Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baofeng Energy (600989.SH) [1] Core Views - The oil-coal price gap is expected to widen, enhancing the cost advantage of the Inner Mongolia project [1] - The company is positioned as a leading player in coal-to-olefins with significant cost advantages [21] - The profitability of the coke segment is anticipated to reach a bottom, with favorable policies potentially leading to a recovery in the industry [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Baofeng Energy achieved revenue of 291.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.48%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 56.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.34% [28] - The average selling price for polyethylene in 2023 was 7,083.48 yuan/ton, down 5.09% year-on-year, and for polypropylene, it was 6,758.90 yuan/ton, down 8.60% year-on-year [28] - The company expects revenues of 355 billion, 549 billion, and 591 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 74 billion, 144 billion, and 178 billion yuan [8] Production Capacity and Cost Advantages - The Inner Mongolia olefins project is set to begin trial production in October 2024, with a projected net profit of 2,811 yuan/ton for polyethylene, significantly higher than the Ningdong project [7] - The company has a total olefins capacity of 210 million tons/year, with plans for further expansion [44] - The report forecasts that the company's polyethylene and polypropylene segments will see substantial growth in gross profit over the next three years [44] Market Position and Industry Outlook - The report highlights the increasing domestic production capacity for polyethylene and polypropylene, which is expected to reduce reliance on imports [69] - The coke industry is currently experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, but recovery is anticipated due to new policies and increased demand from the steel sector [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of the coal-to-olefins segment as a key profit driver for the company [32]

宝丰能源 20240926 摘要 • 宝丰能源三季度经营受年终三期装置检修、行业供需变化导致产品价格波 动以及上游原材料价格波动影响，但公司整体经营仍保持稳定发展态势。 • 内蒙古项目预计于 10 月开始投产，首条生产线预计 12 月达到满负荷生产 状态，后续几条生产线将依次每个月推迟一个月完成试车和爬坡，预计明 年一季度可实现 300 万吨产能全部启动。 • 内蒙古项目相比宁夏项目具有煤炭成本、折旧成本和人工成本等方面的优 势，预计每吨产品可节省约 500 元。 • 公司将煤矿视为长期投资目标，但目前采矿价格较高，决策相对谨慎，会 综合考虑价格、区位及煤质等因素。新疆项目上游资源配套政策积极，当 地政府会为每个煤化工项目配套相应煤矿资源，但需要经过国家审批及招 拍挂程序，周期较长。 • 公司采取低库存销售策略，不积累过多库存，通过价格优惠来促进销售， 以确保灵活应对市场波动并保持资金流动性。 • 国内煤制烯烃的扩展窗口期基本上已经结束，新疆的建设可能是最后一轮 扩产。主要原因是双碳政策对高碳排放产业有严格限制，国家发改委对整 个烯烃产能实行严格控制，以及新疆水资源限制因素。 Q&A 宝丰能源近期的基本面情况 ...

证券代码：600989 证券简称：宝丰能源 公告编号：2024-046 宁夏宝丰能源集团股份有限公司 关于召开 2024 年半年度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 投资者可于 2024 年 09 月 10 日(星期二) 至 09 月 18 日(星期三)16:00 前登录 上 证 路 演 中 心 网 站 首 页 点 击 " 提 问 预 征 集 " 栏 目 或 通 过 公 司 邮 箱 bfny@baofengenergy.com 进行提问。公司将在说明会上对投资者普遍关注的问 题进行回答。 宁夏宝丰能源集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于 2024 年 8 月 13 日发布公司 2024 年半年度报告，为便于广大投资者更全面深入地了解公司 2024 年半年度经营成果、财务状况，公司计划于 2024 年 09 月 19 日上午 09:00-10:00 举行 2024 年半年度业绩说明会，就投资者关心的问题进行交流。 （三）会议召开方式：上证路演中心网络互动 三、 参加人员 公司总裁 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 16.897 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.09%, and a net profit of 3.305 billion yuan, up 46.44% year-on-year [4] - The significant increase in profitability is driven by reduced costs in coal-to-olefins production, with a net profit margin reaching 19.56%, an increase of 2.32 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company is progressing well with its projects in Inner Mongolia, which are expected to support future growth [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenues of 8.670 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.884 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 36.39% and 75.80% respectively [4] - Major products such as polyolefins and coke saw production increases of 87% and 3% year-on-year, respectively [4] - Polyethylene sales reached 575,000 tons, up 68.4% year-on-year, while polypropylene sales were 572,200 tons, up 79.2% year-on-year [4] Project Development - The company is advancing its Inner Mongolia project, which includes a 2.6 million tons/year coal-to-olefins project and a 400,000 tons/year green hydrogen coupling project, expected to be operational in 2024 [4] - The Ningdong Phase 3 project has commenced production, adding 1.5 million tons/year of methanol and 1 million tons/year of olefins capacity [4] - The company has also initiated preparations for the Ningdong Phase 4 olefins project [4] Future Projections - The company is expected to have EPS of 1.1, 1.7, and 1.9 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4] - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 39.351 billion yuan, 55.066 billion yuan, and 62.603 billion yuan, with growth rates of 35.06%, 39.94%, and 13.69% respectively [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q2 2024, with revenue of 16.897 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.305 billion yuan, up 46.44% year-on-year [4] - The company is advancing its Inner Mongolia project and has initiated an environmental assessment for its Xinjiang project, which includes significant production capacities for methanol and olefins [5][6] - The company has improved its cost structure by increasing the proportion of coal sourced from Xinjiang, which has led to a reduction in overall production costs [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.670 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 36.39% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.39% [4] - The net profit for Q2 2024 was 1.884 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 75.80% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 32.57% [4] - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 8.462 billion, 13.576 billion, and 15.046 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.02, 8.11, and 7.32 [6] Project Developments - The Inner Mongolia project is progressing as planned, with 70% of the investment already completed and the first production unit expected to start trial operations in October 2024 [5] - The Xinjiang coal-based olefin project has begun its environmental assessment, which is expected to enhance the company's long-term growth potential [5][6] Market Position - The company has increased its procurement of Xinjiang coal, which now accounts for nearly 7 percentage points more of its total coal usage compared to 2023, enhancing its cost advantages [4] - The polyethylene and polypropylene segments have seen improved margins due to supply constraints and favorable market conditions [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Baofeng Energy, with a target price of 20.06 CNY [2][8]. Core Views - In the first half of 2024, Baofeng Energy achieved operating revenue of 16.897 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 29.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.305 billion CNY, up 46.44% year-on-year [2]. - The second quarter saw significant performance improvement, with revenue reaching 8.67 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 36.39%, and a net profit of 1.884 billion CNY, up 75.80% year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights the positive impact of raw material price declines and improved price differentials in the olefin segment, contributing to overall revenue growth [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2024, Baofeng Energy reported a net profit of 3.305 billion CNY, with a non-recurring profit of -210 million CNY, including donations of 175 million CNY [2]. - Q2 2024 saw a net profit of 1.884 billion CNY, with a non-recurring profit of 2.034 billion CNY [2]. - The company’s EVA production capacity utilization was approximately 86% in Q2, contributing to performance growth [2]. Sales and Production Data - In Q2, the company sold 279,700 tons of polyethylene and 304,600 tons of polypropylene, with respective changes of -5.28% and +13.83% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The sales volume of coke reached 1.7935 million tons, up 2.52% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The report notes a significant increase in EVA sales, which reached 58,400 tons in Q2, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 342% [2]. Segment Analysis - The olefin segment benefited from rising olefin prices and falling raw material coal prices, with Q2 external purchase coal prices averaging 523 CNY/ton, down 77 CNY/ton quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The coke segment experienced a decline in both coke and coking coal prices, with Q2 external purchase coking coal prices at 1,074 CNY/ton, down 82 CNY/ton quarter-on-quarter [2]. Investment Projects - The Inner Mongolia olefin project is progressing as planned, with 70% of the investment already disbursed [2]. - The Xinjiang project has recently undergone its first public environmental impact assessment, indicating a significant future contribution to performance growth [2]. Profit Forecast - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2024-2026 at 8.631 billion CNY, 14.200 billion CNY, and 14.275 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13x, 8x, and 8x [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with revenue reaching 16.9 billion yuan, up 29.1% year-on-year, and net profit at 3.3 billion yuan, up 46.4% year-on-year [4][5] - The company's olefin segment showed strong performance with substantial revenue growth driven by increased production and sales volumes, particularly in polyethylene and polypropylene [4][5] - The company is expected to benefit from new project launches, including the Inner Mongolia project, which is anticipated to enhance growth potential [4][5] Financial Summary - Total shares outstanding: 7,333 million [2] - Market price: 15.32 yuan [2] - Market capitalization: 112.347 billion yuan [2] - Revenue forecast for 2024 is 39.333 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 35% year-on-year [4] - Net profit forecast for 2024 is 8.167 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 45% year-on-year [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 1.11 yuan [4] - The company maintains a leading position in the coal chemical industry, particularly in coal-to-olefins production [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Baofeng Energy (600989) with a target price of 21.00, down from the previous target of 21.41 [1][3]. Core Views - The recovery in polyolefin profitability and strong growth potential are highlighted, with significant capacity expansion projects underway [2][3]. - The company reported a revenue of 16.897 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.09%, and a net profit of 3.305 billion yuan, up 46.44% year-on-year [3]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw revenues of 8.670 billion yuan, a 36.39% increase year-on-year and a 5.39% increase quarter-on-quarter, with net profits reaching 1.884 billion yuan, up 75.80% year-on-year and 32.57% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The report notes that the domestic apparent consumption of polyolefins in H1 2024 was 37.06 million tons, a 3.3% increase year-on-year, indicating sustained demand growth [3]. Financial Summary - For H1 2024, the company achieved a polyolefin production of 1.2227 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 87% [3]. - The average prices for polyethylene and polypropylene in Q2 2024 were 7,300 yuan/ton and 6,794 yuan/ton, respectively, reflecting increases of 5.43% and 4.15% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.07 yuan, 1.75 yuan, and 1.82 yuan, respectively, revised down from previous estimates [3][4]. - The company’s total revenue is expected to grow from 35.514 billion yuan in 2024 to 56.333 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth rate of 58.6% [4]. Project Development - New projects are progressing steadily, with the Ningdong Phase III expected to commence production by the end of 2023 and the Inner Mongolia Phase I project scheduled for October 2024 [3]. - The company plans to construct a new materials project in Xinjiang with a capacity of 3.9 million tons/year of polyolefins, which will open up significant growth opportunities [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [13]. Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in revenue and profit in the first half of 2024, driven by the expansion of olefin production capacity and a rebound in polyolefin prices [2][3]. - The company's financial performance is bolstered by its cost advantages and the successful launch of new projects, which are expected to enhance profitability [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 16.897 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.09%, and a net profit of 3.305 billion, up 46.44% year-on-year [1]. - The overall gross margin for H1 2024 was 33.60%, an increase of 5.80 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023 [2]. - The company’s net profit margin improved to 19.56%, an increase of 2.32 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Production and Sales Summary - The olefin segment's revenue reached 7.902 billion, a year-on-year increase of 72.20%, with polyolefin production rising by 87% to 1.2227 million tons [3]. - Domestic demand for polyolefins grew steadily, with apparent consumption increasing by 3.3% year-on-year [3]. - The company’s focus on cost control and customer needs has allowed it to maintain stable production in the coke segment, despite a 3.40% decline in revenue [7]. Project Development Summary - The Ningdong Phase III olefin project has been successfully launched, and preparations for Phase IV are underway, contributing to the company's growth momentum [7][8]. - The Inner Mongolia project is progressing as planned, with significant milestones achieved, including the ignition of the first boiler [8]. - The company is also expanding its operations in Xinjiang, focusing on coal-based new materials and chemical products [8]. Future Earnings Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 39.379 billion, 55.294 billion, and 61.483 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 8.685 billion, 12.899 billion, and 14.589 billion [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2] - The target price is set at 21.00, down from the previous forecast of 21.41 [2] Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in polyolefin profitability, ensuring strong growth potential for the company [6] - The company achieved a revenue of 16.897 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.09%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.305 billion yuan, up 46.44% year-on-year [6] - The report notes that the company’s production capacity is expected to grow significantly, with projects in Inner Mongolia and Ningdong set to contribute to future growth [6] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 28.43 billion yuan, projected to increase to 35.514 billion yuan in 2024, representing a growth of 21.9% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was 6.303 billion yuan, expected to rise to 7.867 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 39.2% [6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 1.07 yuan, with further increases to 1.75 yuan in 2025 and 1.82 yuan in 2026 [6] Market Performance - The stock price has fluctuated between 13.16 and 17.84 yuan over the past 52 weeks [3] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 113.814 billion yuan [3] - The company’s net asset value per share is 5.46 yuan, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.8 based on the current price [4] Production and Pricing Insights - Polyolefin production in the first half of 2024 reached 1.2227 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 87% [6] - The average prices for polyethylene and polypropylene in Q2 2024 were 7,300 yuan/ton and 6,794 yuan/ton, respectively, with increases of 5.43% and 4.15% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The report indicates that the domestic apparent consumption of polyolefins in the first half of 2024 was 37.06 million tons, up 3.3% year-on-year [6]