作者：骏逸JUNYI 这个春节，金融圈最热闹的不是开门红，而是"搬家"。 2月4日，节后开工第二天，一批券商从业者的履历悄然变更。赵炳皓从中信建投证券跳槽华安基金，陈 守白从中国国际金融股份有限公司加入工银瑞信基金，周晓琪从世纪证券转投中信保诚基金——他们的 流向出奇一致：从券商到公募。 这不是个例，而是一场正在加速的迁徙潮。 数据不会说谎。 截至2025年底，证券公司从业人数32.78万人，一年净减少近8000人。与此同时，公募 基金总规模37.71万亿元，全年九次刷新历史纪录，增量近5万亿元。一个在瘦身，一个在膨胀。 来源：今日头条 钱往哪里流，人就往哪里走。这话糙，理不糙。 为什么走？ 先看券商。佣金费率持续下行，经纪业务萎缩，投行项目收紧，券商"躺赚"的时代已经翻篇。曾经最吃 香的营业部客户经理，如今既要面对佣金价格战，又要应付客户赎回压力，收入缩水已成普遍现象。更 关键的是，券商内部的晋升通道变窄，头部券商人均薪酬连续三年下调，"金饭碗"不香了。 再看公募。37.71万亿元的规模背后，是150家基金管理公司、3.36万从业人员。人均管理规模超过11亿 元，这个数字本身就说明问题——公募太缺人了。缺的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of new refinancing regulations by the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges is seen as a positive development for the investment banking sector, providing opportunities for both large and small brokerage firms to adapt and capitalize on the changes [1][2][8]. Group 1: Market Response and Opportunities - The new refinancing regulations are expected to enhance the efficiency of refinancing processes, addressing previous concerns raised by market participants [2][10]. - In the first week following the announcement of the new regulations (February 10-12), at least 10 listed companies in the three exchanges issued new refinancing proposals, indicating a quick market response [2][11]. - The refinancing market in January saw a significant increase, with a total of 130 billion yuan raised, marking a 56% year-on-year growth and a 234% month-on-month increase [3][11]. Group 2: Impact on Brokerage Firms - Analysts believe that leading brokerage firms with strong pricing and underwriting capabilities will benefit the most from the new regulations, while smaller firms will need to find differentiated strategies to compete [4][12]. - The top five brokerage firms accounted for 54% of the underwriting volume in 2025, with CITIC Securities leading by underwriting 36 companies [4][12]. - Smaller brokerage firms are focusing on the Beijing Stock Exchange's refinancing market, which is seen as a key area for growth due to the concentration of small and medium-sized enterprises [5][13][14]. Group 3: Challenges and Requirements - The new regulations emphasize "supporting the strong and limiting the weak," which raises the bar for brokerage firms in terms of their capabilities, particularly in pricing for unprofitable technology companies [7][16]. - There is a limited number of firms with experience in pricing for unprofitable companies, highlighting a potential challenge for many in the industry [7][16]. - The ability to effectively integrate technology and finance is becoming increasingly important, requiring firms to enhance their understanding of industries and technologies [7][16].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of new refinancing regulations by the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges is expected to improve the investment banking business, creating opportunities for both large and small brokerages [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Reactions - The new refinancing regulations aim to enhance the efficiency of refinancing approvals, responding to market demands and facilitating the rapid development of new economies [2]. - The first week following the policy announcement saw at least 10 listed companies in the three exchanges release new refinancing plans, indicating a positive market response [2][3]. - The refinancing market had already shown significant growth prior to the new regulations, with A-share refinancing in January reaching 130 billion, a year-on-year increase of 56% and a month-on-month increase of 234% [3]. Group 2: Impact on Investment Banking Landscape - The new regulations are expected to benefit leading brokerages with strong pricing and underwriting capabilities, while smaller firms may need to find differentiated development paths [4][5]. - The top five brokerages accounted for 54% of the underwriting cases in 2025, indicating a concentration of market power among leading firms [5]. - Smaller brokerages are focusing on the Beijing Stock Exchange's refinancing market, which presents opportunities for growth due to the concentration of small and medium enterprises [6][5]. Group 3: Challenges and Requirements for Brokerages - The new refinancing rules emphasize "supporting the strong and limiting the weak," raising the capability requirements for investment banks [7]. - There is a limited number of brokerages experienced in pricing for unprofitable companies, highlighting a gap in expertise that needs to be addressed [8]. - The ability to integrate industry knowledge and resources is becoming increasingly important for brokerages, especially in the context of financing technology innovation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a sustained increase in fiber optic prices in the Chinese market since Q3 2025, reflecting strong demand and tight supply conditions. The global demand for fiber optic cables is robust, driven by overseas demand and AI-related applications, leading to a recommendation for continued investment in the fiber optic sector [1]. Group 1: Price Trends and Demand - Since Q3 2025, the price of domestic G652D fiber has consistently increased, reaching 31.5 yuan per core kilometer in January 2026, a 79% increase from November 2025, indicating a favorable industry demand and tight supply [1]. - In 2025, China's optical fiber exports increased by 47.1% in volume and 65.4% in value, while optical preform exports rose by 89.5% in volume and 81.7% in value, reflecting strong global demand for fiber optic cables [1]. Group 2: Future Demand Projections - The demand for fiber optics is expected to grow rapidly due to AI and other factors, with significant increases in global optical module demand anticipated in 2026, which will correspondingly boost fiber demand [2]. - By around 2027, the demand for fiber optics is projected to scale up significantly, with Corning estimating that this demand could be 2-3 times that of existing enterprise network business [2]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The North American market is experiencing a supply gap, with fiber demand growth outpacing supply growth, leading to potential shortages as AI continues to drive demand [3]. - The supply-demand balance in the U.S. market is projected to show deficits of 0.28 million core kilometers in 2023, 0.24 million in 2024, and 0.24 million in 2025, indicating a tightening market [3]. - Major suppliers in North America, such as Corning and Prysmian, are operating at high capacity utilization rates and are expanding slowly, which may create significant export opportunities for leading domestic fiber optic companies [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various grassroots financial education activities organized by multiple securities firms during the Spring Festival, aiming to enhance investor awareness and participation in financial literacy while addressing the rise of illegal financial activities during this period [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Education Activities - Securities firms have organized community events such as Spring Festival garden parties, where residents engage in games like financial knowledge quizzes and anti-fraud knowledge contests to learn about financial concepts [2][4]. - Activities include interactive elements like writing Spring Festival couplets and financial knowledge spinning wheels, making the learning process enjoyable and culturally relevant [4][5]. - Over a dozen securities firms, including Dongwu Securities and Huabao Securities, have launched similar festive educational activities targeting grassroots communities since late January [4]. Group 2: Innovative Approaches - Some firms, like Kaisheng Securities, have integrated traditional crafts with financial education, creating themed events that promote anti-fraud awareness and rational investment concepts through hands-on activities [5]. - The use of MBTI personality tests in investment profiling has been introduced by firms like Zhongxin Jianshe Securities, allowing investors to receive personalized investment reports based on their preferences and behaviors [7][8]. Group 3: Online and Offline Integration - Firms are leveraging both online and offline channels to maximize the reach and impact of their educational initiatives, ensuring comprehensive coverage of their activities [9]. - Zhongxin Jianshe Securities has developed a mini-program for investment education, enhancing accessibility and engagement through digital platforms [7][9]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Directions - Despite the success of these initiatives, there are challenges in making financial education sustainable and effective, particularly in adapting content to meet the diverse needs of different community demographics [10][12]. - Suggestions for improvement include establishing fixed educational service points in community centers and enhancing collaboration among various stakeholders to create a more integrated approach to financial education [12].

Core Viewpoint - Chinese securities firms are increasingly expanding their overseas operations, with multiple major and mid-sized firms announcing initiatives for international capital operations at the beginning of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Recent Developments - On February 13, major firms including CITIC Securities, CICC, and Zhongtai Securities announced guarantees for their overseas subsidiaries [2]. - GF Securities reported a change in registered capital from 7.606 billion RMB to 7.825 billion RMB due to a completed H-share placement, with funds aimed at enhancing overseas subsidiary capital [2]. - GF Securities plans to list its zero-interest convertible bonds on the Vienna MTF [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - GF Securities is not the first to pursue overseas financing; Huatai Securities recently issued 10 billion HKD in zero-interest convertible bonds for international business support [5]. - Since 2025, over ten securities firms have made significant strides in international business, with firms like Western Securities and Dongwu Securities establishing wholly-owned subsidiaries in Hong Kong [6]. - The push into overseas markets represents a shift for Chinese securities firms from local intermediaries to global traders, driven by the need for risk hedging and capital flow [6]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - As of mid-2025, 13 out of 16 comparable A-share listed securities firms reported over 10% year-on-year growth in overseas business revenue [7]. - Notable revenue figures include CITIC Securities at 6.912 billion RMB (up 13.57%), CICC at 4.024 billion RMB (up 75.66%), and Haitong Securities at 2.459 billion RMB (up 76.21%) [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts predict that a significant number of quality domestic enterprises will connect with global markets through Hong Kong, creating opportunities for IPOs and cross-border capital services [9]. - The competitive edge in overseas business will increasingly focus on cross-border derivatives and FICC (Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodity) operations [10]. - Chinese securities firms are expanding beyond Hong Kong to Southeast Asia and the Middle East, establishing a comprehensive international business landscape [10]. Group 5: Strategic Considerations - The future growth potential for Chinese securities firms lies in cross-border wealth management, offshore RMB-related businesses, and investment banking in emerging markets [11]. - Firms are advised to build a composite team that understands both international rules and Chinese industries, while also enhancing cross-cultural integration [12].

2026年，白银价格将如何变动？ 世界白银协会在2月13日发布的估算数据显示，全球白银市场正面临连续第六年的结构性供应短缺， 2026年预计缺口为6700万盎司。世界白银协会此前发布的报告显示，矿产白银产量预计仅微增1%至8.2 亿盎司，而高价刺激下的回收银总量有望自2012年以来首次突破2亿盎司。 工业用银方面，受节约措施(即减少单位产品白银使用量)以及光伏领域加速采用其他材料替代白银等因 素共同影响，2026年工业用银加工量预计同比下降2%，降至6.5亿盎司，为四年来最低水平。消费端同 样承压，2026年全球珠宝用银需求将继续下滑，同比下降9%至1.78亿盎司，创2020年以来新低，主因 创纪录的白银价格对印度等主要消费市场形成显著抑制。 2025年12月29日，白银价格创下83.971美元/盎司的阶段性高位。在2025年，伦敦银价累计上涨 144.82%，其涨幅在历史上仅次于1979年。刚刚进入2026年，白银价格就坐起了"过山车"。 白银正在上演"史诗级冲高—巨震暴跌—反弹与跳水交替"的剧烈行情：1月强势上涨，截至1月28日伦敦 现货白银飙升至117.44美元/盎司，年内累计涨幅超50%并创历史新高； ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Wole Cable Co., Ltd. successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking the company's entry into the international capital market with an issuance price of HKD 20.09 per share and a total issuance scale of approximately HKD 28.12 billion [1][3] Group 1: Company Overview - Wole Cable, established in 1998, specializes in new materials, with main business segments including electronic communication and power transmission [3] - The company ranks fifth in global communication cable manufacturers with a market share of 12.7%, first in the global heat shrink materials industry with a market share of 20.6%, ninth in the global electric power transmission products for new energy vehicles with a market share of 1.9%, and seventh in the global cable accessories industry with a market share of 2.5% [3][5] Group 2: Financial Performance - Wole Cable has shown strong financial performance with continuous revenue growth, achieving revenues of RMB 5.337 billion in 2022, RMB 5.719 billion in 2023, RMB 6.920 billion in 2024, and RMB 6.077 billion in the first nine months of 2025 [5] - The net profit increased from RMB 660 million in 2022 to RMB 921 million in 2024, with an estimated net profit of no less than RMB 1.1 billion for 2025, indicating a consistent expansion in profitability [5] Group 3: Investment and Innovation - The company holds 547 invention patents and has strategically established nine manufacturing bases in China and one overseas factory in Vietnam [5] - Wole Cable continues to invest in product innovation, targeting future growth and diversification [5] Group 4: Underwriting and Market Response - The IPO process involved 16 cornerstone investors who collectively subscribed USD 124 million, with a final subscription rate of 8.19 times for international placements and 569.58 times for the Hong Kong public offering [3][5] - CITIC Securities played a crucial role as the lead underwriter, ensuring the successful completion of the IPO amidst a complex market environment [5]

Group 1 - Domestic natural rubber prices for full latex dropped to 16,250 CNY/ton, a decrease of 150 CNY/ton from the previous day, while Thai mixed rubber prices fell to 15,350 CNY/ton, down by 50 CNY/ton [4] - As of February 8, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory reached 1.296 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons, or 1.2% from the previous period [4] - The total inventory of dark rubber in China increased to 864,000 tons, up by 1.4%, with specific increases in Qingdao and Yunnan [4] Group 2 - The recent volatility in the market has not been accompanied by significant changes in the fundamentals, with market expectations driving the price fluctuations of RU and NR [5] - Looking ahead, there is optimism regarding tire demand this year, suggesting potential upward price movement for RU and NR, although the timing of demand recovery remains uncertain [5] - With the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, which will last for 10 days, market expectations are unstable, leading to anticipated volatility on the first trading day after the holiday [5] Group 3 - The PX industry in China saw a 2.5 percentage point increase in operating rates to 92.0%, while the Asian industry increased by 1.3 percentage points to 83.7%, indicating a generally ample supply [30] - The PTA industry experienced a 2.8 percentage point decrease in operating rates to 74.8%, reaching a historical low for this time of year, with expectations of continued low supply levels due to maintenance schedules [32] - The EG market is facing increased supply with a 0.6 percentage point rise in operating rates to 76.8%, but demand is expected to weaken, leading to potential inventory pressures in February [34] Group 4 - The bottle-grade PET industry is experiencing a supply contraction, with operating rates remaining stable at 66.1%, and ongoing maintenance expected to support processing fees [39] - The soda ash market is seeing a slight decline in prices, with production increasing to 792,000 tons, but demand is softening, leading to a bearish market sentiment [40] - The glass market is facing weak supply and demand dynamics, with inventory levels rising and production decreasing, indicating a potential for price stabilization [41]

Market Performance - The corn May contract closed at 2322 CNY/ton with a daily increase of 0.13%, showing a brief uptick before the Spring Festival amid weak purchasing and sales [4][14] - The soybean meal market is neutral, with overseas markets assessing potential upward adjustments in U.S. soybean demand for the 2025/26 season, leading to a rise in CBOT soybean prices [4][14] Downstream Demand - Deep processing enterprises have begun to issue notices for reduced or halted purchases, indicating that pre-holiday stockpiling is largely complete; feed enterprises are primarily executing previous contracts with weak purchasing intentions [4][14] Market Focus & Summary - Post-holiday, the main divergence in market sentiment will focus on whether the northeastern grain supply will increase significantly with rising temperatures, and the real demand elasticity of corporate inventories in this context. The corn May contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2250–2275 CNY/ton before the holiday, with directional choices pending further validation of supply release and demand recovery after the holiday [4][14] - The Rosario Grain Exchange has raised its soybean production forecast for this year to 48 million tons from the previous 47 million tons, despite a decline in crop quality due to dry weather [5][15] Egg Market - The egg market is neutral to slightly bullish as various channels have paused current spot price quotes. The near-month contracts have seen significant increases following a weak reality check, with the 03 contract price reflecting support near cost levels [7][17] Operational Strategies - For the egg market, long positions in distant contracts like 2605 and 2606 may have value after the convergence of premiums, and attention can be given to opportunities arising from the expansion of price differences [8][18] - In the live pig market, the average price in major production areas is approximately 11.52 CNY/kg, with a planned slaughter volume of 22.92 million heads in February, reflecting a 17.73% decrease from January [9][19]