Core Insights - Non-interest income is a crucial component of banks' revenue structure, especially under pressure on net interest income, reflecting operational resilience [1] - In the first three quarters of this year, 42 listed banks in A-shares reported a total non-interest income of 1.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 58.3 billion yuan, or 5% year-on-year [1] - The growth in non-interest income is driven by the performance of wealth management businesses and the overall market activity, although investment income has been affected by fluctuations in the bond market [1][6] Non-Interest Income Growth - Among the 42 listed banks, 18 reported a year-on-year increase in non-interest income, with 16 banks seeing an increase in the proportion of non-interest income in total revenue [1][2] - Notably, Zijin Bank, Changshu Bank, and Zhangjiagang Bank, all from Jiangsu, showed remarkable growth rates of 54%, 35%, and 22% respectively, contributing significantly to their total revenues [2] - State-owned banks demonstrated strong growth in non-interest income, with Agricultural Bank, Postal Savings Bank, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank reporting double-digit growth rates [2][3] Fee and Commission Income - The total fee and commission income for the 42 listed banks reached 578.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with over 60% of banks reporting growth [4][5] - Notable increases in fee and commission income were observed in Changshu Bank and Ruifeng Bank, with growth rates exceeding 364% and 162% respectively [4] - State-owned banks also reported growth in fee and commission income, with major banks like China Merchants Bank seeing a 0.9% increase, driven by significant growth in various subcategories of income [5] Investment Income Trends - The investment net income for the 42 listed banks totaled 477 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21%, although this growth rate has slowed compared to the previous year [6] - The fluctuations in the bond market have particularly impacted the investment income of smaller banks, such as city commercial banks and rural commercial banks [6] - Analysts suggest that differences in client bases and operational strategies between state-owned and smaller banks are influencing their respective non-interest income growth [3][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance with revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders growing by 7.83% and 8.32% year-on-year respectively for the first three quarters of 2025. In Q3 alone, revenue and net profit increased by 7.93% and 8.84% year-on-year, indicating robust growth momentum [5] - The growth in performance is driven by dual optimization of scale and revenue structure, with net interest income in Q3 increasing by 20.60% year-on-year, and non-interest income (fees and commissions) rising by 24.45% year-on-year, significantly higher than the first half of the year [5] - As of the end of Q3, total assets grew by 24.68% compared to the beginning of the year, with deposits and loans also showing strong growth of 20.22% and 17.87% respectively [5] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue and net profit growth of 7.83% and 8.32% year-on-year. In Q3, the growth rates were 7.93% and 8.84% respectively [5] - The company’s revenue structure improved significantly, with Q3 net interest income growth accelerating by 4.25 percentage points compared to H1 [5] Asset and Liability Management - Total assets increased by 24.68% year-to-date, with deposits and loans growing by 20.22% and 17.87% respectively [5] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.84%, with a slight increase in the proportion of loans under special attention to 1.28% [5] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenue for 2025-2027 to be 877.07 billion, 960.49 billion, and 1,022.63 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.53%, 9.51%, and 6.47% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 343.49 billion, 367.27 billion, and 388.51 billion for the same period, with growth rates of 7.87%, 6.92%, and 5.78% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the five major city commercial banks listed in the A-share market in the Yangtze River Delta region shows significant differentiation in growth rates, business structures, and asset quality as of the third quarter of 2025. Asset Scale - As of September 30, 2025, Jiangsu Bank leads with total assets of 4.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 27.8% [2] - Ningbo Bank's total assets surpassed 3.5 trillion yuan for the first time, ranking second among city commercial banks [2] - Shanghai Bank continues to lag with a year-on-year asset growth of only 2% [2][13] Revenue and Profit - All five banks achieved year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 [3] - Jiangsu Bank (67.18 billion yuan), Ningbo Bank (54.98 billion yuan), and Nanjing Bank (41.95 billion yuan) ranked in the top three for revenue [3][4] - Jiangsu Bank's net profit reached 31.9 billion yuan, leading the group with an 8.9% increase [4][5] Interest Income - Nanjing Bank reported a remarkable 28.5% year-on-year increase in net interest income, reaching 25.21 billion yuan [6][7] - Jiangsu Bank and Ningbo Bank also showed strong growth in net interest income, with increases of 19.6% and 11.8%, respectively [8] Non-Interest Income - In the first three quarters of 2025, Ningbo Bank's fee and commission income grew by 29.3% to 4.85 billion yuan, surpassing Jiangsu Bank [9] - Shanghai Bank experienced a decline in non-interest income, with a 6.9% drop [9] Financial Investment Performance - Shanghai Bank's investment income increased by 58.5% to 16.78 billion yuan, the highest among the five banks, with investment income accounting for 40.77% of its revenue [10][11] - All banks faced losses in fair value changes, with Shanghai Bank reporting the highest loss of 3.26 billion yuan [10] Asset Quality - As of September 30, 2025, the non-performing loan ratio for Jiangsu Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Nanjing Bank remained stable between 0.76% and 0.84% [14][15] - Jiangsu Bank's non-performing loan ratio decreased by 0.05 percentage points compared to the end of the previous year [14] Capital Adequacy - Jiangsu Bank's core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio fell to 8.61%, the lowest among the five banks, and is less than one percentage point above the regulatory line [16] - Shanghai Bank maintained the highest core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio at 10.52%, showing a slight increase [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Jiangsu Bank, expecting the stock to outperform the market by over 20% within the next six months [13]. Core Insights - Jiangsu Bank reported a revenue of 67.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 30.6 billion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year [4][7]. - The bank's total asset scale grew by 27.8% year-on-year, with loans increasing by 17.9% and deposits by 22.5% [4][7]. - The bank's net interest income rose by 19.6% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in interest margin, while non-interest income saw a decline of 16.0% due to bond market volatility [7]. - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.84%, reflecting solid asset quality [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2025, the projected operating income is 85.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, and net profit is expected to reach 35.1 billion yuan, growing at 10.2% [6][11]. - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 14.5% in 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to be 1.91 yuan [6][11]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio is forecasted to decrease slightly to 0.88% by 2025, with a provision coverage ratio of 321% [10][11]. - The bank's credit cost is expected to decline to 0.80% by 2025, indicating improved asset quality management [11]. Growth Prospects - The bank is expected to benefit from regional advantages and ongoing retail transformation, which will enhance profitability and quality [9]. - The projected growth rates for loans and deposits are 11.4% and 15.0% respectively for 2025 [11].

Market Performance - The city commercial bank sector increased by 1.08% on November 3, with Shanghai Bank leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3976.52, up 0.55%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13404.06, up 0.19% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Shanghai Bank (601229) closed at 9.68, up 2.00% with a trading volume of 747,500 shares and a transaction value of 721 million [1] - Chongqing Bank (601963) closed at 10.86, up 1.78% with a trading volume of 174,200 shares [1] - Other notable performers include: - Changsha Bank (601577) at 9.73, up 1.67% - Ningbo Bank (002142) at 28.74, up 1.41% - Jiangsu Bank (616009) at 10.92, up 1.30% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The city commercial bank sector saw a net inflow of 280 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 18.1 million [2] - The main capital flow for individual stocks includes: - Beijing Bank (601169) with a net inflow of 85.45 million from institutional investors [3] - Chengdu Bank (601838) with a net inflow of 78.77 million from institutional investors [3] - Jiangsu Bank (601009) with a net inflow of 28.60 million from institutional investors [3]

Core Insights - The recent disclosure evaluation results for listed banks in China for the 2024-2025 period show that all listed banks received ratings of B or above, with 22 banks rated A, indicating a strong performance in information disclosure [1] Summary by Category Overall Ratings - All listed banks achieved a rating of B or higher, with 22 banks rated A, reflecting consistent performance compared to the previous year [1] - Only six banks experienced rating changes, with five banks improving their ratings and one bank, Shanghai Bank, experiencing a downgrade [1] Banks with Rating Changes - The following banks improved their ratings: - Zhangjiagang Bank - Hangzhou Bank - Huaxia Bank - Everbright Bank - Zhejiang Commercial Bank [1] - Shanghai Bank was the only bank to see a downgrade in its rating [1] Detailed Ratings - A selection of banks and their ratings includes: - Ping An Bank: A - Ningbo Bank: A - Agricultural Bank of China: A - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China: A - Shanghai Bank: B (downgraded) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of listed banks in Q1-Q3 2025 slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue growth remaining stable and profit growth showing a slight increase [1][2] Performance Overview - Listed banks' revenue growth year-on-year is stable at 0.9%, while profit growth has increased to 1.6%. The weighted revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.9% and 1.6% respectively, with a slight slowdown in growth compared to H1 2025 [2][3] - Large banks showed a comprehensive performance turnaround, while the performance of small and medium-sized banks was mixed. Agricultural Bank, Bank of Communications, China Bank, and Industrial Bank performed better than expected, while China Construction Bank experienced a significant decline in quarterly interest margin [2][3] Driving Factors - Asset scale growth for listed banks in Q1-Q3 2025 was 9.3%, a slowdown of 0.3 percentage points compared to H1 2025. Loan growth decreased while financial investment growth increased [3] - The interest margin stabilized in Q3 2025, with a slight increase of 0.3 basis points to 1.37%. The asset yield decreased by 7 basis points to 2.81%, while the cost of liabilities decreased by 8 basis points to 1.56% [4] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income for listed banks grew by 5.0% year-on-year, but the growth rate decreased by 2.0 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. Fee and commission income increased by 4.6% year-on-year, indicating some recovery in related business [5][6] - Bond trading income decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, with small and medium-sized banks experiencing a larger decline compared to state-owned banks [5][6] Asset Quality - The average non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.23%, while the average attention rate increased by 2 basis points to 1.69%. The retail sector continues to face pressure, particularly in small and micro loans [7][8] - The number of banks announcing mid-term dividends has increased, with some banks raising their mid-term dividend rates compared to the previous year [9] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Nanjing Bank, Shanghai Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Agricultural Bank, and Bank of Communications, with a focus on Qilu Bank and H-share large banks [9]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the credit growth rate, suggesting a shift towards quality improvement, with expectations for a recovery in corporate loan increments by 2026 [5][9]. Core Insights - Credit growth is expected to slow significantly starting in 2024, but the decline in growth rate is anticipated to moderate by 2026, with corporate loans likely to see a year-on-year increase [7][9]. - The relationship between credit growth and economic growth is weakening, emphasizing the need to optimize credit structure and reduce idle financial resources [9]. - The report highlights that the banking sector's total asset growth will outpace loan growth in 2025, driven by government bond supply and fiscal policies [9]. Summary by Sections Credit Growth Forecast - New RMB loans are projected at 21.3 trillion, 23.6 trillion, and 18.9 trillion yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, with a further estimate of 14.7 trillion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [9]. - For 2026, new loans are expected to be between 17.2 trillion and 17.7 trillion yuan, corresponding to a growth rate of 6.3% to 6.5% [9]. Loan Composition - In 2023, the total RMB loans are expected to reach 237.59 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.6% [8]. - Retail loans are projected to grow from 80.10 trillion yuan in 2023 to 82.84 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate decline from 5.7% to 3.4% [8]. - Corporate loans are anticipated to increase from 157.07 trillion yuan in 2023 to 171.01 trillion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.7% [8]. Regional Performance - Regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Sichuan, and Shandong are expected to continue outperforming the national average in loan growth due to strong economic performance and support from new policy financial tools [12]. Banking Sector Dynamics - The report notes that state-owned banks are expected to maintain a competitive edge due to lower funding costs and capital injections from the Ministry of Finance [12]. - The net interest margin is in a downward trend, but the rate of decline is expected to slow starting in 2025, with some smaller banks potentially stabilizing their margins by 2026 [13][17]. Asset Quality - As of Q2 2025, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for listed banks is reported at 1.25%, indicating a stable asset quality despite pressures on retail credit [37]. - The report emphasizes that while retail loan NPLs have increased since 2021, corporate loan clearances have improved significantly, providing a buffer against retail risks [37].

Core Insights - The CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility Index has shown a positive performance with a 0.58% increase, driven by significant gains in stocks such as Baosteel and China Construction Bank [1][4] - The CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF (515300) has also increased by 0.45%, indicating strong investor interest and market activity [1][3] Market Performance - The CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF recorded a turnover rate of 0.92% with a transaction volume of 43.38 million yuan, reflecting active trading [3] - The ETF's latest scale reached 4.704 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 37.74 million yuan over the past 17 trading days, indicating a positive trend in investor sentiment [3] Dividend Distribution - As of October 31, 2025, a total of 1,033 listed companies have announced cash dividend plans, an increase of 141 companies compared to the previous year, with total cash dividends amounting to 734.9 billion yuan [3] - Notably, 89 companies have declared dividends exceeding 1 billion yuan within the year [3] Investor Sentiment - Market sentiment indicators have returned to a neutral zone, but there remains a willingness among investors to "buy the dip," suggesting that adjustments may present further investment opportunities [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility Index account for 35.78% of the index, with companies like China Shenhua and Shuanghui Development leading the way [4][6] Stock Performance - The top performing stocks within the index include China Shenhua (up 1.93%), Shuanghui Development (up 1.59%), and China Petroleum (up 1.65%), while some stocks like Gree Electric and Huayu Automotive experienced declines [6] - Investors without stock accounts can access investment opportunities through the corresponding CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF linked fund (007606) [6]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Bank has made significant progress in its high-quality development journey, focusing on a stable risk control system, balanced growth in scale and efficiency, and innovative management practices since 2025 [1] Financial Performance - For the third quarter of 2025, Jiangsu Bank reported operating income of 67.183 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.83%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 30.583 billion yuan, up 8.32% year-on-year [2] - The annualized ROE was 15.87% and annualized ROA was 0.96%, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.84%, marking a historical low [2] - The bank's risk coverage ratio stood at 322.62%, indicating strong risk mitigation capabilities [2] Revenue Sources - Jiangsu Bank achieved net interest income of 49.868 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.61%, and fee and commission income of 5.421 billion yuan, up 7.88% [3] - The bank's total assets reached 4.93 trillion yuan, with loan balances of 2.47 trillion yuan (up 17.87% year-to-date) and deposit balances of 2.54 trillion yuan (up 20.22% year-to-date) [3] Corporate Lending - As of September, corporate loan balances reached 1.6641 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.26%, while corporate deposit balances grew by 20.75% to 1.4028 trillion yuan [4] - The bank is focusing on five key areas: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, to enhance financial services [4] Retail Banking - Jiangsu Bank's retail banking segment has seen significant growth, with total assets under management (AUM) surpassing 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 200 billion yuan [6] - The bank's mobile banking app has nearly 22 million customers, with monthly active users exceeding 7.6 million, leading among city commercial banks [5] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio is at 0.84%, down 0.05 percentage points from the beginning of the year, and the bank has maintained a downward trend in asset quality since its listing in 2016 [7] - The bank's risk management framework has been continuously improved, enhancing its risk control capabilities [7] Market Position - Jiangsu Bank has gained significant attention in the capital markets, with nearly 70 research reports published by analysts this year [8] - The bank ranks 56th in the "Global 1000 Banks" list and 16th among Chinese banks, reflecting its growing competitiveness [8]