Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - In October, the net financing of certificates of deposit (CDs) turned positive, and there was a phenomenon where primary market price increases led to a slight rise in secondary market interest rates. The increase in CD supply pressure in October may be due to the decline in the NSFR of some joint - stock banks and preparations for the "good start" at the beginning of next year [3][7][19]. - The pressure on the NSFR of joint - stock banks may have decreased with the significant increase in their net CD financing. The probability of a significant increase in the overall supply pressure of bank CDs this year, which could lead to a situation similar to that in Q1 where primary market price increases drive a sharp rise in secondary market interest rates, is relatively limited [4][43][45]. - In the baseline scenario, the central range of DR001 in November may be similar to that in October, remaining between 1.3% - 1.4%. Further decline in funding rates may require a policy rate cut [4][50]. - The central bank's resumption of bond purchases reflects that the current fundamental environment still requires monetary easing support. The central bank's interest - rate cut cycle is not over, and it is only a matter of time before the interest - rate cut is implemented. It is expected that the CD interest rate will fluctuate between 1.55% - 1.65% this year [4][52][53]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs I. Q3 CD Supply - Demand Environment was Favorable, and the Widening Spread with Funds may be Disturbed by the Rise in Short - Term Interest Rates - In 2025, CD interest rates first rose, then fell, and finally stabilized. After the interest - rate cut in May, the 1Y AAA - rated CD interest rate basically fluctuated within the range of 1.6% - 1.7% [7]. - From May to September, banks' liability pressure was relatively limited. Asset - side credit growth slowed down, and the liability - side funding was loose. The central bank increased medium - term liquidity injection, resulting in negative net CD financing [10]. - Since Q2, non - bank institutions' demand for CDs has remained high. The spread between CDs and funds has widened, which is related to the weakening of the central bank's "timely reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cut" statement and the rise in short - term policy - financial bond yields [12][14]. - CDs are more resilient than policy - financial bonds. In the current supply - demand environment, the 30BP spread between CDs and funds may be at the upper limit of the fluctuation range, and it may be difficult to break through the 1.7% high in September [18]. II. The Increase in the Net Financing of Joint - Stock Bank CDs in October may be Affected by the Decline in NSFR and Preparations for the "Good Start" - In October, the net financing of CDs turned positive again, especially for joint - stock banks. From the perspective of asset - liability matching, commercial banks may not have significant liability pressure [19][20]. - The view that banks increase CD issuance at the end of the year to preserve next year's issuance quota may not be the main reason for the increase in CD issuance scale [23]. - Although the central bank's monetary policy tools were tilted towards large - scale banks in Q3, from the overall asset - liability perspective, the liability gap of small and medium - sized banks was not significantly higher than that of large - scale banks [31][33]. - In Q3, the NSFR of large - scale banks improved, while that of joint - stock banks declined. The decline in the NSFR of some joint - stock banks may be an important reason for the increase in their CD issuance scale in October. Some banks with relatively stable NSFR indicators may also be preparing for the "good start" at the beginning of next year [35][36]. III. The Decline in the NSFR of Joint - Stock Banks may be Affected by Deposit Migration and Increased Bond Investment, but the Related Pressure may have Gradually Eased after October - The increase in the NSFR of large - scale banks is due to the decline in the growth rate of required stable funds and the increase in the growth rate of available stable funds, which is related to the change in deposit structure [38]. - For small and medium - sized banks, the growth rate of required stable funds increased, while the growth rate of available stable funds decreased. Deposit migration may have reduced their liability costs but also put pressure on their NSFR [40]. - With the significant increase in the net CD financing of joint - stock banks, the pressure on their NSFR may have decreased, which is reflected in the increase in their reverse - repurchase scale [43]. - It is expected that the net financing scale of government bonds in November will rise but still be lower than that in the first three quarters. The central bank's possible purchase of treasury bonds is beneficial to the alleviation of bank liability pressure and the improvement of NSFR [45]. IV. CD Interest Rates may Remain Volatile and Decline at the End of the Year, with a Slight Downward Shift in the Central Range - In October, the spreads between DR001, DR007, and OMO reached new lows, and the funding volatility remained low. The current funding relaxation is the central bank's response to the fundamental environment [46]. - DR001 still has 10BP of downward space, but even if the lower limit drops to 1.2%, its central range may not decline significantly, and the volatility may increase. In the baseline scenario, the central range of DR001 will remain between 1.3% - 1.4% [50]. - The central bank's resumption of bond purchases reflects the need for monetary easing. Although there is uncertainty about the timing of the interest - rate cut, it is expected that the CD interest rate will fluctuate between 1.55% - 1.65% this year [4][52][53].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in the number of properties directly sold by banks, with some properties being offered at prices 25% lower than market value, indicating a shift in asset disposal strategies by financial institutions [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Several banks, including Agricultural Bank, China Construction Bank, and Bank of Communications, are accelerating their direct property sales through online platforms, with some banks listing over a thousand properties for sale [1] - The properties being sold are primarily derived from the disposal of non-performing loans, where banks acquire full ownership after borrowers default [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The acceleration in property disposals by banks aims to enhance debt recovery rates during a period of adjustment in the real estate market, making direct sales a new strategy for banks to quickly liquidate assets [1]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term deposit products, once considered a "stabilizing force" for investors, are gradually disappearing from the shelves of some banks, indicating a profound restructuring of the banking industry's profit logic in response to deepening interest rate marketization and a low-interest environment [1][4][8]. Group 1: Disappearance of Long-term Deposits - As of November 9, major state-owned banks and some joint-stock banks have removed 5-year large certificates of deposit (CDs) from their offerings, with banks like ICBC, ABC, and BOC no longer listing these products [2][3]. - The interest rates for commonly available 3-year large CDs are now between 1.5% and 1.75%, with some banks facing a "one order hard to find" situation due to limited availability [2][3]. - Regional banks are also tightening their long-term CD offerings, with many now focusing on shorter terms such as 1 month, 3 months, and 1 year [3][5]. Group 2: Strategic Shift in Banking - The current low net interest margin has prompted banks to lower their liability costs to maintain stable profit levels, leading to the reduction or cancellation of high-interest long-term CDs [4][7]. - Smaller banks, particularly village banks, are also halting long-term deposit products, reflecting a broader industry trend towards optimizing balance sheets in response to regulatory pressures and changing market conditions [5][7]. - The traditional banking model of high-interest deposits and low-interest loans is facing unprecedented challenges, with net interest margins dropping to historical lows [8][9]. Group 3: Future Directions - The banking sector is expected to increasingly favor short-term adjustments and flexible combinations of various financial products to enhance customer loyalty and stabilize relationships [9]. - Banks are likely to optimize their liability structures by offering more medium- and short-term deposit products, reducing the proportion of high-cost deposits, and improving overall profitability through wealth management services [9].

Core Insights - Banks are accelerating direct property sales to enhance debt recovery rates, particularly during the real estate market adjustment period [1][8] - The properties being sold directly by banks primarily originate from the disposal of non-performing loans [3][8] - The trend of "bank direct supply housing" is gaining traction, with multiple banks listing thousands of properties for sale [2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent transactions show properties valued at approximately 2 million yuan being sold for as low as 1.5 million yuan, indicating significant discounts [1] - Major banks, including Agricultural Bank, Construction Bank, and Transportation Bank, are actively engaging in direct property sales through online platforms [2] - The scale of property listings is particularly notable among local city commercial banks and rural credit cooperatives, with some banks listing over 2,000 properties [3] Group 2: Sales Strategy - Banks are adopting a pricing strategy that often results in properties being sold below market value to expedite asset liquidation [5] - Properties are typically sold at prices lower than those of second-hand homes, with some properties experiencing multiple price reductions after failed auctions [5] - In addition to direct sales, some banks are exploring leasing options to activate assets, with clear property rights reducing transaction risks [6] Group 3: Underlying Factors - The acceleration in direct property sales is driven by the need to improve debt recovery rates, as traditional methods can take over two years [8] - The cooling of the judicial auction market has prompted banks to shift towards direct property disposal, as evidenced by declining auction success rates [9] - The overall increase in non-performing loans, particularly in personal business loans, is influencing banks to adopt a dual strategy of traditional and direct sales [8][9]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Insights - Agricultural Bank's performance in the gold market has been outstanding this year, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 2.0% in the first three quarters, leading the four major banks in net non-interest income growth at 31.7% [12][15] - The bank's financial assets have shown significant gains from fair value changes, particularly during the first quarter when the bond market faced substantial declines, achieving a floating profit of 39 billion [16][17] - The bank's strategy of maintaining a low proportion of TPL accounts (below 4%) and cautious trading strategies during market adjustments has contributed to its strong performance [18][19] Summary by Sections 1. Performance in the Gold Market - Agricultural Bank's net non-interest income growth of 31.7% in 2025 Q1-Q3 is the highest among the four major banks, with a notable increase of 45.3% in Q1 despite negative growth in other banks [15][18] - The bank achieved a floating profit of 85 billion from financial investments due to fair value changes, outperforming its peers [17][18] 2. Factors Contributing to Strong Performance - The low proportion of TPL accounts and limited incremental growth in bond assets have minimized the impact of market adjustments on the bank's earnings [19][20] - The bank's strategy to control duration in TPL account bond assets has helped mitigate risks during market volatility, although it resulted in lower floating profits in Q2 [23][24] - The timing of bond asset allocations, particularly during high interest rates in February, has allowed the bank to maintain a low cost of holdings [25][26] 3. Outlook for Future Performance - With the central bank restarting government bond trading, there is an expectation of a recovery in capital gains for the bank's gold market business in Q4, although the low trading volume and duration strategy may limit floating profit growth [29][30] - The bank's reasonable classification of I9 accounts and duration management align with current and future market conditions, providing a foundation for potential outperformance [31][32] - As the year-end approaches, there may be incentives for the bank to realize floating profits through the sale of old bonds, as indicated by an increase in investment income contribution to revenue [32][33]

Core Viewpoint - The eighth China International Import Expo is being held at the National Exhibition and Convention Center in Shanghai, with several bank presidents attending and delivering speeches [1] Group 1: Bank Leadership - The presidents of major banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and Bank of Communications, participated in the expo's thematic activities [1] - Liu Jun, Wang Zhiheng, Zhang Hui, and Zhang Baojiang represented their respective banks at the event [1]

Group 1 - The 8th China International Import Expo is being held at the National Exhibition and Convention Center in Shanghai, with leaders from major banks in attendance [1] - Liu Jun, President of ICBC, emphasized that the current technological revolution led by artificial intelligence is reshaping the global economic landscape, and that monopolies are not a key term in this era [2] - Wang Zhiheng, President of Agricultural Bank of China, highlighted the importance of open cooperation in agriculture and proposed three suggestions to enhance international agricultural trade [3] Group 2 - Zhang Hui, President of Bank of China, stated that talent is the core key to globalization, and that financial support is essential for Chinese enterprises going global [4] - Zhang Baojiang, President of Bank of Communications, discussed the role of financial services in promoting cultural tourism and its importance in stabilizing economic growth [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - This is a weekly data tracking report on secondary capital bonds from November 3, 2025, to November 7, 2025, covering primary market issuance, secondary market trading, and valuation deviation of individual bonds [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Primary Market Issuance - Two secondary capital bonds were newly issued in the inter - bank and exchange markets, with a total issuance scale of 15 billion yuan. The issuance term is 10 years, the issuers are subsidiaries of central enterprises and local state - owned enterprises, the issuer ratings are AAA, and the issuer regions are Guangdong and Shandong provinces [1][6] Secondary Market Trading - **Trading Volume**: The weekly trading volume of secondary capital bonds was approximately 186 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.8 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The top three bonds in terms of trading volume were 25 Agricultural Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 03A(BC) (16.084 billion yuan), 25 Agricultural Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 03B(BC) (10.937 billion yuan), and 25 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 01BC (5.996 billion yuan). By issuer region, the top three in trading volume were Beijing (about 140.8 billion yuan), Shanghai (about 11.6 billion yuan), and Fujian (about 8.6 billion yuan) [2] - **Yield to Maturity**: As of November 7, for 5Y secondary capital bonds, the yield - to - maturity changes of ratings AAA-, AA+, and AA compared to the previous week were 4.16BP, 3.24BP, and 3.24BP respectively; for 7Y bonds, they were 1.30BP, - 0.08BP, and - 0.08BP respectively; for 10Y bonds, they were 0.64BP, 0.64BP, and 0.64BP respectively [2][11] Valuation Deviation of Top 30 Individual Bonds - **Discount Bonds**: The top three discount bonds were 21 Jiutai Rural Commercial Secondary (-48.9752%), 22 Jiangshan Rural Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (-0.4149%), and 24 Longwan Rural Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (-0.3907%). The Zhongzheng implied ratings were mainly AA+, AA-, and A+, and the regional distribution was mostly in Tianjin, Guangdong, and Shanghai [3][14] - **Premium Bonds**: The top three premium bonds were 24 Qingdao Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (0.5969%), 23 Chouzhou Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (0.5512%), and 25 Jinshang Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (0.4984%). The Zhongzheng implied ratings were mainly AAA-, AA+, and AA, and the regional distribution was mostly in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong [3][15]

Core Viewpoint - The annual Double Eleven shopping season has officially started, with major commercial banks launching various promotional activities to stimulate consumer spending and boost business before the year-end [1][2]. Group 1: Promotional Activities by Banks - Major banks such as China Construction Bank, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and others have introduced cashback, discounts, installment benefits, and exclusive offers to attract consumers [1]. - Construction Bank offers a maximum discount of 400 yuan for credit card customers using installment payments on platforms like Alipay and Taobao, while Bank of China provides a random discount of up to 118 yuan for transactions made through Alipay [2]. - Other banks, including China Merchants Bank and Ping An Bank, have also launched various cashback and discount campaigns to engage customers during this shopping season [2]. Group 2: Strategic Insights - Experts suggest that the banks' promotional strategies represent a cost-effective method to acquire and retain customers, activating dormant accounts with low-cost random discounts [5]. - The focus on marketing during peak shopping seasons aims to enhance the usage of bank cards over third-party payment channels, thereby driving growth in credit and debit card transactions [5]. - Recommendations for banks post-Double Eleven include offering temporary credit limit increases and integrating with government consumption voucher programs to enhance customer experience and engagement [5].

Core Insights - The total assets of 42 A-share listed banks exceeded 326 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.3%, indicating a steady but slightly declining growth rate [1][2] - Net interest margins show signs of stabilization, supported by improved liability costs, which provide a key support for profitability [1][4] - Asset quality remains solid, with non-performing loan ratios stable, although there is a divergence in asset quality between retail and corporate sectors [1][11] Asset Growth - The asset growth rate of listed banks has slowed compared to previous years, with a year-on-year increase of 9.3% as of Q3 2025, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the first half of the year [2][4] - The overall expansion of assets remains robust, with specific banks like Jiangsu Bank and Ningbo Bank showing significant growth rates of 27.76% and 16.65% respectively [3] Profitability and Revenue - The total operating income of listed banks exceeded 4.3 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, with over 60% of banks reporting positive revenue growth [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders surpassed 1.6 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 1.5% [4] - Analysts indicate that stable net interest margins and reduced provisions are the main drivers of profit growth, while other non-interest income has weakened [5] Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin for listed banks increased by 0.3 basis points to 1.37% in Q3 2025, with asset yield decreasing by 7 basis points and liability cost decreasing by 8 basis points [6][8] - The performance of net interest margins varies among different types of banks, with joint-stock banks and city commercial banks showing better-than-expected rebounds [8][10] Asset Quality - The overall asset quality of listed banks remains stable, with non-performing loan ratios holding steady, although retail risks are showing volatility while corporate non-performing loans continue to improve [11][13] - The average provision coverage ratio for the 42 banks is 283.2%, with city commercial banks and rural commercial banks maintaining coverage ratios above 300% [13]