| | | | | | | 机构专用 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 2025-12-12 | 江苏银行 | 证券代码 --------- 600919 | 成交价(元) 成交盒额(万元) 成交量(*) 买入营业部 10.39 543.92 | 52.35 | 国泰海通运营股份 | | 卖出营业部 | 是否为专场 180 | 12月12日，江苏银行大宗交易成交52.35万股，成交额543.92万元，占当日总成交额的0.26%，成交价 10.39元，较市场收盘价10.39元持平。 ...

Core Points - The city commercial bank sector experienced a decline of 0.23% on December 12, with Hangzhou Bank leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3889.35, up 0.41%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13258.33, up 0.84% [1] Summary by Category Stock Performance - Hangzhou Bank closed at 15.12, down 0.92% with a trading volume of 543,600 shares and a transaction value of 824 million yuan [2] - Qilu Bank closed at 5.63, down 0.71% with a trading volume of 1,165,000 shares and a transaction value of 657 million yuan [2] - Qingdao Bank closed at 4.58, down 0.65% with a trading volume of 370,100 shares and a transaction value of 169 million yuan [2] - Chongqing Bank closed at 10.84, down 0.64% with a trading volume of 118,200 shares and a transaction value of 129 million yuan [2] - Chengdu Bank closed at 16.35, down 0.49% with a trading volume of 390,900 shares and a transaction value of 642 million yuan [2] - Lanzhou Bank closed at 2.32, down 0.43% with a trading volume of 529,700 shares and a transaction value of 123 million yuan [2] - Xiamen Bank closed at 7.56, down 0.26% with a trading volume of 358,000 shares and a transaction value of 270 million yuan [2] - Ningbo Bank closed at 27.72, down 0.25% with a trading volume of 215,400 shares and a transaction value of 596 million yuan [2] - Changsha Bank closed at 9.48, down 0.21% with a trading volume of 321,800 shares and a transaction value of 306 million yuan [2] - Jiangsu Bank closed at 10.39, down 0.19% with a trading volume of 1,989,400 shares and a transaction value of 2.066 billion yuan [2] Capital Flow - The city commercial bank sector saw a net outflow of 9.0898 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 230 million yuan [4] - Speculative funds experienced a net outflow of 2.21 billion yuan [4]

热气腾腾的餐馆、排起长龙的小吃店……餐饮消费不仅关乎百姓日常生活，是彰显城市烟火气与经济活 力的"晴雨表"，更是拉动内需、稳定就业的关键领域。江苏银行积极响应江苏省促餐饮消费号召，独家 冠名"我是厨神"系列活动，将金融服务深度融入餐饮场景，通过"金融+美食"一系列惠民助商活动，激 发消费潜力，服务社会民生。 独家冠名专项活动，江苏银行赋能"苏味"新生态 江苏银行紧抓消费脉搏，以消费者端"消费数币红包+支付立减活动"集合商户端"信贷+结算+引流"，为 美食消费优惠加码，为民生"烟火气"贡献金融力量。 在消费者端，通过江苏银行App打造"我是厨神"专区，为超2200万客户提供"探江苏美食、投厨神榜 单、看活动直播、领餐饮优惠、抽苏超好礼"的一站式服务，以美食集市、美食寻访、探店打卡等多种 形式，促进线下餐饮消费闭环。通过"百县千味"美食品鉴、社媒分享活动，不断推动"从厨房到餐桌"的 消费升级，形成"厨神专业引领、美食达人共创"的双轮驱动模式。推出"美食达人"专属金融产品，发行 蚂蚁宝藏信用卡"美食达人"版，为每位消费者提供价值超600元的餐饮消费券等专属权益，让每一笔消 费都"吃"出超值惊喜。 坚守金融为民的初心 ...

江苏银行坚持金融为民初心，线上为淘宝、京东等平台的"苏品苏货"专区加大资源投入，全面升级促消费活动；线下江苏银行持续打造"苏品苏货"专属活 动，双十二期间加大支持，以精准导流、金融资源投入等方式，精准助力"苏品苏货"优质商品走进千家万户。 政银企携手，助力大宗消费升级。 江苏银行积极参与省商务厅开展的"汽车焕新"五走进活动，创新"金融+消费"服务模式，提供一站式购车方案、专属金融产品及千元购车礼包。双十二期 间，将围绕"汽车焕新"开展专场促消费活动，助力政银企协同推动消费升级。 加大投入，全场景抢抓双十二消费热潮 江苏银行聚焦餐饮、3C数码、家电等重点消费领域，以消费补贴、支付优惠等多种形式，助力提振消费，迎接即将到来的双十二等消费节，实实在在地让 利于民，促消费惠民生。 流量借势，为"苏品苏货"销售添增量 活动加码，发挥促消费杠杆效应 "加油江苏"有奖发票活动上线以来，江苏银行联合头部成品油公司推出站点开票激励政策，发布消费券使用攻略，带动活动参与度与数据规模双提升。"促 消费"是今年的关键词，江苏银行再次以实际行动、实在投入、实用活动，以"金融+非金融"的组合拳，为拉动内需、提振消费赋能，服务社会民生。 ...

江苏银行始终坚持把项目储备作为资产投放的基础，坚持以客户持续增长带动储备稳健增长、信贷有序 投放。近年来，我行按照"做大储备、做优投放"的思路，构建起全年常态化项目储备机制，通过积极开 展拓客强基工程，持续夯实客户基础，加强项目储备力度。今年下半年开始，集中推进2026年项目储 备，紧跟政策导向，围绕新质生产力发展、金融"五篇大文章"等重点领域做实储备，目前整体进度符合 预期。 天眼查资料显示，江苏银行股份有限公司成立于 2007年01月22日，是一家以从事货币金融服务为主的 企业。截至2025年09月30日，江苏银行股东户数159305户，较上次增加20480户，户均持股市值119.92 万元，户均持股数量11.52万股。 2025年12月11日，江苏银行披露接待调研公告，公司于09月01日至11月30日接待睿远基金、申万宏源证 券、中金公司、美银证券、兴业证券、国泰海通证券等137家机构调研。 江苏银行（600919）股价报10.41元，较前一交易日收盘价上涨0.04元，涨幅为0.39%，总市值1910.37亿 元。从行业市盈率来看，江苏银行所处的银行行业滚动市盈率平均7.46倍，行业中值5.99倍，江苏 ...

Economic News - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third rate cut since 2025 [1] - Vietnam's National Assembly amended the mineral law to prohibit the export of rare earth ores starting January 1, 2026, emphasizing strict control over exploration and processing [1] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security held a seminar in collaboration with the International Labour Organization [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the importance of pilot innovation in manufacturing as a key link connecting innovation, technology, and industry [1] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to enhance policy support for the retail industry's innovation and transformation during the 15th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The Ministry of Commerce will work with local governments to implement policies to stabilize foreign trade and promote market diversification [1] - The China Textile Import and Export Chamber reported that yarn and fabric exports reached $69.18 billion from January to October 2025, a 2.1% year-on-year increase [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue special government bonds due in 2025, with a total face value of CNY 400 billion for the first phase and CNY 350 billion for the second phase [1] - The National Internet Information Office is conducting a special campaign to rectify online chaos in the automotive industry [1] - The Ministry of Education reported an increase in the number of students returning from studying abroad, with 495,000 expected to return in 2024, a 19.1% increase from 2023 [1] Company News - Pop Mart announced changes in its board of directors, with new appointments effective December 10, 2025 [4] - Kweichow Moutai announced a cash dividend of CNY 23.957 per share, totaling CNY 30 billion, with the ex-dividend date on December 19 [4] - Nanjing Highway plans to invest up to CNY 9.033 billion in the construction of the Nanyang Yangtze River Bridge southern connection project [4] - ZTE Corporation is in communication with the U.S. Department of Justice regarding compliance investigations related to the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act [4] - Oracle reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $16.1 billion, a 14% year-on-year increase, with cloud revenue of $8 billion, a 34% increase, but below market expectations [4] Transportation Industry - The transportation sector has shown signs of recovery, with the strong cycle sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies [5] - The focus for 2026 will remain on sectors benefiting from anti-involution and high certainty stocks, with a long-term impact expected from these policies [6] - The express delivery industry has seen a recovery in profitability, with rising prices and a reduction in low-price competition [7] - The airline sector has improved performance due to lower oil prices and better management of ticket pricing, with a cautious approach to aircraft procurement expected to continue [8] - The highway sector has experienced significant stock price adjustments, with a focus on high dividend yield and low debt ratio companies expected to gain more attention [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant improvement in the cost of liabilities for banks in 2025, with a notable decrease of 28 basis points (bp) in the first half of the year, compared to only 4 bp in the same period last year. This improvement is primarily driven by reductions in deposit and interbank liabilities costs, contributing 19 bp and 7 bp respectively [3][11]. - The net interest margin (NIM) is expected to decline by approximately 5 bp in 2026, with the downward pressure on margins continuing to ease marginally, suggesting that some banks may stabilize their NIMs [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Liability Cost Improvement in 2025 - The first half of 2025 saw a significant reduction in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities, with the cost rate dropping to 1.70%, a decrease of 28 bp from 2024. This was supported by improvements in both deposit and interbank liability costs [11]. 2. Liability Side: Deposit Maturity and Repricing Benefits 1) **Term Structure**: The proportion of long-term deposits entering the repricing cycle has increased, with the share of deposits with a remaining maturity of 1-5 years declining by 1.5 percentage points (pct) to 22.6% by the end of Q2 2025. Some banks, such as those in Ningbo and Chongqing, experienced declines exceeding 10 pct [4]. 2) **Price Factors**: Regulatory focus on maintaining reasonable NIM levels has increased, with expectations of further interest rate cuts. The maximum reduction for three-year deposits could exceed 100 bp, indicating substantial room for cost improvement [5]. 3. Asset Side: Yield Pressure Expected to be Better than 2025 1) **Loans**: The repricing pressure on loans is expected to ease, with the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) declining by only 10 bp in 2025, significantly less than the 50 bp drop the previous year [6]. 2) **Debt Replacement**: The shift from high-interest to low-interest debt is anticipated to have a limited impact on net interest margins, estimated to drag down margins by about 4 bp [6]. 3) **Bond Maturity**: The widening gap between new bond issuance rates and existing bond yields is expected to exert downward pressure on investment yields, with an estimated drag of 6 bp on margins from the reallocation of bonds maturing within one year [6]. 4. NIM Projections - The report forecasts a 5 bp decline in NIM for 2026, with the downward trend continuing to converge. The asset yield is expected to decrease by 17 bp, while the cost of liabilities is projected to improve by 13 bp, with deposit costs improving by 17 bp [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expectation that stock prices will outperform the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [40]. Core Insights - The growth of M2 is primarily driven by government and corporate leverage, with government leverage's contribution increasing from 23.9% in 2015 to 45.5% in 2025, while corporate leverage is expected to contribute 63.6% to M2 growth in 2025 [5][14]. - The report highlights a divergence between the social financing (社融) and M2 growth rates, indicating a liquidity accumulation in the financial system when the demand for financing from the real economy is insufficient, which can lead to a decline in bond yields [5][19]. - The expected social financing-M2 differential for 2026 is projected to be 0.56%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 33 basis points [32]. Summary by Sections M2 and Liquidity Analysis - M2 includes cash, personal deposits, corporate deposits, non-bank deposits, and deposits from non-deposit financial institutions. The main contributors to M2 growth are government and corporate leverage [5][13]. - The report discusses the relationship between the social financing-M2 differential and bond market performance, noting a shift in correlation since the second half of 2022 [5][19]. Social Financing Projections - For 2026, the report forecasts a total of 16.3 trillion yuan in new loans under the social financing framework, with a growth rate of 8.11% [32][34]. - The report anticipates that the net issuance of government bonds will reach 14.8 trillion yuan in 2026, with a focus on maintaining a proactive fiscal policy [34]. M2 Growth Forecast - The M2 growth rate for 2026 is projected at 7.55%, influenced by factors such as net fiscal deposits, the strengthening of the equity market, and cross-border capital flows [32][36].

Group 1 - The banking industry in 2026 will face a mixed external environment with strong macroeconomic resilience but insufficient effective demand, leading to continued moderate monetary policy and challenges in asset allocation due to a low interest rate environment [4][10] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a financial powerhouse, urging banks to leverage their resource endowments and deepen their strategic initiatives over the next five years [4][10][22] - The overall financial performance of listed banks is expected to improve in 2026, driven by the recovery of net interest income and non-interest income, with a projected net profit growth of 2.4% year-on-year [4][27] Group 2 - The net interest margin is expected to narrow by 6 basis points in 2026, with net interest income growth projected to rise to 4% compared to 0.3% in 2025 [4][27] - Non-interest income is anticipated to continue improving due to the recovery of wealth management opportunities and the fading impact of fee reductions from previous years [4][27] - The overall asset quality of the banking sector is expected to remain stable, with a focus on monitoring risks in the retail sector [4][27] Group 3 - The investment strategy emphasizes high dividend yields as a protective measure, with the banking sector's average dividend yield at 3.94%, providing a significant premium over ten-year government bonds [4][27] - Specific banks such as Chengdu Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Shanghai Bank are highlighted for their strong regional advantages and potential for continued dividend growth [4][27][34] - The report suggests that the active capital market will provide a potential boost to quality retail banks, enhancing their recovery prospects [4][27]

Economic News - In November 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, while the purchasing price index fell by 2.5% year-on-year. The average for January to November shows a decline of 2.7% for the producer price index and 3.1% for the purchasing price index compared to the same period last year [1] - The consumer price index for November 2025 increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with an average for January to November remaining flat compared to the previous year [1] - The United Nations reported that global trade is expected to exceed $35 trillion for the first time in 2025, with a projected growth of approximately 7% compared to last year [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts China's economic growth rate to reach 5% in 2025, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from previous estimates [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has revised the management measures for public service platforms in industrial technology, focusing on key industries such as new energy, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology [1] Company News - Haiguang Information has terminated its plan to merge with Zhongke Shuguang through a share exchange [4] - China Life Insurance reported total premiums exceeding 700 billion yuan as of November 30, 2025 [4] - SIRUI announced the termination of its plan to acquire shares of Aola and will resume trading on December 10, 2025 [4] - Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen has launched Qwen Code v0.3.0, enhancing its capabilities for developers [4] - Xiamen Airport is planning to acquire 100% equity of its controlling shareholder's subsidiary, Zhaoxiang Technology, using its own funds [4] Non-Bank Financial Sector - The recent adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies aims to enhance their long-term investment management capabilities and support the real economy [5][6] - Specific adjustments include lowering risk factors for certain stock indices and export credit insurance, which is expected to stabilize the capital market and improve the efficiency of insurance fund utilization [7][8] - The regulatory changes are anticipated to benefit major industry players and promote a balanced and healthy development of the equity market [9][10]