Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [10][11] - The coal price is believed to have reached a bottom, with expectations of a rebound in demand for replenishment in mid to late May [10][11] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term supply-demand balance and a long-term gap still present [10][11] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of April 26, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 657 CNY/ton, down 8 CNY/ton week-on-week [22][27] - The international thermal coal FOB price for Newcastle (NEWC5500) is 70.6 USD/ton, down 0.5 USD/ton week-on-week [22][27] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port remains stable at 1400 CNY/ton [29] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 94.2%, down 1.7 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 88.38%, up 0.68 percentage points [10][44] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 10.70 thousand tons/day (-3.5%), while consumption in coastal provinces increased by 4.40 thousand tons/day (+2.48%) [10][45] Inventory Situation - As of April 24, coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 186.10 thousand tons, while inventory in coastal provinces decreased by 24.50 thousand tons [45] - The available days of coal in inland provinces increased by 1.60 days, while it decreased by 0.50 days in coastal provinces [45] Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and robust companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as those with significant rebound potential like Yanzhou Coal and Datong Coal [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [8][11]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 shows stable operations, with enhanced profitability in the coal business despite a decline in revenue and net profit [3][4][5]. - The acquisition of Hanjin Energy has been integrated into the company's financials, contributing to coal sales volume growth [4][6]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the injection of quality coal assets from the National Energy Group [6][11]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 69.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.949 billion yuan, down 18.0% year-on-year [3][4]. - The coal production volume was 82.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, while coal sales volume dropped by 15.3% to 99.3 million tons [5][10]. - The average selling price of coal was 506 yuan per ton, down 11.5% year-on-year, with a coal business gross margin of 30.1%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points [5][7]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 55.102 billion yuan in 2025, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 2.77 yuan [11][12]. - Revenue is projected to decline slightly in 2025, with a forecast of 330.7 billion yuan, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [12][14]. Operational Highlights - The company’s total power generation in Q1 2025 was 50.42 billion kWh, a decrease of 10.7% year-on-year, with a total installed capacity of 47,505 MW [7][10]. - The transportation business saw a decline in volume and profitability, with self-owned railway turnover down 11.6% year-on-year [10][11]. - The company is advancing the construction of new coal mines, which are expected to enhance future production capacity [6][11].

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua's Q1 2025 financial results show significant declines in revenue and profit across its coal, power, transportation, and chemical businesses, primarily due to falling coal prices and reduced sales volumes [1][2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, China Shenhua reported operating revenue of 69.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.07% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.949 billion yuan, down 17.96% year-on-year [1] - The basic earnings per share were 0.60 yuan, reflecting an 18.14% decline compared to the previous year [1] - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 2.80%, a decrease of 0.74 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Coal Business - Coal production in Q1 2025 was 83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [1] - Coal sales were 99 million tons, down 15.3% year-on-year, with long-term contracts accounting for 63.9% of sales, an increase of 14.0 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average coal price was 506 yuan/ton, down 11.54% year-on-year [2] - The unit production cost for self-produced coal was 195.8 yuan/ton, up 2.30% year-on-year, while the unit sales cost was 293.10 yuan/ton, down 1.44% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Power Business - The total power generation was 50.06 billion kWh, a decrease of 10.8% year-on-year [3] - The electricity sales volume was 47.16 billion kWh, down 10.9% year-on-year [3] - The average selling price of electricity was 386.0 yuan/MWh, reflecting a 5.6% decline year-on-year [3] Group 4: Transportation Business - Railway revenue in Q1 2025 was 10.526 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.5% year-on-year [4] - Port revenue was 1.576 billion yuan, down 7.2% year-on-year [4] - Shipping revenue fell to 716 million yuan, a significant decrease of 41.0% year-on-year [4] Group 5: Chemical Business - The coal chemical segment generated revenue of 1.472 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year, but profit increased by 168.8% to 43 million yuan [5] - Sales volumes for polyethylene and polypropylene were 92,000 tons and 83,200 tons, respectively, showing slight year-on-year increases [5] Group 6: Earnings Forecast - The company adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 336.942 billion yuan, 313.041 billion yuan, and 315.179 billion yuan, respectively [5] - The projected net profits for the same period are 45.659 billion yuan, 42.190 billion yuan, and 44.178 billion yuan, respectively [5] - The current stock price is 38.68 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 16.8X, 18.2X, and 17.4X for 2025-2027 [5]

煤炭周报 关税扰动下日耗同比降幅扩大，煤价筑底逻辑未变 2025 年 04 月 26 日 ➢ 关税扰动下日耗同比降幅扩大，煤价筑底逻辑未变。2025 年 4 月关税冲突 加码以来，受下游需求萎缩影响，沿海八省电厂日耗同比出现下降，3 月底周均 日耗 187.1 万吨，同比增加 3.5 万吨(+1.9%)，而截至 4 月 24 日当周，周均日 耗降至 176.0 万吨，同比减少 2.9 万吨(-1.6%)，在此影响下，煤价持续窄幅震 荡，本周环比延续小幅下滑。但同时，持续低煤价下新疆、内蒙古以露天矿为主 的边际产能产量或出现缩减，发运倒挂叠加大秦线检修，港口库存略有去化。展 望后市，非电需求仍维持缓慢提升，煤价向上动力不足，大秦线检修结束后铁路 发运提升，港口或有累库风险，边际产能成本、进口煤价倒挂以及长协基准价对 港口煤价有支撑，下行压力亦有限，预计短期现货价仍以窄幅震荡为主，长协价 仍表现出低波韧性。 ➢ 焦煤短期窄幅震荡为主，旺季或有阶段性反弹但空间有限。当前煤价下部分 配焦原煤转为动力煤销售更具性价比，焦煤价格已基本见底，叠加近期高炉持续 复产，铁水产量已提升至 2024 年以来最高水平 244.35 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, among others [2][3][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that coal consumption has decreased due to tariff disruptions, with daily consumption in coastal provinces dropping from 1.871 million tons in late March to 1.760 million tons by April 24, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% [1][7]. - Despite low coal prices, there is a lack of upward momentum for coal prices, with expectations of narrow fluctuations in the short term [1][8]. - The report suggests that while there may be a temporary rebound in coking coal prices due to seasonal demand, the overall price increase potential remains limited [2][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report notes that the coal price has been experiencing narrow fluctuations, with recent prices reported at 657 CNY/ton for Qinhuangdao port, down 8 CNY from the previous week [8]. - The report indicates that the overall coal market is influenced by both weak demand and tariff disruptions, leading to cautious market sentiment [2][8]. Company Performance - Key companies such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal are recommended for their stable performance and strong cash flow [2][11]. - The report provides earnings forecasts for major companies, with China Shenhua expected to have an EPS of 2.95 CNY in 2024, and a PE ratio of 13 [3]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the coal sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a weekly decline of 0.8% in the coal sector compared to gains in major indices [12][14]. - It also notes that the coking coal market is expected to stabilize in the short term due to increased demand for steelmaking [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industry leaders with stable earnings, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with strong cash flow like Jinkong Coal [2][11]. - It emphasizes the defensive value of companies with low debt and high cash flow amidst ongoing tariff disruptions [8].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 69.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 17.6% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.949 billion yuan, down 18.0% year-on-year and 5.14% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company's coal production in Q1 2025 was 83 million tons, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year and 0.2% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Coal Sector Insights - The average cost of self-produced coal in Q1 2025 was 196 yuan per ton, an increase of 2.3% year-on-year and 19.2% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to labor cost provisions and increased repair expenses [1] - The selling price of self-produced coal was 506 yuan per ton, down 11.5% year-on-year and 10.3% quarter-on-quarter, with long-term contract prices showing resilience [1] - Long-term contract sales accounted for 91.6% of total sales in Q1 2025, an increase of 4.3 percentage points from 2024 [1] Group 3: Power Generation Performance - The company generated 50.4 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in Q1 2025, a decrease of 10.7% year-on-year and 8.4% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The average selling price of electricity was 386 yuan per megawatt-hour, down 5.6% year-on-year and 2.3% quarter-on-quarter, while the cost of electricity sold was 354 yuan per megawatt-hour, down 3.1% year-on-year and 1.8% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The total installed capacity reached 47,505 megawatts by the end of Q1 2025, an increase of 1,241 megawatts from the beginning of the year [2] Group 4: Acquisition and Integration - The company completed the acquisition of 100% of Hanjin Energy in February 2025, which reported revenue of 1.025 billion yuan and a net loss of 82 million yuan in Q1 2025, significantly narrowing from a loss of 1.319 billion yuan in the same period last year [3] - Hanjin Energy's coal sales volume was 3.24 million tons in Q1 2025, up from 2.11 million tons in the previous year [3] Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to produce 334.8 million tons of coal and sell 465.9 million tons in 2025, with a capital expenditure of 41.793 billion yuan [5] - The company aims to enhance core competitiveness and support high-quality development through asset integration and optimization of investor returns [4] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with projected net profits of 53.8 billion yuan, 56.1 billion yuan, and 59.1 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 14.3, 13.7, and 13.0 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, with revenue at 69.585 billion yuan, down 21.1% year-on-year and 17.6% quarter-on-quarter, and net profit at 11.949 billion yuan, down 18.0% year-on-year and 5.14% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The acquisition of Hanjin Energy has led to a significant reduction in losses, with Hanjin Energy reporting a revenue of 1.025 billion yuan and a loss of 82 million yuan in Q1 2025, compared to a loss of 1.319 billion yuan in the same period last year [4] - The company is expected to benefit from asset injections and cost reduction initiatives, with a focus on enhancing core competitiveness and optimizing investor returns [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company produced 8.3 million tons of commodity coal, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, and sold 9.9 million tons, down 15% year-on-year [10] - The cost of self-produced coal increased to 196 yuan per ton, up 2.3% year-on-year, while the selling price decreased to 506 yuan per ton, down 11.5% year-on-year [10] - The company's total installed capacity reached 47,505 MW by the end of Q1 2025, an increase of 1,241 MW from the beginning of the year [10] Future Outlook - The company plans to produce 334.8 million tons of commodity coal and sell 465.9 million tons in 2025, with a capital expenditure of 41.793 billion yuan [9] - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 53.796 billion yuan, 56.146 billion yuan, and 59.110 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.3, 13.7, and 13.0 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, with revenue at 69.585 billion yuan, down 21.1% year-on-year and 17.6% quarter-on-quarter, and net profit at 11.949 billion yuan, down 18.0% year-on-year and 5.14% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The acquisition of Hanjin Energy has led to a significant reduction in losses, with Hanjin Energy reporting a revenue of 1.025 billion yuan and a loss of 82 million yuan in Q1 2025, compared to a loss of 1.319 billion yuan in the same period last year [4] - The company is expected to benefit from asset injections and cost reduction initiatives, with a focus on enhancing core competitiveness and optimizing investor returns [4][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company produced 83 million tons of commodity coal, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, and sold 99 million tons, down 15% year-on-year [10] - The cost of self-produced coal increased to 196 yuan per ton, up 2.3% year-on-year, while the selling price decreased to 506 yuan per ton, down 11.5% year-on-year [10] - The company's total installed capacity reached 47,505 MW by the end of Q1 2025, an increase of 1,241 MW from the beginning of the year [10] Future Outlook - The company plans to produce 334.8 million tons of commodity coal and sell 465.9 million tons in 2025, with a capital expenditure of 41.793 billion yuan [9] - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 53.796 billion yuan, 56.146 billion yuan, and 59.110 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.3, 13.7, and 13.0 [10]

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua's Q1 2025 performance is under pressure, with significant declines in revenue and net profit due to decreased coal sales volume and average selling prices [1][5]. Financial Performance - Revenue for Q1 2025 was 69.585 billion RMB, a decrease of 21.1% compared to the same period last year [2][3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.949 billion RMB, down 18% year-on-year [2][3]. - Net profit excluding non-recurring items was 11.705 billion RMB, reflecting a 28.9% decline [2][3]. - Basic earnings per share were 0.601 RMB, a decrease of 18.0% [2][3]. - Cash flow from operating activities was 20.538 billion RMB, down 25.9% [2]. Core Business Metrics - Coal sales volume was 99.3 million tons, a decline of 15.3% year-on-year [4][5]. - Total power generation was 50.42 billion kWh, down 10.7% [4][5]. - Self-owned railway transport turnover was 72.5 billion ton-km, a decrease of 11.6% [4][5]. Price Trends - Average coal selling price (excluding tax) was 506 RMB/ton, down 11.5% year-on-year [4][5]. - Average electricity selling price was 386 RMB/MWh, a decrease of 5.6% [4][5]. Business Segment Analysis - The coal segment generated 51.6 billion RMB in revenue, down 25.7%, with a profit of 10.1 billion RMB, down 16.6% [6][9]. - The power generation segment reported revenue of 20.854 billion RMB, a decline of 14.7%, with a profit of 2.625 billion RMB, down 17.2% [9]. - The transportation segment faced challenges, with profits declining across railway, port, and shipping divisions, particularly shipping, which saw a 69.6% drop in profit [11][12]. Strategic Adjustments - The company has adjusted its sales strategy, increasing the proportion of long-term contracts from 49.9% to 63.9%, while significantly reducing lower-margin spot sales, which fell by 71% [7][8].

Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was RMB 69,585 million, a decrease of 21.1% compared to RMB 88,162 million in the same period last year[7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was RMB 13,374 million, down 19.0% from RMB 16,521 million in the previous year[7]. - Basic earnings per share for Q1 2025 were RMB 0.673, a decline of 19.0% from RMB 0.831 in the same period last year[7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders under Chinese accounting standards for Q1 2025 was RMB 11,949 million, down from RMB 14,564 million in Q1 2024[11]. - Pre-tax profit decreased by 18.4% to RMB 11,378 million in Q1 2025 from RMB 13,947 million in Q1 2024[33]. - Pre-tax profit for 2025 was RMB 19,592 million, down 16.8% from RMB 23,575 million in 2024[51]. - Net profit for 2025 was RMB 16,298 million, a decrease of 16.5% compared to RMB 19,549 million in 2024[51]. - Total comprehensive income for 2025 was RMB 16,319 million, down 16.5% from RMB 19,534 million in 2024[51]. - Basic earnings per share for 2025 was RMB 0.673, a decline of 19% from RMB 0.831 in 2024[51]. Cash Flow and Assets - Cash inflow from operating activities for Q1 2025 was RMB 20,538 million, a decrease of 25.9% compared to RMB 27,708 million in Q1 2024[7]. - As of March 31, 2025, the company's cash and cash equivalents increased by 18.6% to RMB 78,742 million compared to RMB 66,413 million on December 31, 2024, due to net cash inflow from operating activities[15]. - The net cash inflow from operating activities for Q1 2025 was RMB 20,538 million, a decrease of 25.9% from RMB 27,708 million in Q1 2024, attributed to a decline in revenue from coal, power generation, and transportation businesses[17]. - Total assets as of March 31, 2025, were RMB 675,837 million, reflecting a slight increase of 0.6% from RMB 671,639 million at the end of the previous year[7]. - Total non-current assets as of March 31, 2025, were RMB 467,128 million, an increase of 0.1% from RMB 464,500 million at the end of 2024[53]. - Total current assets as of March 31, 2025, were RMB 208,709 million, slightly up from RMB 207,139 million at the end of 2024[53]. - Total liabilities decreased to RMB 159,423 million as of March 31, 2025, from RMB 171,377 million at the end of 2024, reflecting a reduction of 6.9%[54]. Operational Highlights - The acquisition of 100% equity in Hanjin Energy was completed on February 11, 2025, contributing RMB 1,025 million in revenue for Q1 2025[9]. - Hanjin Energy's coal sales volume for Q1 2025 was 3.24 million tons, an increase from 2.11 million tons in the same period last year[9]. - The company reported a decrease in electricity sales volume and average selling price, impacting overall revenue[14]. - The coal production volume in Q1 2025 was 82.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.1% from 83.4 million tons in Q1 2024[26]. - The coal sales volume dropped by 15.3% to 99.3 million tons in Q1 2025 from 117.3 million tons in Q1 2024[26]. - The average selling price of coal decreased by 11.5% to RMB 506 per ton in Q1 2025 from RMB 572 per ton in Q1 2024[31]. - The average utilization hours for domestic power generation decreased by 13.6% to 1,062 hours in Q1 2025 from 1,229 hours in Q1 2024[38]. - The group added 1,241 MW of new installed capacity during the reporting period, including 1,200 MW from the acquisition of Hanjin Energy[41]. Cost and Expenses - Operating costs for Q1 2025 decreased by 20.8% to RMB 48,254 million from RMB 60,962 million in Q1 2024[14]. - The unit production cost of self-produced coal increased by 6.2% to RMB 180.2 per ton in Q1 2025 from RMB 169.7 per ton in Q1 2024[37]. - The gross profit margin remained stable at 25.5% in Q1 2025, unchanged from Q1 2024[33]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 15.1%, down from 16.6% in Q1 2024, reflecting a decrease of 1.5 percentage points[43]. - The company's accounts payable and notes payable decreased by 20.6% to RMB 30,927 million from RMB 38,961 million, indicating a reduction in payable materials and project costs[15]. - The company's prepaid expenses and other current assets increased by 8.1% to RMB 17,883 million, driven by increased prepayments for land costs[15]. - The company reported a significant reduction in investment cash outflow, which decreased by 94.9% to RMB (1,268) million in Q1 2025 from RMB (25,084) million in Q1 2024, due to a decrease in fixed deposits[17]. Shareholder Information - The total number of ordinary shareholders at the end of the reporting period was 193,774, with A-share shareholders accounting for 192,026[18]. - The largest shareholder, State Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd., holds 69.52% of the shares, totaling 13,812,709,196 shares[20].