Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan highlights the increasing importance of the derivatives business for brokerage firms, emphasizing its role in the differentiation of proprietary trading operations as the industry evolves. Group 1: Development of Derivatives Business - The brokerage derivatives business experienced rapid growth from 2018 to 2022, with the nominal principal of over-the-counter derivatives increasing from 346.7 billion to 2,086.8 billion, achieving a CAGR of 57% [1] - During the same period, the contribution of derivatives business to brokerage firms' performance also rose significantly, exemplified by CITIC Securities, whose equity derivatives revenue grew from 0.89 billion to 5.62 billion, with a CAGR of 58%, increasing its share of total revenue from 7% to 22% [1] - The development of the domestic OTC derivatives market has gone through four significant phases since its inception in 2012, with regulatory policies and changes in capital market conditions being the two key factors influencing its growth [1] Group 2: Differentiation Among Brokerages - The evolution of brokerage proprietary trading models has led to a critical differentiation based on the growth certainty provided by derivatives business, contrasting with the previous model of simple expansion in fixed income and stagnation in equity trading [2] - In the current environment, where there is a contraction in proprietary trading and uncertainty in returns, brokerages that can rely on derivatives for stable expansion will have stronger growth certainty and more robust investment returns, marking a key factor in the profitability differentiation among brokerages [2] Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Derivatives Business - The regulation of derivatives business in China is becoming more standardized, with the recent "14th Five-Year Plan" advocating for the steady development of futures, derivatives, and asset securitization, indicating a long-term positive trend for the derivatives business [3] - Both domestic and international experiences show that the derivatives business benefits from market activity and exhibits stable models with strong scale effects, leading to a preference for top-tier brokerages that can leverage client bases, first-mover advantages, and professional capabilities to create competitive barriers [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-bank financial sector for 2026, indicating strong upward momentum for the industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is expected to experience a significant upward breakthrough in 2026, driven by improved chip structure, reduced turnover rates, and a favorable valuation environment. The sector is currently undervalued compared to its earnings potential [4]. - The insurance sector shows signs of stabilization post the interest rate switch, with premium growth expected to improve in 2026, particularly in the life insurance segment [4]. - Regulatory changes, including the completion of public fund fee reforms, are anticipated to benefit the non-bank financial sector by reducing costs for investors and enhancing market participation [4][22]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,629.94 with a decline of 0.59% over the week. The non-bank index fell by 1.84%, with brokerages and insurance indices declining by 1.37% and 3.33%, respectively [8][10]. Non-Bank Financial Insights - The brokerage sector's index underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.78 percentage points in 2025, with a total decline of 2.05% for the year. In contrast, major A-share indices saw significant gains [4]. - The insurance sector's original premium income reached 5.76 trillion yuan from January to November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.6%. The life insurance segment grew by 9.2% during the same period [4][31]. Investment Analysis - For brokerages, the report recommends focusing on leading firms with strong competitive advantages, such as Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities, as well as those with high earnings elasticity like Huatai Securities [4]. - In the insurance sector, companies like China Life and Ping An are highlighted for their potential in the upcoming market revaluation, with a focus on the growth of new business premiums [4]. Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has implemented new rules for public real estate investment trusts (REITs), expanding financing options for commercial properties [21]. - The completion of the public fund fee reform is expected to lower overall fund costs by approximately 20%, saving investors around 51 billion yuan annually [22].

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities has raised the target price for Immune-Oncologics (09606) to HKD 455.56 based on the optimistic progress of its pipeline leading to potential global sales peak for HER2ADC DB1303, B7H3ADC DB1311, and HER3ADC DB1310 [1] Group 1 - The company is expected to have a rich catalyst in 2026, with anticipated data readouts including final results for HER2ADC in EC and BC indications, clinical results for B7H3ADC, HER2ADC, and TROP2ADC combined with PDL1*VEGF dual antibody BNT327, and updates on early clinical data for BD pipeline B7H4ADCEGFR*HER3ADC and CDH17ADC [2] - The company has confidence in the global registration results and NDA for HER2ADC DB1303 in 2026, based on the smooth progress of two registration clinical trials in 2025 and the optimistic attitude from BNTX's latest R&D day [2] - The company anticipates launching the first global registration Phase III clinical trial for B7H3ADC DB1311 targeting 2L CRPC (chemo naïve) in 2026, given its potential for broad-spectrum solid tumors and outstanding efficacy in CRPC [2] Group 2 - The company expects to continue advancing DB1310 in the global clinical development for 2L+HR+/HER2-BC in 2026, based on the initiation of MSD's HER3ADC in the same indication and DB1310's superior clinical performance [3] - The company believes that DB1305's efficacy can be comparable to DATO, based on updates on solid tumors and TNBC data in 2025 [3] - The company is optimistic about the performance of BNTX's PDL1*VEGF dual antibody BNT327 combined with DB1311 and DB1303DB1305, considering the rapid global clinical progress and rich data volume from both BNTX and Immune-Oncologics [3]

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities has raised the target price for Immune-Onc Biologics-B (09606) to HKD 455.56, maintaining a buy rating based on the promising progress of its pipeline leading to increased global peak sales expectations for HER2ADC DB1303, B7H3ADC DB1311, and HER3ADC DB1310 [1] Group 1 - The company is expected to have a rich catalyst in 2026, with anticipated data readouts including final results for HER2ADC in EC and BC indications, clinical results for B7H3ADC, HER2ADC, and TROP2ADC combined with PDL1*VEGF dual antibody BNT327, early clinical data updates for B7H4ADCEGFR*HER3ADC, and clinical progress updates for CDH17ADC [2] - Confidence is high for the global registration results and NDA for HER2ADC DB1303 in 2L+EC and 2L HR+/HER2-BC indications in 2026, driven by the smooth progress of two registration clinical trials in 2025 and optimistic attitudes from BNTX's latest R&D day [2] - The company is expected to initiate the first global registration Phase III clinical trial for B7H3ADC DB1311 targeting 2L CRPC (chemo naive) in 2026, based on its demonstrated potential for broad-spectrum solid tumors and notable efficacy in CRPC in 2025 [2] Group 2 - The company anticipates continued global clinical development for DB1310 in the 2L+HR+/HER2-BC indication in 2026, supported by the initiation of MSD's HER3ADC in the same indication and superior clinical performance of DB1310 [3] - The efficacy of TROP2ADC DB1305 is expected to be comparable to DATO, based on data updates for solid tumors and TNBC in 2025 [3] - The company is optimistic about the performance of BNTX's PDL1*VEGF dual antibody BNT327 combined with DB1311 and DB1303DB1305, given the demonstrated effectiveness of various combinations in multiple indications compared to PD(L)1 monoclonal antibody plus chemotherapy [3]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment is rated at 61, categorized as "relatively hot," suggesting a strong investor confidence in the market [2][10] - Key themes identified include robotics, banking, and brokerage sectors, with significant developments and investment opportunities highlighted in each area [6] Group 1: Robotics Sector - The establishment of a national standard organization for humanoid robots and embodied intelligence on December 26, 2025, marks a transition from "technical exploration" to "industrial collaboration" and "scale implementation," which is expected to accelerate technology deployment and ecosystem formation [6] - Related investment opportunities include companies such as Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050) and Wolong Electric Drive (600580) [6] Group 2: Banking Sector - Banking stocks are characterized by high dividend yields, with the China Securities Banking Index yielding 6.02%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield, making them attractive for long-term investors like insurance and social security funds [6] - Notable banking stocks include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [6] Group 3: Brokerage Sector - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's chairman emphasized on December 6 the need for differentiated regulation, which aims to support high-quality institutions while limiting weaker ones, thus enhancing capital efficiency [6] - The focus is shifting from mere scale and growth to high-quality development, with recommendations for brokerage firms to differentiate their operations [6] - Relevant brokerage stocks include CITIC Securities (600030) and Guotai Junan Securities (601211) [6]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the public fund fee reform has concluded, and insurance companies are expected to perform well, indicating potential investment opportunities in the spring market [1][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.84 points, up 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.58% [11]. - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.30% week-on-week [6]. Group 2: Insurance Sector - Insurance companies are anticipated to maintain high growth in performance, with short-term results expected to exceed expectations and long-term interest rate spreads likely to improve [17]. - The Ministry of Finance released a draft revision of the accounting standards, enhancing the clarity of profit sources for insurance companies and improving comparability across industries [17]. - Key stocks to watch in the insurance sector include China Ping An, China Life, and New China Life, among others [17]. Group 3: Securities Sector - The public fund fee reform is expected to save investors approximately 51 billion yuan annually, with a fee reduction of about 20% [18]. - The reform includes differentiated redemption fee structures aimed at promoting long-term investment and reducing short-term trading behaviors [19]. - The introduction of new REITs regulations is expected to enhance the market's quality and expand opportunities for securities firms [24][28]. Group 4: Valuation and Financial Analysis - China Ping An (601318.SH) has a target price of 85.17 yuan, with an estimated EPS of 8.91 yuan for 2025, reflecting a PE ratio of 7.68 [7]. - New China Life (601336.SH) has a target price of 94.21 yuan, with an estimated EPS of 14.04 yuan for 2025, indicating a PE ratio of 4.96 [7]. - The report suggests that the valuation metrics for various companies in the sector indicate potential upside, with several stocks rated as "Buy" [7].

锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：假期间震荡偏弱 强弱分析：中性 价格区间：305000-335000元/吨 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01-03 01-14 01-26 02-10 02-24 03-07 03-18 03-29 04-11 04-22 05-06 05-17 05-28 06-10 06-21 07-04 07-15 07-26 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-09 09-20 10-08 10-20 10-31 11-11 11-22 12-06 12-20 吨 SMM社会库存 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. raid on Venezuela may increase crude oil volatility, but the overall expected impact is limited [11][12]. - U.S. weekly employment data has improved, and the economic surprise index has rebounded, leading to a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index [14][15][16]. - The short - term "theoretical dollar" has rebounded, and the dollar index is in an undervalued position compared to the model. The dollar is expected to strengthen in the short - term after the New Year, with a short - term target of 99 - 99.5 [31]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Performance of Major Asset Classes and Market High - Frequency Data Fixed Income - U.S. Treasury yields of various maturities showed different weekly changes. For example, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 6.3bp to 4.19% on January 2, 2026 [33][34]. - Major developed government bond yields also had weekly changes, such as the 10 - year German government bond yield increasing by 3.8bp to 2.90% [33][34]. Exchange Rate Market - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.46% to 98.4240 on January 2, 2026. Other major currencies had different weekly performances, like the euro falling 0.45% and the yen rising 0.17% [68][70]. Commodities - Global major commodities had different weekly changes. For example, Shanghai gold fell 3.66%, while Shanghai copper rose 2.23% [110][111][112]. Overseas Equities - Global major indices had different weekly performances. The S&P 500 index fell 1.06%, while the European Stoxx600 index rose 1.26% [137][138][139]. - S&P index sub - sectors also had different weekly performances. The S&P energy index rose 3.00%, while the S&P optional consumer index fell 3.60% [140][141][142]. 2. Weekly Key Macroeconomic Logic Tracking and Asset Views Weekly Overseas Macroeconomic Highlights - The U.S. raid on Venezuela may increase crude oil volatility. Venezuela's current crude oil exports are 960,000 barrels per day, and its exports to China account for over 60% [11][13]. - U.S. weekly initial jobless claims were lower than expected, and continuing jobless claims decreased. The economic surprise index and hard - data surprise index rebounded [14][15][16]. Weekly Currency Group Scoring - Through the currency group scoring model, in the G10 currency group, the Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and Norwegian krone had relatively high comprehensive scores, while the euro and British pound had low scores. In the Asian currency group, the New Taiwan dollar, Philippine peso, Thai baht, and Indian rupee had high scores, and the CNY and CNH had short - term score differentiation [28][29][30]. FICC Asset Views - **Dollar**: In the short - term, it is expected to strengthen, with a target of 99 - 99.5. In the long - term, it will maintain a wide - range oscillation, with an annual oscillation range of 96 - 108, and there is an upward risk [31]. - **Non - U.S. Exchange Rates**: In the short - term, based on scoring, different currencies have different performances. In the long - term, the Japanese yen spot exchange rate is significantly undervalued [31]. - **USD/CNH**: In the short - term, the RMB has a seasonal strengthening trend, but the appreciation space is limited. In the long - term, the RMB is undervalued in the exchange - rate valuation model, and the annual low is expected to be in the range of 6.85 - 6.95, with a high of 7.20 [31]. - **10 - Year U.S. Treasury Yield**: In the short - term, it challenges the 4.20% short - term resistance level. If it breaks through, it can reach 4.30 - 4.35% technically. In the long - term, the central level is around 4.20%, with an upward risk [31]. - **2 - Year U.S. Treasury Yield**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the support level is around 3.20%, and the target is 3.68%. There is a risk of a "bear steepening" of the yield curve in the second half of the year [31]. - **London Gold Spot**: The Venezuela incident may stimulate safe - haven sentiment, which is beneficial to gold. After the holiday, the gold - silver ratio may continue to repair upwards [31]. - **London Silver Spot**: It is expected to build an oscillation platform at a high level first, waiting for a 20% increase later. The target in the first quarter of 2026 is 90 - 100 US dollars per ounce [31]. 3. Macroeconomic Data Hologram and Fundamental High - Frequency Data Real - Time Economic Momentum - It includes real - time GDP models, GDP sub - items, and sector economic surprise indices of the U.S., as well as economic surprise indices of the U.S., Europe, and China [192][196]. Financial Conditions - It involves the central bank's balance sheet and financial conditions index, including the Fed's balance sheet, G4 central banks' balance - sheet - to - GDP ratios, and financial conditions indices of the U.S. and the eurozone [200][203]. Fiscal Policy - It includes U.S. federal government fiscal expenditure and revenue sub - items, government debt issuance, and the government deficit - to - GDP ratio [208][213]. Employment Market - It tracks U.S. employment market data on a weekly and monthly basis, including non - farm payrolls, job vacancies, and unemployment claims [216][220]. Inflation Indicators - It analyzes U.S. inflation data, including inflation breakdown, core drivers, and inflation expectations [224][226][229]. Consumer Demand - It tracks U.S. consumer data on a weekly and monthly basis, including retail sales, consumer confidence, personal income, and household debt [233][240][247]. Cycle Positioning - It tracks industrial, manufacturing, and inventory cycle indicators, as well as U.S. wholesale, retail, and manufacturing inventories and inventory - to - sales ratios [255][264]. Credit Cycle - It tracks U.S. credit conditions, including corporate credit surveys and high - yield corporate credit spreads [268][270]. Transportation and Logistics - It tracks logistics data between China and the U.S., Europe and the U.S., as well as aviation, supply - chain indices, trucks, and shipping [272][277][279]. Real Estate Market - It includes the U.S. real - estate equity market, credit spreads, and commercial real - estate market data [287][292]. Eurozone - It includes macro - overviews, cycle positioning, and relative - strength analysis of the eurozone, such as deficit rates, inflation, and PMI indicators [297][305][314].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the securities industry, indicating an expected stock performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [9]. Core Insights - The public fund sales fee reform has been smoothly implemented, with a focus on benefiting investors and addressing market concerns. The reform is expected to save approximately 51 billion CNY in investment costs annually, with a comprehensive fee rate reduction of about 20% [5]. - The new rules on redemption fees have been established to protect market liquidity while benefiting investors. The differentiation in redemption fees is aimed at encouraging long-term investment practices [5]. - The classification of products and supporting policies have been upgraded to create a more refined fee rate regulatory system, promoting the development of index funds and equity funds [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of wealth management institutions' service capabilities in the context of the growing equity fund market, suggesting a focus on companies like Huatai Securities, CICC, Guotai Junan, and CITIC Securities [5]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued new regulations on public fund sales fees, effective from January 1, 2026, marking the completion of a three-phase fee reduction process [5]. - The third phase of the reform is projected to provide approximately 30 billion CNY in annual benefits to investors [5]. Product Classification - The new regulations simplify redemption fee structures into three tiers and allow flexible arrangements for different types of funds, particularly benefiting individual investors in index funds [5]. - The maximum subscription fee rates have been refined, with specific caps for different fund types, encouraging the growth of index funds [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the reforms and the anticipated growth in the equity fund market, including Huatai Securities (AH), CICC (H), Guotai Junan (AH), and CITIC Securities (AH) [5].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The lead market in 2026 is expected to experience a supply surplus and weak demand, leading to price fluctuations within a range of 16,000 to 18,000 yuan per ton. Seasonal factors may create temporary supply-demand gaps that could elevate prices [4]. Group 1: Market Inventory and Production - As of December 26, 2025, Shanghai lead futures inventory decreased by 780 tons to 27,095 tons [1]. - On January 2, 2026, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported registered lead warrants of 162,500 tons, with canceled warrants down by 6,025 tons to 76,825 tons, and total lead inventory reduced by 2,600 tons to 239,325 tons [1]. - A medium-sized recycled lead smelting enterprise in Southwest China plans to reduce production by 20%-30% in January due to ongoing raw material supply constraints [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is seeing a slight increase in ore and waste battery recovery, with refined lead production continuing to grow [4]. - Demand is supported by policies encouraging replacements, with positive growth in electric two-wheelers and potential increases in energy storage and lead-carbon batteries. However, exports of lead-acid batteries may decline due to high Shanghai-London price ratios, trade frictions, and tariffs in the Middle East [4]. - The overall assessment indicates a slight domestic surplus, with seasonal consumption expected to pressure prices after a minor uptick at the beginning of the year [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trading Recommendations - Recent reductions in recycled lead production are primarily due to raw material supply issues, compounded by environmental controls in East and North China [4]. - Downstream large manufacturers are experiencing weaker operations, attributed to the end-of-month accounting period, although there remains some buying activity in the spot market [4]. - The terminal demand is showing significant differentiation, with replacement demand affected by new national standards and automotive battery consumption entering a peak season, though the seasonal effect may not match previous years due to competition from lithium alternatives [4]. - Inventory levels are currently fluctuating downwards, with no significant short-term recovery expected, leading to limited upward potential for lead prices. A cautious trading approach is recommended [4].