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科技领跑、周期接力、慢牛到全面牛……2026年A股怎么走,十大券商策略来了
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-12-20 04:57
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is transitioning from a liquidity and valuation-driven phase to a new stage that emphasizes fundamentals and profit recovery, with a projected double-digit profit growth for the entire A-share market in 2026 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Most major domestic securities firms believe that the A-share market will remain in a bull market in 2026, with profit recovery being a key variable for market sustainability [1][2]. - The overall profit growth for the A-share market is expected to rise from 8.2% in 2025 to 10.3% in 2026, with the growth rate for non-financial sectors projected at 7.7% [12][64]. - The first half of 2026 is anticipated to maintain market momentum, but a significant transition may occur mid-year, particularly for sectors that have seen substantial gains [1][2][27]. Group 2: Sector Focus - The technology sector remains a consensus direction for 2026, with a shift from infrastructure investment to application and performance realization in AI, focusing on areas like robotics and smart driving [2][21]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive profit recovery in sectors such as steel, chemicals, and new energy, while resource products may present opportunities as they follow the technology sector [2][27]. - The report highlights four main areas for investment opportunities: AI, new energy, military industry, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a focus on sectors that are expected to benefit from the "15th Five-Year Plan" [34][40][79]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The investment strategy should prioritize "manufacturing as a shield and technology as a sword," emphasizing advanced manufacturing and AI as core components [40][44]. - The report suggests a rotation in market style from growth to value, particularly around mid-2026, as the market may shift focus based on liquidity and industry trends [68][69]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying high-performance sectors within the "future industries" and suggests a focus on resource security and energy [79][91]. Group 4: Financial Metrics and Predictions - The overall A-share market is expected to see a significant recovery in profitability, with non-financial net profit growth projected to rebound from 6.5% in 2025 to 16.5% in 2026 [33][64]. - The report predicts that the supply-side reforms will lead to a more balanced market, with a focus on sectors that have undergone significant price recovery and demand stimulation [27][92]. - The report indicates that the current market valuation structure remains healthy, with no signs of overheating, suggesting further upward potential [80][89].
中信建投3人被判刑超10年
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-19 14:47
炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 某大券商,3人被判刑超10年 来源:南财社 国资投行保代变"国家工作人员"?最近,中信建投保代因受贿罪被重判十年以上,券商行业炸锅了。 12月5日,中信建投(601066.SH;06066.HK)原投行业务管委会执行总经理、保荐代表人杜鹏飞因受 贿罪,被黑龙江齐齐哈尔市龙沙区人民法院一审判处有期徒刑10年2个月,罚金60万元,没收违法所得 410.64万元。 据媒体报道,杜鹏飞通过代持方式以150万元突击入股振华新材,在上市解禁后减持套现410万元,个人 分得约200万元,被公诉机关认为涉嫌受贿,且数额特别巨大,建议量刑10至11年。 值得注意的是,在此前很多类似案例中,大多都是处以罚款、市场进入等形式处理,追究刑事责任的, 也都是以"非国家工作人员受贿罪"判处。但本次杜鹏飞一案,却被法院认定为"国家工作人员受贿罪", 并给出十年以上的最高档量刑,更是业内罕见。 这一案件也引起行业内外的热议。而在争议还在持续,杜鹏飞也提出上诉之际,据红星资本局报道,近 期中信建投又有两名保代因受贿罪被判刑,刑期也都在10年以上。 01 上市前突击入股, ...
苏州天脉股东32号员工战略配售资管计划拟减持不超1.99%股份
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-19 11:45
苏州天脉(301626)(301626.SZ)公告,公司股东中信建投(601066)基金-招商银行-中信建投基金-共 赢32号员工参与战略配售集合资产管理计划(简称"32号员工战略配售资管计划")计划自2026年1月14日 至2026年4月13日以大宗交易方式或集中竞价交易方式减持公司股份不超过230.1682万股(占公司当前总 股本比例1.99%)。 ...
调研速递|红棉智汇科创接待中信建投调研 扣非净利润连续增长 透露收购亚洲食品协同规划
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-19 09:56
在品牌营销方面,公司全资子公司华糖食品携手广东电视体育频道,围绕2025年广州全运会开展广氏、 五羊品牌营销活动。线上通过全程赞助赛事直播及报道节目占据传播核心阵地;线下开展产品展示与试 饮,与消费者建立直接沟通,旨在打通"屏幕前"与"在现场"双场景,最大化品牌曝光。同时,公司还组 织员工加入全运会志愿者队伍,并通过新媒体账号和园区氛围布置融入全运会主题宣传,为体育盛会助 力。 2025年12月19日,广州市红棉智汇科创股份有限公司(下称"红棉智汇科创")在公司会议室接待了中信 建投的特定对象调研。调研活动于当日15:30-17:00举行,中信建投分析师高畅参与,红棉智汇科创方面 由副总经理、董事会秘书兼总法律顾问程默,证券事务代表刘垚,董事会秘书处主管梁嘉茵共同接待。 双方就公司2025年经营情况、收购亚洲食品的战略考量、全运会营销布局、子公司华糖食品销售渠道及 市值管理计划等核心议题展开深入交流。 2025年经营:扣非净利润连续增长 饮料与园区运营板块表现亮眼 谈及2025年经营情况,红棉智汇科创表示,尽管受消费市场波动影响,公司糖产品收入有所下滑导致整 体营业收入略有下降,但通过精准营销与品牌建设,盈利 ...
潮起钱塘 投教架桥——中信建投期货投教基地·杭州分基地授牌启程
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-12-19 09:27
Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the investor education base in Hangzhou by CITIC Securities Futures is a significant step towards enhancing investor education and supporting the real economy in the Yangtze River Delta region [1][3]. Group 1: Investor Education Initiative - The investor education base in Hangzhou aims to serve as a professional platform for learning and interaction, focusing on professional knowledge and risk management services [3]. - The company has emphasized the importance of investor education as a foundational aspect of the futures industry, with previous successful initiatives in other regions, such as the one in Chongqing [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Analysis - Following the establishment ceremony, the Hangzhou branch's lecturer team provided insights into the commodity market outlook for 2026, discussing supply and demand dynamics influenced by growth stabilization and anti-competitive policies [5]. - Specific topics included the current oversupply of oil and coal, as well as an analysis of the fundamentals of copper, silver, and lithium carbonate [5]. Group 3: Future Commitment - The Hangzhou branch of CITIC Securities Futures is committed to serving the Yangtze River Delta region by enhancing its professional capabilities and innovative service models to contribute to high-quality regional economic development [7].
中信建设证券首席经济学家黄文涛:未来有望通过政策进一步发力推动消费走出低谷
人民财讯12月19日电,中信建设证券首席经济学家、研究发展部联席负责人黄文涛在《财经》年会 2026:预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛上表示,当前中国消费呈现一定低迷态势,其原因既涉及总 量因素,也包含结构性问题。他认为,随着人均可支配收入的提高及相关政策持续加码,这些均属于发 展过程中的阶段性挑战,未来有望通过政策进一步发力推动消费走出低谷,从而为宏观经济稳定贡献更 多增量。 责任编辑:刘万里 SF014 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 责任编辑:刘万里 SF014 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 人民财讯12月19日电,中信建设证券首席经济学家、研究发展部联席负责人黄文涛在《财经》年会 2026:预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛上表示,当前中国消费呈现一定低迷态势,其原因既涉及总 量因素,也包含结构性问题。他认为,随着人均可支配收入的提高及相关政策持续加码,这些均属于发 展过程中的阶段性挑战,未来有望通过政策进一步发力推动消费走出低谷,从而为宏观经济稳定贡献更 多增量。 ...
中信建投:首予正力新能“买入”评级 单位盈利中枢有望逐步上移
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-19 07:39
Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that Zhengli New Energy (03677) is expected to achieve a turning point in profitability, with net profit and operating profit turning positive in 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively. The company is projected to see significant revenue growth in the coming years, with a "buy" rating given due to strong profit growth potential and sales exceeding industry averages [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve total revenue of 4.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, with a net profit of 90 million yuan, marking its first profit [2]. - For the first half of 2025, revenue is projected to reach 3.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.9%, with a net profit of 220 million yuan, and operating profit turning positive for the first time at 87.3 million yuan [2]. Sales Volume - The company has seen a significant increase in sales volume, with a year-on-year growth of 99.2% to 7.82 GWh in the first half of the year, increasing its market share from 0.03% in 2022 to 2% [3]. - Looking ahead to the second half of 2025 and 2026, the company expects continued growth in sales volume driven by new model releases, with annual sales projected to reach 18.89 GWh and 30.04 GWh, respectively, representing a year-on-year increase of 59% for both years [3]. Production Capacity - The company anticipates an increase in utilization rate to 76.2% in 2025, ensuring sufficient output for customers, with expectations of full production during peak seasons. Additionally, 10 GWh and 15 GWh of new capacity are expected to be added in 2026 and 2027, respectively [3]. Profitability - The company’s unit profitability is expected to continue rising due to increased scale and improved utilization rates. The report highlights that the reduction in R&D and management costs due to scale, along with decreased unit depreciation from higher utilization rates, are key factors driving this profitability [4]. - The company is projected to see its utilization rate increase from 62.9% in the first half of 2025 to 76.2% and 86.3% in 2026, further enhancing unit profitability [4]. Second Growth Curve - The company has achieved mass production and delivery of aviation batteries, which are expected to create a second growth curve. It is the first in China's battery industry to obtain both AS9100D aerospace quality management certification and CAAC airworthiness certification. The aviation batteries are anticipated to have higher value and profit margins compared to automotive batteries [5].
中信建投:首予正力新能(03677)“买入”评级 单位盈利中枢有望逐步上移
智通财经网· 2025-12-19 07:38
Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that Zhengli New Energy (03677) is expected to achieve positive net profit and operating profit in 2024 and the first half of 2025, marking a turning point in profitability. Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.028 billion, 12.805 billion, and 18.215 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 544 million, 1.237 billion, and 1.730 billion yuan, suggesting a strong growth trajectory and a "buy" rating due to the company's superior growth rates compared to the industry [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve total revenue of 4.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, with a net profit of 90 million yuan, marking its first profit [2]. - For the first half of 2025, revenue is expected to reach 3.17 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 71.9%, with a net profit of 220 million yuan and operating profit of 87.3 million yuan, indicating a positive trend [2]. Sales Volume and Market Share - The company has seen a 99.2% year-on-year increase in shipment volume to 7.82 GWh in the first half of the year, with market share rising from 0.03% in 2022 to 2% [3]. - Projections for 2025 and 2026 suggest annual shipments of 18.89 GWh and 30.04 GWh, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 59%, significantly outpacing the expected 17% growth in global electric vehicle sales [3]. Production Capacity and Efficiency - The company is expected to achieve a utilization rate of 76.2% in 2025, ensuring sufficient output for customers, with full production anticipated during peak seasons. An additional 10 GWh and 15 GWh of capacity are expected to be added in 2026 and 2027 to accommodate new projects [3]. - The report highlights that increased scale and utilization rates will continue to drive the company's unit profitability upward, with expectations for further reductions in R&D and management costs due to economies of scale [4]. New Growth Opportunities - The company has achieved mass production and delivery of aviation batteries, becoming the first in China's power battery industry to obtain AS9100D certification and CAAC airworthiness certification. This segment is expected to generate higher value and profit margins compared to automotive batteries, potentially creating a second growth curve for the company [5].
受市场乐观情绪驱动 碳酸锂主力合约突破11万关口
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-12-19 06:58
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in lithium carbonate futures prices, with the main contract rising by 5.02% to 112,640.0 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] - The supply side indicates a slight increase in domestic lithium carbonate production, which rose by 59 tons to 22,000 tons last week, while spodumene production saw a minor increase and salt lake production experienced seasonal declines [2] - On the demand side, despite the increasing penetration rate of new energy vehicles, there is a potential risk of decreased automobile sales in late 2025, which could impact the growth of the power battery market and overall demand for lithium carbonate [2] Group 2 - The short-term outlook suggests that lithium carbonate futures prices will be driven by market optimism, but there are concerns about supply shocks from unexpected resumption of production and potential declines due to downstream maintenance [3] - The long-term perspective remains positive, as the demand growth logic in core applications such as new energy power batteries and energy storage has not fundamentally changed, supporting the long-term value of lithium carbonate [3] - There are still opportunities for buying on dips in lithium carbonate, indicating a favorable investment sentiment in the sector [3]
最佳分析师获奖感言,来了!
Core Insights - The 2025 Securities Times Analyst Annual Conference and Best Analyst Awards Ceremony was held in Suzhou on December 17, showcasing significant achievements in the investment research sector [1] Individual Awards - Qiu Guanhua from Zheshang Securities won the Master Analyst SSR award, emphasizing a commitment to professional research and the financial industry [2] - Wu Bohua from Changjiang Securities and Guan Quansen from Guolian Minsheng Securities received the Star Analyst SSR awards, highlighting their contributions to the new energy and home appliance sectors respectively [3] - Sun Yuanyuan from Industrial Securities and He Yaxuan from Guosheng Securities were awarded the Golden Analyst SSR, recognizing their work in the pharmaceutical and construction industries [4][5] Team Awards - The Best Research Team SSR award was shared among several institutions, including Changjiang Securities, GF Securities, Industrial Securities, and others, reflecting a collective effort in research excellence [1][6] - Each winning team expressed gratitude towards their colleagues, investors, and the platforms that support their research endeavors, emphasizing teamwork and dedication [6][7]