News Summary Core Viewpoint - The lead market in 2026 is expected to experience a supply surplus and weak demand, leading to price fluctuations within a range of 16,000 to 18,000 yuan per ton. Seasonal factors may create temporary supply-demand gaps that could elevate prices [4]. Group 1: Market Inventory and Production - As of December 26, 2025, Shanghai lead futures inventory decreased by 780 tons to 27,095 tons [1]. - On January 2, 2026, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported registered lead warrants of 162,500 tons, with canceled warrants down by 6,025 tons to 76,825 tons, and total lead inventory reduced by 2,600 tons to 239,325 tons [1]. - A medium-sized recycled lead smelting enterprise in Southwest China plans to reduce production by 20%-30% in January due to ongoing raw material supply constraints [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is seeing a slight increase in ore and waste battery recovery, with refined lead production continuing to grow [4]. - Demand is supported by policies encouraging replacements, with positive growth in electric two-wheelers and potential increases in energy storage and lead-carbon batteries. However, exports of lead-acid batteries may decline due to high Shanghai-London price ratios, trade frictions, and tariffs in the Middle East [4]. - The overall assessment indicates a slight domestic surplus, with seasonal consumption expected to pressure prices after a minor uptick at the beginning of the year [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trading Recommendations - Recent reductions in recycled lead production are primarily due to raw material supply issues, compounded by environmental controls in East and North China [4]. - Downstream large manufacturers are experiencing weaker operations, attributed to the end-of-month accounting period, although there remains some buying activity in the spot market [4]. - The terminal demand is showing significant differentiation, with replacement demand affected by new national standards and automotive battery consumption entering a peak season, though the seasonal effect may not match previous years due to competition from lithium alternatives [4]. - Inventory levels are currently fluctuating downwards, with no significant short-term recovery expected, leading to limited upward potential for lead prices. A cautious trading approach is recommended [4].

Group 1 - The report focuses on the development of the IP fun food industry under the trend of emotional consumption, analyzing industry scale, core competitiveness, competitive landscape, and investment opportunities [1] - The IP fun food market in China is expected to grow from 18.1 billion yuan in 2020 to 35.4 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 18.2%, while the IP fun food segment is projected to grow from 5.6 billion yuan to 11.5 billion yuan, achieving a CAGR of 19.6% [1][9] - The growth is driven by the younger generation, particularly those born in the 90s and 00s, who are becoming the main force in emotional consumption, with nearly 90% of youth having experience in emotional spending [1][21] Group 2 - The core competitiveness of the industry lies in supply chain management and IP operation, with the ability to control raw material costs and efficient production and distribution being fundamental barriers [2][12] - The competitive landscape is fragmented, with many small and medium-sized enterprises participating, and the leading company, Jintian Animation, holding only 7.6% market share in 2024 [2][12] - The rise of domestic brands is notable, with Jintian Animation entering the top five in the industry by 2024, indicating a shift in market dominance from foreign to local brands [2][12] Group 3 - Jintian Animation focuses on the 0-12 age group and has 26 popular IP licenses, with revenue expected to grow from 596 million yuan in 2022 to 877 million yuan in 2024, and net profit increasing from 37 million yuan to 131 million yuan [3] - The company has a gross margin of 33.7%, with over 70% of its revenue coming from the Ultraman and My Little Pony IPs, and is rapidly expanding its direct sales channels [3]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the Chinese securities industry underwent profound changes under the strategy of "cultivating first-class investment banks," marked by resource integration, technological empowerment, and ecological restructuring, signaling a new chapter for the industry. Group 1: Major Events - The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities in 2025 established a new "dual leader" pattern in the industry, with the combined entity "Guotai Haitong" reporting a net profit of 22.074 billion yuan, closely following CITIC Securities' 23.159 billion yuan, both surpassing the 20 billion yuan mark [4] - The first "three-in-one" integration in the industry is being planned by CICC, Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities, which, if completed, will create a new model for industry integration with total assets exceeding 1 trillion yuan [5] - The margin trading balance reached a historical high of 2.551734 trillion yuan by December 29, 2025, accounting for 2.59% of the A-share market's circulating market value, with a 288% year-on-year increase in new accounts opened in September 2025 [6] Group 2: Regulatory and Structural Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission revised and renamed the "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations" in 2025, focusing on guiding the industry to serve national strategies and enhancing professional capabilities [7] - AI applications in securities firms accelerated, with leading institutions showcasing advancements at the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, enhancing capabilities in investment research and risk control [8] Group 3: Leadership and Talent Dynamics - Over 10 chief economists in the securities industry changed positions in 2025, primarily due to the merger wave, indicating a significant reshuffling of talent [9] - More than 50 securities firms experienced changes in leadership roles, with approximately one-third of firms undergoing a "leadership change," driven by factors such as retirement and shareholder changes due to mergers [10] Group 4: Market Competition and Trends - Despite the rising trend of "anti-involution," a price war among securities firms intensified, with commission rates dropping to as low as 0.01% and financing rates falling below 4%, highlighting the need for the industry to return to its core financial services [11] - Securities firms were first included as issuers of Sci-Tech Innovation Bonds in May 2025, with total issuance exceeding 80 billion yuan since then, enhancing their competitive edge [12] - The wave of public fund business that began in 2022 receded in 2025, with several institutions withdrawing their applications for public fund qualifications, indicating a shift in business models [14]

Core Viewpoint - The ranking of financing service companies is based on a comprehensive evaluation of both hard and soft strength indicators, reflecting their market value and industry position [1][2]. Hard Strength Indicators - Hard strength indicators focus on data-driven market competitiveness, emphasizing the importance of quantitative metrics in assessing a company's performance [2]. Soft Strength Assessment - Soft strength evaluation considers service quality and innovation capabilities, highlighting the need for companies to provide unique and effective solutions to clients [2]. Top 4 Companies Overview - The top four companies have emerged as industry benchmarks due to their hard and soft strengths, effectively matching diverse financing needs of enterprises [2]. 1. Houxin Capital - Houxin Capital is a leading player in vertical financing for the education sector, focusing on comprehensive services including financing, mergers and acquisitions, IPO guidance, and value management [3]. - The company has a strong team with an average of over 10 years of industry experience, leveraging a global resource network to optimize financing costs and achieve capital goals [3]. - Successful case examples include assisting a vocational technical college in increasing profits from 2.65 million in 2023 to an expected 24 million in 2024 through strategic resource optimization [4]. 2. Guotai Junan - Guotai Junan specializes in capital operations for small and medium-sized enterprises, creating an ecosystem that combines sponsorship and direct investment [5]. - The company has a market share exceeding 15% in equity financing, demonstrating its strong market recognition [5]. - A notable case involved providing integrated services for a small enterprise, leading to significant growth in performance and stock price [6]. 3. Zhonghe Guarantee - Zhonghe Guarantee, backed by state capital, focuses on policy-based financing for small and micro enterprises, with a registered capital of 5.126 billion and a guarantee balance exceeding 80 billion in 2024 [7]. - The company offers competitive guarantee rates, significantly reducing financing costs for small enterprises [7]. - A key case involved providing credit guarantee services to a biotech company, enabling it to secure an 8 million loan for technology development [8]. 4. CICC International Department - CICC International Department is a leader in cross-border financing, with capabilities in underwriting for Hong Kong, US, and Chinese concept stocks [8]. - The department led the issuance of over 20 billion USD in overseas bonds for Chinese enterprises in 2024, showcasing its significant influence in the international bond market [8]. - A successful case included serving as the sole sponsor for a leading new energy vehicle company’s IPO in Hong Kong, raising over 5 billion HKD [8]. Financing Service Selection Guide - Companies should choose financing service institutions based on their specific needs and risk avoidance strategies [9]. - For startups needing less than 5 million, localized institutions are recommended for quick approvals [12]. - Growth-stage companies should consider full-license brokers or policy guarantee institutions to balance financing costs and capital operation planning [12]. - Large enterprises should rely on top institutions for complex financing needs [12]. Future Trends in Financing Services - The financing service industry is expected to accelerate towards specialization, verticalization, and intelligence by 2025, shifting competition from scale to comprehensive strength [13]. - The highlighted companies provide clear financing solutions tailored to different sectors and stages of development, emphasizing the importance of aligning with industry trends [13].

Group 1 - As of the report date, 1494 A-share companies have implemented share buybacks in 2025, with a total amount exceeding 1392.84 billion yuan [1] - Among these, 14 companies have repurchased more than 1 billion yuan, with Midea Group leading at 115.45 billion yuan [1] - Other notable companies include Kweichow Moutai with 59.99 billion yuan and CATL with 43.87 billion yuan in buybacks [1] Group 2 - The top companies by buyback amount include: - Midea Group: 15,707.08 thousand shares, 115.45 billion yuan [1] - Kweichow Moutai: 392.76 thousand shares, 59.99 billion yuan [1] - CATL: 1,606.23 thousand shares, 43.87 billion yuan [1] - XCMG Machinery: 35,771.18 thousand shares, 30.50 billion yuan [1] - Muyuan Foods: 5,749.49 thousand shares, 25.01 billion yuan [1]

Core Insights - The China Securities Association released the rankings for securities firms in 2025, reflecting their performance in investment banking, financial advisory, and bond business quality [1][2] Group 1: Evaluation Results - A total of 93 securities firms were evaluated for their investment banking quality, with 12 classified as A, 66 as B, and 15 as C [2][5] - The A-rated firms include Dongwu Securities, Guojin Securities, Guotai Junan, Guotou Securities, Guoxin Securities, Huatai United, Ping An Securities, Changcheng Securities, China Merchants Securities, CICC, CITIC Securities, and Bank of China Securities [6][11] Group 2: Financial Advisory Evaluation - The financial advisory business evaluation included 30 firms, with 5 rated A, 19 rated B, and 6 rated C [6][7] - A-rated financial advisory firms are Huatai United, Galaxy Securities, CICC, CITIC Jianan, and CITIC Securities [7] Group 3: Bond Business Evaluation - The bond business evaluation involved 95 firms, resulting in 14 rated A, 62 rated B, and 19 rated C [10][11] - A-rated bond firms include Caixin Securities, Dongwu Securities, Guojin Securities, Guotai Junan, Guoxin Securities, Ping An Securities, and others [10] Group 4: Future Directions - The China Securities Association aims to guide firms to enhance their professional capabilities and service quality, shifting from price competition to value competition [11]

Group 1 - The core theme of the article is the significant increase in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activities in the A-share market in 2025, with a total of 4,515 projects reported, marking a 1.64% year-on-year growth and a total transaction value exceeding 19.1 trillion yuan, up 5.83% year-on-year [2][3] - Major asset restructuring events have surged, with 148 significant M&A transactions recorded, reflecting a 49.49% increase year-on-year [2] - The central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are the main drivers of large-scale M&A projects, with 23 projects exceeding 10 billion yuan, highlighting their pivotal role in the market [4] Group 2 - The transformation of the capital market from a financing-centric model to a resource allocation-focused model is emphasized, driven by policy support and industrial dynamics [3] - The restructuring activities are not merely about transaction recovery but signify a structural change aimed at enhancing productivity and innovation within industries [3][7] - The focus of M&A transactions has shifted towards technology innovation and industrial upgrades, with companies seeking to acquire key technologies and enter emerging sectors [7] Group 3 - Notable M&A cases include China Shenhua's acquisition of 12 core enterprises from its controlling shareholder, with a total transaction value of 133.6 billion yuan, and CICC's proposed merger with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, valued at 114.3 billion yuan [5][6] - The market has seen various "firsts" in M&A transactions, such as cross-industry mergers and acquisitions following the implementation of new regulatory frameworks [6] - Despite the termination of the merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang, the semiconductor and high-tech industries continue to see active M&A activities, indicating sustained interest in these sectors [8]

1. Report Date - The report is dated December 31, 2025 [2] 2. Treasury Bond Futures Transaction Summary 2.1 Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - T2603: Closing price 107.86, down 0.07%; volume 93,519, up 30%; turnover 100.8 billion, up 30%; open interest 223,646, down 6,646; margin 4.82 billion [3] - T2606: Closing price 107.88, down 0.06%; volume 5,005, up 17%; turnover 5.4 billion, up 17%; open interest 11,156, up 124; margin 240 million [3] - T2609: Closing price 107.74, down 0.08%; volume 548, down 4%; turnover 600 million, down 4%; open interest 1,317, up 156; margin 30 million [3] - Total: Volume 99,072, up 29%; turnover 106.8 billion, up 29%; open interest 236,119, down 6,366; margin 5.09 billion [3] 2.2 Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - TF2603: Closing price 105.76, down 0.04%; volume 66,075, down 3%; turnover 69.9 billion, down 3%; open interest 147,910, up 595; margin 1.88 billion [3] - TF2606: Closing price 105.75, down 0.04%; volume 5,300, up 79%; turnover 5.6 billion, up 79%; open interest 15,693, up 575; margin 200 million [3] - TF2609: Closing price 105.62, down 0.03%; volume 72, up 3%; turnover 100 million, up 3%; open interest 1,757, up 26; margin 20 million [3] - Total: Volume 71,447, up 1%; turnover 75.5 billion, up 1%; open interest 165,360, up 1,196; margin 2.1 billion [3] 2.3 Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - TL2603: Closing price 111.41, down 0.35%; volume 117,690, up 41%; turnover 130.9 billion, up 41%; open interest 142,077, up 998; margin 5.54 billion [3] - TL2606: Closing price 111.63, down 0.37%; volume 10,496, up 56%; turnover 11.7 billion, up 55%; open interest 25,486, up 676; margin 1 billion [3] - TL2609: Closing price 111.40, down 0.33%; volume 472, up 387%; turnover 500 million, up 384%; open interest 1,202, up 71; margin 50 million [3] - Total: Volume 128,658, up 43%; turnover 143.1 billion, up 42%; open interest 168,765, up 1,745; margin 6.58 billion [3] 2.4 Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - TS2603: Closing price 102.45, down 0.03%; volume 39,159, down 5%; turnover 80.2 billion, down 5%; open interest 74,199, down 1,931; margin 760 million [3] - TS2606: Closing price 102.49, down 0.03%; volume 472, up 278%; turnover 1 billion, up 277%; open interest 2,687, up 20; margin 30 million [3] - TS2609: Closing price 102.50, down 0.04%; volume 525, up 108%; turnover 1.1 billion, up 107%; open interest 741, up 50; margin 10 million [3] - Total: Volume 40,156, down 4%; turnover 82.3 billion, down 4%; open interest 77,627, down 1,861; margin 800 million [3] 3. Treasury Bond Futures Net Open Interest - There are charts showing the net open interest of ten - year, five - year, thirty - year, and two - year Treasury bond futures for different periods, including the top five, top ten, and top twenty positions [5] 4. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures Position Details 4.1 T2603 Contract - In terms of trading volume, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 40,023 and an increase of 6,509, Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 28,884 and an increase of 10,130, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 16,495 and an increase of 1,894 [8] - For long positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 50,890, Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 31,057 and a decrease of 296, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 29,996 and a decrease of 1,855 [8] - For short positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 34,251 and a decrease of 10, Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 25,216 and a decrease of 4,858, and China Merchants Futures (on behalf of clients) with 19,256 and a decrease of 61 [8] 4.2 T2606 Contract - In terms of trading volume, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 3,572 and an increase of 1,084, Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients) with 998 and an increase of 177, and Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 988 and a decrease of 667 [10] - For long positions, the top three are Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 3,419, Galaxy Futures (on behalf of clients) with 1,246, and Hongyuan Futures (on behalf of clients) with 891 [10] - For short positions, the top three are Galaxy Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,641 and an increase of 27, Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 1,430, and GF Futures (on behalf of clients) with 1,048 and a decrease of 48 [10] 5. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures Position Details 5.1 TF2603 Contract - In terms of trading volume, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 24,885 and a decrease of 730, Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 23,092 and an increase of 2,721, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 10,895 and a decrease of 5,128 [12] - For long positions, the top three are Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 32,897 and an increase of 4,887, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 27,254 and a decrease of 123, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 9,872 and a decrease of 772 [12] - For short positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 25,676 and an increase of 350, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 16,413 and an increase of 331, and Ping An Futures (on behalf of clients) with 13,685 and a decrease of 477 [12] 5.2 TF2606 Contract - In terms of trading volume, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,049 and an increase of 946, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 1,583 and an increase of 1,275, and Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 1,506 and an increase of 159 [14] - For long positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 4,269 and a decrease of 342, Xingzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) with 1,784, and Galaxy Futures (on behalf of clients) with 1,382 and an increase of 105 [14] - For short positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 3,119 and an increase of 1, Huatai Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,348, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 2,318 and an increase of 1,000 [14] 6. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures Position Details 6.1 TL2603 Contract - In terms of trading volume, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 39,632 and an increase of 11,428, Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 24,643 and an increase of 6,198, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 19,077 and an increase of 5,014 [15] - For long positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 16,270 and an increase of 588, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 16,201 and a decrease of 453, and Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 12,796 and an increase of 139 [15] - For short positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 17,400 and a decrease of 462, Galaxy Futures (on behalf of clients) with 13,711 and an increase of 25, and Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 13,473 and a decrease of 1,462 [15] 6.2 TL2606 Contract - In terms of trading volume, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 3,816 and a decrease of 105, Haitong Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,629 and an increase of 691, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 2,626 and an increase of 910 [18] - For long positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 8,197, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 2,398, and Galaxy Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,258 [18] - For short positions, the top three are Galaxy Futures (on behalf of clients) with 4,951 and an increase of 136, Guojin Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,944 and a decrease of 94, and Huatai Futures (on behalf of clients) with 2,559 and an increase of 240 [18] 7. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures Position Details 7.1 TS2603 Contract - In terms of trading volume, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 17,261 and an increase of 1,419, Orient Securities Futures (on behalf of clients) with 11,976 and an increase of 896, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 5,834 and a decrease of 4,549 [19] - For long positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 13,550, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 6,297 and a decrease of 21, and CITIC Construction Investment (on behalf of clients) with 6,233 and an increase of 45 [19] - For short positions, the top three are CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 19,436 and a decrease of 1,243, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 10,833 and an increase of 475, and GF Futures (on behalf of clients) with 8,703 and an increase of 27 [19] 7.2 TS2606 Contract - All trading volume, long - position, and short - position data are 0 [22]

Group 1 - The A-share IPO market in 2025 has shown significant performance, with a total of 116 companies successfully listed, representing a year-on-year increase of 16% [1][3] - The total funds raised through IPOs reached 131.77 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 95.64% [1][3] - The average amount raised per IPO was 1.136 billion yuan, which is an increase of 68.66% compared to the previous year [1][3] Group 2 - A total of 30 brokerage firms (including parent and subsidiary companies) participated in A-share IPO sponsorship projects [1][3] - Guotai Junan ranked first in the industry with 17 sponsorship projects, showing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 142.86% [1][3] - CITIC Securities led in underwriting revenue with 1.166 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.84%, accounting for 18.10% of the total underwriting fees for the year [1][3]

Core Insights - The year 2025 marked significant transformations in China's capital market, characterized by index breakthroughs and ecological restructuring, including the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points and the handling of the Dongxu Group's 600 billion yuan fraud case [1][10] Group 1: Major Transformations - The most important ideological shift was from "heavy financing" to "coordinated investment and financing," emphasizing a balanced ecosystem and investor returns through improved systems for dividends, buybacks, and mergers [2][12] - A strong consensus emerged around market value management, transitioning from a niche practice to a standard across the market, with 1001 A-share companies disclosing value management systems by November, a fivefold increase from earlier in the year [2][12] Group 2: Key Market Trends - The hottest sectors were AI and hard technology, with the launch of DeepSeek-R1 in January triggering a massive influx of capital into the AI industry chain, leading to a significant revaluation of related stocks [2][13] - A major shift in funding structures occurred, with insurance and social security funds increasing equity asset allocations, and a "deposit migration" trend among residents as savings rates fell below 1% [2][14] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - 2025 was marked by stringent regulatory enforcement, highlighted by the forced delisting of major companies like Dongxu Group for significant fraud, with over 60 companies delisted throughout the year [3][5] - The year also saw a focus on mergers and acquisitions as a strategic solution for asset revaluation, with notable transactions including Guotai Junan's acquisition of Haitong Securities [3][15] Group 4: Notable Reforms - The launch of the "1+6" reform series for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board aimed to enhance the inclusivity and adaptability of the capital market, facilitating the listing of unprofitable companies [5][16] Group 5: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high, crossing the 4000-point mark for the first time since August 2015, reflecting a significant recovery in market confidence [6][16] - The total trading volume of A-shares reached a record 29.92 trillion shares, with a total transaction value exceeding 419.86 trillion yuan, marking a 63% increase from 2024 [6][16] Group 6: Unexpected Developments - Hong Kong's stock market made a remarkable comeback, becoming the world's best-performing market with IPO fundraising returning to the top globally and the Hang Seng Index achieving its best annual performance since 2017 [7][17] - The most profitable new stocks were the domestic GPU companies, Moer Thread and Muxi Co., with record profits from initial public offerings, indicating strong market support for domestic GPU alternatives [8][18]