Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai retreated to 103,000 yuan per ton, while London copper fluctuated around 13,155 USD [4][17] - The U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 198,000, significantly below market expectations, indicating a slowdown in the job market, but the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, leading to a cooling market sentiment [5][17] - The increase in copper warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange by 13,000 tons to 163,000 tons, while LME copper inventories decreased by 500 tons to 141,100 tons [5][17] - The State Grid expects investments during the 14th Five-Year Plan to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan [5][17] - Overall, macro sentiment adjustments and the postponement of key overseas mineral tariff investigations may exert pressure on recent prices, but pre-holiday stocking demand and raw material tightness may limit the downside for copper prices [5][17] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced an adjustment of nickel ore RKAB quotas to 250-260 million tons by 2026, which is expected to provide short-term support for nickel prices [6][18] - The nickel market lacks further supply-demand contradictions, and the tightening quota expectations have already been priced in [6][18] - The current strategy for nickel and stainless steel is to remain on the sidelines, with Shanghai nickel futures expected to trade between 140,000 and 160,000 yuan per ton [6][19] Group 3: Aluminum Market - The price of alumina has slightly declined, maintaining a downward trend in spot prices, with the 05 contract showing increased short positions [20] - The overall supply of alumina is excessive, with production slightly rebounding to around 96 million tons [20] - The market anticipates a continued decline in spot prices due to lower production costs and reduced concerns about large-scale production cuts in the alumina industry [20] - The 05 contract for alumina is expected to trade between 2,500 and 2,800 yuan per ton, with a recommendation to hold short positions [20][21] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc prices showed a slight upward trend, with the U.S. initial jobless claims decreasing and the New York manufacturing index returning to expansion territory [23] - Domestic TC prices are stabilizing at low levels, while overseas prices are also declining, leading to a slight recovery in the import supply [23] - The strategy for zinc is to remain observant, with the main contract expected to trade between 24,500 and 25,500 yuan per ton [23] Group 5: Lead Market - Lead prices showed a slight upward trend, with supply-side pressures easing due to adjustments in primary smelter maintenance plans [24] - The recycling of waste batteries is expected to decline, but the willingness of recyclers to maintain prices is increasing [24] - The strategy for lead is to operate within a range, with the main contract expected to trade between 17,000 and 18,000 yuan per ton [24] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced slight fluctuations, with gold, silver, and palladium showing minor pullbacks, while platinum saw slight gains [26] - The U.S. has temporarily refrained from imposing tariffs on key minerals, which has led to some profit-taking pressure in the market [26] - The overall market remains uncertain, with ongoing geopolitical tensions supporting safe-haven demand for precious metals [26]

Group 1: Corn Market - The corn futures for March reached a peak of 2300 CNY/ton, but the overall trend remains weak [4] - On January 12, the China National Grain Reserves Corporation's Jilin branch auctioned nearly 30,000 tons of corn, all sold at a premium. However, on January 15, only 20% of the 16,000 tons auctioned were sold, indicating a significant drop in transaction rate [4] - The Jilin branch plans to auction 71,000 tons on January 16, suggesting that market sentiment is still waiting to be released ahead of the Spring Festival [4] Group 2: Soybean Meal Market - The U.S. biofuel policy has released positive signals, leading to a surge in U.S. soybean oil prices, which in turn boosted soybean prices. However, the supply side of U.S. soybeans is unlikely to provide new positive drivers, shifting focus to demand changes and South American production [19] - As of January 14, 93.9% of Argentina's soybean planting is complete, with a quality rate of 61%, a decrease of 4 percentage points week-on-week. The Buenos Aires province's early soybeans are entering a critical growth stage, requiring soil moisture to maintain yield potential [19] - Recent active trading in imported soybeans and forward soybean meal contracts reflects increased replenishment willingness due to falling meal prices, indicating a structural tightness in the market despite overall ample supply [19] Group 3: Egg Market - The spot price of eggs in major production areas continues to rise, with the average price in Hebei's Guantao at approximately 3.33 CNY/jin, an increase of 0.09 CNY/jin from the previous day [21] - The strong spot price trend is driving near-month contracts higher, but uncertainties remain around the market dynamics before and after the Spring Festival [21] - The expected decline in stock levels is projected to continue into Q1 2026, with an anticipated drop to approximately 1.299 billion birds by April 2026 [21] Group 4: Live Pig Market - The average price of live pigs in major production areas is approximately 12.74 CNY/kg, with stable spot performance and near-month contracts recovering from previous discounts [23] - Data indicates a 0.36% month-on-month increase in breeding stock, while fattening stock decreased by 5.2% [23] - Market sentiment is improving as spot prices rise, with some optimistic producers showing reluctance to sell, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [23]

Group 1: Economic Support Measures - The central bank has implemented a "combination punch" to support high-quality economic development, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in re-lending and rediscount rates, indicating room for further cuts in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates this year [4][17]. Group 2: Trade and Export Statistics - According to customs statistics, China's foreign trade imports and exports are expected to reach 45.47 trillion yuan in 2025, a growth of 3.8%, with exports at 26.99 trillion yuan (up 6.1%) and imports at 18.48 trillion yuan (up 0.5%) [4][17]. - Cumulative steel exports in 2025 are projected to be 11,901.9 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, setting a new historical high [4][17]. Group 3: Steel Industry Performance - As of January 15, the average cost for 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,377 yuan per ton, with an average loss of 45 yuan per ton and a profit of 68 yuan per ton from low electricity costs [5][18]. - The profitability rate for 247 steel mills this week is 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points from the previous week, while daily molten iron production is 2.28 million tons, down by 1.49 million tons from last week [6][20]. Group 4: Steel Supply and Demand Dynamics - This week, the supply of five major steel products reached 8.19 million tons, a slight increase of 0.62 million tons (0.1% growth) week-on-week, while total inventory decreased by 69,100 tons (0.6% decline) to 12.47 million tons [7][20]. - The apparent consumption volume was 8.26 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.7% [20]. Group 5: Specific Steel Products Analysis - Rebar production decreased by 0.74 million tons to 1.903 million tons, with total inventory slightly down by 0.04 million tons to 4.3807 million tons, while demand increased by 15,280 tons to 1.9034 million tons [8][21]. - Hot-rolled coil production increased by 2.85 million tons to 3.0836 million tons, with inventory reduction of 5.8 million tons to 3.6233 million tons, and demand increased by 5.82 million tons to 3.1416 million tons [9][22]. Group 6: Market Outlook and Strategies - The short-term trading range for rebar is suggested to be between 3,100 and 3,200 yuan per ton, while hot-rolled coil is expected to trade between 3,250 and 3,350 yuan per ton [10][23]. - The alloy market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with overall supply remaining low and production slightly decreasing, while cost support remains stable [11][24].

格隆汇1月16日｜中信建投研报指出，政府债靠前发力+高基数下支撑力度减弱，社融同比少增，符合 预期。12月对公信贷投放边际改善，预计主要是银行开门红项目储备前置发力。零售信贷投放仍显低 迷，期待宏观经济修复与政策协同发力带动需求回升。高基数下M1增速持续回落，M2增速环比提升， M2-M1剪刀差扩大至4.7%。2026年延续了积极的财政政策基调以及相对宽松的货币政策，政府债仍将 是社融增长重要动能。预计2026年信贷增速仍将保持在7%-8%左右，银行基本面的真正改善仍需等待信 贷需求和经济预期的进一步好转。 ...

人民财讯1月16日电，中信建投指出，2025年12月社融新增2.21万亿，同比少增0.65万亿。政府债靠前发 力+高基数下支撑力度减弱，社融同比少增，符合预期。12月对公信贷投放边际改善，预计主要是银行 开门红项目储备前置发力。零售信贷投放仍显低迷，期待宏观经济修复与政策协同发力带动需求回升。 2026年延续了积极的财政政策基调以及相对宽松的货币政策，政府债仍将是社融增长重要动能。预计 2026年信贷增速仍将保持在7%—8%左右，银行基本面的真正改善仍需等待信贷需求和经济预期的进一 步好转。 转自：证券时报 ...

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 中信建投研报指出，器械集采政策优化、设备招标数据持续改善、渠道库存逐步下降等趋势下，医 疗器械细分板块陆续迎来业绩拐点。其中高值耗材板块在集采政策持续优化的背景下，板块估值和业绩 确定性有望迎来修复。同时，我们看好国产医疗器械出海，国际业务长期空间大的公司也有望迎来估值 重塑。我们还看好医疗器械板块的科技创新投资机会，AI医疗、脑机接口、手术机器人、外骨骼机器 人等也有望成为投资人重点关注的新科技方向。 （责任编辑：贺翀 ） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that A-shares are expected to see significant incremental capital by 2026, which may sustain a slow bull market [1] - The first quarter is identified as a peak period for the maturity of time deposits, suggesting that funds may flow from insurance and wealth management channels into the equity market, marking the most abundant time for incremental capital throughout the year [1] - Long-term and medium-term funds are projected to account for about one-third of total capital inflows, becoming a key foundation for micro liquidity in A-shares [1] Group 2 - Public and private equity funds are expected to be the two major areas of marginal improvement, with their allocation preferences potentially influencing market style performance [1] - The main market contradiction in 2026 is anticipated to shift towards verifying economic prosperity and achieving performance results, with long-term funds providing a safety net [1] - Active funds such as public and private equity are likely to further strengthen the dual main line market trend of "technology + resource products," while sector rotation may accelerate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to welcome a significant amount of incremental funds in 2026, which may sustain a slow bull market. The first quarter is projected to be the peak period for the maturity of fixed deposits, with funds likely flowing from insurance and wealth management channels into the equity market, marking the most abundant time for incremental funds throughout the year [3][4][62]. Group 1: Incremental Funds Sources - Incremental funds are primarily sourced from the migration of household deposits and pressures from asset scarcity, with insurance premium income continuing to grow significantly. By Q3 2025, the equity allocation ratio is expected to rise to 15.5%, nearing historical highs, which could release over 840 billion yuan into the market [4][6][66]. - The total amount of fixed deposits maturing in 2026 is estimated to be around 45 trillion yuan, which will likely lead to increased allocations in wealth management and "fixed income+" products, contributing over 900 billion yuan in medium to long-term funds to the A-share market [4][14][17]. - Public funds are expected to see a net inflow of approximately 230 billion yuan in 2026, driven by the recovery of fund net values and the enhanced motivation of individual investors to enter the market [4][33][34]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market's main contradictions in 2026 will shift towards verifying economic prosperity and performance realization, with medium to long-term funds providing a safety net. Active funds from public and private sectors are anticipated to further strengthen the "technology + resource products" dual mainline market, with accelerated sector rotation [4][62][64]. - The "national team" funds are expected to see a significant reduction in inflows, with a projected net inflow of about 200 billion yuan in 2026, as their role shifts in a bull market environment [19][22][23]. - High-risk funds, represented by margin trading and private equity, are expected to remain active, with margin trading net inflows estimated at around 450 billion yuan and private equity assets projected to grow to 8.5 trillion yuan, contributing approximately 700 billion yuan in incremental funds [4][26][31]. Group 3: Global and Domestic Influences - Overseas funds are anticipated to strategically allocate to Chinese assets, with northbound capital expected to net inflow around 100 billion yuan in 2026, although this impact on the overall market is expected to be limited [4][36][39]. - The macro liquidity environment is favorable, with a global interest rate cut cycle entering its later stages, but the marginal improvement in policies is expected to gradually converge. The micro-funding situation is likely to improve significantly, supporting a strong performance in equities over fixed income [4][45][49].

Core Viewpoint - The medical device sector is experiencing a performance turning point due to optimized procurement policies, improved bidding data, and decreasing channel inventory, particularly in the high-value consumables segment, which is expected to see valuation and performance recovery [1][7]. Group 1: Procurement Policy Updates - The sixth batch of national high-value medical consumables procurement was opened on January 13, with 12 types of consumables included, resulting in 440 products from 202 companies being selected out of 496 bids from 227 companies [2][3]. - The procurement process aims to ensure clinical continuity and quality by grouping products based on demand and supply capabilities, allowing for more competitive pricing strategies [4][6]. - Special product functionalities are considered in the procurement process, allowing for differentiated pricing based on clinical value and innovation [5]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The high-value consumables segment is expected to see a performance turning point by 2026, particularly in areas like electrophysiology, peripheral intervention, urology, and cardiovascular intervention, as the effects of procurement policies take hold [7]. - There is optimism regarding the international expansion of domestic medical device companies, with expectations that international business will surpass domestic growth, leading to valuation re-evaluation for companies with significant overseas operations [1][7]. - Investment opportunities in technological innovation within the medical device sector are anticipated, with emerging areas such as AI healthcare, brain-computer interfaces, surgical robots, and exoskeleton robots likely to attract investor attention [1][7].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that A-shares are expected to see significant incremental capital in 2026, potentially sustaining a slow bull market [1][5] Group 1: Long-term Capital - Long-term capital is identified as a core source of incremental funds, with insurance premium income continuing to grow significantly, leading to an increase in equity allocation to 15.5% by Q3 2025, close to historical highs [2] - The combination of insurance and wealth management channels is expected to contribute over 900 billion yuan in long-term capital to the market in 2026 [2] Group 2: Public Fund Capital - The pressure for fund redemptions is believed to have passed, with public funds benefiting from net asset value recovery and a positive investment sentiment, leading to an expected net inflow of 230 billion yuan in 2026, primarily from passive funds [3] Group 3: Other Funding Channels - "National team" funds are expected to see a significant slowdown in inflows, with a projected net inflow of about 20 billion yuan in 2026, while ETFs are becoming the main allocation channel [4] - Margin trading and private equity funds remain active, with expected net inflows of 450 billion yuan from margin trading and a projected increase in private equity scale to 8.5 trillion yuan, contributing around 700 billion yuan in incremental funds [4] - Foreign capital is entering a "4.0 era," with global funds expected to strategically allocate to Chinese assets, anticipating a net inflow of about 100 billion yuan from northbound capital [4] Group 4: Market Focus in 2026 - The focus of the market in 2026 will shift towards verifying economic conditions and performance realization, with long-term capital providing a safety net and active funds reinforcing a "technology + resource" dual mainline market trend [5] - The current hot sectors in A-shares are awaiting performance realization, with thematic concepts and rebound sectors showing significant elasticity [5]