中泰证券（600918）发布研报称，"对等关税"对我国经济总量和结构上影响是深刻的，分析了"对等关 税"对我国银行业的影响机制，总体上，对银行的贷款需求和净息差带来额外压力，同时资产质量能保 持稳健；对银行业影响可控。"对等关税"背景下，银行股红利属性凸显，建议积极关注银行股的投资价 值，关注大行、招行和优质城农商行。 "对等关税"对我国资产质量影响：压力不大，能保持稳健。1、出口相关客群：制造业和个人经营贷受 关税影响更为直接，上市银行制造业和个人经营贷合计占比17.7%，结合对美出口占比14.7%，则相关 领域最大敞口为2.6%。2、其他风险客群：地产：压力最大时期已过，未来取决于银行自暴露和处置节 奏；城投通过化债化解风险：层级提升、压力改善，未来延续时间换空间的方式；零售：政策支撑下预 计不良抬头趋势有改善。3、中长期稳健持续：银行大部分客群有政策支撑(国家信用)，资产质量压力 不大。 中泰证券主要观点如下： 投资建议：红利属性凸显，关注银行股投资价值。对等关税"背景下，银行股红利属性凸显，建议积极 关注银行股的投资价值，关注大行、招行和优质城农商行。一季度国债收益率上行的趋势面临边际变 化，银行板块 ...

公募基金费率改革影响下，券商2 0 2 4年的基金分仓佣金收入首份榜单出炉。 天相投顾统计数据显示，2 0 2 4年，券商分仓佣金收入为1 0 6 . 5 2亿元，较2 0 2 3年的1 6 4 . 6 6亿元 下 降 了 3 5% ， 呈 现 " 三 连 降 " 态 势 。 2 0 2 2 年 、 2 0 2 3 年 ， 券 商 分 仓 佣 金 收 入 的 同 比 降 幅 分 别 为 1 5%、11%。 分仓佣金规模下滑主要有两方面原因，一是公募基金股票交易量在下降 ，据天相投顾统计， 2 0 2 4年公募基金的股票交易量为2 0 . 5 1万亿元，较2 0 2 3年的2 2 . 3 4万亿元减少了约8%； 二是 公募基金证券交易佣金率降幅明显 ，2 0 2 3年的佣金率为万分之7 . 3 7，而2 0 2 4年佣金率约为万 分之5 . 1 9。 2 1 世 纪 经 济 报 道 记 者 注 意 到 ， 分 仓 佣 金 " 蛋 糕 " 缩 小 的 过 程 中 ， 各 家 券 商 的 收 入 表 现 呈 现 分 化。 以大中型券商为例，同比口径下，2 0 2 4年，华泰证券、广发证券、浙商证券的分仓佣金收入 降 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The demand side has seen some improvement, and the fundamentals are basically stable. The futures market shows no obvious contradictions and is generally in a volatile market. However, as the delivery date approaches and the first round of warehouse receipt registration is due, attention should be paid to the influence of emotional capital. In the short term, the market is expected to remain volatile under the current real - world contradictions. It is crucial to focus on the downstream start - up and port inventory levels. [17] Summary by Directory Part 1: Log Overview Supply - side - Foreign supply: In the week of March 28, 2025, the number of arriving ships was 17, a decrease of 2 compared to the previous week; the arrival volume was 33.43 million cubic meters, a decrease of 8.52 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs was 181.71 million cubic meters, an increase of 16.71 million cubic meters compared to the previous month, but a 7% year - on - year decrease. The import volume of radiata pine was 126.00 million cubic meters, an increase of 17.00 million cubic meters compared to the previous month, with a 1% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the arrival volume in China will remain stable with a slight increase in March and April [7]. Demand and Inventory - side - Demand: The weekly shipment volume nationwide was 46.90 million cubic meters, an increase of 2.0 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. The downstream apparent demand has recovered to a certain extent. Although the terminal real - estate start - up rate has decreased month - on - month, the demand remains stable in the short term. - Inventory: The inventory of radiata pine was 332.5 million cubic meters, a decrease of 5.0 million cubic meters compared to the previous week; the inventory of spruce was 25 million cubic meters, a decrease of 8.8 million cubic meters. Overall, the inventory shows a slight accumulation trend due to the increase in arrivals and relatively weak downstream demand [9]. Price and Spread - Price: The FOB price of radiata pine decreased by 5 US dollars per cubic meter to 116 US dollars per cubic meter; the FOB price of spruce remained unchanged at 121 euros per cubic meter. The spot price of logs has started to decline weakly under the situation of strong supply and weak demand. The price of wood planks remained stable this week. - Spread: The spot spread is relatively stable. As of last Friday, the futures market was at a premium of 39 yuan per cubic meter to the 3.9m medium - grade A radiata pine (spot measurement) and at a discount of about 35 - 45 yuan per cubic meter to the 3.9m medium - grade A radiata pine (national standard measurement) [11][13]. Cost and Profit - Cost: The import cost of radiata pine was 1050 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 9 yuan per cubic meter compared to the previous week; the import cost of spruce was 1123 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 9 yuan per cubic meter. - Profit: The import profit of radiata pine was - 63 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 22 yuan per cubic meter compared to the previous week; the import profit of spruce was - 93 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 9 yuan per cubic meter. Overall, the profit of logs and wood planks is expected to show a weak trend [15]. Strategy Recommendation The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term. It is recommended to focus on the downstream start - up and port inventory [17]. Part 2: Log Balance Sheet The report provides a log balance sheet from August 23, 2024, to March 28, 2025, including data on arrivals, shipments, inventory, and supply - demand differences [19][20]. Part 3: Log Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - side - New Zealand log shipment volume: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Log import: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Import by tree species: No specific data presented in the provided content. Demand - side - Log daily shipment volume: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Real estate: No specific data presented in the provided content. Downstream Analysis - Wood plank analysis - Price: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Wood plank analysis - Profit: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Downstream substitutes - Aluminum alloy analysis: No specific data presented in the provided content. Inventory - side - Inventory - Summary: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Inventory - By tree species: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Inventory - By region: No specific data presented in the provided content. Part 4: Cost and Profit The import cost and profit of logs are analyzed, but no specific data is presented in the provided content. Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis Log FOB Price The FOB prices of radiata pine and spruce are analyzed, and relevant price trends from 2024 to 2025 are presented [83][84][85][86][87][88]. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Prices The price seasonality of radiata pine and spruce is analyzed, but no specific data is presented in the provided content. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Spreads The spread seasonality of radiata pine and spruce is analyzed, but no specific data is presented in the provided content. Basis between Radiata Pine and LG The basis between radiata pine and LG is analyzed, but no specific data is presented in the provided content. Seasonal Chart and Inter - monthly Spread of LG Main Contracts The seasonal chart and inter - monthly spread of LG main contracts are analyzed, but no specific data is presented in the provided content.

十强席位略有变化 中信证券依旧是 "一哥" 据iFinD数据显示，截至目前，共有22家上市券商发布了2024年财报，其中15家券商实现营业收入的增 长，7家券商出现了营业收入的下滑。 截至3月31日收盘，目前已有22家上市券商披露2024年财报。数据显示，一共有15家券商实现了营收、 净利润的同比"双增长"，占比达到了68.18%。 从总营收的角度来看，强者恒强，2023年券商营收排行榜前十的券商在2024年依旧稳居前十。不过海通 证券的"离场"，空出了一个十强位置，目前由东方证券占据。在净利润方面，2023年位列前十的国信证 券暂未公布业绩，东方财富则强势跻身十强。 营收： 从总营收的角度来看，十强的席位依旧是熟悉的面孔。除了海通证券外，2023年十强"选手"外的其余9 家券商悉数在榜。 取代海通证券位置的是同样来自上海的东方证券，其营业收入达到了191.90亿元，同比增长12.29%。这 一次更迭，或许也将改变 "沪上三剑客"的说法。 | | | 2024年首批券商财报营业收入情况 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票简称 | 营业收入(亿元 ...

| | | | 2 | 华泰联合 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2 | 中信证券 广司 | TITU 3 | | 4 | 、东兴证券TONWOOD TREE | | | 4 | 申万宏源 | 2 | | 4 | 中信建投 | 2 | | 7 | 华安证券 | 1 | | 7 | 广发证券 | 1 | | 7 | 国元证券 | 1 | | 7 | 平安证券 | 1 | | 7 | 申港证券 | 1 | | | 天风证券 | 1 | | 7 | 招商证券 | 1 | | 76 | 中金公司 | FOT 1 . | | 1 | 中国银河TONW( | on TREE | | 7 | 中泰证券 | 1 | | 7 | 中银国际 | 1 | | | 信计 | 27 | 二、律师事务所业绩排名 2025年1-3月，共有16家律师事务所为这27家新上市公司IPO提供了法律服务。 文/梧桐数据中心 随着3月28日开发科技（920029）在北交所上市，2025年1-3月A股合计新上市公司27家，其中沪市主板4家、科创板5家、深市主板3家、创业板12家、北交所3家。 相较去年同期的30家，同比下降10% ...

2024年，中国证券行业在经历市场波动后，迎来了业绩的分化与回暖。截至3月底，已有10家上市券商 披露了2024年年报，整体来看，半数以上券商实现了归母净利润的增长，但各机构之间的业绩表现差异 显著。其中，自营业务成为推动券商业绩回暖的核心动力，而经纪、财富管理等业务也呈现出不同程度 的复苏。 业绩分化：头部券商领跑，中小券商表现各异 投行业务承压：IPO及再融资市场变化影响显著 与自营和经纪业务相比，券商投行业务在2024年普遍承压。受IPO及再融资市场规模变化影响，7家上 市券商的投行业务收入同比下降，降幅最高超过40%。然而，仍有部分券商逆势增长。南京证券的投行 业务收入达1.88亿元，同比增长17.03%；信达证券（601059）的投行业务收入为1.56亿元，同比增长 11.74%。 展望未来：市场预期积极，业绩改善趋势有望延续 市场机构对券商基本面修复的预期较为积极。开源证券非银金融行业首席分析师高超认为，券商2024年 四季度业绩有望超预期，目前券商板块估值水平仍偏低，2025年上半年业绩有望延续同比改善趋势。山 西证券（002500）非银金融团队也表示，在相关政策引领下，市场表现逐步企稳，202 ...

21世纪经济报道 记者 钟雯清 实习生 张长荣 广州报道 伴随着去年9月以来A股的回暖，不少券商业绩企稳回升。不过，并非所有券商皆传出佳音，坐落于山 东济南的中泰证券，2024年成绩单即不太乐观。 年报显示，2024年，其实现营业收入108.91亿元，同比减少14.66%；实现归母净利润9.37亿元，同比减 少47.92%。这与2024年业绩预告中，多数券商业绩预喜形成鲜明对比。 投资业务收入锐减，成为中泰证券业绩下滑的最大"元凶"。其2024年投资业务实现营业收入10.18亿 元，同比下降了45.73%。 此外，投行业务是另一大"拖累项"。年报显示，中泰证券投资银行业务实现营业收入8.71亿元，同比减 少30.61%。尤为值得关注的是，中泰证券的投行利润率正在快速下降。其2024年投行利润率，已经不 足2021年高峰期的半数。 投资收入锐减成最大"拖累项" 投资业务收入急剧下滑，是中泰证券净利几近腰斩的最重要因素。 2024年，中泰证券投资业务实现营业收入10.18亿元，同比下降45.73%。其中，下滑最明显的是投资收 益和公允价值变动收益。公允价值变动收益为-7.40亿元，同比锐减151.29%。 对此， ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2024 annual report of Zhongtai Securities highlights significant growth in revenue and profit, driven by the integration of Wanji Fund and successful alternative investments, with a notable increase in wealth management and asset management services [2][8]. Performance Overview - In 2024, Zhongtai Securities achieved operating revenue of 10.891 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 937 million yuan, with a profit total of 1.262 billion yuan [2]. - Excluding the impact of Wanji Fund and alternative investments, the profit total increased by over 25% year-on-year [2]. Wealth Management Business - The wealth management segment generated revenue of 3.772 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.36% [3]. - The company added 1.0508 million new accounts, a 93% increase compared to the previous year, significantly surpassing the industry average [3]. - By the end of 2024, Zhongtai Securities served 9.5207 million clients and managed assets totaling 1.36 trillion yuan [3]. Asset Management Performance - The asset management business reported revenue of 2.266 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.69% [8]. - Wanji Fund's management scale reached nearly 500 billion yuan, growing by approximately 27% year-on-year, with 160 public funds under management [8]. IPO and Underwriting Achievements - In a challenging market, Zhongtai Securities ranked 5th in A-share IPO approvals and 6th in issuance, achieving its best historical ranking [5][6]. - The company maintained a top 10 position in various equity business metrics for four consecutive years, including IPOs and convertible bonds [6]. Bond and Asset Securitization - Zhongtai Securities ranked 15th in the industry for bond issuance, with a total financing scale of 213.784 billion yuan [6]. - The company excelled in specific areas, ranking 7th in the issuance of targeted tools and maintaining a strong market presence in Shandong province [7]. Technological and Financial Innovations - The company is enhancing its research capabilities and has initiated the construction of an ETF ecosystem, aiming to improve client investment experiences [4]. - Zhongtai Securities has also launched new financial products, including family trust services, to cater to high-net-worth clients [3].

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: Goldman Sachs expresses optimism about Chinese assets, stating that the market still has room for further growth as investor interest in Chinese stocks is at its highest since early 2021 [3] - Goldman Sachs reports that the MSCI China and Hang Seng Tech indices have risen by 16% and 23% respectively, significantly outperforming developed and emerging markets [3] - Global equity funds are actively seeking investment options outside the US market, with China being a potential choice due to its liquidity, valuation, and diversification advantages [3] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley has raised its target for the Hang Seng Index to 25,800 points by the end of the year, indicating a potential upside of 9% from current levels [5] - The target prices for other indices have also been adjusted upwards, including the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the MSCI China Index, all reflecting a similar 9% increase [5] Group 3 - Zhongtai Securities suggests maintaining a "high-low switch" investment strategy, focusing on avoiding high-leverage and high-valuation small-cap tech stocks while paying attention to safety assets like non-ferrous metals, military, and nuclear power [7] - The report indicates that the market may experience wide fluctuations at high levels, with accelerated sector rotation before entering an adjustment phase [7]

21世纪经济报道记者柳宁馨 实习生王梓欣 杭州报道 3月17日，在国新办新闻发布会上，国家发展改革委副主任李春临介绍，日前出台的《提振消费专项行 动方案》注重供需两端综合发力、统筹促消费和惠民生、强化消费政策协同。 政府工作报告把大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求列为今年各项重点任务之首，并明 确提出实施提振消费专项行动。 根据国家统计局公布数据，今年前2个月，我国社会消费品零售总额同比增长4%，比上年全年加快0.5 个百分点。其中，消费品"以旧换新"政策带动了相应品类商品零售额较快增长。 《21世纪》：今年1-2月份，社会消费品零售总额83731亿元，同比增长4.0%，延续修复态势，当前消 费结构中有哪些重要支撑？今年消费对经济增长的重要性是什么？ 李迅雷：去年社会消费品零售总额同比增长了3.5%，今年前两个月同比增长4%，有0.5%的上升，说明 目前整体消费复苏势头不错，从去年第四季度以来，消费出现了一定的回升。 如何提振消费信心？提高中低收入者收入的可行途径有哪些？围绕这些问题，21世纪经济报道专访了中 泰证券首席经济学家李迅雷。在他看来，财政在进行补贴的时候，要论证计算多大的财政增量投入可 ...