16.2%, and 15.2% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - The net profit margin is expected to improve to 10.0%, 9.0%, and 9.1% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - The P/E ratio is forecasted to be 13.77, 14.54, and 13.67 in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4]