2026年，白银价格将如何变动？ 世界白银协会在2月13日发布的估算数据显示，全球白银市场正面临连续第六年的结构性供应短缺， 2026年预计缺口为6700万盎司。世界白银协会此前发布的报告显示，矿产白银产量预计仅微增1%至8.2 亿盎司，而高价刺激下的回收银总量有望自2012年以来首次突破2亿盎司。 工业用银方面，受节约措施(即减少单位产品白银使用量)以及光伏领域加速采用其他材料替代白银等因 素共同影响，2026年工业用银加工量预计同比下降2%，降至6.5亿盎司，为四年来最低水平。消费端同 样承压，2026年全球珠宝用银需求将继续下滑，同比下降9%至1.78亿盎司，创2020年以来新低，主因 创纪录的白银价格对印度等主要消费市场形成显著抑制。 2025年12月29日，白银价格创下83.971美元/盎司的阶段性高位。在2025年，伦敦银价累计上涨 144.82%，其涨幅在历史上仅次于1979年。刚刚进入2026年，白银价格就坐起了"过山车"。 白银正在上演"史诗级冲高—巨震暴跌—反弹与跳水交替"的剧烈行情：1月强势上涨，截至1月28日伦敦 现货白银飙升至117.44美元/盎司，年内累计涨幅超50%并创历史新高； ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：中信建投证券投行委） 中信建投——境内外一体化大型综合性投资银行 凭借卓越的专业能力和丰富的经验，中信建投（国际）融资有限公司在本项目中作为联席保荐人、保荐 人兼整体协调人、整体协调人、联席全球协调人、联席账簿管理人、联席牵头经办人及资本市场中介 人，全程参与并主导了从前期筹备、申报上市、监管审核到发行的各个环节。面对复杂的市场环境和严 格的项目质量要求，中信建投团队以卓越的工作效率、一丝不苟的工作态度和精湛的专业技能，确保了 项目的顺利推进，并最终取得了圆满成功。这一成绩不仅体现了中信建投在港股业务及新能源及新材料 领域的优势，也彰显了我们致力于为客户创造价值、助力企业成长的坚定承诺。 展望未来，中信建投坚持走均衡全能的发展路线，深化"行业+区域+产品"的矩阵式布局，深入贯彻落 实境内外全面一体化、国际化战略。中信建投将继续秉承"让最好的企业成为我们的客户，让我们的客 户成为更好的企业"的服务理念，为企业的高质量发展做出更大的贡献，通过全周期全方位服务助推企 业向高而攀、向远而行。 沃尔核材成立于1998年，深耕新材料领域二十余年，主要业务包括：（1）电子通信业务，主要产品包 括通信 ...

Group 1 - Domestic natural rubber prices for full latex dropped to 16,250 CNY/ton, a decrease of 150 CNY/ton from the previous day, while Thai mixed rubber prices fell to 15,350 CNY/ton, down by 50 CNY/ton [4] - As of February 8, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory reached 1.296 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons, or 1.2% from the previous period [4] - The total inventory of dark rubber in China increased to 864,000 tons, up by 1.4%, with specific increases in Qingdao and Yunnan [4] Group 2 - The recent volatility in the market has not been accompanied by significant changes in the fundamentals, with market expectations driving the price fluctuations of RU and NR [5] - Looking ahead, there is optimism regarding tire demand this year, suggesting potential upward price movement for RU and NR, although the timing of demand recovery remains uncertain [5] - With the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, which will last for 10 days, market expectations are unstable, leading to anticipated volatility on the first trading day after the holiday [5] Group 3 - The PX industry in China saw a 2.5 percentage point increase in operating rates to 92.0%, while the Asian industry increased by 1.3 percentage points to 83.7%, indicating a generally ample supply [30] - The PTA industry experienced a 2.8 percentage point decrease in operating rates to 74.8%, reaching a historical low for this time of year, with expectations of continued low supply levels due to maintenance schedules [32] - The EG market is facing increased supply with a 0.6 percentage point rise in operating rates to 76.8%, but demand is expected to weaken, leading to potential inventory pressures in February [34] Group 4 - The bottle-grade PET industry is experiencing a supply contraction, with operating rates remaining stable at 66.1%, and ongoing maintenance expected to support processing fees [39] - The soda ash market is seeing a slight decline in prices, with production increasing to 792,000 tons, but demand is softening, leading to a bearish market sentiment [40] - The glass market is facing weak supply and demand dynamics, with inventory levels rising and production decreasing, indicating a potential for price stabilization [41]

Market Performance - The corn May contract closed at 2322 CNY/ton with a daily increase of 0.13%, showing a brief uptick before the Spring Festival amid weak purchasing and sales [4][14] - The soybean meal market is neutral, with overseas markets assessing potential upward adjustments in U.S. soybean demand for the 2025/26 season, leading to a rise in CBOT soybean prices [4][14] Downstream Demand - Deep processing enterprises have begun to issue notices for reduced or halted purchases, indicating that pre-holiday stockpiling is largely complete; feed enterprises are primarily executing previous contracts with weak purchasing intentions [4][14] Market Focus & Summary - Post-holiday, the main divergence in market sentiment will focus on whether the northeastern grain supply will increase significantly with rising temperatures, and the real demand elasticity of corporate inventories in this context. The corn May contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2250–2275 CNY/ton before the holiday, with directional choices pending further validation of supply release and demand recovery after the holiday [4][14] - The Rosario Grain Exchange has raised its soybean production forecast for this year to 48 million tons from the previous 47 million tons, despite a decline in crop quality due to dry weather [5][15] Egg Market - The egg market is neutral to slightly bullish as various channels have paused current spot price quotes. The near-month contracts have seen significant increases following a weak reality check, with the 03 contract price reflecting support near cost levels [7][17] Operational Strategies - For the egg market, long positions in distant contracts like 2605 and 2606 may have value after the convergence of premiums, and attention can be given to opportunities arising from the expansion of price differences [8][18] - In the live pig market, the average price in major production areas is approximately 11.52 CNY/kg, with a planned slaughter volume of 22.92 million heads in February, reflecting a 17.73% decrease from January [9][19]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜：市场情绪谨慎，震荡偏弱运行 隔夜沪铜主力震荡，尾盘跳水摸低99610元后反弹至100260元，伦铜回调至12850美金附近。 宏观中性。隔夜数据面清淡，市场聚焦美国CPI数据，权益市场情绪谨慎带落美股、贵金属、金属商品等多类资产普跌。 锌：隔夜沪锌偏弱震荡。美国1月成屋销售总数降幅创四年最大，海外权益市场承压，宏观情绪多空交织。基本面看，据百川盈孚统计，2月加工费或有小幅 抬价预期；节前冶炼厂陆续减停产，开工环比仍有下调空间。需求端，初端及终端企业陆续放假，现货成交愈发清淡，昨日社库累增近2万吨。整体而言， 节前交投清淡，宏观情绪略有承压，观望能否站稳30日均线。操作上，沪锌暂观望，沪锌主力合约运行区间24000-25000元/吨附近。 基本面中性偏空。昨日上期所铜仓单增加8282吨至18.7万吨，LME铜累库4550吨至19.66万吨。临近假期，国内现货下游备货接近尾声，现货维持平贴水。 总体来看，海外宏观缺乏指引叠加节前资金流出，预计短期铜价上行动能不足，或延续震荡整理。今日沪铜主力运行参考9.9万-10.2万元/吨。策略上，节前 控制 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the steel market is experiencing weak stability before the holiday, with low fluctuations in futures steel prices [4][12] - In January, China's CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase [4][12] - The sales of excavators in January 2026 reached 18,708 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%, with domestic sales up by 61.4% [4][12] Group 2 - The production of rebar decreased by 225,200 tons to 1,691,600 tons, with inventory increasing by 672,500 tons to 5,848,200 tons [5][14] - Hot-rolled coil production slightly decreased by 14,000 tons to 3,077,600 tons, while total inventory rose by 115,700 tons to 3,707,700 tons [5][14] - The average cost for independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 3,296 yuan per ton, with an average loss of 520 yuan per ton [4][12] Group 3 - The total supply of five major steel products was 7,940,600 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 258,400 tons, while total inventory increased by 1,449,300 tons, a rise of 7.8% [4][12] - The steel market is currently in a weak supply-demand situation, with steel mills implementing production cuts as the holiday approaches [5][14] - The strategy for rebar is to observe support around 3,050, while for hot-rolled coil, support is around 3,200 [6][15]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Construction Futures is actively engaging in community support initiatives, focusing on rural revitalization and providing assistance to underprivileged households during the New Year celebrations [1] Group 1: Community Support Activities - The company has organized a series of New Year慰问 activities across 21 regions, including Chongqing, Anhui, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia, benefiting over 1,000 underprivileged families [1] - A total donation of 150,000 yuan has been made, which includes essential goods such as rice, flour, milk, cooking oil, and sports equipment [1] Group 2: Additional Support Initiatives - In addition to material donations, CITIC Construction Futures is conducting various support activities such as party-building cooperation, financial knowledge training, consumer assistance, and educational support [1] - These initiatives aim to provide practical help and convey warmth and blessings for the New Year [1] Group 3: Commitment to Rural Revitalization - Since 2018, CITIC Construction Futures has been conducting New Year慰问 activities for nine consecutive years, demonstrating a commitment to ongoing community support [1] - The company emphasizes its responsibility as a financial state-owned enterprise and aims to continue its efforts in serving the agricultural sector and addressing support needs effectively [1]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration have announced a "zero tariff" policy for inbound goods consumed by residents of Hainan Free Trade Port, effective immediately [2] - During the upcoming Spring Festival travel period, cross-regional passenger flow is expected to reach 9.5 billion trips, setting a new historical record [2] - The duty-free sector is anticipated to see a return to stable profit margins, while the restaurant and hotel sectors are expected to benefit from overall industry value enhancement [1][3] Duty-Free Sector - Hainan has approved 15 duty-free operators, including 6 domestic and 3 foreign companies, with 202 product categories primarily focused on daily necessities [3] - Since the implementation of the new duty-free policy, shopping amounts have exceeded 10 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25.32% [3] - The first month of duty-free sales in Hainan reached 4.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.8% [3] Hotel Sector - The hotel sector is expected to stabilize and improve by 2026, with a focus on enhancing the overall value chain and operational capabilities [1][7] - The hotel market is experiencing a gradual recovery, with RevPAR showing slight improvements, particularly in tourist-heavy areas like Sanya [7][8] - The overall hotel supply is stabilizing, with a focus on optimizing supply chain and operational efficiency [9] Restaurant Sector - The restaurant industry is entering a phase of supply-side optimization, with a focus on enhancing operational efficiency and brand strength [10][12] - The competitive landscape remains intense, with leading brands benefiting from supply chain advantages and operational efficiencies [11][13] - The overall chain rate in the restaurant sector is steadily increasing, particularly in the ready-to-drink beverage segment [13] Tourism and Leisure Sector - The tourism sector is a key driver for domestic demand, with policies expected to continue supporting growth through 2026 [15][16] - The upcoming Spring Festival is projected to see significant increases in travel bookings, with a year-on-year growth of over 30% in service reservations [14] - The government aims to accelerate the development of an international tourism consumption center in Hainan [4][5] Cross-Border E-Commerce Sector - The cross-border e-commerce sector is expected to benefit from the overall quality and brand effect of Chinese manufacturing, with significant market share growth in overseas markets [19] - The U.S. is entering a rate-cutting cycle, which may positively impact the cross-border e-commerce landscape [19] - Companies are adapting to new competitive environments, leveraging strong supply chains and product quality to drive growth [19][20]

Group 1 - The announcement date for the fund manager change is February 13, 2026 [1] - The new fund manager's information is provided [2] - The departing fund manager's information is also included [3] - The fund manager change has been reported to the China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association as required [4] Group 2 - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating a positive trend for certain stocks [1]

观点网讯：2月12日，中信建投证券股份有限公司发布临时受托管理事务报告，披露深业集团有限公司 信用类债券信息披露事务负责人发生变动。 公告显示，史晓梅女士因年龄原因，不再担任深业集团董事、财务总监，按规定办理退休手续。根据工 作安排及信息披露需要，信用类债券信息披露事务负责人变更为副总经理袁杨先生。 截至发行人公告出具之日，上述人员变动情况已履行相关决策程序。 免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 ...